Allen can beat you with his arm and his feet. Buffalo -13.5 vs Miami – It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Buffalo, but with Damar Hamlin being released from the hospital, the Bills can fully focus on the Dolphins. The Bills and Dolphins meet for the third time this season, with their most recent matchup resulting in a close Bills victory. But a few things have changed since that Week 15 matchup. The Bills have gotten healthier, while the Dolphins have done the opposite, losing players left and right, even down to starting third string QB Skylar Thompson.
The Dolphins’ defense remains their best hope to keep this game close and locking down the Bills run game would be a gigantic step toward doing just that. The Dolphins are superb against the run. They held Devin Singletary to 42 yards on 13 carries when they last met.
But the Bills have been getting good production out of James Cook lately. As the season has progressed, Cook’s comfort-level in reading his keys, blitz pickup and in the pass game have all gotten better. Cook provides an explosive element that Singletary lacks. Singletary will likely start the game, with Cook working in shortly after. From there, the Bills will likely just go with the hot hand strategy.
The Dolphins’ defense remains their best hope to keep this game close and locking down the Bills run game would be a gigantic step toward doing just that. The Dolphins are superb against the run. They held Devin Singletary to 42 yards on 13 carries when they last met.
But the Bills have been getting good production out of James Cook lately. As the season has progressed, Cook’s comfort-level in reading his keys, blitz pickup and in the pass game have all gotten better. Cook provides an explosive element that Singletary lacks. Singletary will likely start the game, with Cook working in shortly after. From there, the Bills will likely just go with the hot hand strategy.
Miami loves to bring the heat. If the Dolphins follow their usual defensive protocol, there will likely be a healthy amount of man coverage mixed in against the Bills. In the Week 15 matchup, the Dolphins used man coverage on 57.7 percent of their snaps — their second-highest rate in a single game this season. Man coverage favors the Stefon Diggs matchup against just about anyone in the Fins secondary.
Miami is a blitz happy team too, they send at least five pass rushers on 36.4 percent of their pass-rushing opportunities, the third-highest rate in the NFL this season. When blitzed, Allen is better running it than passing. He is 31st in completion rate and YPC when blitzed but he does have 92 yards on 10 runs. Expect the Dolphins to blitz in an attempt to keep the game in hand.
The Dolphins also ran extremely well against the Bills in that matchup; Raheem Mostert looked like a Pro Bowl back as he dashed for 136 yards on just 17 carries. This will be significant, only if Miami isn't getting blown out. Buffalo could easily explode offensively, forcing the Dolphins to abandon the run.
Miami is a blitz happy team too, they send at least five pass rushers on 36.4 percent of their pass-rushing opportunities, the third-highest rate in the NFL this season. When blitzed, Allen is better running it than passing. He is 31st in completion rate and YPC when blitzed but he does have 92 yards on 10 runs. Expect the Dolphins to blitz in an attempt to keep the game in hand.
The Dolphins also ran extremely well against the Bills in that matchup; Raheem Mostert looked like a Pro Bowl back as he dashed for 136 yards on just 17 carries. This will be significant, only if Miami isn't getting blown out. Buffalo could easily explode offensively, forcing the Dolphins to abandon the run.
James Cook adds an explosive element to the game. Miami will need to get the run game going because Skylar Thompson is just plain awful. He sucks in his reads and progressions, and if moved from his drop spot in the pocket, he is prone to some highly questionable throws. The key will be getting to Thompson and taking away his first read. The Bills may feel more compelled to blitz than usual, with man coverage, because moving Thompson off his spot will be the key to turnovers.
Helping the Bills’ hopes of defending the run is the Dolphins offensive line, who have struggled for much of the season and are also now annihilated by injuries. Star LT Terrio Armstead is questionable as is RT Brandon Shell. Starting left guard Liam Eichenberg is doubtful and hasn’t practiced all week. The Bills’ defensive line is set up to dominate.
And don’t forget returner Nyheim Hines. He got everyone’s attention taking two kickoff returns to the house last week against the Patriots.
Josh Allen versus Skylar Thompson, I’ll lay the points all day long. The Bills offense is border line unstoppable. They have a huge advantage on offense, defense, special teams, experience and at coach. And you have a seventh round drft choice making his debut in perhaps the most hostile environment in football? Don’t sweat this one.
I won’t – I’m in for a Mega Bet on the Bills to cover the first half spread of 7.5 and another Mini Mega to cover the 13.5 point spread.
Investors should note: Double-digit underdogs are 3-11 in the playoffs since 2011. Double-digit underdogs in the Wild Card Round are 1-7 ATS in the last 20 years.
Helping the Bills’ hopes of defending the run is the Dolphins offensive line, who have struggled for much of the season and are also now annihilated by injuries. Star LT Terrio Armstead is questionable as is RT Brandon Shell. Starting left guard Liam Eichenberg is doubtful and hasn’t practiced all week. The Bills’ defensive line is set up to dominate.
And don’t forget returner Nyheim Hines. He got everyone’s attention taking two kickoff returns to the house last week against the Patriots.
Josh Allen versus Skylar Thompson, I’ll lay the points all day long. The Bills offense is border line unstoppable. They have a huge advantage on offense, defense, special teams, experience and at coach. And you have a seventh round drft choice making his debut in perhaps the most hostile environment in football? Don’t sweat this one.
I won’t – I’m in for a Mega Bet on the Bills to cover the first half spread of 7.5 and another Mini Mega to cover the 13.5 point spread.
Investors should note: Double-digit underdogs are 3-11 in the playoffs since 2011. Double-digit underdogs in the Wild Card Round are 1-7 ATS in the last 20 years.
Saquon Barkley can bust the game wide open NY Giants +3.0 @ Minnesota – The Vikings defense is putrid. It allowed more 400-yard performances in consecutive games than any Vikings team in history. Just how bad is the Vikings’ defense? The Vikings have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, but they aren’t strong against the run, either. And they present a lot of light boxes, which invite opponents to run.
RB Saquon Barkley can bust a game wide open if he gets a crease. Barkley, who wasn’t completely healthy, was effective on the ground the first time these two met, gaining 84 yards on 14 carries.
QB Daniel Jones is a bit erratic, but he can run around and make stuff happen if a defense gives him the chance. Jones’ legs have been a weapon all season. He ranks 10th in the NFL with 57 rushes for first downs this season. And he leads the league with 47.5 percent of his carries producing a first down.
RB Saquon Barkley can bust a game wide open if he gets a crease. Barkley, who wasn’t completely healthy, was effective on the ground the first time these two met, gaining 84 yards on 14 carries.
QB Daniel Jones is a bit erratic, but he can run around and make stuff happen if a defense gives him the chance. Jones’ legs have been a weapon all season. He ranks 10th in the NFL with 57 rushes for first downs this season. And he leads the league with 47.5 percent of his carries producing a first down.
Adoree Jackson's return should help limit Jefferson The Vikings' defense may have been dreadful all year, but the offense has been able to carry it in many close wins. The Giants have some major problems in the linebacking corps and secondary that Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson will be able to exploit. Hockenson has at least five catches in seven of his nine full Minnesota games, and he’s had 9+ targets in six of them. He’s become a real security blanket for Kirk Cousins.
How the Giants defend Jefferson, will be a key to the game. The first time these two teams played, the Giants gave Jefferson free releases off the line of scrimmage. Now they get Adoree Jackson back who will play him much tighter. Jackson figures to travel with Jefferson. No corner can shut down the league’s leading receiver one-on-one, but Jackson’s superior talent should allow him to play tighter coverage than Fabian Moreau did in the first matchup.
While New York is getting key players back, Minnesota will be without RT Brian O'Neill. This will be problematic for Kirk Cousins, who has a huge disparity in how he performs when under pressure versus kept clean. Cousins has a 72.4 completion percentage when seeing no pressure in the pocket as a opposed to a 51.5 completion rate when facing pressure. The Giants rank fifth in pressure rate, which is bad news for Cousins and the rest of the offense.
These teams are headed in opposite directions. Since Week 11 (excluding Week 18), the Giants rank as the sixth-best offense according to total offensive DVOA. The Vikings were 25th in the same category over that span.
We are getting points against the worst defense in the playoffs, sounds like an easy play to me. The Giants are 6-1 ATS on the road this season, and will have the coaching edge in this game as well. Put me in for a Mini Mega on the money line at +130.
How the Giants defend Jefferson, will be a key to the game. The first time these two teams played, the Giants gave Jefferson free releases off the line of scrimmage. Now they get Adoree Jackson back who will play him much tighter. Jackson figures to travel with Jefferson. No corner can shut down the league’s leading receiver one-on-one, but Jackson’s superior talent should allow him to play tighter coverage than Fabian Moreau did in the first matchup.
While New York is getting key players back, Minnesota will be without RT Brian O'Neill. This will be problematic for Kirk Cousins, who has a huge disparity in how he performs when under pressure versus kept clean. Cousins has a 72.4 completion percentage when seeing no pressure in the pocket as a opposed to a 51.5 completion rate when facing pressure. The Giants rank fifth in pressure rate, which is bad news for Cousins and the rest of the offense.
These teams are headed in opposite directions. Since Week 11 (excluding Week 18), the Giants rank as the sixth-best offense according to total offensive DVOA. The Vikings were 25th in the same category over that span.
We are getting points against the worst defense in the playoffs, sounds like an easy play to me. The Giants are 6-1 ATS on the road this season, and will have the coaching edge in this game as well. Put me in for a Mini Mega on the money line at +130.
Roquan Smith has been a huge addition to the Raven's defense Cincinnati -8.5 vs Baltimore – It’s a rare back to back game as these two met in week 18, a 27-16 Bengals home win. The Bengals may have scored 27 but they weren't nearly as impressive on this side of the ball as that figure would indicate. Twenty-one points came off turnovers, as their offense sputtered otherwise. Joe Burrow was shockingly inaccurate, missing receivers for multiple touchdowns. Tee Higgins also had a brutal drop on a deep ball that may have gone for a score as well.
Perhaps the Bengals were utilizing a vanilla offense with the playoffs looming, but there are some concerns stemming from the offensive line. Right tackle La'el Collins is out, which allowed the Ravens to put plenty of pressure on Burrow.
The Ravens made some adjustments to their defense during the middle of the season to allow their pass rush to be better than the season-long stats indicate.. Buoyed by the addition of inside linebacker Roquan Smith, the Ravens have allowed the league’s second-fewest points per game (14.7) and the third-fewest yards per game (288.8) over the final nine weeks of the regular season. Baltimore has given up more than 20 points to an opposing offense just once since Week 8, and that was all the way back on Nov. 27 versus the Jaguars.
Perhaps the Bengals were utilizing a vanilla offense with the playoffs looming, but there are some concerns stemming from the offensive line. Right tackle La'el Collins is out, which allowed the Ravens to put plenty of pressure on Burrow.
The Ravens made some adjustments to their defense during the middle of the season to allow their pass rush to be better than the season-long stats indicate.. Buoyed by the addition of inside linebacker Roquan Smith, the Ravens have allowed the league’s second-fewest points per game (14.7) and the third-fewest yards per game (288.8) over the final nine weeks of the regular season. Baltimore has given up more than 20 points to an opposing offense just once since Week 8, and that was all the way back on Nov. 27 versus the Jaguars.
The Ravens offense is sputtering under Tyler Huntley Burrow will have to perform better in this game because he won't be able to count on Joe Mixon being a big producer. The Ravens are even better against the run than the pass, ranking fifth in adjusted EPA ground defense.
Cincinnati may have struggled last week, but the Ravens offense is really hurting. The Ravens haven’t scored more than one offensive touchdown in a game in over a month The absence of Lamar Jackson is starting to show how valuable he is. In the six games Jackson has thrown five or fewer passes, the Ravens have recorded six of their seven lowest point totals.
They have had just one game of over 200 yards of passing offense. That game was last week against the Bengals. For context, 169 of their passing in that game came in the fourth quarter when the game was out of hand.
Cincinnati may have struggled last week, but the Ravens offense is really hurting. The Ravens haven’t scored more than one offensive touchdown in a game in over a month The absence of Lamar Jackson is starting to show how valuable he is. In the six games Jackson has thrown five or fewer passes, the Ravens have recorded six of their seven lowest point totals.
They have had just one game of over 200 yards of passing offense. That game was last week against the Bengals. For context, 169 of their passing in that game came in the fourth quarter when the game was out of hand.
Though the return of JK Dobbins should help Tyler Huntley is expected to start but he's experiencing shoulder tendinitis. It's unclear how much this would hinder him. Huntley is tasked with a difficult matchup against a Cincinnati pass rush that puts lots of heat on the quarterback.
Baltimore should get a boost from the return of J.K. Dobbins. Since his return, Dobbins has been fantastic, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. But the Bengals are also stout versus the run, so J.K. Dobbins might not be able to accomplish much.
Cincinnati has a massive edge at quarterback and wide receiver, which will likely prove to be the difference but this looks like too many points. I’ll take Baltimore and the points but no quatloos.
Investors should note: Road division teams in the first two rounds are 13-4-1 ATS (77%) and an amazing 11-6 straight up (65%) with a spread of nine or below.
John Harbaugh is 54-35-3 ATS (61%) as an underdog, including 8-4 in the playoffs and 8-1 as an underdog of eight or more. He’s also 5-0 straight-up (SU) and ATS in road Wild Card games.
Baltimore should get a boost from the return of J.K. Dobbins. Since his return, Dobbins has been fantastic, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. But the Bengals are also stout versus the run, so J.K. Dobbins might not be able to accomplish much.
Cincinnati has a massive edge at quarterback and wide receiver, which will likely prove to be the difference but this looks like too many points. I’ll take Baltimore and the points but no quatloos.
Investors should note: Road division teams in the first two rounds are 13-4-1 ATS (77%) and an amazing 11-6 straight up (65%) with a spread of nine or below.
John Harbaugh is 54-35-3 ATS (61%) as an underdog, including 8-4 in the playoffs and 8-1 as an underdog of eight or more. He’s also 5-0 straight-up (SU) and ATS in road Wild Card games.
