Got to finish my brackets!! March Madness!! It’s that time of year again. Brings back memories of taking Thursday and Friday off with Pete and Pat, heading down to the Gathering Place and watching tons of basketball. On Thursday
we were all excited about our brackets. By Friday, we were too many pitchers into a good time to remember who we picked - certain that we had gotten a few upsets right. Only to pull some crinkled moist pieces of paper out of our pockets – and go “Oooops, guess I was rooting for the wrong team”.
Now taking time off to watch the tourney hasn’t happened in quite a few years. But the excitement of the brackets is still there.
This year the Madness started early as I opened up the Doofus Deck for the ACC, SEC and BIG championship games. I had to put on rain coat on the deck due to an all day drizzle. The weather may have been damp but our spirits were not. Dobby brought over an excellent double IPA to kick things off. The party really started to get into high gear when Virginia downed Dook in the ACC championship.
Then it was time for the main event. Spartans vs Michigan. MSU has been fighting through injuries all season but with a full contingent and a few games together under their belts, MSU crushed everyone in their path in the BIG tourney. Northwestern – blown out. Ultimate #2 seed Wisconsin – blown out. Another #2 seed Michigan – you got it – blown out. It was pure heaven.
As the game wound down, the gang wanted to watch the SEC championship game. Kentucky and Florida were going down the wire. But that’s the beauty of hosting – you get to control the TV. I switched over during commercials but I didn’t want to miss a second of the humiliation of the Corn and Blue.
Most everyone headed out but the Sax Man and I stuck around to watch the Big Dance selection show. What seed, what day and where were the Spartans going? A four seed!?!? Surprised after what the just did to the Big Ten. But playing on Thrusday in Spokane. That was the real travesty. One reason that Izzo never placed a huge amount of effort into the BIG tourney was because you could end up playing three games in three days including Sunday and then have to turn around and play on Thursday in the NCAA tourney. And that is exactly what happened. Not only that but they have to go cross country to play in Spokane. Oh well, at least it is in Jud’s back yard. They have had a
ton of luck out there.
The best part was still to come. At the end of the show the CBS guys picked their Final Four. Everyone had State in the Palace in Dallas. As Ellis, the Sax Man and me broke down the camp site we watched the ESPN show too. At the end of that show every broadcaster was asked for not only his Final Four but champion too.
Seth Greenberg – State to win it all – wow. Jay Bilas – I like him – State. Double wow. Good pick. Digger Phelps – jerk – State. Holy Crap. He hates State. Jay Williams – State. OMG this is incredible. And finally Dook Vitale. He’s going to pick Dook. He always does. Nope STATE!. You got to be kidding me. Everyone one picked State!
We were high fiving all around. The tourney is off to a great start.
we were all excited about our brackets. By Friday, we were too many pitchers into a good time to remember who we picked - certain that we had gotten a few upsets right. Only to pull some crinkled moist pieces of paper out of our pockets – and go “Oooops, guess I was rooting for the wrong team”.
Now taking time off to watch the tourney hasn’t happened in quite a few years. But the excitement of the brackets is still there.
This year the Madness started early as I opened up the Doofus Deck for the ACC, SEC and BIG championship games. I had to put on rain coat on the deck due to an all day drizzle. The weather may have been damp but our spirits were not. Dobby brought over an excellent double IPA to kick things off. The party really started to get into high gear when Virginia downed Dook in the ACC championship.
Then it was time for the main event. Spartans vs Michigan. MSU has been fighting through injuries all season but with a full contingent and a few games together under their belts, MSU crushed everyone in their path in the BIG tourney. Northwestern – blown out. Ultimate #2 seed Wisconsin – blown out. Another #2 seed Michigan – you got it – blown out. It was pure heaven.
As the game wound down, the gang wanted to watch the SEC championship game. Kentucky and Florida were going down the wire. But that’s the beauty of hosting – you get to control the TV. I switched over during commercials but I didn’t want to miss a second of the humiliation of the Corn and Blue.
Most everyone headed out but the Sax Man and I stuck around to watch the Big Dance selection show. What seed, what day and where were the Spartans going? A four seed!?!? Surprised after what the just did to the Big Ten. But playing on Thrusday in Spokane. That was the real travesty. One reason that Izzo never placed a huge amount of effort into the BIG tourney was because you could end up playing three games in three days including Sunday and then have to turn around and play on Thursday in the NCAA tourney. And that is exactly what happened. Not only that but they have to go cross country to play in Spokane. Oh well, at least it is in Jud’s back yard. They have had a
ton of luck out there.
The best part was still to come. At the end of the show the CBS guys picked their Final Four. Everyone had State in the Palace in Dallas. As Ellis, the Sax Man and me broke down the camp site we watched the ESPN show too. At the end of that show every broadcaster was asked for not only his Final Four but champion too.
Seth Greenberg – State to win it all – wow. Jay Bilas – I like him – State. Double wow. Good pick. Digger Phelps – jerk – State. Holy Crap. He hates State. Jay Williams – State. OMG this is incredible. And finally Dook Vitale. He’s going to pick Dook. He always does. Nope STATE!. You got to be kidding me. Everyone one picked State!
We were high fiving all around. The tourney is off to a great start.
Now it’s time to get down to one of the highlights of the tourney. Picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball now you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers.
So, like the rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else. Apparently the guys over at ESPN are now
following the Big Book of Guesses and rule number 1 too.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella going to the Palace in Dallas
3. Take a few upsets if you want (especially an arch rival – Michigan is usually biting the dust for me) in the opening rounds but take them out in the second
4. Advance all the No. 1 seeds and probably all of the No. 2 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. It may happen someday, but no sense blowing your bracket this year waiting for that to happen. The No. 2 seeds have taken a few hits over last two seasons Two No. 2 seeds lost in 2012 (Duke and Missouri) and No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast advanced all the way to the Sweet 16 last year after beating Georgetown in the first game. Still, I see a 15 over 2 as unlikely this year.
5. Drop some No. 1s or No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last four Tournaments, eight of the 32 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
6. Don’t fall in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Wichita States, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 52 Final Four teams, 44 were top-four seeds, and four of the seven who were not top-four seeds were No. 5 seeds. And over the last 10 seasons, the average number of double-digit seeds beating favorites was six per tournament. Meanwhile, a bracket with favorites winning every game last year would have placed in the 91st percentile of entries to ESPN's contest
7. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 20 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been 14. If you are 10 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 20 years (though it did happen in 2011). Last year it was 18 primarily due to Wichita State being a 9 seed. 2012 played out very safe with a total of 9.
8. The real upset potential starts at the No. 5 seeds. Last year 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won (Ole Miss, Cal, and Oregon) so don’t be afraid to take the upsets early on. An 11 seed (Minnesota) and a 10 seed (Iowa State) won last year too. Just boot em after that.
9. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams had trouble clinching a Tourney bid because they couldn’t win consistently. Teams from major conferences that are bubble teams are bubble teams because they suck. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous. This year’s power conference bubble teams to avoid - Arizona State, BYU, and NC State,
10. Watch out for teams that fading down the stretch. If they limped into the tourney they are going to limp right out. On the flip side, give credit to teams that got better as the season went along.
Teams that faded: Arizona State, Iowa, Saint Louis, Syracuse, Texas, UMass
Teams that improved through the season: Baylor, Dayton, Louisville, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia
11. Gotta Love that Home Cooking - several teams are going to feel right at home for their opening games of the
tournament. And several teams are going to feel like it's a road game. Florida plays the Albany-Mount St. Mary's winner in Orlando, UCLA takes on Stephen F. Austin in San Diego, Syracuse heads down the road to Buffalo for its game against Western Michigan, Baylor will face Nebraska in San Antonio, Wisconsin plays American in Milwaukee, and Duke will open against Mercer in Raleigh, N.C.
12. Find balance on offense and defense. Defense wins championship in football. Not so much in basketball. Basketball is more about balance.. Every champion over the last 10 years has ranked in the top 20 in both of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. This year four teams earned that ranking - Florida, Louisville, Villanova, Wichita State
And here are some more facts about the tourney I found interesting
10. This season, the sport's stud is Creighton senior forward Doug McDermott, who has the fifth-most career points in NCAA history.
11. Northwestern is the only school from a power six conference never to make the NCAA tournament. Sorry
Bruce.
12. Nebraska and Northwestern are the only schools from a power six conference never to win an NCAA tournament game. At least Nebraska has a chance this year.
13. BYU has made the most NCAA Tournament appearances without a Final Four.
14. According to a Wall Street Journal audit last year of the animal kingdom, bears have the best NCAA tournament winning percentage of animal mascots, followed by cats, dogs and birds. Horses pull up the rear. That is good news for Baylor and Mercer—not so much for Western Michigan
15. Since 1986, teams that win the national championship have been given the actual hardwood court they won the championship on
16. The Doofus Daughter’s new school Mercer will be in the tourney for the first time since 1985. Their most famous alum? Robert E Lee. And they are the only school from Georgia in the Tourney. Sorry Sax Man.
And the State of Indiana will be without a team for the first time since 2005. Sorry Mrs. Pete.
17. UCLA fans had to cringe when they saw the Bruins in the same region as Florida. The Gators have sent UCLA packing from the NCAA Tournament three times since 2006.
So factoring it all in I went with a lot of high seeds this year. Here is one of my brackets for this year’s tournament.
GO JUMBO!! Nov 15th at the LVH Hotel
So, like the rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else. Apparently the guys over at ESPN are now
following the Big Book of Guesses and rule number 1 too.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella going to the Palace in Dallas
3. Take a few upsets if you want (especially an arch rival – Michigan is usually biting the dust for me) in the opening rounds but take them out in the second
4. Advance all the No. 1 seeds and probably all of the No. 2 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. It may happen someday, but no sense blowing your bracket this year waiting for that to happen. The No. 2 seeds have taken a few hits over last two seasons Two No. 2 seeds lost in 2012 (Duke and Missouri) and No. 15 seed Florida Gulf Coast advanced all the way to the Sweet 16 last year after beating Georgetown in the first game. Still, I see a 15 over 2 as unlikely this year.
5. Drop some No. 1s or No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last four Tournaments, eight of the 32 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
6. Don’t fall in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Wichita States, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 52 Final Four teams, 44 were top-four seeds, and four of the seven who were not top-four seeds were No. 5 seeds. And over the last 10 seasons, the average number of double-digit seeds beating favorites was six per tournament. Meanwhile, a bracket with favorites winning every game last year would have placed in the 91st percentile of entries to ESPN's contest
7. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 20 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been 14. If you are 10 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 20 years (though it did happen in 2011). Last year it was 18 primarily due to Wichita State being a 9 seed. 2012 played out very safe with a total of 9.
8. The real upset potential starts at the No. 5 seeds. Last year 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won (Ole Miss, Cal, and Oregon) so don’t be afraid to take the upsets early on. An 11 seed (Minnesota) and a 10 seed (Iowa State) won last year too. Just boot em after that.
9. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams had trouble clinching a Tourney bid because they couldn’t win consistently. Teams from major conferences that are bubble teams are bubble teams because they suck. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous. This year’s power conference bubble teams to avoid - Arizona State, BYU, and NC State,
10. Watch out for teams that fading down the stretch. If they limped into the tourney they are going to limp right out. On the flip side, give credit to teams that got better as the season went along.
Teams that faded: Arizona State, Iowa, Saint Louis, Syracuse, Texas, UMass
Teams that improved through the season: Baylor, Dayton, Louisville, Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia
11. Gotta Love that Home Cooking - several teams are going to feel right at home for their opening games of the
tournament. And several teams are going to feel like it's a road game. Florida plays the Albany-Mount St. Mary's winner in Orlando, UCLA takes on Stephen F. Austin in San Diego, Syracuse heads down the road to Buffalo for its game against Western Michigan, Baylor will face Nebraska in San Antonio, Wisconsin plays American in Milwaukee, and Duke will open against Mercer in Raleigh, N.C.
12. Find balance on offense and defense. Defense wins championship in football. Not so much in basketball. Basketball is more about balance.. Every champion over the last 10 years has ranked in the top 20 in both of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. This year four teams earned that ranking - Florida, Louisville, Villanova, Wichita State
And here are some more facts about the tourney I found interesting
- No. 1 seeds have won six of the past seven championships and 11 of the past 15.
- The No. 5 seed is the highest seed to never win the national title.
- Jim Boeheim may have a national championship under his belt, but he was also the golf coach at Syracuse in the 1970s.
- In 1989, two No.16 seeds came within a bucket of upsetting two No. 1 seeds. Princeton and East Tennessee State both lost to Georgetown and Oklahoma by just one point, respectively.
- The number of times no No. 1 seeds made up to the Final Four? Three.
- Only three men have won an NCAA championship as a player and as a head coach (Bob Knight, Dean Smith and Joe B. Hall).
- Larry Brown is the only coach to win both an NCAA title and an NBA title.
- Speaking of Larry Brown – his SMU team didn’t make the tournament (much to the disgust of many pundits) but Danny Manning’s Tulsa squad did. True basketball fans will catch the irony of that fact.
10. This season, the sport's stud is Creighton senior forward Doug McDermott, who has the fifth-most career points in NCAA history.
11. Northwestern is the only school from a power six conference never to make the NCAA tournament. Sorry
Bruce.
12. Nebraska and Northwestern are the only schools from a power six conference never to win an NCAA tournament game. At least Nebraska has a chance this year.
13. BYU has made the most NCAA Tournament appearances without a Final Four.
14. According to a Wall Street Journal audit last year of the animal kingdom, bears have the best NCAA tournament winning percentage of animal mascots, followed by cats, dogs and birds. Horses pull up the rear. That is good news for Baylor and Mercer—not so much for Western Michigan
15. Since 1986, teams that win the national championship have been given the actual hardwood court they won the championship on
16. The Doofus Daughter’s new school Mercer will be in the tourney for the first time since 1985. Their most famous alum? Robert E Lee. And they are the only school from Georgia in the Tourney. Sorry Sax Man.
And the State of Indiana will be without a team for the first time since 2005. Sorry Mrs. Pete.
17. UCLA fans had to cringe when they saw the Bruins in the same region as Florida. The Gators have sent UCLA packing from the NCAA Tournament three times since 2006.
So factoring it all in I went with a lot of high seeds this year. Here is one of my brackets for this year’s tournament.
GO JUMBO!! Nov 15th at the LVH Hotel
And if you were playing close attention to the picks - you will notice that it's the same Final Four as 2000 when State last won it all with one exception. UNC won't make it since they play MSU in the Elite Eight. The Spartans will have revenge on their minds and Appling will be especially fired up since that is the game where he hurt his wrist - and his season went into a tailspin
Congrats to the Sax Man for noticing including the missing UNC.
Congrats to the Sax Man for noticing including the missing UNC.
