The 2014 Big Book of Guesses is updated and ready for action Enough sturm und drang about moving. Time to discuss more important things. Like football and VEGAS!
Housing is temporary. Vegas is eternal. And football is life. (And I am on retainer to write bumper stickers)
The College and NFL schedules have been out for several weeks now so it’s time to check out the GO JUMBO week matchups.
To get things started, here is the Week 12 schedule. Of course, it also includes the records against the spread over the last nine years, times where available and last year’s scores too. Teams coming off an upset from the prior year are a great angle to play.
Housing is temporary. Vegas is eternal. And football is life. (And I am on retainer to write bumper stickers)
The College and NFL schedules have been out for several weeks now so it’s time to check out the GO JUMBO week matchups.
To get things started, here is the Week 12 schedule. Of course, it also includes the records against the spread over the last nine years, times where available and last year’s scores too. Teams coming off an upset from the prior year are a great angle to play.
| Predictions Week 12 nov 15 2014 Vegas Baby.xlsx |
Vegas is getting ready - are you? Let’s start with who has a bye. No sense wasting your time following teams who won’t play.
By conference they are
Connecticut AAC
Houston AAC
Boston College ACC
Louisville ACC
Syracuse ACC
Virginia ACC
Michigan B10
Purdue B10
Baylor B12
Iowa State B12
Kansas State B12
West Virginia B12
Florida Atlantic CUSA
Louisiana Tech CUSA
Old Dominion CUSA
UAB CUSA
Ohio MAC
Colorado State MWC
Fresno State MWC
Wyoming MWC
Colorado P12
Oregon P12
UCLA P12
Washington State P12
Georgia State SB
New Mexico State SB
Mississippi SEC
Vanderbilt SEC
By conference they are
Connecticut AAC
Houston AAC
Boston College ACC
Louisville ACC
Syracuse ACC
Virginia ACC
Michigan B10
Purdue B10
Baylor B12
Iowa State B12
Kansas State B12
West Virginia B12
Florida Atlantic CUSA
Louisiana Tech CUSA
Old Dominion CUSA
UAB CUSA
Ohio MAC
Colorado State MWC
Fresno State MWC
Wyoming MWC
Colorado P12
Oregon P12
UCLA P12
Washington State P12
Georgia State SB
New Mexico State SB
Mississippi SEC
Vanderbilt SEC
Who needs football? First, it means the Big Al rule will not be in effect for the third time in six years. Looks like Big Al can only handle games about every other year. Joe likes to get my heart racing by claiming he is going to bet against UConn. Won’t work this year Joe. Then again maybe UConn is wiped out from winning the Men's and Women's basketball championships.
And Michigan won’t be playing either. Crap. I like
booing the blue almost as much as I like rooting
for State.
A few really bad teams (against the spread that is) are also idle. UAB and New Mexico State both went 7-15-0 ATS over the last two years, while Virginia went an even more pathetic 6-15-1. Too bad. Betting against bad teams can be even more lucrative than betting on good ones.
There are some good teams that will be sitting Vegas week out too- Baylor (17-5 ATS), UCLA (15-9) and Ole Miss
(14-8). Those teams are exciting and fun to root for. And believe it or not Florida Atlantic, as bad as their record was, was 17-6 ATS the last two years. It takes extra large cojones to bet on a real bad team to cover. Bigger cojones than I have. Fortunately I won’t be forced to unzip and bet on the Owls.
Old Dominion joins Division 1A this year and promptly sits out its first GO JUMBO weekend. Rats. I was looking
forward to dropping a few nickels on a good Div 1AA team making the movin’ on up to the big leagues. Maybe next year.
The MAC, as usual, late in the year schedules games on Tuesday and Wednesdays to get some prime time coverage. But it also means that eight teams will have already played before we descend on the LVH
SuperBook. This year they are – Akron, Buffalo, Toledo, Northern Illinois (another strong team ATS – 16-6-1! damn),
Kent State, Bowling Green (17-7), Ball State (also 16-6-1) and UMass. Lots of money to be made in betting the MAC. Maybe I’ll have to go even earlier this year.
But that still leaves tons of great teams to watch and bet on! For those of us who will be arriving on Thursday –
there is a pretty respectable slate of games. Cincinnati hosts East Carolina to get things started. Two solid teams. They both went 9-3 during the regular season. ECU went 2-1 against the vaunted ACC berating North Carolina and NC State while losing a squeaker to Va Tech. ECU was 9th in points scored last season while Cincinnati was 14th is
fewest points allowed. Should be a dandy.
Then Southern Miss heads to UT San Antonio. I know – a yawner. But not for me. I like rooting for the Road Runners. They went 8-4 ATS last year. Southern Miss has been down right putrid. The Golden Eagles have gone 3-9 ATS for two years straight. You know what’s going to be on my betting slip.
The final college game to kick off will be Cal @ USC. I’m trying to get the Sheriff of Malibu to make a repeat
appearance to watch this game. Bruce is working him over hard too. But it could be a tough sell. Cal is 1-8 ATS
vs the Prophylactics since 2005.
The Pros will also be in action as Buffalo travels to Miami. Buffalo’s passing attack was awful last year ranking 28th overall. So they drafted Sammy Watkins. He is electric. Only problem is that EJ Manuel is still throwing him the
ball. Of course, Miami is not that much better with Ryan annehill under center. Looks like I might be keeping my one good eye on the college games.
And Michigan won’t be playing either. Crap. I like
booing the blue almost as much as I like rooting
for State.
A few really bad teams (against the spread that is) are also idle. UAB and New Mexico State both went 7-15-0 ATS over the last two years, while Virginia went an even more pathetic 6-15-1. Too bad. Betting against bad teams can be even more lucrative than betting on good ones.
There are some good teams that will be sitting Vegas week out too- Baylor (17-5 ATS), UCLA (15-9) and Ole Miss
(14-8). Those teams are exciting and fun to root for. And believe it or not Florida Atlantic, as bad as their record was, was 17-6 ATS the last two years. It takes extra large cojones to bet on a real bad team to cover. Bigger cojones than I have. Fortunately I won’t be forced to unzip and bet on the Owls.
Old Dominion joins Division 1A this year and promptly sits out its first GO JUMBO weekend. Rats. I was looking
forward to dropping a few nickels on a good Div 1AA team making the movin’ on up to the big leagues. Maybe next year.
The MAC, as usual, late in the year schedules games on Tuesday and Wednesdays to get some prime time coverage. But it also means that eight teams will have already played before we descend on the LVH
SuperBook. This year they are – Akron, Buffalo, Toledo, Northern Illinois (another strong team ATS – 16-6-1! damn),
Kent State, Bowling Green (17-7), Ball State (also 16-6-1) and UMass. Lots of money to be made in betting the MAC. Maybe I’ll have to go even earlier this year.
But that still leaves tons of great teams to watch and bet on! For those of us who will be arriving on Thursday –
there is a pretty respectable slate of games. Cincinnati hosts East Carolina to get things started. Two solid teams. They both went 9-3 during the regular season. ECU went 2-1 against the vaunted ACC berating North Carolina and NC State while losing a squeaker to Va Tech. ECU was 9th in points scored last season while Cincinnati was 14th is
fewest points allowed. Should be a dandy.
Then Southern Miss heads to UT San Antonio. I know – a yawner. But not for me. I like rooting for the Road Runners. They went 8-4 ATS last year. Southern Miss has been down right putrid. The Golden Eagles have gone 3-9 ATS for two years straight. You know what’s going to be on my betting slip.
The final college game to kick off will be Cal @ USC. I’m trying to get the Sheriff of Malibu to make a repeat
appearance to watch this game. Bruce is working him over hard too. But it could be a tough sell. Cal is 1-8 ATS
vs the Prophylactics since 2005.
The Pros will also be in action as Buffalo travels to Miami. Buffalo’s passing attack was awful last year ranking 28th overall. So they drafted Sammy Watkins. He is electric. Only problem is that EJ Manuel is still throwing him the
ball. Of course, Miami is not that much better with Ryan annehill under center. Looks like I might be keeping my one good eye on the college games.
Sweet Lid - even better guts! We’re still for good ideas for the Friday day activities. Drinking, of
course, will be involved. Just not sure what we are going to be doing
while having a beverage in hand. Hoover Dam tour? Can you tour Rick’s
Restoration or that museum run by the guy with the big hat? I’m open
to ideas.
Whatever we do, I’ll be sure to be
in front of a TV that night to catch the Tulsa take on Central Florida.
For all the attention that QB Blake Bortles got last year, it’s the Golden Knights defense that keeps them on top. Tulsa is
perennial CUSA powerhouse typically winning 8-10 games a year. But last year the stumbled and stumbled badly going 3-9. My guess is that they will return to form in what could be an interesting inter-league matchup.
Then it’s FFDY!!
Lots of great games on tap - starting with Michigan State at Maryland. As is the custom, we picked the Spartans on an away game. Normally, this year would rotate to MSU being at scUM. But with the revamped schedule due to
Maryland and Rutgers joining the BIG and establishing east and west divisions (too many good teams in the
east Delaney!) State hosts scUM two years in a row. So, this year we chose MSU @ Maryland. The game is late
enough for Sully to get by his grandkids birthday (you better show up Old Man) and it’s that time of year when bad teams give up, but, before rivalry games where anything can happen.
And, as Woz pointed out - the BIG has already set this game up for some night action. The game will be on at
8:00 EST and 5:00 local. Nothing like having a few extra free cocktails before game time. The gang will be in rare form by kickoff.
For some warm up games – how about Va Tech at Duke. The
Dookies were the surprise team last year going to the ACC championship game (where they got blown out by FSU 45-7). Lots of teams will be looking for revenge this year including the Hokies.
Doubt if Ellis will make it this year but North Carolina will be hosting Pitt and the Sax Man will be looking for us to put some money down on Ga Tech taking on Clemson on the Flats.
The big game in the ACC will be Miami (FL) hosting Florida State. Last year was a blow out with the Noles pounding
Miami 41-14. Might want to take the Canes getting some points this year.
In the Big 12, a couple of typically exciting games with Texas @ Oklahoma State and Oklahoma @ Texas Tech.
Not sure if Dwink is coming but, if not, I’m sure I’ll have to put some pocket change down for him as Army travels to Western Kentucky. The Pill Poppers lost their head coach Bobby Petrino to Louisville during the offseason so the
Black Knights may have a chance.
course, will be involved. Just not sure what we are going to be doing
while having a beverage in hand. Hoover Dam tour? Can you tour Rick’s
Restoration or that museum run by the guy with the big hat? I’m open
to ideas.
Whatever we do, I’ll be sure to be
in front of a TV that night to catch the Tulsa take on Central Florida.
For all the attention that QB Blake Bortles got last year, it’s the Golden Knights defense that keeps them on top. Tulsa is
perennial CUSA powerhouse typically winning 8-10 games a year. But last year the stumbled and stumbled badly going 3-9. My guess is that they will return to form in what could be an interesting inter-league matchup.
Then it’s FFDY!!
Lots of great games on tap - starting with Michigan State at Maryland. As is the custom, we picked the Spartans on an away game. Normally, this year would rotate to MSU being at scUM. But with the revamped schedule due to
Maryland and Rutgers joining the BIG and establishing east and west divisions (too many good teams in the
east Delaney!) State hosts scUM two years in a row. So, this year we chose MSU @ Maryland. The game is late
enough for Sully to get by his grandkids birthday (you better show up Old Man) and it’s that time of year when bad teams give up, but, before rivalry games where anything can happen.
And, as Woz pointed out - the BIG has already set this game up for some night action. The game will be on at
8:00 EST and 5:00 local. Nothing like having a few extra free cocktails before game time. The gang will be in rare form by kickoff.
For some warm up games – how about Va Tech at Duke. The
Dookies were the surprise team last year going to the ACC championship game (where they got blown out by FSU 45-7). Lots of teams will be looking for revenge this year including the Hokies.
Doubt if Ellis will make it this year but North Carolina will be hosting Pitt and the Sax Man will be looking for us to put some money down on Ga Tech taking on Clemson on the Flats.
The big game in the ACC will be Miami (FL) hosting Florida State. Last year was a blow out with the Noles pounding
Miami 41-14. Might want to take the Canes getting some points this year.
In the Big 12, a couple of typically exciting games with Texas @ Oklahoma State and Oklahoma @ Texas Tech.
Not sure if Dwink is coming but, if not, I’m sure I’ll have to put some pocket change down for him as Army travels to Western Kentucky. The Pill Poppers lost their head coach Bobby Petrino to Louisville during the offseason so the
Black Knights may have a chance.
Utah spilled Stanford last year. The Cardinal will be looking for revenge In the PAC 12, there is another revenge game on tap as Stanford hosts Utah. Last year, the Utes beat the Cardinal 27-21 as 7.5 point dogs. Could be a Mega Bet in the making. I’ll reach out to the Sheriff for his take on Washington @ Arizona and Arizona State @ Oregon State.
In the SEC, the Big Guy returns home as Auburn visits Georgia. Some other interesting games include what could be
a key SEC east matchup with South Carolina visiting Florida. And Missouri heading to College Station to take on Texas A&M looks to be worth watching too.
LSU is 7-2 against Arkansas ATS over the last nine years but the Razorbacks are undefeated during the GO JUMBO week. Not sure which way to go with that game. And the only other team with a perfect GO JUMBO record, Tennessee, hosts Kentucky. Every year Pat puts money down on the Vols and every
year he comes up empty. Maybe they can finally get over the hump against the Wildcats.
In the Big Ten, Bruce and I will be warming up for the Spartan game by cheering on Northwestern to beat the Domers. No taking points on this game. I’m going with the Purple Haze and the money line.
There is also a key BIG West matchup as Nebraska travels to Camp Randall. I despise Bo Pelini so. Go Badgers!
Chris is starting to make some noise about joining this year. If so, two of his favorite teams will be in action. USC will
have already played (and likely won) on Thursday. Then Ohio State travels to the Land of 10,000 lakes to play the
Goofers on Saturday. Chris will be saved the embarrassment of having to cheer for his final favorite team, Purdue, as they decided to sit out this year’s GO JUMBO trip.
The Mountain West usually provides the night cap game. Hopefully this year it will be San Diego State playing on
the smurf turf against Boise State.
And as tradition, after all the games are done, we will gather in the little bar behind the SuperBook, give a toast to Caril and go over our best and worst picks of the day and make our predictions on the NFL.
On Sunday, we will get down extra early to save some tables and get ready for some more football action. Pat will
have destroyed a good portion on the LVH buffet as he attempts to lay down a good base before a second day
of cocktails and cigars. You may want to get there early while there is some food left.
Detroit will be long out of the playoff hunt when they travel to Arizona in a late game. The Cardinals went 10-6 last year but missed the playoffs as they have the fortune of being in the same division as San Francisco and Seattle.
I’ll root for the Leos but probably pass on dropping some coin on them.
Pat will be looking at his time zone angle as three west coast teams play 1:00 games. San Fran visits the G Men
(New York has had success against the Niners going 4-1 ATS), Seattle travels to Kansas City and Denver goes to
St Louis.
But the best game will be saved for last. It’s a rematch of a classic from back in 2009. The famous Indianapolis vs New England 4th and 2 game. And just as I that year it was the GO JUMBO weekend. The gang had thinned out to
catch the red eye back home but some of us stalwarts like to stick around for the Sunday night game.
Five ears ago, Brady and Manning were at the peak of their rivalry. The undefeated Colts were playing the 6-2 New
England Patriots. Colts RB Joseph Addai scored a touchdown with 2:23 in the game left to the cut the lead to 34-28
Pats. After the kick off, the Pats were backed up deep on their side of the field at their 28. It was 4th and two. Bill Belichick elected to go for it! Everyone was stunned. The Sports Book had a WTF look.
Brady completed a pass to halfback Kevin Faulk. But Faulk didn’t appear to make a clean catch and was immediately driven backwards. Tension mounted as the refs reviewed the pay. After what seemed like forever they ruled that Faulk had not secured possession of the ball until he was short of the first down marker, resulting in a turnover on downs.
This gave Manning the chance he needed. The game was on the line and he had the ball on the Patriots' 29-yard line with two minutes remaining - trailing by six.
Now things were getting real exciting. Two plays later the Colts were at the one yard line. Manning dropped back and TD!!. Complete to Reggie Wayne. The score was now tied 34-34 with 13 seconds left. Kicker Matt Stover (filling
in for Adam Vinatieri), made the extra point to make the score 35-34 Indy. It was as close to a walk off extra point as I can recall.
I was bummed though. I had the Pats and getting a point. It was a push but Belichick had blown my win.
The Colts have a new coach and new QB but the Pats are pretty much the same team. Not sure which way I will go
this year. But I’m sure the game will be a dandy to round out the GO JUMBO weekend.
Remember – it’s November 15, 2014 at the LVH
In the SEC, the Big Guy returns home as Auburn visits Georgia. Some other interesting games include what could be
a key SEC east matchup with South Carolina visiting Florida. And Missouri heading to College Station to take on Texas A&M looks to be worth watching too.
LSU is 7-2 against Arkansas ATS over the last nine years but the Razorbacks are undefeated during the GO JUMBO week. Not sure which way to go with that game. And the only other team with a perfect GO JUMBO record, Tennessee, hosts Kentucky. Every year Pat puts money down on the Vols and every
year he comes up empty. Maybe they can finally get over the hump against the Wildcats.
In the Big Ten, Bruce and I will be warming up for the Spartan game by cheering on Northwestern to beat the Domers. No taking points on this game. I’m going with the Purple Haze and the money line.
There is also a key BIG West matchup as Nebraska travels to Camp Randall. I despise Bo Pelini so. Go Badgers!
Chris is starting to make some noise about joining this year. If so, two of his favorite teams will be in action. USC will
have already played (and likely won) on Thursday. Then Ohio State travels to the Land of 10,000 lakes to play the
Goofers on Saturday. Chris will be saved the embarrassment of having to cheer for his final favorite team, Purdue, as they decided to sit out this year’s GO JUMBO trip.
The Mountain West usually provides the night cap game. Hopefully this year it will be San Diego State playing on
the smurf turf against Boise State.
And as tradition, after all the games are done, we will gather in the little bar behind the SuperBook, give a toast to Caril and go over our best and worst picks of the day and make our predictions on the NFL.
On Sunday, we will get down extra early to save some tables and get ready for some more football action. Pat will
have destroyed a good portion on the LVH buffet as he attempts to lay down a good base before a second day
of cocktails and cigars. You may want to get there early while there is some food left.
Detroit will be long out of the playoff hunt when they travel to Arizona in a late game. The Cardinals went 10-6 last year but missed the playoffs as they have the fortune of being in the same division as San Francisco and Seattle.
I’ll root for the Leos but probably pass on dropping some coin on them.
Pat will be looking at his time zone angle as three west coast teams play 1:00 games. San Fran visits the G Men
(New York has had success against the Niners going 4-1 ATS), Seattle travels to Kansas City and Denver goes to
St Louis.
But the best game will be saved for last. It’s a rematch of a classic from back in 2009. The famous Indianapolis vs New England 4th and 2 game. And just as I that year it was the GO JUMBO weekend. The gang had thinned out to
catch the red eye back home but some of us stalwarts like to stick around for the Sunday night game.
Five ears ago, Brady and Manning were at the peak of their rivalry. The undefeated Colts were playing the 6-2 New
England Patriots. Colts RB Joseph Addai scored a touchdown with 2:23 in the game left to the cut the lead to 34-28
Pats. After the kick off, the Pats were backed up deep on their side of the field at their 28. It was 4th and two. Bill Belichick elected to go for it! Everyone was stunned. The Sports Book had a WTF look.
Brady completed a pass to halfback Kevin Faulk. But Faulk didn’t appear to make a clean catch and was immediately driven backwards. Tension mounted as the refs reviewed the pay. After what seemed like forever they ruled that Faulk had not secured possession of the ball until he was short of the first down marker, resulting in a turnover on downs.
This gave Manning the chance he needed. The game was on the line and he had the ball on the Patriots' 29-yard line with two minutes remaining - trailing by six.
Now things were getting real exciting. Two plays later the Colts were at the one yard line. Manning dropped back and TD!!. Complete to Reggie Wayne. The score was now tied 34-34 with 13 seconds left. Kicker Matt Stover (filling
in for Adam Vinatieri), made the extra point to make the score 35-34 Indy. It was as close to a walk off extra point as I can recall.
I was bummed though. I had the Pats and getting a point. It was a push but Belichick had blown my win.
The Colts have a new coach and new QB but the Pats are pretty much the same team. Not sure which way I will go
this year. But I’m sure the game will be a dandy to round out the GO JUMBO weekend.
Remember – it’s November 15, 2014 at the LVH
