Rule #1 - Always take State to win it all It’s time to get ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for four teams there is no chance at a championship. One and done just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.
It’s nothing like March Madness. In March, 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.
But the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball now you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers. No longer are you rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
It’s nothing like March Madness. In March, 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.
But the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball now you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers. No longer are you rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
Duke lost as a #2 last year in the second round. They're a #2 seed again 1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to Phoenix.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. The top seeds are 132-0 since seeding began. It may happen someday, but no sense blowing your bracket this year waiting for that to happen.
4. Advance your 2 seeds at least one game but then look for upsets. Last year all the number 2 seeds won the first game but then went 2-2 in the second round. In 2016, the 2 seeds went 3-1 (for the life of me I can’t remember who lost) and then went 2-1 in the next round. Prior to that in 2015 all four number 2’s advanced and then went 2-2 in the second round. The same thing happened in 2014. So definitely feel free to advance the #2s for one round and then kick them out of your bracket.
5. The 3 seeds are just as susceptible to falling to 14 seeds. Last year a 3 seed lost in the first round (West Virginia) and another (Utah) got launched after winning one game. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. Put in a 14 seed for a little spice in your bracket.
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). Last year one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State (where have I heard of that team before??) won. So have a little fun - take a 12 to beat a 5!
7. Kansas is a #1 seed again. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year. But they suck in the tourney. They only made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened last year. Go ahead and bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks prior to the Final Four.
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last seven Tournaments, seventeen of the fifty-six No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to Phoenix.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. The top seeds are 132-0 since seeding began. It may happen someday, but no sense blowing your bracket this year waiting for that to happen.
4. Advance your 2 seeds at least one game but then look for upsets. Last year all the number 2 seeds won the first game but then went 2-2 in the second round. In 2016, the 2 seeds went 3-1 (for the life of me I can’t remember who lost) and then went 2-1 in the next round. Prior to that in 2015 all four number 2’s advanced and then went 2-2 in the second round. The same thing happened in 2014. So definitely feel free to advance the #2s for one round and then kick them out of your bracket.
5. The 3 seeds are just as susceptible to falling to 14 seeds. Last year a 3 seed lost in the first round (West Virginia) and another (Utah) got launched after winning one game. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. Put in a 14 seed for a little spice in your bracket.
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). Last year one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State (where have I heard of that team before??) won. So have a little fun - take a 12 to beat a 5!
7. Kansas is a #1 seed again. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year. But they suck in the tourney. They only made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened last year. Go ahead and bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks prior to the Final Four.
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last seven Tournaments, seventeen of the fifty-six No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
USC went from the FIrst Four to the Round of 32 last year 9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 84 Final Four teams, 68 (81%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed. Last year it was #7 South Carolina.
10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 20 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.4. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 22 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). Hmmm looking at that trend - maybe its due.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams had trouble clinching a Tourney bid because they couldn’t win consistently. Teams from major conferences that are bubble teams are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was USC.
10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 20 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.4. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 22 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). Hmmm looking at that trend - maybe its due.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams had trouble clinching a Tourney bid because they couldn’t win consistently. Teams from major conferences that are bubble teams are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was USC.
Kentucky is getting their crap together at just the right time 13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 21 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be suspicious of Ohio State and Auburn.
15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year.
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the Midwest – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. Izzo won't get a chance to get his revenge over Coach K in the Sweet Sixteen as the Rams from Rhode Island upset the Dookies. After that, it’s an easy path for the Spartans to ‘Ol San Antone.
b. In the East – I’ll take Nova as they try to get their 2nd title in three years.
c. In the South – I’ll take a surging Kentucky coming in as a five seed.
d. In the West – UNC looks to repeat as champs
16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 11. Sounds about right.
17. For my First Four upset – I’ll go with the winner of the Arizona State/Syracuse game to upset TCU
18. For the 13 over 4 upset – I’m going to pass. Charleston Southern over Auburn would be the pick but I don’t want to get sideways with the Big Guy
19. I will take two 12 over 5 upsets as South Dakota State takes down an over rated Ohio State and New Mexico State upsets Clemson. The football powers should stick to the grid iron.
20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? Duke of course. Rhode Island has been playing great this year and I want to clear a path for Sparty.
Put it all together and here is my 2016 bracket
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be suspicious of Ohio State and Auburn.
15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year.
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the Midwest – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. Izzo won't get a chance to get his revenge over Coach K in the Sweet Sixteen as the Rams from Rhode Island upset the Dookies. After that, it’s an easy path for the Spartans to ‘Ol San Antone.
b. In the East – I’ll take Nova as they try to get their 2nd title in three years.
c. In the South – I’ll take a surging Kentucky coming in as a five seed.
d. In the West – UNC looks to repeat as champs
16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 11. Sounds about right.
17. For my First Four upset – I’ll go with the winner of the Arizona State/Syracuse game to upset TCU
18. For the 13 over 4 upset – I’m going to pass. Charleston Southern over Auburn would be the pick but I don’t want to get sideways with the Big Guy
19. I will take two 12 over 5 upsets as South Dakota State takes down an over rated Ohio State and New Mexico State upsets Clemson. The football powers should stick to the grid iron.
20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? Duke of course. Rhode Island has been playing great this year and I want to clear a path for Sparty.
Put it all together and here is my 2016 bracket
Remember - the 2018 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 3 at the Westgate Las Vegas Resort
And don’t forget your drink coupons!
