It was a frustrating weekend last week. I went 3-5 for a slight loss. I lost two games on the last play of the game (Notre Dame, 10 defensive players not once but twice at the end??) and a third when CMU scored a TD with 13 seconds left.
It‘s hangover week. After being overserved with games featuring ranked teams in Week 4, Week 5 dials it back. This week we have 3 ranked matchups starting with:
Kansas +16.0 @ Texas – The last time Kansas went to Austin, the Jayhawks pulled off one of the biggest upsets in their history by winning outright as 31-point underdogs, 57-56, in OT. A fantastic game that put Lance Leopold's team on the map. Kansas is still an underdog, but the Jayhawks have enough offense to keep them in this game.
It‘s hangover week. After being overserved with games featuring ranked teams in Week 4, Week 5 dials it back. This week we have 3 ranked matchups starting with:
Kansas +16.0 @ Texas – The last time Kansas went to Austin, the Jayhawks pulled off one of the biggest upsets in their history by winning outright as 31-point underdogs, 57-56, in OT. A fantastic game that put Lance Leopold's team on the map. Kansas is still an underdog, but the Jayhawks have enough offense to keep them in this game.
Texas QB Quinn Ewers is having a great season so far with 9 TDs and no picks. Texas whacked Baylor in Waco to move to 4-0 and could be in bit of a lookahead situation with Oklahoma up next.
Kansas has a prolific offense but the defense is atrocious. They rank dead last in points allowed once team get inside their 40 yard line. Texas is going to score TDs virtually every time they get into Jayhawk territory.
But Kansas will counterpunch though. RB Devin Neal and QB Jalon Daniels are a lethal one two combination. Neal
I’m staying away from the line but I will put a quatloos on the over 61.0
Kansas has a prolific offense but the defense is atrocious. They rank dead last in points allowed once team get inside their 40 yard line. Texas is going to score TDs virtually every time they get into Jayhawk territory.
But Kansas will counterpunch though. RB Devin Neal and QB Jalon Daniels are a lethal one two combination. Neal
I’m staying away from the line but I will put a quatloos on the over 61.0
Ole Miss +2.5 vs LSU – The Tigers secondary is suspect, ranking near the bottom in the country. The Rebels offense has been dinged up but star RB Quinshon Judkins should be at full strength.
LSU lays some pretty good offense, They eighth in the nation in total offense and will put up the points on a subpar but improving Mississippi defense.
Ole Miss has been the most profitable underdog by a wide margin against top-15 league opponents, racking up a record of 28-14 ATS. Including a home record of 15-8 ATS.
I’ll put a quatloos on the Rebs at home on the money line at +120
LSU lays some pretty good offense, They eighth in the nation in total offense and will put up the points on a subpar but improving Mississippi defense.
Ole Miss has been the most profitable underdog by a wide margin against top-15 league opponents, racking up a record of 28-14 ATS. Including a home record of 15-8 ATS.
I’ll put a quatloos on the Rebs at home on the money line at +120
Notre Dame -5.5 @ Duke – One inch! If Ohio State RB Chip Trayanum’s knee was one inch lower and touched the ground a microsecond before he put the ball over the goal line, Notre Dame is ranked in the top five right now and maybe even No. 2.
I’m still bumming over that loss at the buzzer against Ohio State. But it was one of the games of the year thus far.
The Domers still have a shot at the College Football Playoff, but they need a win in Durham on Saturday night to keep those hopes alive.
Duke is off to one of the best starts in program history, sitting at 4-0 with a win over Clemson in Week 1. Duke was considered a dark horses to win the ACC, and with Clemson already having two losses in conference play, they may very well be in pole position with Florida State.
I’m still bumming over that loss at the buzzer against Ohio State. But it was one of the games of the year thus far.
The Domers still have a shot at the College Football Playoff, but they need a win in Durham on Saturday night to keep those hopes alive.
Duke is off to one of the best starts in program history, sitting at 4-0 with a win over Clemson in Week 1. Duke was considered a dark horses to win the ACC, and with Clemson already having two losses in conference play, they may very well be in pole position with Florida State.
Duke has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, which is unusual for a team that runs the ball 57% of the time. QB Riley Leonard is a very efficient passer, averaging just 7.7 yards per attempt, but that's by design. Duke likes to use a lot of short passes, with over 60% of Leonard's attempts coming within 10 yards.
As good as Leonard is, Sam Hartman is better. He has thrown for 1,236 yards with 14 TDs and no INTs on the year so far against much better defenses than Duke has faced.
Duke may be 4-0 but I’ll take ND and its great defense, in a bounce back scenario to win. I’ll put ND as part of my money line parlay along with
App State -13.5 @ UL Monroe - App State’s passing game has been potent and they’re dropping over 40 PPG on the opponents. UL Monroe has had a hard time slowing down the run and they’re giving up over 250 passing yards per game, They aren’t very good offensively either, barely scoring more than 14 points per game.
The money line parlay is priced at -147
As good as Leonard is, Sam Hartman is better. He has thrown for 1,236 yards with 14 TDs and no INTs on the year so far against much better defenses than Duke has faced.
Duke may be 4-0 but I’ll take ND and its great defense, in a bounce back scenario to win. I’ll put ND as part of my money line parlay along with
App State -13.5 @ UL Monroe - App State’s passing game has been potent and they’re dropping over 40 PPG on the opponents. UL Monroe has had a hard time slowing down the run and they’re giving up over 250 passing yards per game, They aren’t very good offensively either, barely scoring more than 14 points per game.
The money line parlay is priced at -147
My other money line parlay investments are :
Maryland ML vs Indiana
Toledo ML vs Northern Illinois
Missouri ML @ Vanderbilt
Indiana is having a train wreck of a season. They needed 4 OTs to finally beat one of the worst teams in the MAC.
Toledo is averaging 42 PPG. They are throwing for 231.8 yards and rushing for 214 yards per game. On defense they are giving up just 20.3 PPG. Northern Illinois defense is terrible, The Rockets will roll.
Missouri's offense should have no issues against Vandy's defense. If you haven't watched many Tigers games this year, WR Luther Burden III is appointment television. Despite his small size, he has completely dominated, already racking up 504 yards receiving. Vandy will have success against Mizzou's secondary but not enough. Tigers win a close one. If there is one game that could blow up the parlay, it's this one though.
Maryland ML vs Indiana
Toledo ML vs Northern Illinois
Missouri ML @ Vanderbilt
Indiana is having a train wreck of a season. They needed 4 OTs to finally beat one of the worst teams in the MAC.
Toledo is averaging 42 PPG. They are throwing for 231.8 yards and rushing for 214 yards per game. On defense they are giving up just 20.3 PPG. Northern Illinois defense is terrible, The Rockets will roll.
Missouri's offense should have no issues against Vandy's defense. If you haven't watched many Tigers games this year, WR Luther Burden III is appointment television. Despite his small size, he has completely dominated, already racking up 504 yards receiving. Vandy will have success against Mizzou's secondary but not enough. Tigers win a close one. If there is one game that could blow up the parlay, it's this one though.
Boston College ML vs Virginia
Miami (OH) ML @ Kent State
Georgia ML @ Auburn
Virginia is awful on both sides of the ball. The Cavs offense is scoring an average of only 20 PPG, (115th overall). The defense is squandering an average of 38 PPG (127th). The Cavaliers were competitive last week at home but have lost by at least 28 points in their two road bouts. Boston College nearly upset FSU and should have no problems with UVA
As bad as Virginia is, Kent State is worse. Miami (OH) is playing solid football, having won three straight after an opening season loss to the Miami Hurricanes. The RedHawks should have no problem with the Flashers.
You can't watch a FSU game without the announces saying MSU transfer Keon Coleman. there's a reason Keon left. Payton Thorne is terrible. Auburn is about ready to bench him. It may be a rivalry game but there's no way the Thorne is beating Georgia's defense.
The parlay is priced at +111
Miami (OH) ML @ Kent State
Georgia ML @ Auburn
Virginia is awful on both sides of the ball. The Cavs offense is scoring an average of only 20 PPG, (115th overall). The defense is squandering an average of 38 PPG (127th). The Cavaliers were competitive last week at home but have lost by at least 28 points in their two road bouts. Boston College nearly upset FSU and should have no problems with UVA
As bad as Virginia is, Kent State is worse. Miami (OH) is playing solid football, having won three straight after an opening season loss to the Miami Hurricanes. The RedHawks should have no problem with the Flashers.
You can't watch a FSU game without the announces saying MSU transfer Keon Coleman. there's a reason Keon left. Payton Thorne is terrible. Auburn is about ready to bench him. It may be a rivalry game but there's no way the Thorne is beating Georgia's defense.
The parlay is priced at +111
Alabama ML @ Mississippi State
Washington ML @ Arizona
Air Force ML vs San Diego State
It's going to take tie for the other MSU to move away from Mike each's Air Raid offense to a more balanced offense. Bama's defense won't give them that time. The Tide may be having QB issues but the defense is good enough to win the game.
Michael Penix is the real deal as MSU has been say for years. Arizona lost starting QB Jayden deLaura in the third quarter of last week's win over the Cardinal. A back up QB trying to keep up with Penix - ain't happening.
The Aztecs, allow 5.1 yards per carry. Not exactly the type of defense to slow down the Falcons SDSU’s defense has struggled a lot over the last few weeks, whereas Air Force’s defensive unit has been nothing short of spectacular.
The parlay is priced at -179
Washington ML @ Arizona
Air Force ML vs San Diego State
It's going to take tie for the other MSU to move away from Mike each's Air Raid offense to a more balanced offense. Bama's defense won't give them that time. The Tide may be having QB issues but the defense is good enough to win the game.
Michael Penix is the real deal as MSU has been say for years. Arizona lost starting QB Jayden deLaura in the third quarter of last week's win over the Cardinal. A back up QB trying to keep up with Penix - ain't happening.
The Aztecs, allow 5.1 yards per carry. Not exactly the type of defense to slow down the Falcons SDSU’s defense has struggled a lot over the last few weeks, whereas Air Force’s defensive unit has been nothing short of spectacular.
The parlay is priced at -179