
Are you ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for four teams no one else has a shot at the championship. One and done in bowls just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.
That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.
And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
This year it’s going to be a hard rule to follow. Like last year, we had a great start to the year, we faded as the Big Ten season wore on, got bounced in the first game in the Big Ten tourney, ending up with a 7 seed. Back to back seasons back to back 7 seeds. But at least Izzo set the record for consecutive tourney appearances!
As much as I doubt Sparty can make it to the Final Four, the rule is the rule. I’ll just make sure I have several backup brackets, just in case.
That’s nothing like March Madness. 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.
And the best part of March Madness is getting to pick your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball, all of a sudden you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers to boot. No longer are you limited to rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
- Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
This year it’s going to be a hard rule to follow. Like last year, we had a great start to the year, we faded as the Big Ten season wore on, got bounced in the first game in the Big Ten tourney, ending up with a 7 seed. Back to back seasons back to back 7 seeds. But at least Izzo set the record for consecutive tourney appearances!
As much as I doubt Sparty can make it to the Final Four, the rule is the rule. I’ll just make sure I have several backup brackets, just in case.

2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to the Indianapolis.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. Can it happen again? Nah, the top seeds are 147-1 since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
4. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. In 2022 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round. Same thing happened in 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. In 2019 the 2s all won their first game and the second round game, then went 2-2 in the third round. In 2018, the 2 seeds also won all their first game and then went 3-1 in the second round. No definitive trend there, what the heck, take a 2 seed to lose this round. And definitely feel free to drop one by the second round.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds in the first round. Yeah, in 2018, UVA, not only a #1 seed but the overall #1 seeded team overall went down in the first round. Can it happen again? Nah, the top seeds are 147-1 since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
4. 2 seeds are a bit harder to predict. In 2022 the number 2 seeds went 3-1 in the first round and 2-1 in the next round. Same thing happened in 2021, 3-1 first round, 2-1 second round. In 2019 the 2s all won their first game and the second round game, then went 2-2 in the third round. In 2018, the 2 seeds also won all their first game and then went 3-1 in the second round. No definitive trend there, what the heck, take a 2 seed to lose this round. And definitely feel free to drop one by the second round.

5. There’s been a lot of talk about taking 14 seeds over #3 seeds. Last year the 3 seeds went 4-0 then 2-2 in the second round. In 2021, they went 3-1 in the first round but all three then advanced to the Sweet 16. There is some history for 14 over 3 upsets. In 2016, Stephen F Austin upset West Virginia. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. Put in a 14 seed for a little spice in your bracket. Don’t be afraid to take a 14 over a 3.
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdon’t and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Wow! In 2021, Oregon State upset Tennessee. Last year the 12 seeds went 2-2 in the first game. In fact, 12 seeds win more third of the time (36%) So have a little fun - take a 12 (or two) to beat a 5!
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (I see you over the Dook)
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdon’t and Baylor). In 2018 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State against a team we all know and love). In 2019 the #12 seeds went 3-1 against the 5s. Wow! In 2021, Oregon State upset Tennessee. Last year the 12 seeds went 2-2 in the first game. In fact, 12 seeds win more third of the time (36%) So have a little fun - take a 12 (or two) to beat a 5!
While you are at it, keep in mind no #5 seed has won it all (I see you over the Dook)

7. Kansas is in the tournament again. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year until 2019 when they were a #3 and again in 2021. I used to say they sucked in the Tourney. Prior to last year they made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. In 2016, they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. Same thing happened in 2018. In 2019, they won one game and then got launched by a #5 seed. In 2021, they got bounced in the second round by 6 seed USC. But the won it all last year and surprise!, they are a #1 seed again. Go ahead and bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks well before the Final Four.
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last nine Tournaments, 22 of the 72 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. Last year it was 1 seed Baylor and 2 seed Auburn getting bounced. In 2021 it was 1 seed Illinois, and 2 seed Iowa failing to get past the first weekend. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last nine Tournaments, 22 of the 72 No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. Last year it was 1 seed Baylor and 2 seed Auburn getting bounced. In 2021 it was 1 seed Illinois, and 2 seed Iowa failing to get past the first weekend. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.

9. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the St Peters, Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 96 Final Four teams, 77 (80%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed. Last tournament it was 8 seed North Carolina.
10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.6. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 22 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). Last year the total was 13. You are going to need at least one non #4 seed in your bracket.
10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 21 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.6. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 22 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). Last year the total was 13. You are going to need at least one non #4 seed in your bracket.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams were bubble teams for a reason, they couldn’t win consistently. Bubble trams from major conferences are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was Notre Dame getting to the Round of 32.
13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 24 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be a little suspicious of Baylor and Kansas State. And Michigan Sate too. Uh oh
15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. I know, it violates rule 14 but the House Rule rules. There’s 7 of your 11.4 points right there.
b. In the South – Baylor is banged up and they violate rule 14. I’ll hold my nose and take Bama. They are just that good.
c. In the Midwest – It’s a coin flip between home town Houston and Texas. Heads, it’s Houston.
d. In the West – I can’t see Kansas going back to back so I’ll take the next best thing in UCLA.
16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 11. Almost spot on.
17. For my First Four upset I’ll take the winner of Pitt to take down Iowa State
18. For the 14 over 3 upset– I’ll go with the local upstart heroes, Kennesaw State to beat the X Men
19. or my 13 over 4 upset same bracket, Kent State beats the up and down Hoosiers. Lots of chatter about Furman over UVA too. What the heck, I'll take that one too.
20. In the same bracket I’ll take Charleston over San Diego State as my #12 over #5.
21. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? Michigan State over Marquette applies. And I’ll take Texas A&M over their hated rivals Texas too.
Put it all together and here is my 2021 winning bracket
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year except one since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was Notre Dame getting to the Round of 32.
13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 24 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be a little suspicious of Baylor and Kansas State. And Michigan Sate too. Uh oh
15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year:
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State takes the region. I know, it violates rule 14 but the House Rule rules. There’s 7 of your 11.4 points right there.
b. In the South – Baylor is banged up and they violate rule 14. I’ll hold my nose and take Bama. They are just that good.
c. In the Midwest – It’s a coin flip between home town Houston and Texas. Heads, it’s Houston.
d. In the West – I can’t see Kansas going back to back so I’ll take the next best thing in UCLA.
16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 11. Almost spot on.
17. For my First Four upset I’ll take the winner of Pitt to take down Iowa State
18. For the 14 over 3 upset– I’ll go with the local upstart heroes, Kennesaw State to beat the X Men
19. or my 13 over 4 upset same bracket, Kent State beats the up and down Hoosiers. Lots of chatter about Furman over UVA too. What the heck, I'll take that one too.
20. In the same bracket I’ll take Charleston over San Diego State as my #12 over #5.
21. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? Michigan State over Marquette applies. And I’ll take Texas A&M over their hated rivals Texas too.
Put it all together and here is my 2021 winning bracket
Remember - the 2023 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 11th at the Westgate SUperBook