
Tulsa -2.5 vs Mississippi State, Armed Forces Bowl, Ft Worth TX – It’s one of just two Power Five vs. Group of Five matchups in the bowl season, with Cincinnati vs. Georgia in the Chik-fil-A Peach Bowl the other.
Only in the year of COVID would you see a team with three wins playing in a bowl game. The Mississippi Bulldogs were a miserable 3-7, but with so many opt-outs from many bowl-eligible teams, they got invited to play in this one. Conversely, Tulsa is 6-2 with its two losses have come by 12 total points to a pair of ranked opponents.
Mike Leach is in his first year at the helm of the Bulldogs, and when you think of Leach, you think of high-scoring offensive teams. But when the Pirate’s Air Raid thing is bad, it’s really bad. The running game didn’t hit the 100-yard mark until the regular season finale against Missouri, and the passing game that’s supposed to keep everything rolling struggled with its consistency. Mississippi State finished 109th in the nation in scoring at 20.7 ppg, even though they are 16th in passing.
Only in the year of COVID would you see a team with three wins playing in a bowl game. The Mississippi Bulldogs were a miserable 3-7, but with so many opt-outs from many bowl-eligible teams, they got invited to play in this one. Conversely, Tulsa is 6-2 with its two losses have come by 12 total points to a pair of ranked opponents.
Mike Leach is in his first year at the helm of the Bulldogs, and when you think of Leach, you think of high-scoring offensive teams. But when the Pirate’s Air Raid thing is bad, it’s really bad. The running game didn’t hit the 100-yard mark until the regular season finale against Missouri, and the passing game that’s supposed to keep everything rolling struggled with its consistency. Mississippi State finished 109th in the nation in scoring at 20.7 ppg, even though they are 16th in passing.

And they can’t stop giving the ball away. The Bulldogs have lost the ball a whopping 26 times, second-highest total in FBS, turning it over two times or more in seven games. Tulsa has forced multiple takeaways five times in the eight.
The Bulldogs are surprisingly better on defense. It was a top-25 in rushing defense. They also have kept teams right around 380 total yards per game, fourth in the SEC and a top 50 overall. While the Bulldogs have been solid against the run, they are struggled against the pass finishing 94th in pass defense efficiency.
Their biggest struggles have come where it matters most — on the scoreboard, with seven of their 10 opponents scoring at least 28 points and two (LSU and Alabama) eclipsing 40, finishing 60th in points allowed.
Tulsa has been one of the most fun teams of the 2020 college football season. Not only did it shockingly rise up to get to the American Athletic Conference championship game, but every game seemed to have a ton of drama, including losing to Cincinnati on a walk-off field goal in the conference title game.
The offense has been average at best this year as Tulsa enters this game ranked 51st in passing, 64th in rushing, and 74th in scoring, putting up 27.3 ppg. They are a ball-control team, which is in direct contrast to Mississippi State's fast-paced attack.
The Bulldogs are surprisingly better on defense. It was a top-25 in rushing defense. They also have kept teams right around 380 total yards per game, fourth in the SEC and a top 50 overall. While the Bulldogs have been solid against the run, they are struggled against the pass finishing 94th in pass defense efficiency.
Their biggest struggles have come where it matters most — on the scoreboard, with seven of their 10 opponents scoring at least 28 points and two (LSU and Alabama) eclipsing 40, finishing 60th in points allowed.
Tulsa has been one of the most fun teams of the 2020 college football season. Not only did it shockingly rise up to get to the American Athletic Conference championship game, but every game seemed to have a ton of drama, including losing to Cincinnati on a walk-off field goal in the conference title game.
The offense has been average at best this year as Tulsa enters this game ranked 51st in passing, 64th in rushing, and 74th in scoring, putting up 27.3 ppg. They are a ball-control team, which is in direct contrast to Mississippi State's fast-paced attack.

QB Zach Smith is OK but hasn't been the same since an early exit due to injury against Tulane. Smith threw for 168 and 166 yards against Navy and Cincinnati with a single TD in each game. Smith will be facing a weak pass defense in this one, so he could have a bounce-back game. For the year, he has thrown for 1,601 yards with 12 TDs and 8 INTs.
It’s the defense that got the Golden Hurricane here. Tulsa ranks 22nd against the pass, 46th against the run, giving up just 20.8 ppg (23rd). This defense has a knack for making big plays, tied for 10th in FBS with eight tackles for a loss per game and 15th in red-zone defense.
But, Tulsa's defense will be missing its best player – LB Zaven Collins has opted out to get ready for the NFL. Collins was an AP first-team All-American and the winner of the Bronko Nagurski Trophy.
I’m going to put a Mega Bet on Tulsa and give the 2.5 points. They are a more balanced offense and better defense. Turnovers could decide the game. Tulsa is 22nd in the nation in takeaways per game at 2.0 while the Bulldogs are 128th in giveaways at 2.6 per game.
It’s the defense that got the Golden Hurricane here. Tulsa ranks 22nd against the pass, 46th against the run, giving up just 20.8 ppg (23rd). This defense has a knack for making big plays, tied for 10th in FBS with eight tackles for a loss per game and 15th in red-zone defense.
But, Tulsa's defense will be missing its best player – LB Zaven Collins has opted out to get ready for the NFL. Collins was an AP first-team All-American and the winner of the Bronko Nagurski Trophy.
I’m going to put a Mega Bet on Tulsa and give the 2.5 points. They are a more balanced offense and better defense. Turnovers could decide the game. Tulsa is 22nd in the nation in takeaways per game at 2.0 while the Bulldogs are 128th in giveaways at 2.6 per game.

San Jose State -9.5 vs Ball State, Arizona Bowl, Tucson, AZ – There are only two bowls featuring two conference champions. Ohio State vs Clemson is one, this is the other.
San Jose State will be trying to complete the first perfect season in school history It’s 7-0 with every win by double-digits. The program has won its last four bowl games. Ball State has never won a bowl game in nine tries. This is their first attempt since 2013.
It’s been quite the turnaround for both HCs. In his first three seasons as Ball State HC Mike Neu never won more than four games while San Jose State’s Brent Brennan went 3-22 in his first two seasons.
Ball State is the poster boy for MACtion. They averaged 34.3 PPG while giving up 27.6. QB Drew Plitt had a productive season passing hitting 65% of his passes for 1,937 yards in only seven games. He has 16 touchdown passes and six interceptions. But they struggle keeping him upright, Ball State is 119th nationally with 25 sacks allowed in their seven games.
San Jose State will be trying to complete the first perfect season in school history It’s 7-0 with every win by double-digits. The program has won its last four bowl games. Ball State has never won a bowl game in nine tries. This is their first attempt since 2013.
It’s been quite the turnaround for both HCs. In his first three seasons as Ball State HC Mike Neu never won more than four games while San Jose State’s Brent Brennan went 3-22 in his first two seasons.
Ball State is the poster boy for MACtion. They averaged 34.3 PPG while giving up 27.6. QB Drew Plitt had a productive season passing hitting 65% of his passes for 1,937 yards in only seven games. He has 16 touchdown passes and six interceptions. But they struggle keeping him upright, Ball State is 119th nationally with 25 sacks allowed in their seven games.

Turning to the running game will be difficult. Caleb Huntley is one of the best RBs in the country who put together a string of seven straight 100-yard games. But he has opted out and won't be available.
The Cardinals are ranked 10th in the country in turnover margin, gaining 14 and committing only seven themselves. But this angle may not be there either as SJSU has yet to lose a fumble this season.
The Spartans are averaging 31 points per game. QB Nick Starkel completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 1,906 yards, 16 TDs, and four picks. In the running game, Tyler Nevens only had 486 rushing yards in seven games but he is averaging a hefty 8.1 yards per carry. But the emerging star to keep an eye on is tight end Derrick Deese Jr., who has a team-leading seven touchdown catches and is coming off a seven-catch, 76-yard performance vs. Boise State.
The Spartans had one of the best defenses in the nation, holding opponents to 17.9 points per game. For their part, the Cardinals haven’t played well defensively, which is why they won all but two games by one score.
I’m going with the other Spartans and laying the points. Their defense will rule the day. Just a quatloo though.
The Cardinals are ranked 10th in the country in turnover margin, gaining 14 and committing only seven themselves. But this angle may not be there either as SJSU has yet to lose a fumble this season.
The Spartans are averaging 31 points per game. QB Nick Starkel completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 1,906 yards, 16 TDs, and four picks. In the running game, Tyler Nevens only had 486 rushing yards in seven games but he is averaging a hefty 8.1 yards per carry. But the emerging star to keep an eye on is tight end Derrick Deese Jr., who has a team-leading seven touchdown catches and is coming off a seven-catch, 76-yard performance vs. Boise State.
The Spartans had one of the best defenses in the nation, holding opponents to 17.9 points per game. For their part, the Cardinals haven’t played well defensively, which is why they won all but two games by one score.
I’m going with the other Spartans and laying the points. Their defense will rule the day. Just a quatloo though.

Army +7.0 vs West Virginia, Liberty Bowl, Memphis TN – The Liberty Bowl was originally set to feature West Virginia against Tennessee. But the Volunteers were forced to back out due to the Covid. It opened the door to a much better game against Army.
Both HC’s know how to win bowls. Army’s Jeff Monken is 3-0 so far with the Knights in bowls while WVU’s Neal Brown was 3-0 in bowl games at Troy.
Army looking to earn a 10-win season for the third time in the last four seasons. WVU is a bowl regular. This is their 20th bowl in the last 22 years.
Army's mission offensively never changes - dominate the line of scrimmage, run the football down the opposing team's throat, and control the clock. Mission accomplished, the Knights averaged 281.3 rushing YPG, while racking up 33 rushing TDs to finish fourth in both regards.
And as you would expect, there are no stars on the offense. The Black Knights have four backs who have rushed for at least 400 yards.
Both HC’s know how to win bowls. Army’s Jeff Monken is 3-0 so far with the Knights in bowls while WVU’s Neal Brown was 3-0 in bowl games at Troy.
Army looking to earn a 10-win season for the third time in the last four seasons. WVU is a bowl regular. This is their 20th bowl in the last 22 years.
Army's mission offensively never changes - dominate the line of scrimmage, run the football down the opposing team's throat, and control the clock. Mission accomplished, the Knights averaged 281.3 rushing YPG, while racking up 33 rushing TDs to finish fourth in both regards.
And as you would expect, there are no stars on the offense. The Black Knights have four backs who have rushed for at least 400 yards.

The defense has been great, It’s second in the nation behind Wisconsin allowing just 271 yards per game, and it’s No. 1 in college football in pass defense. The Black Knights also have just as many interceptions (13) to their credit as they have touchdown passes allowed (13).
To be very, very fair, though, the stats are skewed considering the Knights haven’t faced anyone who throws. They faced four triple-option offenses this season that rarely threw the ball
However, the system really is working. They have allowed less than 10 points in six contests, including pitching two shutouts. Tulane is the only team to come up with more than 27 points on this D.
Army's defense is headlined by second-team All-American linebacker Jon Rhattigan. The Bednarik Award semifinalist leads the team with 78 tackles (nine for a loss) to go along with 1.5 sacks, two interceptions, and two fumble recoveries.
WVU QB Jarret Doege is pretty good. He threw for 2,428 yards and 13 TDs against just three interceptions while completing 64.1% of his passes. in terms of passing yards per game, West Virginia (277.2, No. 26 FBS) represents the best passing attack that Army has faced all season.
To be very, very fair, though, the stats are skewed considering the Knights haven’t faced anyone who throws. They faced four triple-option offenses this season that rarely threw the ball
However, the system really is working. They have allowed less than 10 points in six contests, including pitching two shutouts. Tulane is the only team to come up with more than 27 points on this D.
Army's defense is headlined by second-team All-American linebacker Jon Rhattigan. The Bednarik Award semifinalist leads the team with 78 tackles (nine for a loss) to go along with 1.5 sacks, two interceptions, and two fumble recoveries.
WVU QB Jarret Doege is pretty good. He threw for 2,428 yards and 13 TDs against just three interceptions while completing 64.1% of his passes. in terms of passing yards per game, West Virginia (277.2, No. 26 FBS) represents the best passing attack that Army has faced all season.

The heart of the WVU offense is Jr RB Leddie Brown. He rushed for 945 yards and nine scores in just nine games en route to first-team All-Big 12 honors. Brown has topped 100 yards in five games and he averages a stout 5.3 yards per carry. He's also a solid pass catcher out of the backfield with 31 receptions for 202 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
But the Neer offense has trouble with consistency. It produced 37 against KSU and 24 against TCU, but came up with only 13 against Texas and six against Iowa State.
The way to beat the option is to have time to prepare, check. And a tremendous DL, double check plus! Army is about get introduced to the NFL-caliber brother tandem of Dante and Darius Stills. The Mountaineers have the DL with the Stills brothers to be a major pain for the Army ground attack. Yes, it’s all about precision, cuts, and a different sort of blocking scheme as opposed to pure power, but the Mountaineers have the linemen to hold up, and the rest of the D knows how to stop the run.
After watching the type of teams that gave Georgia Tech fits in years past, I’ll take the WVU DL to stuff Army and lay the points. No quatloos though. I'm just making Dwink happy. Every time I pick against Army they win.
I will lay a quatloo on the under
But the Neer offense has trouble with consistency. It produced 37 against KSU and 24 against TCU, but came up with only 13 against Texas and six against Iowa State.
The way to beat the option is to have time to prepare, check. And a tremendous DL, double check plus! Army is about get introduced to the NFL-caliber brother tandem of Dante and Darius Stills. The Mountaineers have the DL with the Stills brothers to be a major pain for the Army ground attack. Yes, it’s all about precision, cuts, and a different sort of blocking scheme as opposed to pure power, but the Mountaineers have the linemen to hold up, and the rest of the D knows how to stop the run.
After watching the type of teams that gave Georgia Tech fits in years past, I’ll take the WVU DL to stuff Army and lay the points. No quatloos though. I'm just making Dwink happy. Every time I pick against Army they win.
I will lay a quatloo on the under