Flacco takes it to another level during the playoffs The NFL will dominate the TV throughtout the weekend as there are eight teams left playing four games- two on Saturday and two more on Sunday. Sounds like a great way to spend a chilly weekend.
The games start at 4:30 on Saturday with
Ravens +7.0 vs New England – Baltimore just seems to have New England’s number. This is the fourth time that Baltimore and New England have faced each other in the playoffs since 2010 and Baltimore is 2-1 against the Pats, 3-0 ATS.
In fact, while New England is 15-4 in the playoffs two of those losses have come to the Ravens.
It could be because Joe Flacco plays his best ball during the post season. Since 2011, (the year Torrey Smith, the king of drawing pass interference calls arrived) Flacco is 6-1 in the playoffs with the lone loss being the 2011 AFC championship game to New England. In 2012, Flacco won it all throwing an amazing 17 TDs with 0 interceptions.
All time, after beating Pittsburgh on the road last week, Flacco has seven road playoff wins, the most since the 1970 merger.
Patriot fans counter that in the last two playoff games against Baltimore, star TE Rob Gronowski was either hurt or out entirely. Well, during the season, Baltimore limited tight ends to 5 TDs and none a 100 yard game. They should limit Gronk.
The Ravens secondary is a problem allowing a quarterback rating of 90.6, worst of the remaining playoff teams. But will Brady have time to exploit it? In the near loss to the Jets and loss to the Bills to end the season, Brady was under constant pressure all game due to a leaky offensive line. Baltimore’s Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata will keep the pressure on.
Flacco will have more problems with the Patriots now that they have Derell Revis roaming the secondary. But I think a couple of timely pass interference call for Torrey Smith will keep the chains moving at critical times.
A couple trends favor the Ravens in this contest. Since 2003, visitors in the Divisional Playoff round are 24-17-1 ATS. Also, visiting teams coming off a road victory (aka Ravens) are 13-3 ATS in the playoffs.
I’m still too afraid of Brady going off now that the chatter is how he struggles against Baltimore so I won’t lay a mega on this game but I will put down a mini mega on Baltimore.
Then Saturday at 8:30 we have
The games start at 4:30 on Saturday with
Ravens +7.0 vs New England – Baltimore just seems to have New England’s number. This is the fourth time that Baltimore and New England have faced each other in the playoffs since 2010 and Baltimore is 2-1 against the Pats, 3-0 ATS.
In fact, while New England is 15-4 in the playoffs two of those losses have come to the Ravens.
It could be because Joe Flacco plays his best ball during the post season. Since 2011, (the year Torrey Smith, the king of drawing pass interference calls arrived) Flacco is 6-1 in the playoffs with the lone loss being the 2011 AFC championship game to New England. In 2012, Flacco won it all throwing an amazing 17 TDs with 0 interceptions.
All time, after beating Pittsburgh on the road last week, Flacco has seven road playoff wins, the most since the 1970 merger.
Patriot fans counter that in the last two playoff games against Baltimore, star TE Rob Gronowski was either hurt or out entirely. Well, during the season, Baltimore limited tight ends to 5 TDs and none a 100 yard game. They should limit Gronk.
The Ravens secondary is a problem allowing a quarterback rating of 90.6, worst of the remaining playoff teams. But will Brady have time to exploit it? In the near loss to the Jets and loss to the Bills to end the season, Brady was under constant pressure all game due to a leaky offensive line. Baltimore’s Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata will keep the pressure on.
Flacco will have more problems with the Patriots now that they have Derell Revis roaming the secondary. But I think a couple of timely pass interference call for Torrey Smith will keep the chains moving at critical times.
A couple trends favor the Ravens in this contest. Since 2003, visitors in the Divisional Playoff round are 24-17-1 ATS. Also, visiting teams coming off a road victory (aka Ravens) are 13-3 ATS in the playoffs.
I’m still too afraid of Brady going off now that the chatter is how he struggles against Baltimore so I won’t lay a mega on this game but I will put down a mini mega on Baltimore.
Then Saturday at 8:30 we have
Defense rules when these two teams play Seattle -11.5 vs Carolina – Two of the hottest teams in the league face off in the Great Northwest. Carolina is on a five game winning streak while Seattle has won six in a row.
It’s the defenses that got these teams going. Seattle had the number one defense in the league this year and has not allowed more than 14 points in two months. Carolina has not allowed more than 17 points during the win streak and last week, Carolina allowed the fewest yards ever in a playoff game when the limited Arizona to 78 total yards.
The last four times these teams met the under has been the way to go. The scores were
2012 Seattle 16 Carolina 12
2013 Seattle 12 Carolina 7
2014 Seattle 13 Carolina 9
And, of the 28 points the Panthers scored, 9 were by the defense.
So with such low scoring games why such a large spread? Mainly because the Panthers winning streak took off when Cam Newton got healthy again. But last week he got dinged up and was limping bad. And when Newton is hurt he sucks. He was 18 for 32 and Carolina went 5 for 15 on third downs. They also turned it over 3 times. Seattle will be able to contain a limping Newton since they face a healthy Russell Wilson in practice each week (and Kaepernick twice a year.)
Carolina will also be without DT Star Lotulelie. He will be sorely missed when Marshawn Lynch gets going. Seattle also returns all pro center Max Unger who will open some holes.
And all those previous games? They were held in Carolina. Carolina is about to fact the raucous 12th man.
The trends also favor Seattle. During the six game win streak, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS and for that large spread? Home teams laying 10+ points in the playoffs are 7-4 ATS, 7-1 if you exclude the Patriots.
I’ll lay a Mega on the Seahawks and a mini Mega on the under 40.0
On Sunday, the games start at 1:00 with
It’s the defenses that got these teams going. Seattle had the number one defense in the league this year and has not allowed more than 14 points in two months. Carolina has not allowed more than 17 points during the win streak and last week, Carolina allowed the fewest yards ever in a playoff game when the limited Arizona to 78 total yards.
The last four times these teams met the under has been the way to go. The scores were
2012 Seattle 16 Carolina 12
2013 Seattle 12 Carolina 7
2014 Seattle 13 Carolina 9
And, of the 28 points the Panthers scored, 9 were by the defense.
So with such low scoring games why such a large spread? Mainly because the Panthers winning streak took off when Cam Newton got healthy again. But last week he got dinged up and was limping bad. And when Newton is hurt he sucks. He was 18 for 32 and Carolina went 5 for 15 on third downs. They also turned it over 3 times. Seattle will be able to contain a limping Newton since they face a healthy Russell Wilson in practice each week (and Kaepernick twice a year.)
Carolina will also be without DT Star Lotulelie. He will be sorely missed when Marshawn Lynch gets going. Seattle also returns all pro center Max Unger who will open some holes.
And all those previous games? They were held in Carolina. Carolina is about to fact the raucous 12th man.
The trends also favor Seattle. During the six game win streak, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 ATS and for that large spread? Home teams laying 10+ points in the playoffs are 7-4 ATS, 7-1 if you exclude the Patriots.
I’ll lay a Mega on the Seahawks and a mini Mega on the under 40.0
On Sunday, the games start at 1:00 with
Dallas travels to Lambeau for a playoff game for the first time since the 1967 Ice Bowl Green Bay -6.0 vs Dallas – Unlike Seattle/Carolina this game figures to be high scoring. Both teams can move the ball and neither is particularly good on defense.
It also features the NFL’s best road team against the NFL’s best home team. Dallas went 8-0 on the road this year (where Romo threw 20 TDs against 2 picks) while Green Bay was 8-0 at home (where Rodgers threw 25 TDs against 0 picks). It’s the first time in NFL history that such an occurrence has occurred. Great matchup
And it will be the first time these teams have met in the playoffs in Lambeau since the famous Ice Bowl in 1967. Even better.
Dallas should have better luck getting DeMarco Murray rolling now that they aren’t playing Detroit’s #1 run defense. That should allow Romo to get some production out of Dez Bryant too.
But this game will come down to whether Aaron Rodgers is fully recovered from a reported torn calf muscle and ready to play in cold conditions. If he is, then he should torch the 23rd ranked Dallas defense in passing yards per attempt. It helps too that Dallas can’t get to the quarterback as they ranked 27th in sacks.
The Cowboys rush defense is also in the bottom 10 too which means RB Eddy Lacy will have a good day.
The trends are a mixed. Underdogs in Dallas games are 53-25 ATS while Green Bay is 8-0-1 ATS coming off a bye week. Green Bay is also 9-1-1 ATS on grass this year.
I’m torn on this game given the high spread and the fact that Green Bay has lost three of their last four playoff games including 2 at home. But when Rodgers is on he is really on – especially at home.
I’ll take the Pack and lay the points but only for a small wager. I will put a small wager on the over too.
And then to wrap up a great weekend of NFL action, at 4:30 there is
It also features the NFL’s best road team against the NFL’s best home team. Dallas went 8-0 on the road this year (where Romo threw 20 TDs against 2 picks) while Green Bay was 8-0 at home (where Rodgers threw 25 TDs against 0 picks). It’s the first time in NFL history that such an occurrence has occurred. Great matchup
And it will be the first time these teams have met in the playoffs in Lambeau since the famous Ice Bowl in 1967. Even better.
Dallas should have better luck getting DeMarco Murray rolling now that they aren’t playing Detroit’s #1 run defense. That should allow Romo to get some production out of Dez Bryant too.
But this game will come down to whether Aaron Rodgers is fully recovered from a reported torn calf muscle and ready to play in cold conditions. If he is, then he should torch the 23rd ranked Dallas defense in passing yards per attempt. It helps too that Dallas can’t get to the quarterback as they ranked 27th in sacks.
The Cowboys rush defense is also in the bottom 10 too which means RB Eddy Lacy will have a good day.
The trends are a mixed. Underdogs in Dallas games are 53-25 ATS while Green Bay is 8-0-1 ATS coming off a bye week. Green Bay is also 9-1-1 ATS on grass this year.
I’m torn on this game given the high spread and the fact that Green Bay has lost three of their last four playoff games including 2 at home. But when Rodgers is on he is really on – especially at home.
I’ll take the Pack and lay the points but only for a small wager. I will put a small wager on the over too.
And then to wrap up a great weekend of NFL action, at 4:30 there is
CJ Anderson has been carrying the load for Denver Indianapolis +7.0 @ Denver – It’s Peyton Manning versus the player drafted to replace him. Andrew Luck.
And it’s starting to look like Indianapolis made the right decision, Peyton is beginning to fade. During the last for games, Manning has thrown only 3 TD against 6 picks and only threw for 300 yards once – against the woeful Bengals.
And Manning typically fades during the playoffs. In the regular season he has a quarter back rating of 89.2 versus a regular season QBR of 97.5
To win during December, Denver relied on RB CJ Anderson who scored 7 TDs during that time – the NFL best during that time.
Denver’ s defense and running game is markedly better than Indy’s. The Broncos are better in four key stats, yards per attempt, yards allowed per attempt, yads per carry and yards allowed per carry. Since 1990, this has happened only 16 times and the better team went 15-1.
The key for Denver will be putting pressure on Luck. Cincinnati wasn’t able to get to Luck last week but that was expected. The Bengals had the fewest sacks in the league. Denver’s Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will be chasing Luck all day.
And the Bronco’s fifth rated defense against the run will contain the pedestrian Boom “fumbles” Herron and the galactic force Zurlon Tipton.
But I’m going to take Indianapolis to cover the large spread. TY Hilton will have a much better game than the horrible start he had against Cincinnati and even when pressured, Luck makes amazing throws.
No quatloos in this game. Manning could have put some gas back in the tank after a week off.
I will put a small wager on the under 54.0 though.
And it’s starting to look like Indianapolis made the right decision, Peyton is beginning to fade. During the last for games, Manning has thrown only 3 TD against 6 picks and only threw for 300 yards once – against the woeful Bengals.
And Manning typically fades during the playoffs. In the regular season he has a quarter back rating of 89.2 versus a regular season QBR of 97.5
To win during December, Denver relied on RB CJ Anderson who scored 7 TDs during that time – the NFL best during that time.
Denver’ s defense and running game is markedly better than Indy’s. The Broncos are better in four key stats, yards per attempt, yards allowed per attempt, yads per carry and yards allowed per carry. Since 1990, this has happened only 16 times and the better team went 15-1.
The key for Denver will be putting pressure on Luck. Cincinnati wasn’t able to get to Luck last week but that was expected. The Bengals had the fewest sacks in the league. Denver’s Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will be chasing Luck all day.
And the Bronco’s fifth rated defense against the run will contain the pedestrian Boom “fumbles” Herron and the galactic force Zurlon Tipton.
But I’m going to take Indianapolis to cover the large spread. TY Hilton will have a much better game than the horrible start he had against Cincinnati and even when pressured, Luck makes amazing throws.
No quatloos in this game. Manning could have put some gas back in the tank after a week off.
I will put a small wager on the under 54.0 though.
