Sometimes you just have to take the complexity out of things. Why look at offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses, how teams do on 3rd down, turnover margins, all that stuff. Over the last two weeks there is one very simple metric to look at. Whether you played at home.
Yup, that’s right. Over the last two weeks the home team in the Power 5 conference games went 36-8 straight up.
And that includes some nice upset wins like State over Wisconsin (+210 on the money line), Tennessee over Alabama (+260) and Colorado over Cal (+420). In fact, if you bet a quatloo on the money line on every Power 5 game, you would have bet 44 quatloos and end up plus 19.72 quatloos (44.8% profit)
Now granted, the home teams were favorites, even heavy favorites over the last two week. Digging in a little further home team favorites went 28-3 over the last two weeks, returning and even 8.00 quatloos. Home Dogs went 8-5 but returned a very profitable 11.72 (90%).
Arizona State almost beat the trend with this fantastic catch
Yup, that’s right. Over the last two weeks the home team in the Power 5 conference games went 36-8 straight up.
And that includes some nice upset wins like State over Wisconsin (+210 on the money line), Tennessee over Alabama (+260) and Colorado over Cal (+420). In fact, if you bet a quatloo on the money line on every Power 5 game, you would have bet 44 quatloos and end up plus 19.72 quatloos (44.8% profit)
Now granted, the home teams were favorites, even heavy favorites over the last two week. Digging in a little further home team favorites went 28-3 over the last two weeks, returning and even 8.00 quatloos. Home Dogs went 8-5 but returned a very profitable 11.72 (90%).
Arizona State almost beat the trend with this fantastic catch
So close. Great ending. Can't wait for football after dark this weekend.
And I might have to do a home team dog money line parlay this week.
The Coaching Carousel cranked up again this week as UNC Charlotte fired their head coach Will Healy. Healy was the talk of the Queen City after he took the Niners to their first and only bowl game in 2019. But the team began to spin downward after that season mainly as a result of the defense.
Last year’s Charlotte defense ranked 114th in scoring, so Healy overhauled the defensive staff in an attempt to fix things. The results – the Niners are 120th in passing defense, 129th in rushing defense, 131st (dead last) scoring defense and, as you can imagine 131st overall.
All glory to the Hypnotoad!
Down 28-10 TCU came roaring back to beat Kansas State 38-38. The win puts them in a rather exclusive club. They became only the third team in college football history to win four games against teams ranked in the AP poll in the same calendar month.
The only other teams to do it: Stanford in November 2012 and Iowa in October 1960.
The 1960 Hawkeyes actually played their first eight games against top-20 teams, going 7-1 in that stretch
Down 28-10 TCU came roaring back to beat Kansas State 38-38. The win puts them in a rather exclusive club. They became only the third team in college football history to win four games against teams ranked in the AP poll in the same calendar month.
The only other teams to do it: Stanford in November 2012 and Iowa in October 1960.
The 1960 Hawkeyes actually played their first eight games against top-20 teams, going 7-1 in that stretch
The 1960 Hawkeyes actually played their first eight games against top-20 teams, going 7-1 in that stretch
This year's Iowa team? The offense is epically bad, screwing its hardworking defense against Ohio State. Ohio State took a 33-10 lead over Iowa in the third quarter despite only one scoring drive over 24 yards.
With six turnovers in the game, it took just 360 yards for the Buckeyes score 54 points since the Iowa offense was so historically inept that it effectively made Ohio State drives a chip-in.
The Hawkeye offense went 1-13 on third downs and with this scoop and score the Iowa defense actually outscored the offense (again)
This year's Iowa team? The offense is epically bad, screwing its hardworking defense against Ohio State. Ohio State took a 33-10 lead over Iowa in the third quarter despite only one scoring drive over 24 yards.
With six turnovers in the game, it took just 360 yards for the Buckeyes score 54 points since the Iowa offense was so historically inept that it effectively made Ohio State drives a chip-in.
The Hawkeye offense went 1-13 on third downs and with this scoop and score the Iowa defense actually outscored the offense (again)
We get it, Kirk, offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz is your son and you love him but its time for a Fredo kiss on the forehead.
Iowa may have had six turnovers by Miami (FL) did them one better, actually two, by turning it over eight times in a 45-21 loss to Duke.
When Cristobal landed 11 highly touted transfers to join heralded quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, the hype train was primed and ready. The U was back!
Then the season began….
Dropping the game against Texas A&M hurt, but losing to Middle Tennessee and now Duke is inexplicable. Every week, Cristobal's program seemingly springs a new leak and performs somehow worse than the week before. A bowl game seems like a pipe dream at this point.
Watch out Hugh Freeze haters but Liberty is 7-1. When quarterback Malik Willis left, we all thought the Flames and Freeze were done yet, they've kept winning, including a 41-14 stomping of BYU on Saturday
Liberty's lone loss came on a missed 2-point try against 6-1 Wake Forest. And Liberty has done it with three different starting QBs.
When Clemson trailed Syracuse 21-10 at the half on Saturday, the Tigers opened at -9.5 for second half wagers. Clemson easily covered that number, outscoring the Orange 17-0 in the second half. That makes Dabo 11-2 against the second-half spread when trailing at halftime.
And how about this thrilling ending between North Texas and UT San Antonio
Liberty's lone loss came on a missed 2-point try against 6-1 Wake Forest. And Liberty has done it with three different starting QBs.
When Clemson trailed Syracuse 21-10 at the half on Saturday, the Tigers opened at -9.5 for second half wagers. Clemson easily covered that number, outscoring the Orange 17-0 in the second half. That makes Dabo 11-2 against the second-half spread when trailing at halftime.
And how about this thrilling ending between North Texas and UT San Antonio
Oregon is playing like the best one-loss team in the country, but its 49-3 beat down by Georgia will likely keep them out of the CFP.
Since 1950,only four teams have lost a game by 40-plus points and finished in the AP top 10 - 2016 Florida State, 2016 USC, 2007 Virginia Tech and of course last years Spartans.
Perhaps the most impressive stat of the season so far: Oregon has allowed one sack in seven games. For context last year Army led the nation’s in fewest sacks with 7 in 13 games but Army averaged 8 passes a game. Oregon averages 33. Impressive job by new OL coach Adrian Klemm.
Most meaningless stat - Purdue has never won a game right after a Taylor Swift album release.
2006: Lost to Penn St.
2008: Lost to Iowa
2010: Lost to Illinois
2012: Lost to Minnesota
2014: Lost to Nebraska
2017: Lost to Northwestern
2019: Lost to Nevada
2022: Lost to Wisconsin
Is Jimbo Fisher really worth all that money? With the loss this week to South Carolina dropping the Aggies to 3-4 he will undoubtedly finish the season unranked. That would make it the second year in a row that a preseason No. 6 A&M team will end up unranked.
It would also mark the third time in six years that a Jimbo coached team went from the preseason top six to unranked. His last Florida State squad did so in 2017.
Bruce sent this one along. This guy got a penalty when he should have gotten a standing O
2006: Lost to Penn St.
2008: Lost to Iowa
2010: Lost to Illinois
2012: Lost to Minnesota
2014: Lost to Nebraska
2017: Lost to Northwestern
2019: Lost to Nevada
2022: Lost to Wisconsin
Is Jimbo Fisher really worth all that money? With the loss this week to South Carolina dropping the Aggies to 3-4 he will undoubtedly finish the season unranked. That would make it the second year in a row that a preseason No. 6 A&M team will end up unranked.
It would also mark the third time in six years that a Jimbo coached team went from the preseason top six to unranked. His last Florida State squad did so in 2017.
Bruce sent this one along. This guy got a penalty when he should have gotten a standing O
And finally, the Indiana Hoosiers are the first FBS team to lose 700 games. Pete is intentionally not mentioning this to Mrs Pete. Smart man.
It's here this weekend - 2022 GO JUMBO at the Westgate SuperBook. See you there!