
Mike texted Mrs. Doofus to see if she had read the The Doofus goes to
the 100th Rose Bowl post. Hey Mike, Mrs. Doofus never reads the Big Book of Guesses! If she started reading it, it might put the sphincter on the Doofus Deck parties.
She had previously allowed a Doofus Deck party for Saturday. Now it might be in jeopardy. So I texted her
- Have you read it?
- Yes
- Did you like it?
- It was fairly accurate
- Can I still have my party?
- Yes
Phew, close one. So the party is on Saturday!!
But Mike, just for that I'm telling Louise that your are sneaking cigars again
I lost only my second Mega Bet since the Bowl season and NFL playoffs started with:
San Francisco vs Green Bay over 46.0 - I went against the trend last week in that overs have gone 2-10 against the spread since 2010. I took and over and it bit me. In bitterly cold conditions on the Refrozen Tundra, the Niners and Packers played in a slugfest. In the first quarter, the Niners twice had first and goal inside the 10 to only come away with FGs. Not a good start to an over.
The scoring opened up again in the second quarter as the teams combined for two TDs and a FG leaving the score 13-10 San Fran. The Sax Man texted that the over was not looking good. Actually, I was exactly half way there and the teams were opening up. I was concerned but not overly worried.
That is until there were no points scored in the third quarter. Now I was getting way behind the number.
The teams traded TDs on the opening drives in the fourth quarter to put the over back in play. This was going to be an interesting game. The score was now 20-17 Niners. I needed only 10 more points in the last ten minutes to win.
Green Bay had a first and goal again with five minutes left but only notched a FG. Crap – score a TD dammit. At least the score was tied though. As long as someone doesn’ t kick a walk off FG I still have a chance in OT.
Which meant, of course, the San Francisco goes on a beautiful time crunching drive. The killer was a 3rd and 3 at the Green Bay 20 with just under a minute left. If the Pack could hold, the Niners would likely kick a FG to get the lead but Green Bay would have a chance to tie and send it into OT or score a TD to win it and I’ll get the over. Hold Pack Hold!!
They didn’t. Frank Gore got the first down. The Niners run out the clock and kick the walk off FG to win it 23-20. LOSS
Crap – just needed one of those 3 first and goal FGs to be a TD and I would have gotten the over. But that’s why it’s chancy to buck the trend. Funny thing is – the overs are 10-2 in the Divisional round of play since 2010. Maybe I was just a week early. And by the way the unders kept up the trend in the First round of play as they went 3-1 last week.
the 100th Rose Bowl post. Hey Mike, Mrs. Doofus never reads the Big Book of Guesses! If she started reading it, it might put the sphincter on the Doofus Deck parties.
She had previously allowed a Doofus Deck party for Saturday. Now it might be in jeopardy. So I texted her
- Have you read it?
- Yes
- Did you like it?
- It was fairly accurate
- Can I still have my party?
- Yes
Phew, close one. So the party is on Saturday!!
But Mike, just for that I'm telling Louise that your are sneaking cigars again
I lost only my second Mega Bet since the Bowl season and NFL playoffs started with:
San Francisco vs Green Bay over 46.0 - I went against the trend last week in that overs have gone 2-10 against the spread since 2010. I took and over and it bit me. In bitterly cold conditions on the Refrozen Tundra, the Niners and Packers played in a slugfest. In the first quarter, the Niners twice had first and goal inside the 10 to only come away with FGs. Not a good start to an over.
The scoring opened up again in the second quarter as the teams combined for two TDs and a FG leaving the score 13-10 San Fran. The Sax Man texted that the over was not looking good. Actually, I was exactly half way there and the teams were opening up. I was concerned but not overly worried.
That is until there were no points scored in the third quarter. Now I was getting way behind the number.
The teams traded TDs on the opening drives in the fourth quarter to put the over back in play. This was going to be an interesting game. The score was now 20-17 Niners. I needed only 10 more points in the last ten minutes to win.
Green Bay had a first and goal again with five minutes left but only notched a FG. Crap – score a TD dammit. At least the score was tied though. As long as someone doesn’ t kick a walk off FG I still have a chance in OT.
Which meant, of course, the San Francisco goes on a beautiful time crunching drive. The killer was a 3rd and 3 at the Green Bay 20 with just under a minute left. If the Pack could hold, the Niners would likely kick a FG to get the lead but Green Bay would have a chance to tie and send it into OT or score a TD to win it and I’ll get the over. Hold Pack Hold!!
They didn’t. Frank Gore got the first down. The Niners run out the clock and kick the walk off FG to win it 23-20. LOSS
Crap – just needed one of those 3 first and goal FGs to be a TD and I would have gotten the over. But that’s why it’s chancy to buck the trend. Funny thing is – the overs are 10-2 in the Divisional round of play since 2010. Maybe I was just a week early. And by the way the unders kept up the trend in the First round of play as they went 3-1 last week.

This week I’ll go with:
Seattle -7.5 vs New Orleans – I may be going against the trend here. When two teams (not in the same division) play each other in a rematch in the playoffs – the favorite is 13-26 against the spread. But there are other trends that offset that one.
Seattle is 12-4 at home ATS with Russell Wilson under center. And with New Orleans’ win over Philly last week, not only was that their first win ever on the road in the playoffs, it was the first time they ever covered the spread.
Another stat – The number #1 seed (that would be Seattle this year) in the NFC has gone 22-8-1 ATS when favored by 6 or more points since the bye week was introduced way back in 1970. Lots of conflicting stats.
So looking deeper – the knock on Drew Brees was that he is not good on the road. He won last week – so he must have had a good outing right?
Not really. Brees was 20-30, 250 yards with 1 TD and 2 picks. Not exactly earth shattering. And that was against a putrid Philly secondary. Brees really struggled back in week 13 against Seattle. He was 23-38 and a meager 147 yards, a pick and a fumble. No wonder they were blown out 34-7.
Meanwhile, Seattle gets back Percy Harvin who has been out since week 17. If Saints DB Keenan Lewis sits this one out after getting his bell ring against Philly, Harvin could go nuts.
Russell Wilson sure went nuts the last time these two met. He went 22-30 340 yards and 3 TDs.
I don’t expect either QB to have a good outing Saturday – the weather is going to be awful with winds of 20-30 MPH and 80% chance of showers. Brees really struggles outdoors
Expect to see a lot of Marshawn Lynch as the Seahawks grind out a double digit win.
San Diego +9.0 @ Denver – This spread is just way too big. Everyone expects Peyton Manning to just go off in this game. So how good is Manning anyway? He is 4-11 ATS in the playoffs when playing a decent QB. I’ll have to admit – Rivers turned into a decent QB this year. In fact, Rivers is 29-18 ATS in games after Nov 30th.
Much has also been made of the fact that WR Wes Walker returns to the Denver line up. Yeah, but they have also lost LB Von Miller. With the conditions expected to be very windy (12-17 MPH gusts and 80% chance of rain too) getting Walker back will matter less than losing your stud LB.
Beats me why the spread is 9.0. San Diego has only lost one game by more than 9 all year – a 26-16 loss to Oakland back on Oct 6th. The Bolts are playing much better now behind a much improved defense. They improved from 28th to 15th over the last month of the season (against some pretty good attacks – Denver, KC, Cincy). More importantly, the run defense went from 27th to 4th over the same time period, In lousy conditions, the run defense could be the key.
I’ll take San Diego to keep this one close in Mile High.
Seattle -7.5 vs New Orleans – I may be going against the trend here. When two teams (not in the same division) play each other in a rematch in the playoffs – the favorite is 13-26 against the spread. But there are other trends that offset that one.
Seattle is 12-4 at home ATS with Russell Wilson under center. And with New Orleans’ win over Philly last week, not only was that their first win ever on the road in the playoffs, it was the first time they ever covered the spread.
Another stat – The number #1 seed (that would be Seattle this year) in the NFC has gone 22-8-1 ATS when favored by 6 or more points since the bye week was introduced way back in 1970. Lots of conflicting stats.
So looking deeper – the knock on Drew Brees was that he is not good on the road. He won last week – so he must have had a good outing right?
Not really. Brees was 20-30, 250 yards with 1 TD and 2 picks. Not exactly earth shattering. And that was against a putrid Philly secondary. Brees really struggled back in week 13 against Seattle. He was 23-38 and a meager 147 yards, a pick and a fumble. No wonder they were blown out 34-7.
Meanwhile, Seattle gets back Percy Harvin who has been out since week 17. If Saints DB Keenan Lewis sits this one out after getting his bell ring against Philly, Harvin could go nuts.
Russell Wilson sure went nuts the last time these two met. He went 22-30 340 yards and 3 TDs.
I don’t expect either QB to have a good outing Saturday – the weather is going to be awful with winds of 20-30 MPH and 80% chance of showers. Brees really struggles outdoors
Expect to see a lot of Marshawn Lynch as the Seahawks grind out a double digit win.
San Diego +9.0 @ Denver – This spread is just way too big. Everyone expects Peyton Manning to just go off in this game. So how good is Manning anyway? He is 4-11 ATS in the playoffs when playing a decent QB. I’ll have to admit – Rivers turned into a decent QB this year. In fact, Rivers is 29-18 ATS in games after Nov 30th.
Much has also been made of the fact that WR Wes Walker returns to the Denver line up. Yeah, but they have also lost LB Von Miller. With the conditions expected to be very windy (12-17 MPH gusts and 80% chance of rain too) getting Walker back will matter less than losing your stud LB.
Beats me why the spread is 9.0. San Diego has only lost one game by more than 9 all year – a 26-16 loss to Oakland back on Oct 6th. The Bolts are playing much better now behind a much improved defense. They improved from 28th to 15th over the last month of the season (against some pretty good attacks – Denver, KC, Cincy). More importantly, the run defense went from 27th to 4th over the same time period, In lousy conditions, the run defense could be the key.
I’ll take San Diego to keep this one close in Mile High.