Penn State already has more rushing TDs than all of last year Now the playoff run really begins. There are six matchups this week featuring ranked teams. Three with both teams undefeated. And there are plenty of other games that I have my investing, one good eye on.
#10 Penn State +7.0 @ #5 Michigan – Forget the stats and the hype, scUM played a whole lot of nothing for the first three weeks. Then, when they entered conference play, the scUM sphincters got a whole lot tighter. A seven point win over Maryland, a three point win over Iowa, and they struggled against Indiana. The game was tied at half.
Now they play the first actually good team and are giving seven?
Penn State’s run defense (5th) will be able to contain the overhyped Blake Corum. When Booger Man finally decides to go to the air, he'll face a secondary that leads the nation, by far, in pass break ups. PSU knocks down 11.2 passes per game, well ahead of the next best team Pitt with 7.3
The Nits have a pair of talented freshman RBs in Nick Singleton and Kayton Allen. The Nittany Lions have already surpassed their rushing touchdown total from 2021 (12).
Both coaches are bull headed and will try to establish the run. I’ll put a quatloo on the 1st half under of 24.5.
Investors should note:
#10 Penn State +7.0 @ #5 Michigan – Forget the stats and the hype, scUM played a whole lot of nothing for the first three weeks. Then, when they entered conference play, the scUM sphincters got a whole lot tighter. A seven point win over Maryland, a three point win over Iowa, and they struggled against Indiana. The game was tied at half.
Now they play the first actually good team and are giving seven?
Penn State’s run defense (5th) will be able to contain the overhyped Blake Corum. When Booger Man finally decides to go to the air, he'll face a secondary that leads the nation, by far, in pass break ups. PSU knocks down 11.2 passes per game, well ahead of the next best team Pitt with 7.3
The Nits have a pair of talented freshman RBs in Nick Singleton and Kayton Allen. The Nittany Lions have already surpassed their rushing touchdown total from 2021 (12).
Both coaches are bull headed and will try to establish the run. I’ll put a quatloo on the 1st half under of 24.5.
Investors should note:
- Road team has won and covered last three meetings.
- James Franklin is 7-2 vs. spread last nine as true visitor.
- But Penn State is just 2-6 ATS in the past eight tries against Michigan
Tennessee fans get their corn from a jar #6 Tennessee +7.5 @ #3 Alabama –
It’s the best game of the week if not the season. Game day will be in town and 100,000+ fans will be belting out Good ol Rocky Top.
Everyone knows the chorus to Good ol Rocky Top but the lyrics are a hoot
Corn won't grow at all on Rocky Top
Dirt's too rocky by far
That's why all the folks on Rocky Top
Get their corn from a jar
Ain’t that the truth.
And they will be hitting the jar all morning with a 3:30 start.
Tennessee fans have been waiting a long time for this season. Is this finally the year the break out and are a player in the SEC and perhaps a playoff team? .
It’s the best game of the week if not the season. Game day will be in town and 100,000+ fans will be belting out Good ol Rocky Top.
Everyone knows the chorus to Good ol Rocky Top but the lyrics are a hoot
Corn won't grow at all on Rocky Top
Dirt's too rocky by far
That's why all the folks on Rocky Top
Get their corn from a jar
Ain’t that the truth.
And they will be hitting the jar all morning with a 3:30 start.
Tennessee fans have been waiting a long time for this season. Is this finally the year the break out and are a player in the SEC and perhaps a playoff team? .
Bama's secondary is a little suspect this year. The Vols have never beaten a Nick Saban-coached Alabama team. This may their best chance
The offense is fantastic. It leads the nation yards per game and second only to Ohio State in points per game.
Bama is Bama. Winning games even if they aren’t playing their best. A better play call by Jimbo last week and the Tide would have a loss on their record.
Nick is being coy about Bryce Young, saying it’s a game time decision, which means he will start. But I’ll take a healthy Hendon Hooker over a nicked up Young. Hooker should find success against a suspect Bama secondary.
Put me down for a quatloo on Tennessee to cover and another to win outright at +255.
Investors should note:
The offense is fantastic. It leads the nation yards per game and second only to Ohio State in points per game.
Bama is Bama. Winning games even if they aren’t playing their best. A better play call by Jimbo last week and the Tide would have a loss on their record.
Nick is being coy about Bryce Young, saying it’s a game time decision, which means he will start. But I’ll take a healthy Hendon Hooker over a nicked up Young. Hooker should find success against a suspect Bama secondary.
Put me down for a quatloo on Tennessee to cover and another to win outright at +255.
Investors should note:
- Saban has covered five of last six in series.
- But the Tide is only 4-5 ATS on the road
- Vols are 1-4 last five as dog ,
- Vols also over 13-5 since last season.
TCU's Max Duggan is 2nd in passer rating in the nation. #8 Oklahoma State +4.0 @ TCU – There’s no rest for TCU. Last week they had to go on the road to face this years Cinderella team Kansas with the game Day gang in town. It took a last minute TD by TCU to down the upstart Jayhawks 38-31.
Now they have to face undefeated Oklahoma State. While the Big 12 story lines have been about the rise of Kansas, Texas finding its groove, and the fall of Oklahoma, Okie State has quietly gone 5-0. They beat defending champ Baylor, survived a shootout with Texas Tech and all five wins have been by double digits.
The Cowboy defense is somehow getting it down. They lead the league in tackles for loss yet let up the most yards through the air (6th worst overall).
It’s the top two scoring teams in the always high scoring Big 12. There’s going to be plenty of scoring and a close back and forth game. If Tennessee versus Bama is the biggest game of the week, this should be the most exciting.
I’ll take the Pokes and the points but no quatloos. Last year, the fighting Gundy’s ran up the score. TCU will be looking to do the same.
Investors should note that both teams are profitable:
Now they have to face undefeated Oklahoma State. While the Big 12 story lines have been about the rise of Kansas, Texas finding its groove, and the fall of Oklahoma, Okie State has quietly gone 5-0. They beat defending champ Baylor, survived a shootout with Texas Tech and all five wins have been by double digits.
The Cowboy defense is somehow getting it down. They lead the league in tackles for loss yet let up the most yards through the air (6th worst overall).
It’s the top two scoring teams in the always high scoring Big 12. There’s going to be plenty of scoring and a close back and forth game. If Tennessee versus Bama is the biggest game of the week, this should be the most exciting.
I’ll take the Pokes and the points but no quatloos. Last year, the fighting Gundy’s ran up the score. TCU will be looking to do the same.
Investors should note that both teams are profitable:
- Home team has won and covered last four meetings.
- Frogs are 4-0-1 ATS in 2022.
- Pokes are on a 15-5 ATS run.
The best defense in the ACC - Your Syracuse Orange #18 Syracuse -3.5 vs #15 NC State – We will finally see of the Orange a contenders or pretenders in the ACC. Syracuse has feasted on a Charmin soft schedule so far. Now they start a stretch of games that features #15 NC State, #4 Clemson, Notre Dame, reigning ACC champs Pitt, Florida State and #14 Wake Forest.
Statistically these teams are evenly matched. Syracuse is No. 1 or 2 in the conference in all four major defensive categories and is top 10 nationally in scoring (14.0 ppg, tied for ninth) and total (271.6 ypg, 10th) defense.
NC State is right behind the Cuse in both scoring and total defense in the ACC and has a conference-best 11 takeaways, including nine interceptions (tied for seventh in FBS).Syracuse may rank better but NC State has played a tougher schedule.
The Pack is a bit beat up after playing Clemson and Florida State back to back. The big concern is the health of start QB Devin Leary how banged up his shoulder last week against the Noles. He is uncertain. RB Demi Sumo-Karngbaye (5.8 YPC, 3 TDs) should be available after getting dinged against Florida State too.
Syracuse is healthy and had last week off. Two weeks, if you include a 59-0 win over a bad FCS team Wagner the week before.
I’ll take NC State and the points in this one but no quatloos. I refuse to bet on NC State games. They are way too flaky.
Investors should note:
Statistically these teams are evenly matched. Syracuse is No. 1 or 2 in the conference in all four major defensive categories and is top 10 nationally in scoring (14.0 ppg, tied for ninth) and total (271.6 ypg, 10th) defense.
NC State is right behind the Cuse in both scoring and total defense in the ACC and has a conference-best 11 takeaways, including nine interceptions (tied for seventh in FBS).Syracuse may rank better but NC State has played a tougher schedule.
The Pack is a bit beat up after playing Clemson and Florida State back to back. The big concern is the health of start QB Devin Leary how banged up his shoulder last week against the Noles. He is uncertain. RB Demi Sumo-Karngbaye (5.8 YPC, 3 TDs) should be available after getting dinged against Florida State too.
Syracuse is healthy and had last week off. Two weeks, if you include a 59-0 win over a bad FCS team Wagner the week before.
I’ll take NC State and the points in this one but no quatloos. I refuse to bet on NC State games. They are way too flaky.
Investors should note:
- The home team has covered last three in series.
- Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in 2022 after going 8-4 ATS last year.
- NC State has failed to cover the last three as visitor
Will Levis is back for Kentucky after missing the last two weeks #16 Mississippi State -4.0 @ #22 Kentucky – The Wildcats are hanging on to a top 25 ranking despite losing two in a row. Those losses were without star QB Will Levis.
It looks Levis will play, resulting in the line moving from Kentucky +7 to +4 during the week. But while Kentucky gets Davis back, they lose his two favorite WRs and the OL is banged up too.
For Mississippi State, Mike Leach’s teams were known for the Air Raid offense putting up tons of yards through the air, little running game and even less defense.
For the most part that is what is happening QB Will Rogers leads the country in passing yards (2,110) has 22 TDs with only 3 picks. The run game is non existent (115th right behind our MSU at 114th..sigh). But the defense is actually adequate, slightly above average.
I’ll take the Bulldogs to cover but no quatloos. Just too many lingering injury issues on the Kentucky side for my liking but they are at home with a better defense.
I will take the other MSU on the ML as part of my Potpourri Parlay though.
Investors should note
It looks Levis will play, resulting in the line moving from Kentucky +7 to +4 during the week. But while Kentucky gets Davis back, they lose his two favorite WRs and the OL is banged up too.
For Mississippi State, Mike Leach’s teams were known for the Air Raid offense putting up tons of yards through the air, little running game and even less defense.
For the most part that is what is happening QB Will Rogers leads the country in passing yards (2,110) has 22 TDs with only 3 picks. The run game is non existent (115th right behind our MSU at 114th..sigh). But the defense is actually adequate, slightly above average.
I’ll take the Bulldogs to cover but no quatloos. Just too many lingering injury issues on the Kentucky side for my liking but they are at home with a better defense.
I will take the other MSU on the ML as part of my Potpourri Parlay though.
Investors should note
- Home team (Kentucky) has won and covered last seven meetings. Average margin is 14.5 points.
- Leach has covered six of last seven as SEC visitor, however.
- Last five meetings wet under as well.
- Stoops 12-6 vs. spread since 2021,
- Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in October and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record.
USC leads the nation in turnover margin #7 USC +3.5 @ #20 Utah – The Trojans are a juggernaut. They are 6-0 with five of the six wins by double digits, they lead the nation in turnover margin (2.33/game - .73/game better than number 2 UL Lafayette) and are #1 in sacks.
Utah QB Cameron Rising turned over it twice in a loss to UCLA last week. If that continues it will be a long day for Utah.
To beat Utah, you have to be able to run the ball. Going back to 2017, Utah is 0-10 when allowing 200 yards rushing. They are 0-2 this year, in both games they allowed 200 yards rushing, and both were on the road. USC has a couple stud RBs. Travis Dye has posted a dozen explosive runs, while Austin Jones averages more than four yards after contact. And, of course, QB Caleb Williams is a threat to take it to the house every time he lines up too.
Just watch this run from last year.
Utah QB Cameron Rising turned over it twice in a loss to UCLA last week. If that continues it will be a long day for Utah.
To beat Utah, you have to be able to run the ball. Going back to 2017, Utah is 0-10 when allowing 200 yards rushing. They are 0-2 this year, in both games they allowed 200 yards rushing, and both were on the road. USC has a couple stud RBs. Travis Dye has posted a dozen explosive runs, while Austin Jones averages more than four yards after contact. And, of course, QB Caleb Williams is a threat to take it to the house every time he lines up too.
Just watch this run from last year.
Utah is a different beast at home The Utes are a totally different animal when playing at home, at elevation. They have won 11 straight in Salt Lake City.
Kyle Wittingham has a beef with Lincoln Riley and his grabbing players through the portal. Utah lost a linebacker to the Condoms and indirectly called out USC in a rant about the portal during the offseason. Expect him to bring the heat this week.
I took a window seat on the USC bandwagon early in the season. I’m not jumping off yet. I’ll put a quatloo on the money line at +140 on USC.
Investors should note:
Kyle Wittingham has a beef with Lincoln Riley and his grabbing players through the portal. Utah lost a linebacker to the Condoms and indirectly called out USC in a rant about the portal during the offseason. Expect him to bring the heat this week.
I took a window seat on the USC bandwagon early in the season. I’m not jumping off yet. I’ll put a quatloo on the money line at +140 on USC.
Investors should note:
- Trojans only 8-9 ATS away from the Coliseum since 2019.
- USC is 1-4 ATS in Salt Lake City.
- Utes 5-1 ATS in Salt Lake City
- Also on 11-4 ATS run since early 2021.
Kansas backup QB Jason Bean nearly upset Oklahoma last year. He won't be intimidated Some other games I will be investing in this weekend
Clemson -4.0 @ Florida State - Clemson is finally playing offense. FSU is a good team with it's only two losses to ranked ACC teams. Clemson is a ranked ACC team.
Kansas +9.5 @ Oklahoma - One last minute loss and all of a sudden Kansas can't play football. Oklahoma's defense is getting destroyed giving up 104 points over the last two weeks.
Yeah, Kansas will be missing star QB Jalon Daniels but backup Jason Bean nearly pulled off the comeback last week against TCU and nearly upset a much better Oklahoma last year.
I'll put a quatloo on Kansas to cover an another for them to win outright at +290
Clemson -4.0 @ Florida State - Clemson is finally playing offense. FSU is a good team with it's only two losses to ranked ACC teams. Clemson is a ranked ACC team.
Kansas +9.5 @ Oklahoma - One last minute loss and all of a sudden Kansas can't play football. Oklahoma's defense is getting destroyed giving up 104 points over the last two weeks.
Yeah, Kansas will be missing star QB Jalon Daniels but backup Jason Bean nearly pulled off the comeback last week against TCU and nearly upset a much better Oklahoma last year.
I'll put a quatloo on Kansas to cover an another for them to win outright at +290
Fresno State even lost to UConn San Jose State -7.5 @ Fresno State - Fresno State has been a train wreck ever since they lost QB Jake Haener. They haven't beaten a Dic 1A team this year, even losing to UConn.
The other Spartans are playing great defense (16th) and have yet to throw a pick.
FSU is 0-5 ATS. SJSU is 4-1 ATS and has covered by at least 14 points four straight times.
For my Potpourri Parlay - a mix of covers, Money Line and Over/Under - just some left over picks, I'll go with (at +498)
Washington State +3.0 @ Oregon State
Mississippi State ML over Kentucky
East Carolina @ Memphis over 61.0
I also combined these two Money Lines at +1022
Kansas over Oklahoma
Tennessee over Alabama
In the NFL I'll go with a money line parlay at +394
Jacksonville over Indianapolis
Miami over Minnesota
And a quatloo on Buffalo -2.5 over Kansas City
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2022 Week 7 Bettors Guide
The other Spartans are playing great defense (16th) and have yet to throw a pick.
FSU is 0-5 ATS. SJSU is 4-1 ATS and has covered by at least 14 points four straight times.
For my Potpourri Parlay - a mix of covers, Money Line and Over/Under - just some left over picks, I'll go with (at +498)
Washington State +3.0 @ Oregon State
Mississippi State ML over Kentucky
East Carolina @ Memphis over 61.0
I also combined these two Money Lines at +1022
Kansas over Oklahoma
Tennessee over Alabama
In the NFL I'll go with a money line parlay at +394
Jacksonville over Indianapolis
Miami over Minnesota
And a quatloo on Buffalo -2.5 over Kansas City
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2022 Week 7 Bettors Guide
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Remember - the 2022 GO JUMBO trip is two weeks away. Oct 29th at the Westgate SuperBook
