The Sooners run defense is much improved over last year Ok we are getting a little spoiled here. This is the third week in a row that featured at least four games featuring ranked teams. Starting with:
#12 Oklahoma +5.5 vs #3 Texas (Neutral site) - The Red River Shootout..errr..Rivalry…Showdown, plenty of naming variations, but it’s all about winning the 10-gallon Golden Hat. It’s always one of the biggest games on the football college calendar with this year’s version having added importance. The winner will be the clear front-runner to both claim the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff.
If the Longhorns win, it will be hard to argue against them as the No. 1 team in the country. It would be Texas’ third top-25 victory in six games, after the team took down then-No. 3 Alabama and then-No. 24 Kansas. UT out-scored those two by 33 points, out-gained them by 493 yards,
If the Sooners win, they’d be established as a legitimate top-10 team in the country after falling below .500 in 2022, the first time that’s happened in the 21st century. The resurrection of Oklahoma football started with the defensive side of the ball. A strength of schedule discussion is needed considering the offenses OU has faced, but the Sooners defense has done its part in limiting opponents to 20 points or less.
#12 Oklahoma +5.5 vs #3 Texas (Neutral site) - The Red River Shootout..errr..Rivalry…Showdown, plenty of naming variations, but it’s all about winning the 10-gallon Golden Hat. It’s always one of the biggest games on the football college calendar with this year’s version having added importance. The winner will be the clear front-runner to both claim the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff.
If the Longhorns win, it will be hard to argue against them as the No. 1 team in the country. It would be Texas’ third top-25 victory in six games, after the team took down then-No. 3 Alabama and then-No. 24 Kansas. UT out-scored those two by 33 points, out-gained them by 493 yards,
If the Sooners win, they’d be established as a legitimate top-10 team in the country after falling below .500 in 2022, the first time that’s happened in the 21st century. The resurrection of Oklahoma football started with the defensive side of the ball. A strength of schedule discussion is needed considering the offenses OU has faced, but the Sooners defense has done its part in limiting opponents to 20 points or less.
While Brock Ewers has been fantastic in big games Texas QB Quinn Ewers has been impressive in his wins in the big games. In his two games against Alabama, Ewers earned a 90.6 passing grade. But you never know which version of Ewers you’re going to get In all other games since 2022, he posted just a 68.5 passing grade. He has been inconsistent with his downfield passing. The Texas quarterback has gone just 4-of-19 on throws over 20 yards.
Against Oklahoma, in last years 49-0 blowout, Ewers delivered an impressive 80.5 grade one of his best games of the season. However, the Sooners have a much stronger defense than they did a year ago. Oklahoma ranks second in the country in overall defensive grade and 10th in expected points added per play. The Sooners also lead the FBS in run-defense grade (92.5), so Ewers faces even more pressure to perform.
Adding to the pressure, the Texas run game has tailed off too with the loss of Bijon Robinson to the Falcons. The Longhorns are currently 90th in average distance to go on third downs at 7.3 yards per attempt.
While Ewers is getting all the publicity, it’s the other side of the ball that has the Longhorns in the position they are in. The Longhorns rank sixth nationally in preventing opposing drives from crossing the 50-yard line, pushing opponents back to an average distance of eight yards on third downs.
I’m going to pass on the spread but I will put a mini-mega on the under 60.5 backing both these defenses and figuring neither coach taking risks in a huge game.
Against Oklahoma, in last years 49-0 blowout, Ewers delivered an impressive 80.5 grade one of his best games of the season. However, the Sooners have a much stronger defense than they did a year ago. Oklahoma ranks second in the country in overall defensive grade and 10th in expected points added per play. The Sooners also lead the FBS in run-defense grade (92.5), so Ewers faces even more pressure to perform.
Adding to the pressure, the Texas run game has tailed off too with the loss of Bijon Robinson to the Falcons. The Longhorns are currently 90th in average distance to go on third downs at 7.3 yards per attempt.
While Ewers is getting all the publicity, it’s the other side of the ball that has the Longhorns in the position they are in. The Longhorns rank sixth nationally in preventing opposing drives from crossing the 50-yard line, pushing opponents back to an average distance of eight yards on third downs.
I’m going to pass on the spread but I will put a mini-mega on the under 60.5 backing both these defenses and figuring neither coach taking risks in a huge game.
Jayden Daniels can put up the points #21 Missouri +5.5 versus #23 LSU - LSU opened the season as the fifth-ranked team in the country, one with legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations. But two losses before the calendar flipped to October all but dashed those playoff dreams.
The plummeting Tigers are now on the road to take on a soaring Missouri Tigers team. Mizzou currently has its highest ranking in eight years, thanks to its first 5-0 start since 2013.
LSU is usually one of the country's better defenses. Not this year. Their defense can’t stop a nosebleed The Tigers have already allowed 31 points or more in three of their first five games. The Tigers have particularly struggled to defend to pass, ranking 120th in Passing explosiveness allowed and 130th in Passing success rate allowed.
They will be tested this week by Mizzou. Led by Brady Cook, Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr., Missouri boasts as dangerous an aerial attack as anyone.
The plummeting Tigers are now on the road to take on a soaring Missouri Tigers team. Mizzou currently has its highest ranking in eight years, thanks to its first 5-0 start since 2013.
LSU is usually one of the country's better defenses. Not this year. Their defense can’t stop a nosebleed The Tigers have already allowed 31 points or more in three of their first five games. The Tigers have particularly struggled to defend to pass, ranking 120th in Passing explosiveness allowed and 130th in Passing success rate allowed.
They will be tested this week by Mizzou. Led by Brady Cook, Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr., Missouri boasts as dangerous an aerial attack as anyone.
But so can Luther Burden III LSU's passing game is virtually impossible to defend. The offense is led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is No. 2 in FBS with 400.4 total yards per game and 16 passing touchdowns, and he ranks in the top five of the country with 342.0 passing yards per game and a 193.4 mark in passing efficiency. Daniels is completing 73.1% of his passes with only two interceptions and, in the last four games, he has 18 touchdown passes and only one interception. He is looking forward to exploiting a Missouri pass defense that is 114th in defense explosiveness.
LSU will need to rely on the arm of Daniels as Missouri's offense ranks third nationally in Rushing Success Rate, and Missouri's defense is allowing only 75 rushing yards per game.
Both offenses hold the advantage here, which should result in a ton of points.
Let’s see the higher rated team is playing at home and getting points. Sounds like that’s based on the LSU name more than anything. I’ll take the hometown Tigers on the money line for quatloos at +185.
LSU will need to rely on the arm of Daniels as Missouri's offense ranks third nationally in Rushing Success Rate, and Missouri's defense is allowing only 75 rushing yards per game.
Both offenses hold the advantage here, which should result in a ton of points.
Let’s see the higher rated team is playing at home and getting points. Sounds like that’s based on the LSU name more than anything. I’ll take the hometown Tigers on the money line for quatloos at +185.
Ray Davis exploded onto the football landscape last week #20 Kentucky +14.5 @ #1 Georgia – It’s another battle of unbeatens. The Bulldogs have dominated this series having won 13 straight dating back to 2010 and own a 62-12 all-time series record.
There were questions about these teams coming into the season but while Kentucky answered questions in Week 5 with a dominating win over Florida last week, Georgia has left plenty to be desired in a narrow road victory over Auburn.
The Bulldogs have gotten off to a slow start in every game, Much of the concern revolves around the defense. It’s is still very good, but not unreal like they were the last two seasons Georgia has taken a severe dip in front seven efficiency, which looks at tackles for loss and sacks, along with numbers in short-yardage situations on third and fourth downs. Georgia has allowed 19 rushing gains of at least 10 yards.
There were questions about these teams coming into the season but while Kentucky answered questions in Week 5 with a dominating win over Florida last week, Georgia has left plenty to be desired in a narrow road victory over Auburn.
The Bulldogs have gotten off to a slow start in every game, Much of the concern revolves around the defense. It’s is still very good, but not unreal like they were the last two seasons Georgia has taken a severe dip in front seven efficiency, which looks at tackles for loss and sacks, along with numbers in short-yardage situations on third and fourth downs. Georgia has allowed 19 rushing gains of at least 10 yards.
But Devin Leary continues to struggle The defense will face off against a Kentucky offense that features star RB Ray Davis. The fifth-year senior exploded against Florida, powering his way to 280 yards on the ground with a massive 8.3 yards after contact.
However, an inefficient passing game continues for Kentucky, as NC State transfer quarterback Devin Leary did nothing against the Gators. Leary finished 9-of-20 passing for 69 yards, an item that played a role in Kentucky converting just 2-of-9 third-down attempts. The Wildcats also failed to complete a pass longer than 15 yards, generating just 4.7 yards in passing downs.
Last year, this game was played to a 16-6 Georgia win. I doubt the game will be this low scoring it should be a tight bruising battle. The Cats will be able to keep this one close behind an offensive line known as the Big Blue Wall. It has only allowed four sacks this season and helped create nice rushing lanes for Davis to put up some big plays. And the defense can step up. Kentucky also ranks 24th in the country in tackles for loss allowed per game at 4.2.
I’m going to put a Mini Mega on Kentucky to cover.
However, an inefficient passing game continues for Kentucky, as NC State transfer quarterback Devin Leary did nothing against the Gators. Leary finished 9-of-20 passing for 69 yards, an item that played a role in Kentucky converting just 2-of-9 third-down attempts. The Wildcats also failed to complete a pass longer than 15 yards, generating just 4.7 yards in passing downs.
Last year, this game was played to a 16-6 Georgia win. I doubt the game will be this low scoring it should be a tight bruising battle. The Cats will be able to keep this one close behind an offensive line known as the Big Blue Wall. It has only allowed four sacks this season and helped create nice rushing lanes for Davis to put up some big plays. And the defense can step up. Kentucky also ranks 24th in the country in tackles for loss allowed per game at 4.2.
I’m going to put a Mini Mega on Kentucky to cover.
Audric Estime leads the nation in rushing #10 Notre Dame -6.5 @ Louisville – It’s the biggest game in Louisville football history, literally. Louisville expanded their stadium capacity to 60,800 about a decade ago and for the first time there will be a sell out.
Notre Dame's past two games have been gone down to the wire. It lost a game it probably should have won against Ohio State, then escaped Durham with a close win over Duke last weekend. After all that, the 5-1 Fighting Irish sit No. 10 in the AP Poll, though it won't get any easier in Louisville.
If there are two constants with this team, it's the running game and the defense.
On offense, Notre Dame's strong offensive line has paved the way for Audric Estime to lead the nation with 672 rushing yards. Estime is a home-run hitter with seven touchdowns, including the game-winner against Duke.
Any time a team gives up 17 points to Ohio State, it's fair to say it has a good defense. Notre Dame ranks 11th in Defensive Pass Success Rate and is allowing just 13 points per game. More importantly, it has yet to put up a bad game.
Notre Dame's past two games have been gone down to the wire. It lost a game it probably should have won against Ohio State, then escaped Durham with a close win over Duke last weekend. After all that, the 5-1 Fighting Irish sit No. 10 in the AP Poll, though it won't get any easier in Louisville.
If there are two constants with this team, it's the running game and the defense.
On offense, Notre Dame's strong offensive line has paved the way for Audric Estime to lead the nation with 672 rushing yards. Estime is a home-run hitter with seven touchdowns, including the game-winner against Duke.
Any time a team gives up 17 points to Ohio State, it's fair to say it has a good defense. Notre Dame ranks 11th in Defensive Pass Success Rate and is allowing just 13 points per game. More importantly, it has yet to put up a bad game.
Austin Gillotte is 5th in the nation in sacks A well-balanced offense has driven Louisville's success, as the Cardinals rank eighth in Rushing Success Rate and 31st in Passing Success Rate.
Brohm is known for a creative passing game, but Louisville's best offensive player has probably been Syracuse transfer RB Jawhar Jordan, who ranks 12th in the country with 510 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Jordan is a true home run threat out of the backfield and enters this game averaging 7.7 yards per carry. He also gas seven receptions for 159 yards and a receiving TD.
Louisville's defense is also well-rounded, ranking 20th in Rushing Success Rate and 28th in Passing Success Rate.
Ashton Gillotte has been a big reason why the Cardinals have defended the pass so well, as he already boasts five sacks, which is tied for fifth in the country.
Asking the Cardinals to stay unbeaten feels like a lot. They almost lost to NC State last week, and it might be pushing it to expect a sixth consecutive win. Plus, it's not like Louisville will have some massive home-field advantage because Notre Dame's fans won't have to travel far. The stage will be too big for the Cardinals. I’ll take to Domers and the consistent defense to cover for a quatloos.
More to come....
Brohm is known for a creative passing game, but Louisville's best offensive player has probably been Syracuse transfer RB Jawhar Jordan, who ranks 12th in the country with 510 rushing yards and six touchdowns. Jordan is a true home run threat out of the backfield and enters this game averaging 7.7 yards per carry. He also gas seven receptions for 159 yards and a receiving TD.
Louisville's defense is also well-rounded, ranking 20th in Rushing Success Rate and 28th in Passing Success Rate.
Ashton Gillotte has been a big reason why the Cardinals have defended the pass so well, as he already boasts five sacks, which is tied for fifth in the country.
Asking the Cardinals to stay unbeaten feels like a lot. They almost lost to NC State last week, and it might be pushing it to expect a sixth consecutive win. Plus, it's not like Louisville will have some massive home-field advantage because Notre Dame's fans won't have to travel far. The stage will be too big for the Cardinals. I’ll take to Domers and the consistent defense to cover for a quatloos.
More to come....
