I flew home early as Hurricane Ian was barreling toward East Beach Command. Good thing I did as I caught the last flight into town. And then pffft. Fortunately, It was more like a cool blustery day than a tropical storm here.
But we are still getting some effects as there have been periodic power and internet outages. Hopefully those will stop, and Mrs. Doofus will give me some time between clean up duties, as there are plenty of good games on tap this weekend starting with:
#7 Kentucky +7.0 @ #14 Ole Miss – This will be the first time since the Maniac was born in 1958 that both Kentucky and Ole Miss will be ranked when they play.
Perhaps both teams were in look ahead mode. Ole Miss was down 14-7 to Tulsa, built a 35-17 half time lead, then were held scoreless in the second half as the Golden Showers rally fell short 35-27.
Kentucky was tied 14-14 with 26.5 underdog Northern Illinois, then the Wildcats scored 17 straight points. It took a final minute first down for the Wildcats to hold off NIU 31-23.
But we are still getting some effects as there have been periodic power and internet outages. Hopefully those will stop, and Mrs. Doofus will give me some time between clean up duties, as there are plenty of good games on tap this weekend starting with:
#7 Kentucky +7.0 @ #14 Ole Miss – This will be the first time since the Maniac was born in 1958 that both Kentucky and Ole Miss will be ranked when they play.
Perhaps both teams were in look ahead mode. Ole Miss was down 14-7 to Tulsa, built a 35-17 half time lead, then were held scoreless in the second half as the Golden Showers rally fell short 35-27.
Kentucky was tied 14-14 with 26.5 underdog Northern Illinois, then the Wildcats scored 17 straight points. It took a final minute first down for the Wildcats to hold off NIU 31-23.
The good news for Kentucky is they get back last years SEC leading rusher Chris Rodriguez Jr., who was suspended for the first four games of the season after having getting nailed for a DUI back in July. Without Rodriquez, Kentucky has the 123rd ranked run game.
QB Will Levis has been carrying load and having a great season. He’s gone from a backup at Penn State to one of the top QBs heading into the draft. He could use some help though. He’s been sacked 16 times already.
Ole Miss has had no trouble running the ball averaging 281 YPG and ranking 4th overall. But it has been all against pitiful competition. Kentucky’s 17th ranked defense is the best they have faced so far.
I’m going with Kentucky to cover the TD spread. This should be a tight game decided by a FG. Put me down for a quatloo. Might even sprinkle in a money line bet at +215 on UK too.
Investors should note that Kentucky is 15-5-2 ATS against AP-ranked teams since the start of the 2015 season while Ole Miss is 0-3 ATS as a favorite against AP Top 10 teams.
QB Will Levis has been carrying load and having a great season. He’s gone from a backup at Penn State to one of the top QBs heading into the draft. He could use some help though. He’s been sacked 16 times already.
Ole Miss has had no trouble running the ball averaging 281 YPG and ranking 4th overall. But it has been all against pitiful competition. Kentucky’s 17th ranked defense is the best they have faced so far.
I’m going with Kentucky to cover the TD spread. This should be a tight game decided by a FG. Put me down for a quatloo. Might even sprinkle in a money line bet at +215 on UK too.
Investors should note that Kentucky is 15-5-2 ATS against AP-ranked teams since the start of the 2015 season while Ole Miss is 0-3 ATS as a favorite against AP Top 10 teams.
#20 Arkansas +17.5 vs #2 Alabama - Toink! Hopefully the Razorbacks rebound after that gut wrenching loss to Texas A&M. Yeah, they will. Nothing like Bama coming into your backyard to get the team and fans fired up.
The real question is will Bama show up. The offense doesn’t seem to want to travel. They’ve posted less than 25 points in their last two road games (Texas and Auburn)
And, although the Tide is 4-1 in their last five road trip, three of those wins came by two points or less.
And now you want to lay 17.5 points? Not me, I’ll take the Hogs and the points for a Mega Bet. Last years game was decided by a TD. This one should be within that range too.
Investors should note that both teams are breakeven ATS. While Alabama has never lost outright to Arkansas under Nick Saban, he’s just 8-6-1 ATS. Against Top 20 SEC teams he is 18-6 SU but only 12-12 ATS.
Arkansas 0-17 SU against Top 5 teams since 2007 but is 8-9 ATS.
The real question is will Bama show up. The offense doesn’t seem to want to travel. They’ve posted less than 25 points in their last two road games (Texas and Auburn)
And, although the Tide is 4-1 in their last five road trip, three of those wins came by two points or less.
And now you want to lay 17.5 points? Not me, I’ll take the Hogs and the points for a Mega Bet. Last years game was decided by a TD. This one should be within that range too.
Investors should note that both teams are breakeven ATS. While Alabama has never lost outright to Arkansas under Nick Saban, he’s just 8-6-1 ATS. Against Top 20 SEC teams he is 18-6 SU but only 12-12 ATS.
Arkansas 0-17 SU against Top 5 teams since 2007 but is 8-9 ATS.
#9 Oklahoma State +2.5 @ #19 Baylor - Oklahoma State was this close to making the CFP game. Baylor put the dagger in the Cowboys chances with a thrilling 21-16 win. Oklahoma State had first-and-goal at the Baylor 2-yard line with 1:19 remaining but the Bears stopped all four plays, including the final one just short of the goal-line. One of the best games of the year last year.
The 2021 edition of the Cowboys was a defense-first team that gave up just 18 PPG. This year’s team is offense first scoring 52 PPG.
The defense must be feeling the effects of DC Jim Knowles leaving for Ohio State. Central Michigan lit up the Pokes in the opener, rolling up 546 yards of total offense. Baylor is licking their chops in reviewing that film.
But the Baylor offense is a bit one dimensional relying a little too much on the run. If OSU gets their offense off to a quick start, Baylor will have trouble keeping up.
Defensively, the Bears have one of the country's top run defenses, though it might not be worth much in this one. The Cowboys have an elite passing attack and don't rely on the run
Oklahoma State is coming off a bye and is looking for revenge. I’ll take the Pokes for a quatloo on the money line at +110
Investors should note that both teams have been very rewarding. Baylor is 8-1 ATS last nine home games while Okie State is 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
The 2021 edition of the Cowboys was a defense-first team that gave up just 18 PPG. This year’s team is offense first scoring 52 PPG.
The defense must be feeling the effects of DC Jim Knowles leaving for Ohio State. Central Michigan lit up the Pokes in the opener, rolling up 546 yards of total offense. Baylor is licking their chops in reviewing that film.
But the Baylor offense is a bit one dimensional relying a little too much on the run. If OSU gets their offense off to a quick start, Baylor will have trouble keeping up.
Defensively, the Bears have one of the country's top run defenses, though it might not be worth much in this one. The Cowboys have an elite passing attack and don't rely on the run
Oklahoma State is coming off a bye and is looking for revenge. I’ll take the Pokes for a quatloo on the money line at +110
Investors should note that both teams have been very rewarding. Baylor is 8-1 ATS last nine home games while Okie State is 12-2-1 ATS in their last 15 games and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
#22 Wake Forest +7.0 @ #23 Florida State - Speaking of Hurricane Ian, it was supposed to pummel Tallahassee but veered south out Tampa, across Florida and out into the ocean. It’s going to be great weather for football. The conditions are perfect for a shootout. And shootouts play right into Wake’s wheelhouse.
The Demon Deacons average 43 points per game and have scored at least 37 in every contest. The passing attack is lethal and just got done racking up the yards and points on a stout Clemson defense. The run game is lacking which kept the Deacons from controlling the clock late and allowing Clemson to win. The defense leaves a lot to be desired too.
Florida State is much more balanced on offense ranking 13th in rushing and 40th in passing and can beat you whichever way the need. Look for the Noles to bleed the clock and keep WtF offense off the field.
The Demon Deacons handed FSU its worst loss of the season in 2021, rolling past the Seminoles in Winston-Salem, 35-14. Six turnovers crippled the Noles. That won’t happen again this year. FSU is looking for revenge at home but the spread is a bit much for me.
I’ll take WtF to cover but no quatloos.
Investors should note that both teams are rewarding their backers. Wake is 4-1 ATS last five games while FSU is 6-1 ATS last seven games.
The Demon Deacons average 43 points per game and have scored at least 37 in every contest. The passing attack is lethal and just got done racking up the yards and points on a stout Clemson defense. The run game is lacking which kept the Deacons from controlling the clock late and allowing Clemson to win. The defense leaves a lot to be desired too.
Florida State is much more balanced on offense ranking 13th in rushing and 40th in passing and can beat you whichever way the need. Look for the Noles to bleed the clock and keep WtF offense off the field.
The Demon Deacons handed FSU its worst loss of the season in 2021, rolling past the Seminoles in Winston-Salem, 35-14. Six turnovers crippled the Noles. That won’t happen again this year. FSU is looking for revenge at home but the spread is a bit much for me.
I’ll take WtF to cover but no quatloos.
Investors should note that both teams are rewarding their backers. Wake is 4-1 ATS last five games while FSU is 6-1 ATS last seven games.
#10 NC State @ #5 Clemson - – The media’s takeaway from last weeks win over Wake is that DJ Uiagalelei is back baby! 371 yards passing, 5 TDs. The Tiger offense is back. Yeah, but it was in OT against Wake’s defense that hasn’t figured out the season has started yet.
How about the other side of the coin. The defense just got torched. The defense just got torched by Wake for 447 yards and 6 TDs
NC State is actually playing a better defense letting up less than 12 PPG. It came up with four takeaways in the 27-14 win over Texas Tech, and the secondary has seven picks on the year.
This will be the test to see if Pack QB Devin Leary is for real. He has put up gaudy stats against bottom feeders UConn and Charelston Southern. He struggled in his only road test against east Carolina. He faces a DL full of NFL talent but the Clemson secondary is getting abused. If he pulls this off he will make a big leap up in NFL draft war rooms.
It’s a revenge game for Clemson at home with game Day in town. NC State hasn’t beaten Clemson on the road since Philip Rivers was under center. I’ll take Clemson but no quatloos. I refuse to bet NC State games.
Investors should note that neither team is generating profits lately. NC State is 5-14 ATS last 19 road games though it is 8-3 ATS against Clemson.. Meanwhile, Clemson is 2-8 ATS last 10 home games.
How about the other side of the coin. The defense just got torched. The defense just got torched by Wake for 447 yards and 6 TDs
NC State is actually playing a better defense letting up less than 12 PPG. It came up with four takeaways in the 27-14 win over Texas Tech, and the secondary has seven picks on the year.
This will be the test to see if Pack QB Devin Leary is for real. He has put up gaudy stats against bottom feeders UConn and Charelston Southern. He struggled in his only road test against east Carolina. He faces a DL full of NFL talent but the Clemson secondary is getting abused. If he pulls this off he will make a big leap up in NFL draft war rooms.
It’s a revenge game for Clemson at home with game Day in town. NC State hasn’t beaten Clemson on the road since Philip Rivers was under center. I’ll take Clemson but no quatloos. I refuse to bet NC State games.
Investors should note that neither team is generating profits lately. NC State is 5-14 ATS last 19 road games though it is 8-3 ATS against Clemson.. Meanwhile, Clemson is 2-8 ATS last 10 home games.
Here are some games I will bet on though
Georgia -29.0 @ Missouri - Oh my! Georgia didn't blow out Kent State. Maybe they are what we thought they were. They are. And Mizzou is awful too. Like 40-12 loss to Kansas State bad. Mr and Mrs. H are town who to root for. Easy - root for the Dawgs.
I'll shorten up my money parlays with Pays Pays -116
Louisville over Boston College
scUM over Iowa
Minnesota over Purdue
Yeah, I know, I'm betting on scUM but if cost me a quatloo to watch them lose I'm all in.
Georgia -29.0 @ Missouri - Oh my! Georgia didn't blow out Kent State. Maybe they are what we thought they were. They are. And Mizzou is awful too. Like 40-12 loss to Kansas State bad. Mr and Mrs. H are town who to root for. Easy - root for the Dawgs.
I'll shorten up my money parlays with Pays Pays -116
Louisville over Boston College
scUM over Iowa
Minnesota over Purdue
Yeah, I know, I'm betting on scUM but if cost me a quatloo to watch them lose I'm all in.
Another Money Line Parlay this time in the CUSA Pays +112
UTEP over UNC Charlotte
UAB over Rice
Final Money Line Parlay - all Pac 12 pays -161
Arizona over Colorado
USC over Arizona State
Utah over Oregon State
Oregon over Stanford
South Alabama -8.5 @ UL Lafayette - USA is quietly having a very nice year. ULL has dropped off since losing Billy Napier to Florda
Air Force vs Navy 0ver 37.5 - Fly boys might get the over all by themselves
UTEP over UNC Charlotte
UAB over Rice
Final Money Line Parlay - all Pac 12 pays -161
Arizona over Colorado
USC over Arizona State
Utah over Oregon State
Oregon over Stanford
South Alabama -8.5 @ UL Lafayette - USA is quietly having a very nice year. ULL has dropped off since losing Billy Napier to Florda
Air Force vs Navy 0ver 37.5 - Fly boys might get the over all by themselves
The Sheriff likes these picks
UCLA (+2.5) vs Washington - Should be a great game. The Sheriff is hoping (praying?) the Baby Bruins get a victory Friday night at the Rose Bowl. Chip Kelly’s gotta win one of these games eventually.
Editor Note - Nice win last night!
Arizona (-17.5) vs Colorado - The Buffalos are the worst POWER 5 team in the country and it’s not even open for debate. The Sheriff would have gone 3-0 last week but for Colorado’s inability to cover a 3-touchdown spread at home. Karl Dorell won’t last the season. The Wildcats roll.
Wyoming (+3) vs San Jose St - Always take the Cowboys when they are playing at elevation (> 7000 feet), especially when you are getting points. San Jose will feel like this game is being played on the top of Mt Everest.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2022 Week 5 Bettors Guide
UCLA (+2.5) vs Washington - Should be a great game. The Sheriff is hoping (praying?) the Baby Bruins get a victory Friday night at the Rose Bowl. Chip Kelly’s gotta win one of these games eventually.
Editor Note - Nice win last night!
Arizona (-17.5) vs Colorado - The Buffalos are the worst POWER 5 team in the country and it’s not even open for debate. The Sheriff would have gone 3-0 last week but for Colorado’s inability to cover a 3-touchdown spread at home. Karl Dorell won’t last the season. The Wildcats roll.
Wyoming (+3) vs San Jose St - Always take the Cowboys when they are playing at elevation (> 7000 feet), especially when you are getting points. San Jose will feel like this game is being played on the top of Mt Everest.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2022 Week 5 Bettors Guide
bettors_guide_week_5.xlsx |
Remember the 2022 Go Jumbo is Oct 29 at the Westgate SuperBook