Week 8 has 4 ranked matchups this week including a battle of unbeatens:
Penn State +5 @ Ohio State – It’s the first game of the three way round robin tournament to decide the Big 10 east. Win this, beat scUM and you will be the heavy favorite in Indy to go the CFP.
Penn State has a better than it looked at the time win over West Virginia and an absolute pasting of Iowa. But Ohio State is more battle tested with a dramatic win over ND in the Domers crib along with wins over Maryland and Purdue. Compare that to Penn State’s 107th ranked strength of schedule.
Sure Penn State has the nations leading pass defense but they have faced a whole lot of nothing passing attacks. Any time Iowa passes, they wave to the cancer kids. The Nits can get to the QB though and the Bucknuts are a bit shaky in their pass blocking. And OSU QB Kyle McCord has been a bit turnover prone with two fumbles in the last two games.
Penn State meanwhile has done a masterful job protecting QB Drew Allar and the football. The Nittany Lions have just three giveaways in six games, and Allar has yet to throw an interception in his entire career.
Penn State is very comfortable just dinking and dunking to move the football. Allar has attempted just 19 passes 181 total attempts that go beyond 15 yards.
Two teams with great defenses, playing with young quarterbacks. I’ll take the points and the under 45.5 for a quatloos.
Penn State +5 @ Ohio State – It’s the first game of the three way round robin tournament to decide the Big 10 east. Win this, beat scUM and you will be the heavy favorite in Indy to go the CFP.
Penn State has a better than it looked at the time win over West Virginia and an absolute pasting of Iowa. But Ohio State is more battle tested with a dramatic win over ND in the Domers crib along with wins over Maryland and Purdue. Compare that to Penn State’s 107th ranked strength of schedule.
Sure Penn State has the nations leading pass defense but they have faced a whole lot of nothing passing attacks. Any time Iowa passes, they wave to the cancer kids. The Nits can get to the QB though and the Bucknuts are a bit shaky in their pass blocking. And OSU QB Kyle McCord has been a bit turnover prone with two fumbles in the last two games.
Penn State meanwhile has done a masterful job protecting QB Drew Allar and the football. The Nittany Lions have just three giveaways in six games, and Allar has yet to throw an interception in his entire career.
Penn State is very comfortable just dinking and dunking to move the football. Allar has attempted just 19 passes 181 total attempts that go beyond 15 yards.
Two teams with great defenses, playing with young quarterbacks. I’ll take the points and the under 45.5 for a quatloos.
Then there' the afternoon matchup of:
Alabama -8.5 vs Tennessee - Before Alabama enters a bye week to prepare for LSU, they are in a revenge spot comes against Tennessee after the Tide suffered a dramatic 52-49 loss to the Vols in Knoxville last year.
Bama has quietly gone about its business after losing to Texas in week 2 and nearly falling on their Crimson Tides against USF, reeling off four straight SEC wins.
The Vols Tennessee ae coming off a one-possession victory against Texas A&M and a good win over a solid South Carolina. This is not last years Vol squad. While 2022 version was full of defensive ineptitude and offense explosives, this version of the Volunteers have been dominant in the trenches.
QB Joe Milton despite a cannon for an arm, still can’t throw a lick downfield. None of their WRs average more than 2 yards per route run. Bama excels in pass defense and limiting explosive plays.
Where the Tide struggles is in protecting the QB. The Crimson Tide's offensive line ranks 127th in pressures allowed. The Volunteers are top-15 in most defensive statistics with Edge James Pearce Jr. ranked as the top edge player in PFF's pass rush productivity rankings, racking up 32 pressures and 18 quarterback hurries. Tide QB Jalen Milroe will be under pressure all game.
I’m going to stay away from the spread and add Bama to a money line parlay as they get get their revenge over Tennessee.
Alabama -8.5 vs Tennessee - Before Alabama enters a bye week to prepare for LSU, they are in a revenge spot comes against Tennessee after the Tide suffered a dramatic 52-49 loss to the Vols in Knoxville last year.
Bama has quietly gone about its business after losing to Texas in week 2 and nearly falling on their Crimson Tides against USF, reeling off four straight SEC wins.
The Vols Tennessee ae coming off a one-possession victory against Texas A&M and a good win over a solid South Carolina. This is not last years Vol squad. While 2022 version was full of defensive ineptitude and offense explosives, this version of the Volunteers have been dominant in the trenches.
QB Joe Milton despite a cannon for an arm, still can’t throw a lick downfield. None of their WRs average more than 2 yards per route run. Bama excels in pass defense and limiting explosive plays.
Where the Tide struggles is in protecting the QB. The Crimson Tide's offensive line ranks 127th in pressures allowed. The Volunteers are top-15 in most defensive statistics with Edge James Pearce Jr. ranked as the top edge player in PFF's pass rush productivity rankings, racking up 32 pressures and 18 quarterback hurries. Tide QB Jalen Milroe will be under pressure all game.
I’m going to stay away from the spread and add Bama to a money line parlay as they get get their revenge over Tennessee.
Then there are two evening ranked matchup games starting with:
Duke +14.0 @ Florida State – Win this and Duke HC Mike Elko will likely be coaching somewhere else next year. Maybe even State.
Elko’s Blue Devils are off to a strong start to the season having played three ranked teams and losing only to ND 21-14. The defense has led the way allowing only 9.8 PPG, 4th best in the country. The pass defense has been superb ranking eighth in the nation allowing just 164.7 passing yards per game. Duke DB Myles Jones is rated the second-rated cornerback in FBS and will likely square up with Florida State WR and Spartan transfer, Keon Coleman.
The question for Duke is whether QB Riley Leonard will play the game. He severely hurt his ankle and sat out last weeks win over NC State. Even if he plays he may be limited.
Florida State has already passed its two biggest tests of the season, beating LSU and Clemson. Now, it's in a perfect position to go undefeated and potentially reach the College Football Playoff. The Seminoles destroyed Syracuse, 41-3, in their last game and will be looking to do the same here to pick up another resume-building win.
FSU’s offense is good but relies too much on explosive plays. The problem raised its head in their game against Clemson, as the Tigers didn't allow them to pick up those explosive plays with FSU ekeing out a controversial win. Duke's front seven has struggled to stop the run, so you'll see a high rush rate from the Seminoles on tonight.
In a low scoring game Ill take Duke to cover and the under 49.5
Duke +14.0 @ Florida State – Win this and Duke HC Mike Elko will likely be coaching somewhere else next year. Maybe even State.
Elko’s Blue Devils are off to a strong start to the season having played three ranked teams and losing only to ND 21-14. The defense has led the way allowing only 9.8 PPG, 4th best in the country. The pass defense has been superb ranking eighth in the nation allowing just 164.7 passing yards per game. Duke DB Myles Jones is rated the second-rated cornerback in FBS and will likely square up with Florida State WR and Spartan transfer, Keon Coleman.
The question for Duke is whether QB Riley Leonard will play the game. He severely hurt his ankle and sat out last weeks win over NC State. Even if he plays he may be limited.
Florida State has already passed its two biggest tests of the season, beating LSU and Clemson. Now, it's in a perfect position to go undefeated and potentially reach the College Football Playoff. The Seminoles destroyed Syracuse, 41-3, in their last game and will be looking to do the same here to pick up another resume-building win.
FSU’s offense is good but relies too much on explosive plays. The problem raised its head in their game against Clemson, as the Tigers didn't allow them to pick up those explosive plays with FSU ekeing out a controversial win. Duke's front seven has struggled to stop the run, so you'll see a high rush rate from the Seminoles on tonight.
In a low scoring game Ill take Duke to cover and the under 49.5
Utah +6.5 @ Southern Cal - Five Pac-12 teams have a realistic shot at making the College Football Playoff, as Utah and USC prepare to play a knockout game for a shot at the CFP.
USC will be joining the Big 10 next year and got a taste of Midwest defenses in a humbling loss to ND 48-20. The Condoms surrendered the ball five times and got hit with 11 tackles for a loss. Utah’s defense is better than the Domers.
Utah’s offense is a different story. Without star QB Cam Rising, the Utah offense is in the bottom 20 in Success Rate, pass explosives and Finishing Drives.
USC may struggle on defense but should be able to contain the Ute offense.
Although Utah doesn't consider this a rivalry game, this is the fourth time these teams have played over the span of the last two years with Southern Cal losing the previous three games.
In another low scoring game I’ll take Utah and the under 52.0
USC will be joining the Big 10 next year and got a taste of Midwest defenses in a humbling loss to ND 48-20. The Condoms surrendered the ball five times and got hit with 11 tackles for a loss. Utah’s defense is better than the Domers.
Utah’s offense is a different story. Without star QB Cam Rising, the Utah offense is in the bottom 20 in Success Rate, pass explosives and Finishing Drives.
USC may struggle on defense but should be able to contain the Ute offense.
Although Utah doesn't consider this a rivalry game, this is the fourth time these teams have played over the span of the last two years with Southern Cal losing the previous three games.
In another low scoring game I’ll take Utah and the under 52.0
Other investments I will be making this week include:
The rest of the money line parlay:
Bama over Tennessee
Texas over Houston
SMU over Temple (SMU won last night 55-0)
North Carolina over Virginia
San Jose State over Utah State - This is the low spread game in the parlay. These two teams are built largely from the same mold. They are both pass-focused offenses with defenses that are on the weaker side, particularly against the run. So I'll take SJSU QB Chevan Cordeiro over Utah State Cooper Legas.
The parlay pays out +123
The rest of the money line parlay:
Bama over Tennessee
Texas over Houston
SMU over Temple (SMU won last night 55-0)
North Carolina over Virginia
San Jose State over Utah State - This is the low spread game in the parlay. These two teams are built largely from the same mold. They are both pass-focused offenses with defenses that are on the weaker side, particularly against the run. So I'll take SJSU QB Chevan Cordeiro over Utah State Cooper Legas.
The parlay pays out +123
I'll also go with another ML Parlay with
Arkansas over Mississippi State - Arkansas is better than their 2-5 record would indicate. The Razorbacks have played LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama. None of those games were played in Fayetteville.
The Hogs defense has been a strength for this team, but it has struggled defending the explosive pass. The Hogs get a break here as Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers is out today. I’ll take the home team in an evenly matched game.
Ole Miss over Auburn - An anemic Auburn offense could only mustered 18 points against LSU which has one of the worst defenses in the country. The Rebels' defense is better than LSU's.
Missouri over South Carolina - Both teams have high flying offenses but Missouri has a better DL. I'll take the Tigers to outscore the Cocks in an exciting game
The pay off is a nice +155
I'll take the over 58.0 the Mizzou game
Arkansas over Mississippi State - Arkansas is better than their 2-5 record would indicate. The Razorbacks have played LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama. None of those games were played in Fayetteville.
The Hogs defense has been a strength for this team, but it has struggled defending the explosive pass. The Hogs get a break here as Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers is out today. I’ll take the home team in an evenly matched game.
Ole Miss over Auburn - An anemic Auburn offense could only mustered 18 points against LSU which has one of the worst defenses in the country. The Rebels' defense is better than LSU's.
Missouri over South Carolina - Both teams have high flying offenses but Missouri has a better DL. I'll take the Tigers to outscore the Cocks in an exciting game
The pay off is a nice +155
I'll take the over 58.0 the Mizzou game
Navy +10.5 @ Air Force - The Fly Boys lost their starting QB Zac Larrier. Service Academy games are always low scoring and will be even lower with the new clock rules. I'll take the double digit home under dog playing against a team playing with a back up QB playing at 10:00 body time.
Colorado State ML @ UNLV - Jay Norvell's Air Raid offense at Colorado State lives and breathes on explosive passes and is led by star wide receiver Tory Horton, who averages 2.9 yards per route run.
The Rebels have particularly struggled in coverage, ranking 115th nationally in Pass Success Rate, More importantly, UNLV ranks 130th in giving up the big play, including a bottom-20 rank in allowing pass explosives.
I’ll take the Rams at +215 on the money line
Miami (OH) ML vs Toledo - The Redskins defense will contain an overrated Toledo offense. And QB Brett Gabbert will exploit a weak Toledo secondary to get the win.
The payoff is +100
Remember the 2023 Go Jumbo trip is November 11th at the Westgate SuperBook. Woz and I are considering venturing over to the Sphere for a show
Colorado State ML @ UNLV - Jay Norvell's Air Raid offense at Colorado State lives and breathes on explosive passes and is led by star wide receiver Tory Horton, who averages 2.9 yards per route run.
The Rebels have particularly struggled in coverage, ranking 115th nationally in Pass Success Rate, More importantly, UNLV ranks 130th in giving up the big play, including a bottom-20 rank in allowing pass explosives.
I’ll take the Rams at +215 on the money line
Miami (OH) ML vs Toledo - The Redskins defense will contain an overrated Toledo offense. And QB Brett Gabbert will exploit a weak Toledo secondary to get the win.
The payoff is +100
Remember the 2023 Go Jumbo trip is November 11th at the Westgate SuperBook. Woz and I are considering venturing over to the Sphere for a show