That Spartans in their base Olé pass defense Not a bad start to to Week 1, I went 2-1. Would have been 3-0 except UCF scored a meaningless TD with 56 seconds left. Ask the Big Guy how he feels about Malzahn. That’s the way I feel. Still, a profitable start.
Nothing stands out for Friday investing. Good thing, I can just watch and enjoy Spartan football.
As far as the Green and White, let’s just say expectations are low. The gang’s group think is somewhere around 6-6 and a December bowl game. Sounds about right. We may have one of the toughest schedules out there (generally ranked in the top 5 most difficult) but it’s similar to last year and we went 5-7. Should have been 6-6 but the special teams dropped a turd against Indiana.
We lose Payne at QB but he was ineffective without KWIII. We lost our two top WRs and the pass defense s been doing the bullfighting olé ever since Mel arrived.
There’s the usual chatter during the offseason, lots of chemistry, this position room is as stacked as ever, really seeing progress from this guy and that guy. It’s all the same BS every season. Pay no attention, it’s just click bait until the season starts.
But the bottom line is if Mel does go 6-6 the hot seat gets really cranked up. The cry will be “We didn’t pay $95 million for that.” By the way, does it really matter how much we pay him. If we paid him $3 million and went 6-6 would you feel better? Is there a graph where the Y axis is amount paid and the X axis is wins and your satisfaction level is whether the HC is above or below the line? Nah - you just really care about the X axis.
6-6 on the X axis won’t cut it. He won’t get canned but the search will start behind the scenes. Progress will start around 8-4 and we beat one of the big four on the schedule Washington, Ohio State, scUM or Penn State.
Nothing stands out for Friday investing. Good thing, I can just watch and enjoy Spartan football.
As far as the Green and White, let’s just say expectations are low. The gang’s group think is somewhere around 6-6 and a December bowl game. Sounds about right. We may have one of the toughest schedules out there (generally ranked in the top 5 most difficult) but it’s similar to last year and we went 5-7. Should have been 6-6 but the special teams dropped a turd against Indiana.
We lose Payne at QB but he was ineffective without KWIII. We lost our two top WRs and the pass defense s been doing the bullfighting olé ever since Mel arrived.
There’s the usual chatter during the offseason, lots of chemistry, this position room is as stacked as ever, really seeing progress from this guy and that guy. It’s all the same BS every season. Pay no attention, it’s just click bait until the season starts.
But the bottom line is if Mel does go 6-6 the hot seat gets really cranked up. The cry will be “We didn’t pay $95 million for that.” By the way, does it really matter how much we pay him. If we paid him $3 million and went 6-6 would you feel better? Is there a graph where the Y axis is amount paid and the X axis is wins and your satisfaction level is whether the HC is above or below the line? Nah - you just really care about the X axis.
6-6 on the X axis won’t cut it. He won’t get canned but the search will start behind the scenes. Progress will start around 8-4 and we beat one of the big four on the schedule Washington, Ohio State, scUM or Penn State.
But I don't want to fade Hawaii Before we get into the rest of Friday’s action here’s an investing analytic I came across. College football differs from the NFL in that there is a week 0.
So who has the advantage in week 1, a team that played week 0 or the team that starts out in Week 1? A week 0 team has a chance to see their team in actual playing conditions, they can make adjustments from real time play. But the Week 1 team has film on the week 0 team and has all fall practice to prepare versus the week 0 team that now has just one week.
Turns out that the Week 1 team playing against a Week 0 team (that played a Div 1A team in week 0) covers at a 63% clip going back to 2005. Impressive.
Based on that stat you may want to fade USC (hosting Nevada), San Jose State (hosting Oregon State) UMass (at Auburn) La Tech (at SMU) and Hawaii (hosting Hawaii).
Even though I’m going to pass on Friday action I will get a jump on some Noon Saturday games:
So who has the advantage in week 1, a team that played week 0 or the team that starts out in Week 1? A week 0 team has a chance to see their team in actual playing conditions, they can make adjustments from real time play. But the Week 1 team has film on the week 0 team and has all fall practice to prepare versus the week 0 team that now has just one week.
Turns out that the Week 1 team playing against a Week 0 team (that played a Div 1A team in week 0) covers at a 63% clip going back to 2005. Impressive.
Based on that stat you may want to fade USC (hosting Nevada), San Jose State (hosting Oregon State) UMass (at Auburn) La Tech (at SMU) and Hawaii (hosting Hawaii).
Even though I’m going to pass on Friday action I will get a jump on some Noon Saturday games:
I will fade Brian Ferentz's offense though Iowa vs Utah State Under 43.5 – Going back to the under well. Iowa’s offense was so bad last year that OC Brian Ferentz was amended stipulating that the Hawkeyes must average 25 points per game (up from 18.6 PPG). After seven years of futility, I don’t think it will make a difference.
Utah State was hardly a juggernaut on offense either ranking 87th in PPH (23.1) and loses almost its entire OL. Iowa’s defense should have no problem shutting down the Aggies.
I’ll put a quatloos on both teams to go nowhere on offense.. Put me on for a quatloo.
Fresno State +3.5 @ Purdue – Both sides are losing a ton of offensive production. FSU gets back only four starters (but all are on the OL). Purdue loses their QB, Aiden O'Connell, (perhaps their best since Brees) and top 2 WRs. But the biggest loss was HC Jeff Brohm who went home to Louisville. He is replaced by former Illini DC Ryan Walters.
Walters brought in OC Graham Harell from West Virginia. The Neers offense struggled last year. Walters is also switching to a base 3-4 defense.
FSU has won none straight games, they have HC continuity, scheme continuity and a better defense. I’ll take the Bulldogs and the hook for a quatloos.
Utah State was hardly a juggernaut on offense either ranking 87th in PPH (23.1) and loses almost its entire OL. Iowa’s defense should have no problem shutting down the Aggies.
I’ll put a quatloos on both teams to go nowhere on offense.. Put me on for a quatloo.
Fresno State +3.5 @ Purdue – Both sides are losing a ton of offensive production. FSU gets back only four starters (but all are on the OL). Purdue loses their QB, Aiden O'Connell, (perhaps their best since Brees) and top 2 WRs. But the biggest loss was HC Jeff Brohm who went home to Louisville. He is replaced by former Illini DC Ryan Walters.
Walters brought in OC Graham Harell from West Virginia. The Neers offense struggled last year. Walters is also switching to a base 3-4 defense.
FSU has won none straight games, they have HC continuity, scheme continuity and a better defense. I’ll take the Bulldogs and the hook for a quatloos.
