IT”S BAAAAAACK! After a one year hiatus, it’s time to get ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for four teams, no one else has a shot at the championship. One and done in bowls just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.
That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.
And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.
And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pool.
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
This year it’s going to be a hard rule to follow. The Spartans got screwed by the Committee (as did Georgia Tech, the Sax Man is pissed!). State is seeded #11 and a play in team to boot. Can’t totally fault the Committee though, the offense can go AWOL for maddeningly long stretches while same at the same time, an eruption of turnovers occur.
But the rule is the rule. I’ll just make sure I have several backup brackets, just in case.
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
This year it’s going to be a hard rule to follow. The Spartans got screwed by the Committee (as did Georgia Tech, the Sax Man is pissed!). State is seeded #11 and a play in team to boot. Can’t totally fault the Committee though, the offense can go AWOL for maddeningly long stretches while same at the same time, an eruption of turnovers occur.
But the rule is the rule. I’ll just make sure I have several backup brackets, just in case.
Can a #1 seed lose again? I wouldn't count on it 2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to the Indianapolis.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. I know, it finally happened. In 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seed, went down in the first round. Can it happen again? I doubt it, The top seeds are 139-1 since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
4. Advance your 2 seeds at least one game but then look for upsets. Last tournament all the number 2 seeds won the first game and the second round but then went 2-2 in the third round. In 2018, the 2 seeds also won all their first game but then went 3-1 in the second round.. Prior to that in 2015 all four number 2’s advanced and then went 2-2 in the second round. The same thing happened in 2014. So definitely feel free to advance the #2s for one round and then kick them out of your bracket.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. I know, it finally happened. In 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seed, went down in the first round. Can it happen again? I doubt it, The top seeds are 139-1 since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
4. Advance your 2 seeds at least one game but then look for upsets. Last tournament all the number 2 seeds won the first game and the second round but then went 2-2 in the third round. In 2018, the 2 seeds also won all their first game but then went 3-1 in the second round.. Prior to that in 2015 all four number 2’s advanced and then went 2-2 in the second round. The same thing happened in 2014. So definitely feel free to advance the #2s for one round and then kick them out of your bracket.
#12 went 3-1 against #5 5. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over #3 seeds but last year all the #3 seeds advanced two rounds and then went 2-2 against #2 seeds. There is some history for these upsets though, in 2018 a 3 seed lost in the first round (West Virginia) and another (Utah) got launched after winning one game. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. Put in a 14 seed for a little spice in your bracket.
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). Last tournament, the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5’s! So have a little fun - take a 12 (or two) to beat a 5!
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all.
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). Last tournament, the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5’s! So have a little fun - take a 12 (or two) to beat a 5!
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all.
Kansas sucks in the Tourney 7. Kansas is in the tournament again. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year until 2019 when they were a #3. But they suck in the tourney. They only made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened in 2018. In 2019, they won one game and then got launched by a #5 seed. Go ahead and bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks prior to the Final Four.
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last eight Tournaments, seventeen of the sixty No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a double digit seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 88 Final Four teams, 71 (81%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed. Last tournament it was #5 Auburn.
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last eight Tournaments, seventeen of the sixty No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a double digit seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 88 Final Four teams, 71 (81%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed. Last tournament it was #5 Auburn.
Auburn went to the Final Four as a 5 seed last tourney 10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it takes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.4. If you are 8 or below too safe. Over 20, you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 22 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). You are going to need at least one non #4 seed in your Final Four bracket.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble trams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year was the first year it didn’t happen. Guess who is a First Four player this year!
13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 22 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be a little suspicious of West Virginia and Purdue.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble trams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year was the first year it didn’t happen. Guess who is a First Four player this year!
13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 22 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be a little suspicious of West Virginia and Purdue.
I always take State to win it all! 15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year.
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. There’s 11 of your 11.4 points right there.
b. In the West – I’ll take Gonzaga, attempting to become the first undefeated team since the Bobby Knight and the 1976 Hoosiers.
c. In the South – This is the toughest region to pick. All the top teams faded down the stretch. Baylor has not played the same since getting hit by the Covid, while Ohio State and Purdue come limping into the tourney. Nova lost it’s best player. So that leaves Arkansas, which is red hot even though it relies way too much on the three.
d. In the West – Illinois is the best team right now not named the Zags.
16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 16. A bit high, but putting State in at 11 drives the number.
17. For my First Four upset – Easy, State to take down UCLA and then BYU. Wichita State is capable of knocking off USC too, but I’ll go with the Trojans and a top 5 draft pick in freshman Evan Mobley to shock the Shockers.
18. For the 14 over 3 upset– I’ll go with Eastern Washington over Kansas. The Big Sky champions Eagles come in winning 13 of their last 14. Any team that has a red football field gets my vote. Besides, I need to knock off Kansas, might as well do it here.
Don’t listen the to the talking heads and pick Colgate. We had Hole members with better verticals than the Raiders have. Arkansas is going to blow them out.
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. There’s 11 of your 11.4 points right there.
b. In the West – I’ll take Gonzaga, attempting to become the first undefeated team since the Bobby Knight and the 1976 Hoosiers.
c. In the South – This is the toughest region to pick. All the top teams faded down the stretch. Baylor has not played the same since getting hit by the Covid, while Ohio State and Purdue come limping into the tourney. Nova lost it’s best player. So that leaves Arkansas, which is red hot even though it relies way too much on the three.
d. In the West – Illinois is the best team right now not named the Zags.
16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 16. A bit high, but putting State in at 11 drives the number.
17. For my First Four upset – Easy, State to take down UCLA and then BYU. Wichita State is capable of knocking off USC too, but I’ll go with the Trojans and a top 5 draft pick in freshman Evan Mobley to shock the Shockers.
18. For the 14 over 3 upset– I’ll go with Eastern Washington over Kansas. The Big Sky champions Eagles come in winning 13 of their last 14. Any team that has a red football field gets my vote. Besides, I need to knock off Kansas, might as well do it here.
Don’t listen the to the talking heads and pick Colgate. We had Hole members with better verticals than the Raiders have. Arkansas is going to blow them out.
Jason Preston ands Ohio nearly took down Illinois this year 19. For my 13 over 4 upset – I’ll go with Ohio to take down Virginia. Teams coming off Covid vacations struggle at first. The Cavs will be no different. Ohio can put up the points.
20. I’ll take UCSB to knock off Creighton for my #12 over #5. The Bluejays are little to inconsistent for my liking. The Gauchos, meanwhile are 18-1 since the calendar flipped to 2021. Besides, there’s always that one Sweet 16 matchup that features double digits seeds. This year it’s in the East
21. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? It’s a stretch but I’ll take North Carolina to knock off Baylor. The Bears have been a little off lately. The Heels are starting to play like the were supposed at the beginning of the year.
The Sax Man is begging me to take Tech over Illinois. He has a point. The Jackets are seriously underseeded at 9, especially when you consider Clemson ended up a 7 seed. But the Illini are just too good. It will be closer than expected but Tech goes home in the first weekend.
Put it all together and here is my 2021 winning bracket.
20. I’ll take UCSB to knock off Creighton for my #12 over #5. The Bluejays are little to inconsistent for my liking. The Gauchos, meanwhile are 18-1 since the calendar flipped to 2021. Besides, there’s always that one Sweet 16 matchup that features double digits seeds. This year it’s in the East
21. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? It’s a stretch but I’ll take North Carolina to knock off Baylor. The Bears have been a little off lately. The Heels are starting to play like the were supposed at the beginning of the year.
The Sax Man is begging me to take Tech over Illinois. He has a point. The Jackets are seriously underseeded at 9, especially when you consider Clemson ended up a 7 seed. But the Illini are just too good. It will be closer than expected but Tech goes home in the first weekend.
Put it all together and here is my 2021 winning bracket.
So fill out your brackets, call your and tell your boss that you are taking some COVID time off and head to your local watering hole!
And remember the 2021 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 13, 2021 at the Westgate SuperBook.
And remember the 2021 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 13, 2021 at the Westgate SuperBook.
