Christian McCaffery abused the pathetic Seattle run defense in Week 15 College football bombed with real dud of a championship game on Monday, so the keys have been handed back to the NFL to put up some fun competitive games. The makings are there with plenty of good quarterbacks in Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Tom Brady a playoff underdog, and Mr Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, is guiding the hottest team in the field.
Not every game is expected to be full of fireworks. Miami and Baltimore will start second- or third-string quarterbacks, and we could end up with three double-digit underdogs by kickoff.
But those spreads could be tempting to experienced investors. Here's who I'm going with this weekend.
San Francisco -9.5 vs Seattle - You, me and your newest best drinking buddy at the corner of the bar can call this game plan for the Niners. The Seahawks, are abysmal against the run. No team has a worse adjusted EPA ranking against the run than the Seahawks.
The Niners are one of the best running teams in the league. Christian McCaffrey’s abused Seattle back in week 15 with 108 yards rushing and a TD. McCaffrey is questionable with a sore knee but practiced Wednesday and has been playing well despite the injury. In the past six games, he's accumulated 767 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns on 128 touches.
If he struggles, the good news for Niner fans is that RB Elijah Mitchell should be ready to go. Mitchell has played in only five games this season but was eased into the playing rotation last week getting five touches for 55 yards.
Seattle loves to play a zone defense, calling zone coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league. TE George Kittle thrives against the zone, part of the reason he scored 2 TDs against the Seahawks in that same game.
Not every game is expected to be full of fireworks. Miami and Baltimore will start second- or third-string quarterbacks, and we could end up with three double-digit underdogs by kickoff.
But those spreads could be tempting to experienced investors. Here's who I'm going with this weekend.
San Francisco -9.5 vs Seattle - You, me and your newest best drinking buddy at the corner of the bar can call this game plan for the Niners. The Seahawks, are abysmal against the run. No team has a worse adjusted EPA ranking against the run than the Seahawks.
The Niners are one of the best running teams in the league. Christian McCaffrey’s abused Seattle back in week 15 with 108 yards rushing and a TD. McCaffrey is questionable with a sore knee but practiced Wednesday and has been playing well despite the injury. In the past six games, he's accumulated 767 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns on 128 touches.
If he struggles, the good news for Niner fans is that RB Elijah Mitchell should be ready to go. Mitchell has played in only five games this season but was eased into the playing rotation last week getting five touches for 55 yards.
Seattle loves to play a zone defense, calling zone coverage at the 2nd highest rate in the league. TE George Kittle thrives against the zone, part of the reason he scored 2 TDs against the Seahawks in that same game.
George Kittle thrives against zone defenses Getting pressure on Niner QB Brock Purdy will be key since Seattle needs to disrupt his rhythm and try and rattle his confidence. Purdy ranks 35th in QB Rating against the blitz, while he’s first in net yards per attempt without the blitz.
But the Seahawks rarely blitz, bringing additional pressure at the 3rd lowest rate in the league. Seattle was only got to him once the first time, and they won't have the crowd noise advantage on Saturday.
For Seattle, the season is already a huge success. They traded away Russell Wilson netting Seattle several players, including DL Shelby Harris and TE Noah Fant, two first-round picks, two second-rounders, and a fifth-rounder. Denver then mishandled Wilson, falling to 5-12 putting Seattle in the fifth spot in the upcoming draft.
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but QB Geno Smith came from a placeholder to have a great beginning of the season before tailing off and just making the playoffs. For Smith, play action is the key to his game. He ranks sixth in QB rating on play action. Setting up the play action will be handing off to rookie EB sensation, former Spartan, Kenneth Walker III.
But the Seahawks rarely blitz, bringing additional pressure at the 3rd lowest rate in the league. Seattle was only got to him once the first time, and they won't have the crowd noise advantage on Saturday.
For Seattle, the season is already a huge success. They traded away Russell Wilson netting Seattle several players, including DL Shelby Harris and TE Noah Fant, two first-round picks, two second-rounders, and a fifth-rounder. Denver then mishandled Wilson, falling to 5-12 putting Seattle in the fifth spot in the upcoming draft.
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year, but QB Geno Smith came from a placeholder to have a great beginning of the season before tailing off and just making the playoffs. For Smith, play action is the key to his game. He ranks sixth in QB rating on play action. Setting up the play action will be handing off to rookie EB sensation, former Spartan, Kenneth Walker III.
Kenneth Walker III is the odds on favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year KWII is the odds on favorite to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the year (-120) after rushing for 1,050 yards and 9 TDs with no fumbles so far this year. But using the run to set up the play action is difficult to say the least against the Niners. They're ranked at the top of adjusted EPA in ground defense, which would explain why Kenneth Walker struggled in this matchup four weeks ago when he was limited to 47 yards and 0 TDs.
With Walker likely shut down, Smith will be targeting his two superb WRs, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. San Francisco plays zone coverage at the fifth highest rate in the league which will benefit Locket. Metcalf’s production drops by half when facing zone versus man to man.
The 49ers also do a good job of dominating time of possession, limiting the overall volume of their opponents’ plays. San Francisco allowed the fifth-fewest plays per game during the regular season.
San Francisco is better in just about every way, thus the high spread. San Francisco has been on a roll winning 10 straight, covering seven of their last eight.
Meanwhile, Seattle started out 6-3 before going 3-5 over the last half of the season while going 1-7 ATS. A large part of the reason is that Geno Smith has been a turnover machine lately with just four picks in the first nine games but ended with seven picks over his last eight games.
I’m going to go with San Francisco to cover the high spread but just one quatloo. Seattle is playing with house money with nothing to lose. They could easily get a back door cover like they did in week 13, scoring a TD with 3:35 to go to get the cover.
Investors should note: 15 teams have played a playoff game on a 10+ game SU win streak. Those teams are 7-8 SU and a losing 2-13 ATS.
Much is made of how difficult is is to beat a team three times in one season. The 49ers swept the Seahawks during the regular season. They will be the 20th team in the Wild Card era to face an opponent a third time after a SU sweep in the regular season. Those teams are 12-7 SU and 9-9-1 ATS.
With Walker likely shut down, Smith will be targeting his two superb WRs, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. San Francisco plays zone coverage at the fifth highest rate in the league which will benefit Locket. Metcalf’s production drops by half when facing zone versus man to man.
The 49ers also do a good job of dominating time of possession, limiting the overall volume of their opponents’ plays. San Francisco allowed the fifth-fewest plays per game during the regular season.
San Francisco is better in just about every way, thus the high spread. San Francisco has been on a roll winning 10 straight, covering seven of their last eight.
Meanwhile, Seattle started out 6-3 before going 3-5 over the last half of the season while going 1-7 ATS. A large part of the reason is that Geno Smith has been a turnover machine lately with just four picks in the first nine games but ended with seven picks over his last eight games.
I’m going to go with San Francisco to cover the high spread but just one quatloo. Seattle is playing with house money with nothing to lose. They could easily get a back door cover like they did in week 13, scoring a TD with 3:35 to go to get the cover.
Investors should note: 15 teams have played a playoff game on a 10+ game SU win streak. Those teams are 7-8 SU and a losing 2-13 ATS.
Much is made of how difficult is is to beat a team three times in one season. The 49ers swept the Seahawks during the regular season. They will be the 20th team in the Wild Card era to face an opponent a third time after a SU sweep in the regular season. Those teams are 12-7 SU and 9-9-1 ATS.
LA Chargers -2.5 @ Jacksonville – Jacksonville is the Detroit Lions of the AFC. After winning just two games last year, they started the year 3-7 before finishing the year on a 6-1 winning streak, nabbing the AFC South title in a play in game against Tennessee, The Jaguars have a terrific passing game with a great young QB, a dynamic RB, and a terrific pass rush. The Chargers have a better version of all three of those things, and they’re better in most other places too.
The Jaguars are outstanding at one specific thing — passing the ball with Trevor Lawrence carving up defenses. The Jaguars offense ranks in the top 10 thanks to the No. 6 passing attack.
But LA has built its defense to take away the pass. Something required in a conference that features Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and now Lawrence. The Chargers defense started slowly but found its footing after the bye. The pass defense has leapt to No. 2 in DVOA since Week 8, and now they get Joey Bosa back. Bosa makes the Charger defense much much better. When he was out the Chargers allowed 23.4 PPG. With Bosa on the field they only surrendered 17.7 PPG, nearly a touchdown difference.
Jacksonville’s offense has been trailing off lately. Lawrence has been dealing with a nagging toe injury, which could be the culprit, but he’s also playing behind a shaky offensive line without left tackle Cam Robinson, who suffered a season-ending injury.
The Jaguars are outstanding at one specific thing — passing the ball with Trevor Lawrence carving up defenses. The Jaguars offense ranks in the top 10 thanks to the No. 6 passing attack.
But LA has built its defense to take away the pass. Something required in a conference that features Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and now Lawrence. The Chargers defense started slowly but found its footing after the bye. The pass defense has leapt to No. 2 in DVOA since Week 8, and now they get Joey Bosa back. Bosa makes the Charger defense much much better. When he was out the Chargers allowed 23.4 PPG. With Bosa on the field they only surrendered 17.7 PPG, nearly a touchdown difference.
Jacksonville’s offense has been trailing off lately. Lawrence has been dealing with a nagging toe injury, which could be the culprit, but he’s also playing behind a shaky offensive line without left tackle Cam Robinson, who suffered a season-ending injury.
Joey Bosa's return spells trouble for Lawrence L.A.’s pass defense should keep Lawrence and his receivers in check, but Jacksonville’s defense can’t do the same against Justin Herbert now that he’s got Keenan Allen back. The Chargers offense ranks top 10 by DVOA over the past six weeks now that it’s healthy,
Jacksonville’s pass defense was an ugly 28th for the season. The Jaguars pass rush is fierce and will be a factor, but Herbert will light this secondary up when he finds time. The Jaguars defense plays man coverage more than most teams. Herbert is far more effective against man coverage (fifth in expected points per play versus man) than against zone defenses (21st versus zone).
The Chargers throw the ball the second most in the league behind only the Tampa Bay and that very likely will continue even without injured Mike Williams. Expect Herbert to target Austin Ekeler even more than usual. The Bolts love getting Ekeler the ball in space through the air. In fact, the 123 passes thrown his way rank 19th in the league. They’re 18 more than Christian McCaffrey, who ranks second among running backs with 105 targets.
Jacksonville’s pass defense was an ugly 28th for the season. The Jaguars pass rush is fierce and will be a factor, but Herbert will light this secondary up when he finds time. The Jaguars defense plays man coverage more than most teams. Herbert is far more effective against man coverage (fifth in expected points per play versus man) than against zone defenses (21st versus zone).
The Chargers throw the ball the second most in the league behind only the Tampa Bay and that very likely will continue even without injured Mike Williams. Expect Herbert to target Austin Ekeler even more than usual. The Bolts love getting Ekeler the ball in space through the air. In fact, the 123 passes thrown his way rank 19th in the league. They’re 18 more than Christian McCaffrey, who ranks second among running backs with 105 targets.
Austin Ekeler should see plenty of targets Jacksonville also ranks dead last in defending tight ends so Gerald Everett should be featured more too.
The Jags dominated the back in September 38-10, but don’t put too much credence on that game. Justin Herbert played with bad ribs on a short week without his star WR Allen, C Corey Linsley, or CB J.C. Jackson, and the Chargers also lost Bosa and LT Rashawn Slater mid-game. Losing six of its 10 best guys will do that.
The Chargers are much healthier now and finally look like the team everyone expected coming into the season. I’ll take the Chargers to cover for a Mega Bet.
Investors should note: As a favorite or an underdog of fewer than 2.5 pts, Trevor Lawrence is 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in his career.
Justin Herbert is money in revenge games. He’s 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS after losing to an opponent.
The Jags dominated the back in September 38-10, but don’t put too much credence on that game. Justin Herbert played with bad ribs on a short week without his star WR Allen, C Corey Linsley, or CB J.C. Jackson, and the Chargers also lost Bosa and LT Rashawn Slater mid-game. Losing six of its 10 best guys will do that.
The Chargers are much healthier now and finally look like the team everyone expected coming into the season. I’ll take the Chargers to cover for a Mega Bet.
Investors should note: As a favorite or an underdog of fewer than 2.5 pts, Trevor Lawrence is 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in his career.
Justin Herbert is money in revenge games. He’s 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS after losing to an opponent.
