Wake me when it's time for Football NBA playoffs! Stanley Cup! Baseball!
Yawn. Just things to pass the time until football starts.
And to help pass the time here is a great article on former college nicknames. Names that teams used to have before their current ones. Nice to have the Rainbow Warriors back Bruce likes to tell the story how Northwestern students voted to change their nickname to the Purple Haze back in the 70’s. It got nixed. Too bad. Go Haze!
And here is a Big Ten Youtube on the 2012 season highlights- Rites of Autumn Caution – a couple of MSU heartbreakers.
Vegas is always looking to keep NFL betting going even during the offseason and mini camps. Over the last couple of weeks they released revised odds to win the Super Bowl and one of my favorites – opening lines on every game
except bizzaro world Week 17.
Of course, the Doofus pretended to be working away during staff meetings while in reality – loading in the spreads for all the games. And here they are for your perusal and contemplation -
Yawn. Just things to pass the time until football starts.
And to help pass the time here is a great article on former college nicknames. Names that teams used to have before their current ones. Nice to have the Rainbow Warriors back Bruce likes to tell the story how Northwestern students voted to change their nickname to the Purple Haze back in the 70’s. It got nixed. Too bad. Go Haze!
And here is a Big Ten Youtube on the 2012 season highlights- Rites of Autumn Caution – a couple of MSU heartbreakers.
Vegas is always looking to keep NFL betting going even during the offseason and mini camps. Over the last couple of weeks they released revised odds to win the Super Bowl and one of my favorites – opening lines on every game
except bizzaro world Week 17.
Of course, the Doofus pretended to be working away during staff meetings while in reality – loading in the spreads for all the games. And here they are for your perusal and contemplation -
| 2013 NFL Bettors Guide.xls |
And when comparing the 2013 win total over/unders; 2012 records; 2013 weekly spreads and odds to win next years Super Bowl some intererting things pop out
Some observations – teams expected to have big drop offs include the Falcons (3 less wins), Minnesota (3), Indy (2.5) and Denver (2). Meanwhile, Vegas is expecting much better seasons from Kansas City (4.5 more wins), Detroit
(3.5), Philly (3) and Jacksonville (3).
And comparing win totals to the odds to win the Super Bowl – Atlanta and Seattle are both expected to win 10 games but the Falcons are 16/1 to win it all while Seattle is a much shorter 7/1.
But the real puzzlers are when you compare win totals to games that teams are favored to win. For instance – Jacksonville is not favored to win a single game this year– not one! There are two forecasted pushes. If you assume
that a push is worth ½ a game then the expected win total is 1. Compare that to the 5 games for the over/under win total.
On the flip side Seattle is favored in 13.5 games while the over/under total is a mere 10.0. Seems as though there is some kind of arbitrage opportunity in there somewhere. But I’m too far into some Jameson’s to figure that one out.
Here’s what Marc Lawrence at vegasinsider.com wrote about the 2013 win total over/unders -
Colts Under 8
Indy ran into all sorts of good 'luck' last season winning 9 of their 11 games by a touchdown or less, including 7 victories by four or less points. A nine-game improvement from a two-win team in 2011 far exceeded
expectations. Expect a combination of sophomore blues by Andrew Luck and a serious bounce to leave the Colts losers in 2013.
Lions Over 7
An 8-game season ending losing skid left the Motor City men far short of last year's 9.5-win total. Fortunately that's what fans will remember most. The fact of the matter is despite going 4-12 on the scoreboard the Lions went 12-4 In The Stats, outgaining 12 foes on the playing field. Plenty of room for improvement by gunslinger Matthew Stafford and company this season.
Seahawks Under 11
The darlings of the 2012 season, the Seahawks improved a full 5-games last season behind the surprise of the draft, QB Russell Wilson. A closer look shows three wins by a total of 7-points with another coming in overtime. No surprise to find another dose of sophomore blues for Wilson, especially after taking on the 2nd most difficult road schedule in the loop in 2013.
Redskins Under 9
Like the Seahawks, the Redskins improved a full 5-games behind a rookie quarterback last season. Main difference, though, is RG3's knee is a major question mark and the Hogs haven't had back-to-back winning seasons since
1991-92. And down goes another sophomore QB from last year's heralded class.
And from Brian Edwards at the same site:
Jaguars Under 5
I find it audacious and incomprehensible that Jacksonville is going into another season with Blaine Gabbert as its starting QB, assuming he beats out Chad Henne. I’m bullish on ‘under’ five wins for this team that has no
shot at success with such a horrible situation at QB.
Me - I'm a homer so I'll take the Lions over 7. And I'll have to take Atlanta over 10 so as to keep the peace on the Doofus Deck.
I also think the Jags will go under 5. They are awful at QB and did nothing in the draft or offseason to help. Sure they took OT Luke Joeckel as their #1 pick but all that means is that Blaine Gabbert will have more time to find a DB to throw to.
And no way are both San Francisco and Seattle going to win over 10 games in the season. One will have to succomb. Might as well be Seattle. Harbaugh out coached Pete Carrol in the PAC 12 and will continue to do so in the NFL.
Next time Joe heads up to Vegas I'll have him drop a few quatloos on those picks.
Remember - GO JUMBO weekend is Oct 26 at the LVH. I've already made my arrangements as have Pete and Pat. Come on down and join the fun.
(3.5), Philly (3) and Jacksonville (3).
And comparing win totals to the odds to win the Super Bowl – Atlanta and Seattle are both expected to win 10 games but the Falcons are 16/1 to win it all while Seattle is a much shorter 7/1.
But the real puzzlers are when you compare win totals to games that teams are favored to win. For instance – Jacksonville is not favored to win a single game this year– not one! There are two forecasted pushes. If you assume
that a push is worth ½ a game then the expected win total is 1. Compare that to the 5 games for the over/under win total.
On the flip side Seattle is favored in 13.5 games while the over/under total is a mere 10.0. Seems as though there is some kind of arbitrage opportunity in there somewhere. But I’m too far into some Jameson’s to figure that one out.
Here’s what Marc Lawrence at vegasinsider.com wrote about the 2013 win total over/unders -
Colts Under 8
Indy ran into all sorts of good 'luck' last season winning 9 of their 11 games by a touchdown or less, including 7 victories by four or less points. A nine-game improvement from a two-win team in 2011 far exceeded
expectations. Expect a combination of sophomore blues by Andrew Luck and a serious bounce to leave the Colts losers in 2013.
Lions Over 7
An 8-game season ending losing skid left the Motor City men far short of last year's 9.5-win total. Fortunately that's what fans will remember most. The fact of the matter is despite going 4-12 on the scoreboard the Lions went 12-4 In The Stats, outgaining 12 foes on the playing field. Plenty of room for improvement by gunslinger Matthew Stafford and company this season.
Seahawks Under 11
The darlings of the 2012 season, the Seahawks improved a full 5-games last season behind the surprise of the draft, QB Russell Wilson. A closer look shows three wins by a total of 7-points with another coming in overtime. No surprise to find another dose of sophomore blues for Wilson, especially after taking on the 2nd most difficult road schedule in the loop in 2013.
Redskins Under 9
Like the Seahawks, the Redskins improved a full 5-games behind a rookie quarterback last season. Main difference, though, is RG3's knee is a major question mark and the Hogs haven't had back-to-back winning seasons since
1991-92. And down goes another sophomore QB from last year's heralded class.
And from Brian Edwards at the same site:
Jaguars Under 5
I find it audacious and incomprehensible that Jacksonville is going into another season with Blaine Gabbert as its starting QB, assuming he beats out Chad Henne. I’m bullish on ‘under’ five wins for this team that has no
shot at success with such a horrible situation at QB.
Me - I'm a homer so I'll take the Lions over 7. And I'll have to take Atlanta over 10 so as to keep the peace on the Doofus Deck.
I also think the Jags will go under 5. They are awful at QB and did nothing in the draft or offseason to help. Sure they took OT Luke Joeckel as their #1 pick but all that means is that Blaine Gabbert will have more time to find a DB to throw to.
And no way are both San Francisco and Seattle going to win over 10 games in the season. One will have to succomb. Might as well be Seattle. Harbaugh out coached Pete Carrol in the PAC 12 and will continue to do so in the NFL.
Next time Joe heads up to Vegas I'll have him drop a few quatloos on those picks.
Remember - GO JUMBO weekend is Oct 26 at the LVH. I've already made my arrangements as have Pete and Pat. Come on down and join the fun.
