The schedules are out. Time to update the the 2015 Big Book of Guesses Bruce, out visiting the Sheriff of Malibu, emailed wanting to know why there was no update after the NFL combine. Apparently, they need a football fix.
Well, the combine is a real non-event. If, after 3-4 years of playing college ball, your tape isn’t good enough then a blistering 40 time isn’t going to make you a high draft choice. Only a couple moronic teams (cough…cough…Oakland) are going to draft workout wonders.
Sure, a great 40 time could move you up several slots and a putrid number of lifts could put back half a round. And a small school candidate that wows the coaches might get taken in day three. And there is always a chance that a player could admit to doing lines of coke head before going all Ray Rice on his girlfriend or going Penn State in the showers, taking him right out of the draft. But in the end, the guys who were going to be taken in the first couple of rounds are still going in rounds one and two plus or minus a few slots.
That said, I did enjoy seeing that two Spartans were the fastest RB and CBs. So much for that vaunted SEC speed.
I’ll have a full recap of the NFL draft when it’s complete in early May. Maybe we can get Dobby to host. I have plenty of cable left over from the Doofus Deck.
The big news for me was that earlier in the week, the Mountain West finally released its football schedule which means that all the teams are in. So I scurried this week to update the 2015 Div 1A Bettors guide.
And it also means that the GO JUMBO week (Nov 7th) schedule is also complete. Time to take a sneak peek at this year’s action.
But first, a couple quick items – like how did the Big Book of Guesses do in 2014?
Well, the combine is a real non-event. If, after 3-4 years of playing college ball, your tape isn’t good enough then a blistering 40 time isn’t going to make you a high draft choice. Only a couple moronic teams (cough…cough…Oakland) are going to draft workout wonders.
Sure, a great 40 time could move you up several slots and a putrid number of lifts could put back half a round. And a small school candidate that wows the coaches might get taken in day three. And there is always a chance that a player could admit to doing lines of coke head before going all Ray Rice on his girlfriend or going Penn State in the showers, taking him right out of the draft. But in the end, the guys who were going to be taken in the first couple of rounds are still going in rounds one and two plus or minus a few slots.
That said, I did enjoy seeing that two Spartans were the fastest RB and CBs. So much for that vaunted SEC speed.
I’ll have a full recap of the NFL draft when it’s complete in early May. Maybe we can get Dobby to host. I have plenty of cable left over from the Doofus Deck.
The big news for me was that earlier in the week, the Mountain West finally released its football schedule which means that all the teams are in. So I scurried this week to update the 2015 Div 1A Bettors guide.
And it also means that the GO JUMBO week (Nov 7th) schedule is also complete. Time to take a sneak peek at this year’s action.
But first, a couple quick items – like how did the Big Book of Guesses do in 2014?
The Doofus was pretty pleased with the second half results Pretty much like most years. Started out like crap and then caught fire in the second half of the year.
The Big Book of Guesses went 388-359-15 or 52% for the year including the bowl games. In the NFL the BBofG went 138-127-2 including the playoffs or 52% again. Basically break even after the spiff.
But, it’s not how you pick ‘em but how you bet ‘em that matters. So how did the Doofus do with the Mega Bets?
Overall in the college games the Doofus went 19-14 or 58%. That will win you some coin. But you would give it back in the NFL as the Doofus went 8-10 or 44%. Ouch.
Now there is a reason why I like to have the GO JUMBO trip later in the season. For whatever reason the picking takes off later in the year. This year, starting with Halloween, the Mega Bets caught fire. In the college games the Doofus went 10-3 after raiding the kid’s candy haul and 6-3 on the NFL. That meant the Mega Bets went 16-6 or 73% during the Holiday season. That will put some nice presents under the Christmas tree.
So the key is to bet against the Doofus for the first half of the season and with it during the second half.
And while that rule never seems to change from year to year, there are some slight changes in the college game this year starting with the conference line ups
After years of massive realignments, this year has just a couple of tweaks. Navy goes from being an independent to joining the American conference. That means the AAC will have twelve teams and qualify for a championship game. The game will be December 5th at the home of the team with the best record.
The CUSA welcomes the UNC Charlotte this year. The 49ers got promoted from Div 1AA. That would have brought the CUSA up to 14 teams this year except that UAB decided to drop football. Overall that means that there are 128 Div 1A teams this year, the same as last year.
Only a few rule changes too. A key change was tabled. The NCAA was considering changing the illegal man downfield rule from 3 yards to 1. Auburn, Oregon, Texas A&M and others have made a living with this ruse. Send linemen down three yards to set up the run pass option. But after pressure from Gus Malzahn and Ole Miss HC Hugh Freeze among others, the proposal was tabled.
The Big Book of Guesses went 388-359-15 or 52% for the year including the bowl games. In the NFL the BBofG went 138-127-2 including the playoffs or 52% again. Basically break even after the spiff.
But, it’s not how you pick ‘em but how you bet ‘em that matters. So how did the Doofus do with the Mega Bets?
Overall in the college games the Doofus went 19-14 or 58%. That will win you some coin. But you would give it back in the NFL as the Doofus went 8-10 or 44%. Ouch.
Now there is a reason why I like to have the GO JUMBO trip later in the season. For whatever reason the picking takes off later in the year. This year, starting with Halloween, the Mega Bets caught fire. In the college games the Doofus went 10-3 after raiding the kid’s candy haul and 6-3 on the NFL. That meant the Mega Bets went 16-6 or 73% during the Holiday season. That will put some nice presents under the Christmas tree.
So the key is to bet against the Doofus for the first half of the season and with it during the second half.
And while that rule never seems to change from year to year, there are some slight changes in the college game this year starting with the conference line ups
After years of massive realignments, this year has just a couple of tweaks. Navy goes from being an independent to joining the American conference. That means the AAC will have twelve teams and qualify for a championship game. The game will be December 5th at the home of the team with the best record.
The CUSA welcomes the UNC Charlotte this year. The 49ers got promoted from Div 1AA. That would have brought the CUSA up to 14 teams this year except that UAB decided to drop football. Overall that means that there are 128 Div 1A teams this year, the same as last year.
Only a few rule changes too. A key change was tabled. The NCAA was considering changing the illegal man downfield rule from 3 yards to 1. Auburn, Oregon, Texas A&M and others have made a living with this ruse. Send linemen down three yards to set up the run pass option. But after pressure from Gus Malzahn and Ole Miss HC Hugh Freeze among others, the proposal was tabled.
Sorry Shalique - not sure if your face mask will be allowed this year The rules that were adopted were:
- An eight person officiating crew featuring a center judge will be allowed if a conference chooses.
- A 15 yard unsportsmanlike penalty will be called for pulling players off a pile such as after fumbles.
- Instant replay can be used on on-side kicks to see if a kicking team player blocked a receiving team player prior to the ball traveling 10 yards.
- Those wild overbuilt facemasks are now prohibited
No rules on wild outfits or behavior in the SportsBook though! Exactly 8 months from today the gang will be gathering for FFDY!!
And there will be plenty of great games on tap. But first, let’s start with who won’t be playing. No sense wasting time watching teams that won’t be in action. This year’s slackers are:
Boise State
Central Michigan
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech
San Diego State
Southern Miss
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Wait a minute – what – no Jackets? No wonder Bruce is going to pass this year. Looks like he is go to be trying for some quality time with Mrs. Bruce.
Going to miss seeing Boise State and Georgia Southern too - especially the Eagles. They run the triple option to perfection.
Joe will miss the Spaztecs but as for the rest of the idlers – yawn. Maybe Va Tech, but not much going to be missed.
Prior to the festivities starting on Thursday night, four teams from the MAC will already have played.
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Ohio
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois and Toledo are solid but, once again, not much missed.
Which means that two teams who missed last year’s action will be in play this year – UConn and Michigan.
Which also means that the Big Al rule will be in effect this year. Mrs. Joe, don’t even pretend to bet on the Huskies! Big Al looks at intent every bit as much as action. I’m not about to bail you out if you try a Husky head fake bet.
But the real fun is rooting against scUM. Expectations are high for Harbaught’s boys and they are sure to disappoint. Just hope the game is not on at the same time as State’s
- An eight person officiating crew featuring a center judge will be allowed if a conference chooses.
- A 15 yard unsportsmanlike penalty will be called for pulling players off a pile such as after fumbles.
- Instant replay can be used on on-side kicks to see if a kicking team player blocked a receiving team player prior to the ball traveling 10 yards.
- Those wild overbuilt facemasks are now prohibited
No rules on wild outfits or behavior in the SportsBook though! Exactly 8 months from today the gang will be gathering for FFDY!!
And there will be plenty of great games on tap. But first, let’s start with who won’t be playing. No sense wasting time watching teams that won’t be in action. This year’s slackers are:
Boise State
Central Michigan
Georgia Southern
Georgia Tech
San Diego State
Southern Miss
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Wait a minute – what – no Jackets? No wonder Bruce is going to pass this year. Looks like he is go to be trying for some quality time with Mrs. Bruce.
Going to miss seeing Boise State and Georgia Southern too - especially the Eagles. They run the triple option to perfection.
Joe will miss the Spaztecs but as for the rest of the idlers – yawn. Maybe Va Tech, but not much going to be missed.
Prior to the festivities starting on Thursday night, four teams from the MAC will already have played.
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Ohio
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois and Toledo are solid but, once again, not much missed.
Which means that two teams who missed last year’s action will be in play this year – UConn and Michigan.
Which also means that the Big Al rule will be in effect this year. Mrs. Joe, don’t even pretend to bet on the Huskies! Big Al looks at intent every bit as much as action. I’m not about to bail you out if you try a Husky head fake bet.
But the real fun is rooting against scUM. Expectations are high for Harbaught’s boys and they are sure to disappoint. Just hope the game is not on at the same time as State’s
Baylor outraced KSU 38-27 last year The gang starts arriving on Thursday which has five games on tap:
Baylor @ Kansas State
Buffalo @ Kent State
Ball State @ Western Michigan
Arkansas State @ Appalachian State
Mississippi State @ Missouri
Huge game in Manhattan with what should be a critical game in the Big Twelve race.
And the other MSU vs Missouri game should be interesting to watch too. Thursday should be fun.
Friday’s game will be:
Temple @ SMU
OK, guess I will put down a small wager before heading over to the Ri Ra.
Then it will be the big day with lots of action.
Here are all the college games scheduled for Saturday:
American
South Florida @ East Carolina
Cincinnati @ Houston
Navy @ Memphis
Connecticut @ Tulane
Central Florida @ Tulsa
ACC
North Carolina St @ Boston College
Florida State @ Clemson
Syracuse @ Louisville
Virginia @ Miami (FL)
Duke @ North Carolina
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh
Big Ten
Iowa @ Indiana
Wisconsin @ Maryland
Rutgers @ Michigan
Michigan State @ Nebraska
Penn State @ Northwestern
Minnesota @ Ohio State
Illinois @ Purdue
Big 12
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
TCU @ Oklahoma State
Kansas @ Texas
Texas Tech @ West Virginia
CUSA
UNC Charlotte @ Florida Intl
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech
Marshall @ Middle Tenn St
Old Dominion @ UT San Antonio
Rice @ UTEP
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky
MAC
Akron @ Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH)
Mountain West
Army @ Air Force
Nevada @ Fresno State
Utah State @ New Mexico
BYU @ San Jose State
Hawaii @ UNLV
Colorado State @ Wyoming
PAC 12
Stanford @ Colorado
California @ Oregon
UCLA @ Oregon State
Arizona @ Southern Cal
Utah @ Washington
Arizona State @ Washington State
Sun Belt
UL Lafayette @ Georgia State
Idaho @ South Alabama
New Mexico State @ Texas State
UL Monroe @ Troy
SEC
LSU @ Alabama
Vanderbilt @ Florida
Kentucky @ Georgia
Arkansas @ Mississippi
South Carolina @ Tennessee
Auburn @ Texas A&M
Baylor @ Kansas State
Buffalo @ Kent State
Ball State @ Western Michigan
Arkansas State @ Appalachian State
Mississippi State @ Missouri
Huge game in Manhattan with what should be a critical game in the Big Twelve race.
And the other MSU vs Missouri game should be interesting to watch too. Thursday should be fun.
Friday’s game will be:
Temple @ SMU
OK, guess I will put down a small wager before heading over to the Ri Ra.
Then it will be the big day with lots of action.
Here are all the college games scheduled for Saturday:
American
South Florida @ East Carolina
Cincinnati @ Houston
Navy @ Memphis
Connecticut @ Tulane
Central Florida @ Tulsa
ACC
North Carolina St @ Boston College
Florida State @ Clemson
Syracuse @ Louisville
Virginia @ Miami (FL)
Duke @ North Carolina
Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh
Big Ten
Iowa @ Indiana
Wisconsin @ Maryland
Rutgers @ Michigan
Michigan State @ Nebraska
Penn State @ Northwestern
Minnesota @ Ohio State
Illinois @ Purdue
Big 12
Iowa State @ Oklahoma
TCU @ Oklahoma State
Kansas @ Texas
Texas Tech @ West Virginia
CUSA
UNC Charlotte @ Florida Intl
North Texas @ Louisiana Tech
Marshall @ Middle Tenn St
Old Dominion @ UT San Antonio
Rice @ UTEP
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky
MAC
Akron @ Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan @ Miami (OH)
Mountain West
Army @ Air Force
Nevada @ Fresno State
Utah State @ New Mexico
BYU @ San Jose State
Hawaii @ UNLV
Colorado State @ Wyoming
PAC 12
Stanford @ Colorado
California @ Oregon
UCLA @ Oregon State
Arizona @ Southern Cal
Utah @ Washington
Arizona State @ Washington State
Sun Belt
UL Lafayette @ Georgia State
Idaho @ South Alabama
New Mexico State @ Texas State
UL Monroe @ Troy
SEC
LSU @ Alabama
Vanderbilt @ Florida
Kentucky @ Georgia
Arkansas @ Mississippi
South Carolina @ Tennessee
Auburn @ Texas A&M
Can Nebraska play a pro style offense? Of course, the big game will be MSU at Nebraska. Last year, State jumped out to a big lead and then hung on to win 27-22 getting the win but not the cover. This year Nebraska will be missing RB Ameer Abdullah and DE Randy Gregory. Not only that they have a new head coach in, the solid but nothing special, Mike Reilly. Reilly is installing a pro style offense which may or may not fit the talent he has on hand. Look for State to have to give some points on the road this year.
Michigan will host Rutgers who beat them 26-24 last year. Here’s to two in a row. Dobby concurs
The other big game in the BIG is Minnesota heading to Ohio State. Last year's game was a classic in the snow. Minnesota cut a 17 point lead down to 7 with a minute to go but missed on the onside kick as the Buck nuts won 31-24. The Gophers, and the Doofus, did cover the 11.5 point spread though.
In the ACC is a rematch of the Wandstedt game. Back in 2009, I bet heavily on Pitt to cover 6.5 vs Notre Dame. Pitt stopped ND deep in Irish territory late in the game and up by 5. But rather than kick the covering FG, HC Dave Wannstedt went into the victory formation leading to the phrase – getting Wannstedted.
The big game in the ACC though will be FSU travelling to Clemson. Last year, Jameis was suspended for a half and Clemson almost pulled the upset. This year, Jameis will be out for the entire game. Can the Tigers get the leg up on the ACC championship?
Ellis won’t care. He’ll be fixated on Duke @ North Carolina.
Dwink will put some money on Army to cover against Air Force. I’ll just keep the money and tell him I made the bet. Army is 3-7 ATS versus the Falcons.
Cal versus Oregon could be an over play. Last year’s score was Ducks 59 Cal 41.
The biggest game in the Pac 12 will be USC hosting Arizona. Last year, the Wildcats were the PAC 12 South’s representative on the championship game. USC is expected to challenge for the title this year. Southern Cal won last year 28-26 and is 8-2 ATS vs Arizona.
Michigan will host Rutgers who beat them 26-24 last year. Here’s to two in a row. Dobby concurs
The other big game in the BIG is Minnesota heading to Ohio State. Last year's game was a classic in the snow. Minnesota cut a 17 point lead down to 7 with a minute to go but missed on the onside kick as the Buck nuts won 31-24. The Gophers, and the Doofus, did cover the 11.5 point spread though.
In the ACC is a rematch of the Wandstedt game. Back in 2009, I bet heavily on Pitt to cover 6.5 vs Notre Dame. Pitt stopped ND deep in Irish territory late in the game and up by 5. But rather than kick the covering FG, HC Dave Wannstedt went into the victory formation leading to the phrase – getting Wannstedted.
The big game in the ACC though will be FSU travelling to Clemson. Last year, Jameis was suspended for a half and Clemson almost pulled the upset. This year, Jameis will be out for the entire game. Can the Tigers get the leg up on the ACC championship?
Ellis won’t care. He’ll be fixated on Duke @ North Carolina.
Dwink will put some money on Army to cover against Air Force. I’ll just keep the money and tell him I made the bet. Army is 3-7 ATS versus the Falcons.
Cal versus Oregon could be an over play. Last year’s score was Ducks 59 Cal 41.
The biggest game in the Pac 12 will be USC hosting Arizona. Last year, the Wildcats were the PAC 12 South’s representative on the championship game. USC is expected to challenge for the title this year. Southern Cal won last year 28-26 and is 8-2 ATS vs Arizona.
Auburn will be out for revenge this year Plenty of great action in the SEC starting with Auburn facing Texas A&M in College Station. Last year the Aggies upset the Tigers 41-38. The Big Guy’s boys will be looking out for revenge this year.
Arkansas started getting Brett Bielema’s offense late last year as they made a run to respectability. If they continue to progress this game could be huge in the SEC West. Arkansas is 7-3 ATS vs the Rebs.
But probably not as huge as Bama hosting LSU. These games have been classics and usually have playoff implications. No doubt, this will be the game that will be on the biggest screen and will have the sound on.
I was hoping that Hawaii would have a home game for a nice night game but the Rainbow Warriors will playing down the street at UNLV. Guess we can hit the bars a bit earlier than usual this year.
So plenty of action on tap! I haven’t seen any good rates for the Westgate Resort yet but they should be coming in the next few months.
GO JUMBO!
Arkansas started getting Brett Bielema’s offense late last year as they made a run to respectability. If they continue to progress this game could be huge in the SEC West. Arkansas is 7-3 ATS vs the Rebs.
But probably not as huge as Bama hosting LSU. These games have been classics and usually have playoff implications. No doubt, this will be the game that will be on the biggest screen and will have the sound on.
I was hoping that Hawaii would have a home game for a nice night game but the Rainbow Warriors will playing down the street at UNLV. Guess we can hit the bars a bit earlier than usual this year.
So plenty of action on tap! I haven’t seen any good rates for the Westgate Resort yet but they should be coming in the next few months.
GO JUMBO!
