Service Academies love to go under It's been a good two weeks. I went 18-5 during GO JUMBO and 6-3 last week (7-2 if you too the cover instead of the money line on Oregon State)
I'm sure I'll regress to the mean soon but here are this weeks picks
After several weeks of big and then bigger games, this week is setting up to be let down week. After huge wins, teams are going to be in let down mode starting with:
Navy +17.0 vs Notre Dame - It’s a major potential letdown spot for the Irish after absolutely dominating Clemson in prime time last Saturday. Getting 2 TDs and a FG in a game with a short total of 42 always catches my eye, especially with a service academy that will bleed the clock on every down, limiting the number of overall possessions.
The Irish do not dominate. They are 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in 2022, losing a pair of those games outright against Marshall and Stanford.
I’ll take the Middies at home for a quatloo.
Investors should note - the Service academies are 40-22-2 when catching more than two touchdowns since 2005.
I'm sure I'll regress to the mean soon but here are this weeks picks
After several weeks of big and then bigger games, this week is setting up to be let down week. After huge wins, teams are going to be in let down mode starting with:
Navy +17.0 vs Notre Dame - It’s a major potential letdown spot for the Irish after absolutely dominating Clemson in prime time last Saturday. Getting 2 TDs and a FG in a game with a short total of 42 always catches my eye, especially with a service academy that will bleed the clock on every down, limiting the number of overall possessions.
The Irish do not dominate. They are 0-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite in 2022, losing a pair of those games outright against Marshall and Stanford.
I’ll take the Middies at home for a quatloo.
Investors should note - the Service academies are 40-22-2 when catching more than two touchdowns since 2005.
LSU is in a huge let down spot after beating Bama Arkansas +3.5 vs LSU – LSU is coming off a huge win over Bama. The Tigers are great at home at night. This game is away at noon. The last time LSU played at before lunch CT they got crunched by Tennessee. 40-3.
Meanwhile, Arkansas should play all out after losing to Liberty last weekend. The Hogs figure to run the ball down the Tigers throat, the weak spot in LSU’s defense.
I’m going pass on this one even though the hook looks intriguing. The Sharps like Arkansas too. But, LSU knows it needs one more victory to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Just want to warn everyone thinking this short spread is easy money.
Going to root for the Tigers though to keep Bama out of the SEC championship and CFP
Investors should note – Arkansas under head coach Sam Pittman is an impressive 12-6 ATS record as an underdog, that includes an 8-3 ATS mark against top-20 teams and a perfect 6-0 mark excluding games against Alabama and Georgia.
Meanwhile, Arkansas should play all out after losing to Liberty last weekend. The Hogs figure to run the ball down the Tigers throat, the weak spot in LSU’s defense.
I’m going pass on this one even though the hook looks intriguing. The Sharps like Arkansas too. But, LSU knows it needs one more victory to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Just want to warn everyone thinking this short spread is easy money.
Going to root for the Tigers though to keep Bama out of the SEC championship and CFP
Investors should note – Arkansas under head coach Sam Pittman is an impressive 12-6 ATS record as an underdog, that includes an 8-3 ATS mark against top-20 teams and a perfect 6-0 mark excluding games against Alabama and Georgia.
Now where has that defense been all season? Mississippi State +16.0 vs Georgia – That was impressive. Georgia’s defense dominated Tennessee in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Can Mississippi State find a way to beat that defense?
The other MSU’s quick, short-passing attack that neutralizes Georgia’s defensive strengths. Additionally, Mississippi State has had one of the best red-zone offenses in the country, scoring 23 touchdowns on 27 trips inside the 20.
Mike Leach’s Bulldogs also have excelled in the red zone on defense. Holding a Georgia offense to field goals instead of TDs could ultimately decide this cover, especially when UGA has been known to stall at times inside the 20.
It doesn’t hurt that Mississippi State plays at a very methodical pace, unlike Tennessee, which should limit the number of possessions. That always favors the large underdog.
I’ll puta quatloo on the Starkville Bulldogs to cover against a large spread at home against the Athens Bulldogs in a big let down situation after huge wins over rival Florida and Tennessee.
Investors should note - Since 2005, the Pirate is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) as an underdog of 2 TDs or more. That makes him the most profitable coach that span. If you excliude Bama , which has his number, that record improves to 16-4.
The other MSU’s quick, short-passing attack that neutralizes Georgia’s defensive strengths. Additionally, Mississippi State has had one of the best red-zone offenses in the country, scoring 23 touchdowns on 27 trips inside the 20.
Mike Leach’s Bulldogs also have excelled in the red zone on defense. Holding a Georgia offense to field goals instead of TDs could ultimately decide this cover, especially when UGA has been known to stall at times inside the 20.
It doesn’t hurt that Mississippi State plays at a very methodical pace, unlike Tennessee, which should limit the number of possessions. That always favors the large underdog.
I’ll puta quatloo on the Starkville Bulldogs to cover against a large spread at home against the Athens Bulldogs in a big let down situation after huge wins over rival Florida and Tennessee.
Investors should note - Since 2005, the Pirate is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) as an underdog of 2 TDs or more. That makes him the most profitable coach that span. If you excliude Bama , which has his number, that record improves to 16-4.
Tulane is 8-1 ATS! Tulane -1.5 vs Central Florida - Maybe it’s Bruce, I’m not sure why Tulane gets no respect by bettors, maybe it’s because Bruce is an alum, but the Green Wave have done nothing but make money for their backers all season. They’re the nation’s most profitable team with an 8-1 ATS record.
Central Florida could be in let down mode after two huge hard fought wins over Cincinnati and Memphis – two games they could have easily lost.
To stop UCF you have to stop their dynamic RPO run game. That’s a strength for Tulane. They rank in the top 25 in yards per rush allowed. The DL front clogs the middle of the field, allowing its superb LB corp to roam and make tackles. Nick Anderson and Dorian Williams lead the pair of linebacker in the conference along with safety Larry Brooks, and this unit will be able to contain this explosive UCF offense.
On the other side of the ball, UCF struggles in getting to the QB. With a clean pocket, QB Michael Pratt will carve up a vulnerable UCF secondary.
I’ll take Wave laying under a field goal at home for a Min Mega
Investors should note - Since head coach Willie Fritz arrived at Tulane in 2016, the Green Wave have the nation’s most profitable team to back at home. Over that span, they’ve gone a ridiculous 26-11 ATS
Central Florida could be in let down mode after two huge hard fought wins over Cincinnati and Memphis – two games they could have easily lost.
To stop UCF you have to stop their dynamic RPO run game. That’s a strength for Tulane. They rank in the top 25 in yards per rush allowed. The DL front clogs the middle of the field, allowing its superb LB corp to roam and make tackles. Nick Anderson and Dorian Williams lead the pair of linebacker in the conference along with safety Larry Brooks, and this unit will be able to contain this explosive UCF offense.
On the other side of the ball, UCF struggles in getting to the QB. With a clean pocket, QB Michael Pratt will carve up a vulnerable UCF secondary.
I’ll take Wave laying under a field goal at home for a Min Mega
Investors should note - Since head coach Willie Fritz arrived at Tulane in 2016, the Green Wave have the nation’s most profitable team to back at home. Over that span, they’ve gone a ridiculous 26-11 ATS
TCU thrives on knocking out QBs - won't work against Texas Texas -7.0 vs TCU - Is this the week TCU finally has to face a healthy starting quarterback for an entire game?
The Horny Frogs have knocked out the starting quarterbacks for Oklahoma, Kansas State (and the backup), Kansas, played against Oklahoma State;s injured Spencer Sanders, TCU then knocked out the starting QB for Texas Tech. Amazingly, TCU has still needed a few miracles to cover in those games.
Fortunately for Texas, even of the Hypnotoad knocks out the Horn’s starting QB Quinn Ewers, it has a very competent backup quarterback in Hudson Card. Card actually has better overall numbers than Quinn Ewers in many aspects.
Regardless of who plays under center, Texas should absolutely shred this Horned Frog stop unit with explosive passing plays through the air and on the ground with the nation’s best running back in Bijan Robinson.
On the other side of the ball, don’t expect TCU to find much success on the ground against a very stingy Texas run defense. It should have success through the air against a Longhorn secondary that has holes, especially since Texas doesn’t generate much pressure.
This will also mark the TCU’s toughest road test by far, having only faced West Virginia and Kansas away from home in league play in two tightly-contested victories.
The luck finally runs out for TCU, and Texas pulls away late. I’ll put a Mini Mega on Texas to cover against an extremely lucky TCU.
Strange investing nugget - Since 2005, n the months of November and December, undefeated teams have gone just 5-12 ATS as touchdown-plus underdogs away from home. Tennessee became the latest victim just last week.
The Horny Frogs have knocked out the starting quarterbacks for Oklahoma, Kansas State (and the backup), Kansas, played against Oklahoma State;s injured Spencer Sanders, TCU then knocked out the starting QB for Texas Tech. Amazingly, TCU has still needed a few miracles to cover in those games.
Fortunately for Texas, even of the Hypnotoad knocks out the Horn’s starting QB Quinn Ewers, it has a very competent backup quarterback in Hudson Card. Card actually has better overall numbers than Quinn Ewers in many aspects.
Regardless of who plays under center, Texas should absolutely shred this Horned Frog stop unit with explosive passing plays through the air and on the ground with the nation’s best running back in Bijan Robinson.
On the other side of the ball, don’t expect TCU to find much success on the ground against a very stingy Texas run defense. It should have success through the air against a Longhorn secondary that has holes, especially since Texas doesn’t generate much pressure.
This will also mark the TCU’s toughest road test by far, having only faced West Virginia and Kansas away from home in league play in two tightly-contested victories.
The luck finally runs out for TCU, and Texas pulls away late. I’ll put a Mini Mega on Texas to cover against an extremely lucky TCU.
Strange investing nugget - Since 2005, n the months of November and December, undefeated teams have gone just 5-12 ATS as touchdown-plus underdogs away from home. Tennessee became the latest victim just last week.
Auburn is playing inspired under Cadillac Auburn -1.5 vs Texas A&M - Texas A&M is reeling. They’ve lost five straight and has only beaten two Di 1A teams this year, Miami (FL) which doesn’t look all that impressive now and Arkansas which they beat on a missed walk off FG by the Hogs. The locker room is toast too, after multiple suspensions too.
Meanwhile, after moving on from dead man walking Bryan Harsin the Tigers have rallied around interim HC Cadillac Williams.
It’s also as a great matchup for the Auburn offense, which thrives on the run game whereas A&M’s rush defense is the weak link in their defense.
Last week, Florida became the latest team to gash the Aggies on the ground, rushing for over 300 yards averaging 6.5 yards per attempt.
I’ll take the fired up home team laying a short number against a lifeless road team.
Meanwhile, after moving on from dead man walking Bryan Harsin the Tigers have rallied around interim HC Cadillac Williams.
It’s also as a great matchup for the Auburn offense, which thrives on the run game whereas A&M’s rush defense is the weak link in their defense.
Last week, Florida became the latest team to gash the Aggies on the ground, rushing for over 300 yards averaging 6.5 yards per attempt.
I’ll take the fired up home team laying a short number against a lifeless road team.
Arizona's defense just plain sucks Investors should note - Since 2005, Auburn is the most-profitable short home favorite (3.5 or less) in conference games at 7-1 ATS.
Ole Miss vs Alabama under 65.0 – This could be Lane Kiffin’s dress rehearsal for the Auburn job. Something is just off with this year’s Bama team but the run defense is good. That is what the Rebels try to do.
Mississippi defense limits running explosive plays so this game will be one of lengthy clock chewing drives. I’ll take the under for a quatloo on a rather large 65 point total.
I would take Ole Miss to cover too but I hate betting against Saban after a loss.
Investors should note – I’m going against the trend here. The over has hit five of the last seven between these two
UCLA -19.5 vs Arizona – Arizona’s defense is the worst. Literally the worst in college football. They rank 130th in rush defense and 130th in assing defense. UCLA will have no problem gashing the Wildcat defense all day.
UCLA sucks against the run but Arizona can’t do that either.
Arizona is going to get behind early, start throwing and will have multi picks on the day
Ole Miss vs Alabama under 65.0 – This could be Lane Kiffin’s dress rehearsal for the Auburn job. Something is just off with this year’s Bama team but the run defense is good. That is what the Rebels try to do.
Mississippi defense limits running explosive plays so this game will be one of lengthy clock chewing drives. I’ll take the under for a quatloo on a rather large 65 point total.
I would take Ole Miss to cover too but I hate betting against Saban after a loss.
Investors should note – I’m going against the trend here. The over has hit five of the last seven between these two
UCLA -19.5 vs Arizona – Arizona’s defense is the worst. Literally the worst in college football. They rank 130th in rush defense and 130th in assing defense. UCLA will have no problem gashing the Wildcat defense all day.
UCLA sucks against the run but Arizona can’t do that either.
Arizona is going to get behind early, start throwing and will have multi picks on the day
SJSU leads the MWC in sacks and rush defense Army @ Troy under 45.5 – Both teams love to play deliberate and run the ball. Both teams defend the run quite well too.
Army is 3-3 under against Div 1A while Troy is 6-3 under. Troy has allowed 47 points in the last four games combined. It will be an ugly game…unless you have the under.
San Jose State -2.5 @ San Diego State – San Jose State is already bowl eligible with a 6-2 record. The rely on their defense which is the best in the Mountain West in rush defense (17th overall) and sacks (10th overall).
San Diego State’s offense is a mess. They can’t run and are playing wither a 2nd string QB or injured 1st stringer. Doesn’t matter, they both are struggling with a combined 8 TDs and 7 picks.
The Spaztec’s defense is mediocre, a far cry from years pass. They do get to the QB but SJSU is excellent in pass blocking (12th overall)
I’ll take the other Spartans to over the short spread to stay on Fresno state’s heels in the MWC.
Army is 3-3 under against Div 1A while Troy is 6-3 under. Troy has allowed 47 points in the last four games combined. It will be an ugly game…unless you have the under.
San Jose State -2.5 @ San Diego State – San Jose State is already bowl eligible with a 6-2 record. The rely on their defense which is the best in the Mountain West in rush defense (17th overall) and sacks (10th overall).
San Diego State’s offense is a mess. They can’t run and are playing wither a 2nd string QB or injured 1st stringer. Doesn’t matter, they both are struggling with a combined 8 TDs and 7 picks.
The Spaztec’s defense is mediocre, a far cry from years pass. They do get to the QB but SJSU is excellent in pass blocking (12th overall)
I’ll take the other Spartans to over the short spread to stay on Fresno state’s heels in the MWC.
Bryce Carpenter can run too Coastal Carolina -4.5 vs Southern Miss – When it was announced that CCU star QB was out for this game the line plunged from 11.5 to 4.5. Don’t get me wrong, he will be missed but Coastal should still be able to run over the Southern Miss’ defense. The Golden Eagles were just gashed by Georgia State’s offense featuring a running QB 42-14. Backup QB Bryce Carpenter is experienced and is a good runner too.
Southern Miss relies on their run game which is what Coastal excels in stopping. They just shut down Marshall and App State and should have no probelm with a fading Southern Miss
I’ll take the home team in a betting over reaction for a quatloo.
And for all the games, spreads and much much more here is the 2022 Week 11 Bettors Guide
Southern Miss relies on their run game which is what Coastal excels in stopping. They just shut down Marshall and App State and should have no probelm with a fading Southern Miss
I’ll take the home team in a betting over reaction for a quatloo.
And for all the games, spreads and much much more here is the 2022 Week 11 Bettors Guide
| bettors_guide_week_11.xlsx |
Remember - the 2023 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 11th
And don't forget your drink coupons
And don't forget your drink coupons
