It’s time to sell high on teams coming off upset wins and fade teams that may be looking ahead to rivalry week. The SEC is also has the annual Dolly Madison cupcake buffet before rivalry week. Some of thise cupcakes may not taste so good after the game.
Here’s my picks for week 12:
Boston College +21 at Notre Dame – Simply put, Notre Dame plays up or down to the level of the competition. They beat #9 Clemson and #13 North Carolina yet lost to Marshall and Stanford. They just survived a scare from Navy last week. How focused will they be against Boston College with USC up next week?
Boston College may have found their QB. Emmett Moorhead threw for 330 yards in an upset victory at NC State last Saturday.
With no chance of a bowl, this is basically Boston College’s Super Bowl. The Eagles should be able to cover the large spread.
Investors should note – This season, the Domers are 1-5 ATS as a favorite, including 0-5 as double-digit chalk including two outright losses
Here’s my picks for week 12:
Boston College +21 at Notre Dame – Simply put, Notre Dame plays up or down to the level of the competition. They beat #9 Clemson and #13 North Carolina yet lost to Marshall and Stanford. They just survived a scare from Navy last week. How focused will they be against Boston College with USC up next week?
Boston College may have found their QB. Emmett Moorhead threw for 330 yards in an upset victory at NC State last Saturday.
With no chance of a bowl, this is basically Boston College’s Super Bowl. The Eagles should be able to cover the large spread.
Investors should note – This season, the Domers are 1-5 ATS as a favorite, including 0-5 as double-digit chalk including two outright losses
UL Lafayette +24.0 @ Florida State - Florida State has now ripped off three straight wins by a combined score of 124-22. Time to sell them at a high with Florida up next week.
FSU QB Jordan Travis has been having a great season, averaging 8.9 yards per passing attempt. He will be tested as the Ragin’ Cajuns have an solid secondary. ULL is allowing just 6.9 yards per attempt ( 25th overall).Louisiana is also stout against the run as it’s in the top half in every major rushing defensive category.
UL Lafayette has been a Sun belt power but has slipped a bit with HC Billy Napier off to the same Florida team FSU faces next week. But they will be motivated and the defense will keep this game close.
Navy +16.5 @ Central Florida - It’s also not a great spot for UCF. They are coming off three straight huge wins over Cincinnati, Memphis and Tulane. Next week they have War on I-4 against South Florida.
UCF relies on QB John Rhys Plumlee and the rushing game. Navy ranks in the top 25 in just about every rush defensive category. It’s an 11:00 game which means a slow start for both teams. And Navy will bleed the clock with their methodical triple option.
Navy travels well. The are 5-0 ATS on the road this year. I’ll take Navy and the points against a UCF going through the motions.
Investors should note - The service academies are 41-22-2 ATS when getting more than two touchdowns since 2005.
FSU QB Jordan Travis has been having a great season, averaging 8.9 yards per passing attempt. He will be tested as the Ragin’ Cajuns have an solid secondary. ULL is allowing just 6.9 yards per attempt ( 25th overall).Louisiana is also stout against the run as it’s in the top half in every major rushing defensive category.
UL Lafayette has been a Sun belt power but has slipped a bit with HC Billy Napier off to the same Florida team FSU faces next week. But they will be motivated and the defense will keep this game close.
Navy +16.5 @ Central Florida - It’s also not a great spot for UCF. They are coming off three straight huge wins over Cincinnati, Memphis and Tulane. Next week they have War on I-4 against South Florida.
UCF relies on QB John Rhys Plumlee and the rushing game. Navy ranks in the top 25 in just about every rush defensive category. It’s an 11:00 game which means a slow start for both teams. And Navy will bleed the clock with their methodical triple option.
Navy travels well. The are 5-0 ATS on the road this year. I’ll take Navy and the points against a UCF going through the motions.
Investors should note - The service academies are 41-22-2 ATS when getting more than two touchdowns since 2005.
Colorado State +22.5 vs. Air Force – Conversely fading a Service Academy laying over two touchdowns is just as appealing as taking one as the dog in that scenario. A game with limited possessions just makes it so much tougher to build bigger margins.
Plus, I don’t think the market has fully caught up to Colorado State’s offensive improvement in recent weeks. First, Clay Millen has returned under center from injury, which is a massive upgrade over the incompetent backups that saw action while he missed time.
On the other side of the ball, Air Force obviously runs as much as any team in the country. That actually plays into the hands of Colorado State, which has had much more success defending the run.
Investors should note: Since 2005, service academies have gone 37-57-2 ATS as favorites of more than two touchdowns, including an even worse clip of 20-30-2 ATS when laying over three touchdowns.
Plus, I don’t think the market has fully caught up to Colorado State’s offensive improvement in recent weeks. First, Clay Millen has returned under center from injury, which is a massive upgrade over the incompetent backups that saw action while he missed time.
On the other side of the ball, Air Force obviously runs as much as any team in the country. That actually plays into the hands of Colorado State, which has had much more success defending the run.
Investors should note: Since 2005, service academies have gone 37-57-2 ATS as favorites of more than two touchdowns, including an even worse clip of 20-30-2 ATS when laying over three touchdowns.
Vanderbilt +14.5 vs. Florida – Another look ahead spot. Florida faces Florida State next week and may be looking past Vandy in a sleepy Noon kickoff. Vandy is still in the hunt for a bowl and looks to avenge a 42-0 slaughter at the hands off the Gators last year.
It's also another game where the favored team relies on the run and the underdog can defend the run.
Vandy should score enough points against a suspect Gator defense to keep this one within the number.
Investors should note - Florida is 0-8 ATS as a road favorite. That includes four consecutive outright losses — all as favorites of over touchdown.
UCLA +1.5 vs. USC – Getting in on UCLA at a low after losing to Arizona last week. The Bruins were likely looking ahead to this game. It’s finally time to fade USC which has played only two Top 30 teams, a loos to Utah and lucky win over Oregon State.
These teams are eerily similar - both have top-10 offenses and pathetic defenses. That said, USC’s defense and special teams are worse. And USC’s offense just lost it’s best RB in Travis Dye.
USC also hasn’t seen a true mobile quarterback this year. Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s mobility and scrambling ability which put a huge stress on USC’s DL.
Investors should note - Chip Kelly is 16-8-2 ATS as a conference underdog. That includes a 9-0-1 ATS mark as a short underdog between 1-3 points.
It's also another game where the favored team relies on the run and the underdog can defend the run.
Vandy should score enough points against a suspect Gator defense to keep this one within the number.
Investors should note - Florida is 0-8 ATS as a road favorite. That includes four consecutive outright losses — all as favorites of over touchdown.
UCLA +1.5 vs. USC – Getting in on UCLA at a low after losing to Arizona last week. The Bruins were likely looking ahead to this game. It’s finally time to fade USC which has played only two Top 30 teams, a loos to Utah and lucky win over Oregon State.
These teams are eerily similar - both have top-10 offenses and pathetic defenses. That said, USC’s defense and special teams are worse. And USC’s offense just lost it’s best RB in Travis Dye.
USC also hasn’t seen a true mobile quarterback this year. Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s mobility and scrambling ability which put a huge stress on USC’s DL.
Investors should note - Chip Kelly is 16-8-2 ATS as a conference underdog. That includes a 9-0-1 ATS mark as a short underdog between 1-3 points.
UAB +15 at LSU – LSU escaped with a win over a short handed Arkansas to clinch the SEC West. That was after a huge win over Bama the week before. Expect the Tigers to come out a bit flat this week.
Meanwhile, UAB is still fighting for bowl eligibility. And with a conference title game appearance out of reach, this becomes the Blazers’ Super Bowl.
Add to that, UAB is undervalued with quarterback Dylan Hopkins back after missing time with injury. He’s significantly better than backup Jacob Zeno, who came in against Western Kentucky in relief of the injured Hopkins and eventually blew the lead in a three-point loss.
UAB then dropped its next two games with Zeno starting before blowing out North Texas last week in Hopkins’ return.
UAB also features one of the nation’s best running backs in DeWayne McBride, who averages an amazing 6.9 yards per carry. He leads a methodical, run-heavy offense that can shorten games and set up explosive passing opportunities. LSU struggles against the run ranking outside the top 100 in rush defense.
UAB has a pretty good defense and can contain mobile QB, critical when facing Jayden Daniels.
Illinois +18 @ scUM – I don’t want to jinx it but this spread is just too tempting. First, scUM is in a huge look ahead spot with Ohio State and a likely spot in the CFP on the line next week. Booger man will also keep things close to the vest and keep things off the tape for Ryan Day.
That, and both teams love to run and can the defend the run which means a running clock and short game. The over/under is set at 41 which means Illinois should need just 12 points. They can do that.
UTSA -12.5 @ Rice – Just a bad matchup for Rice. UTSA has a top five most prolific passing attack and Rice ranks below 100 in defending the pass. Teams are scorching the Owl secondary. Over the last four games Rice has let up 41, 56, 30 and 45 points. UTSA will easily exceed that average.
UTSA has won seven in a row and a win here secures a spot in the CUSA championship game. The Roadrunners will not let down.
Illinois will be more fired up for this game so I’ll take the Illini and the huge points.
And an Over I’m taking:
Old Dominion @ Appalachian State Over 51.0 - Appalachian State’s run game has been humming ranking 27th in explosiveness. Old Dominion has a below-average rush defense that ranks 74th overall, so Appalachian State should have no trouble running the ball.
ODU ranks 10th in the nation in explosiveness, while Appalachian State’s defense sits 92nd in explosiveness allowed.
Old Dominion plays at an incredibly fast pace, ranking 14th in seconds per play. Expect plenty of points in this one.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2022 Week 12 bettors Guide
That, and both teams love to run and can the defend the run which means a running clock and short game. The over/under is set at 41 which means Illinois should need just 12 points. They can do that.
UTSA -12.5 @ Rice – Just a bad matchup for Rice. UTSA has a top five most prolific passing attack and Rice ranks below 100 in defending the pass. Teams are scorching the Owl secondary. Over the last four games Rice has let up 41, 56, 30 and 45 points. UTSA will easily exceed that average.
UTSA has won seven in a row and a win here secures a spot in the CUSA championship game. The Roadrunners will not let down.
Illinois will be more fired up for this game so I’ll take the Illini and the huge points.
And an Over I’m taking:
Old Dominion @ Appalachian State Over 51.0 - Appalachian State’s run game has been humming ranking 27th in explosiveness. Old Dominion has a below-average rush defense that ranks 74th overall, so Appalachian State should have no trouble running the ball.
ODU ranks 10th in the nation in explosiveness, while Appalachian State’s defense sits 92nd in explosiveness allowed.
Old Dominion plays at an incredibly fast pace, ranking 14th in seconds per play. Expect plenty of points in this one.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2022 Week 12 bettors Guide
bettors_guide_week_12.xlsx |
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