
The Wild card round has some great games. Let’s see if the Divisional round can keep up the pace.
First a couple of interesting stats. History says to fade home favorites ATS in the Divisional Round as they are 26-47-0. And it’s worse for the #1 seeds as they are 13-25-1 ATS after their week off. If the point spread jumps to 10 points or better (and its getting close) watch out as those teams are 8-24-1 ATS.
Only once in the last eight years have both 1-seeds covered in the Divisional Round, and only twice since 2003. They have, however, gone 0-2 ATS eight times during that same span.
With that in mind – here are my picks.
Jacksonville +9.0 @ Kansas City – Don’t look now, but here come the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville has won six straight games, including last week’s miraculous comeback win over the Chargers. Trevor Lawrence threw four first-half picks and still won, thanks to three second-half touchdowns.
The Jags are ninth on offense and 26th on defense. The problem for the Jaguars defense is where they especially struggle: against the pass. That’s likely going to be a huge liability against Patrick Mahomes and the top passing offense in the league.
Patrick Mahomes had one of the best games of the year against their defense back in Week 10. He was on fire, going 26-of-35 for 331 yards, four touchdowns and a pick in a 27-17 win. And he did it without JuJu Smith-Schuster, who suffered a concussion in the first half.
The Chiefs can also rely on Mahomes to make it happen when it matters. KC scored the most red zone touchdowns (50) and boasts the top conversion rate (43%) on third and 10-plus yards this season.
The Jaguars' ranking against the pass has improved since that loss to Kansas City, but they've played against a ton of sketchy offenses down the stretch. When they plated against explosive offenses, like the Lions and Cowboys, they let up at least 34 points.
First a couple of interesting stats. History says to fade home favorites ATS in the Divisional Round as they are 26-47-0. And it’s worse for the #1 seeds as they are 13-25-1 ATS after their week off. If the point spread jumps to 10 points or better (and its getting close) watch out as those teams are 8-24-1 ATS.
Only once in the last eight years have both 1-seeds covered in the Divisional Round, and only twice since 2003. They have, however, gone 0-2 ATS eight times during that same span.
With that in mind – here are my picks.
Jacksonville +9.0 @ Kansas City – Don’t look now, but here come the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville has won six straight games, including last week’s miraculous comeback win over the Chargers. Trevor Lawrence threw four first-half picks and still won, thanks to three second-half touchdowns.
The Jags are ninth on offense and 26th on defense. The problem for the Jaguars defense is where they especially struggle: against the pass. That’s likely going to be a huge liability against Patrick Mahomes and the top passing offense in the league.
Patrick Mahomes had one of the best games of the year against their defense back in Week 10. He was on fire, going 26-of-35 for 331 yards, four touchdowns and a pick in a 27-17 win. And he did it without JuJu Smith-Schuster, who suffered a concussion in the first half.
The Chiefs can also rely on Mahomes to make it happen when it matters. KC scored the most red zone touchdowns (50) and boasts the top conversion rate (43%) on third and 10-plus yards this season.
The Jaguars' ranking against the pass has improved since that loss to Kansas City, but they've played against a ton of sketchy offenses down the stretch. When they plated against explosive offenses, like the Lions and Cowboys, they let up at least 34 points.

The Jags may be solid against the run but they are woeful against tight ends. I made a nice winning wager on Gerald Everett last week and he is no Travis Kelce.
This means that Jacksonville will need to win in a shootout. Trevor Lawrence has been a slow starter. Brilliant in the comeback win over Dallas and in the thriller last week against the Chargers, he finds his rhythm when he’s able to fire away with nothing to lose. The problem is that he’s putting his team in a position to need the monster comeback.
I doubt that Trevor Lawrence will start out with four picks again but he did start out slowly against KC in their last meeting too. The Jags punted five times and missed a FG on their first five possessions.
Lawrence ended up with some nice numbers (25-40, 250 yds, 2TDs, 0 picks) but they were mostly in garbage time. Andy Reid won't have the same sort of late-game meltdown that the inept Brandon Staley was guilty of last Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs typically get off to a fast start. They rank fourth in first half margin (+4.5), and coming off the bye week, that likely means they will get off to another quick start as Andy Reid typically thrives when having extra time to prepare.
Lawrence had a slow start to the aforementioned Week 10 meeting between these teams, though he generated some good garbage-time numbers. He ended up 29-of-40 for 259 yards and two touchdowns. However, that was before he found a rhythm with Evan Engram and Zay Jones. The Chiefs are also not very good when it comes to defending tight ends, so Engram and Jones figure to have a strong performances.
I’m going to go with a Mini Mega on Kansas City -5.5 in the first half. The spread is too high for me for the full game and another Jags back door cover.
I’ll also go with some player props, they have been profitable for me during the playoffs.
For this game I’ll put a quatloo each on:
Trevor Lawrence over 248.5 yards passing
Christian Kirk over 63.5 yards receiving (109 in the first game)
Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs
Investors should note:
The Chiefs weren’t friendly to bettors this season, going 6-11 ATS. Even worse they are 2-6 ATS at home.
Jacksonville has covered five of their last six.
This means that Jacksonville will need to win in a shootout. Trevor Lawrence has been a slow starter. Brilliant in the comeback win over Dallas and in the thriller last week against the Chargers, he finds his rhythm when he’s able to fire away with nothing to lose. The problem is that he’s putting his team in a position to need the monster comeback.
I doubt that Trevor Lawrence will start out with four picks again but he did start out slowly against KC in their last meeting too. The Jags punted five times and missed a FG on their first five possessions.
Lawrence ended up with some nice numbers (25-40, 250 yds, 2TDs, 0 picks) but they were mostly in garbage time. Andy Reid won't have the same sort of late-game meltdown that the inept Brandon Staley was guilty of last Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs typically get off to a fast start. They rank fourth in first half margin (+4.5), and coming off the bye week, that likely means they will get off to another quick start as Andy Reid typically thrives when having extra time to prepare.
Lawrence had a slow start to the aforementioned Week 10 meeting between these teams, though he generated some good garbage-time numbers. He ended up 29-of-40 for 259 yards and two touchdowns. However, that was before he found a rhythm with Evan Engram and Zay Jones. The Chiefs are also not very good when it comes to defending tight ends, so Engram and Jones figure to have a strong performances.
I’m going to go with a Mini Mega on Kansas City -5.5 in the first half. The spread is too high for me for the full game and another Jags back door cover.
I’ll also go with some player props, they have been profitable for me during the playoffs.
For this game I’ll put a quatloo each on:
Trevor Lawrence over 248.5 yards passing
Christian Kirk over 63.5 yards receiving (109 in the first game)
Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 passing TDs
Investors should note:
The Chiefs weren’t friendly to bettors this season, going 6-11 ATS. Even worse they are 2-6 ATS at home.
Jacksonville has covered five of their last six.

NY Giants +7.5 @ Philadelphia – Every trend says take the Giants. Besides the overall Divisional Round trends, Road teams are 14-4-1 ATS (78%) in divisional rematches in the first two rounds, including 5-1 ATS this round (4-2 SU). New York covered the spread at a historic rate as an underdog this year, going 11-2. That’s the best mark by any team in a single season over the past 20 years.
In addition, the Giants are 4-0 ATS against teams they previously faced (Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia and Minnesota) — bad news for a Philadelphia team that’s failed to cover in four straight games dating back to December 11. And don’t forget, Daniel Jones is 17-5 ATS as a road dog.
Yet, I’m throwing the trends away and taking the Eagles. I just can’t get past how glaring a mismatch this is for Philadelphia. It’s not just one thing — it’s everything.
The Eagles are the best rushing attack in the NFL. They lead the league in both DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and EPA (expected points added), even including the late games without Jalen Hurts and RT Lane Johnson, and they lead the league in explosive runs. The Giants rank last against the run. They’re 31st by EPA and explosive runs allowed.
The other side of the ball favors the Eagles too. The Eagles lead the league in Pass Defense DVOA. They also lead the league in pressure rate with a sack rate. The Giants rank 28th in pass protection. Daniel Jones will find life very different, and much more difficult, this week.
With Hurts and Johnson ready to go, the Eagles shouldn't have any issues moving the chains on the Giants. They scored 48 points against New York in Week 14, and there's no reason to expect this result to be any different. The Giants have a miserable defense that is ranked low in every regard, save for pressure rate. If Johnson is on the field, this pressure rate will be meaningless because Philadelphia's elite offensive line will keep Hurts shielded well.
The Eagles have won in the trenches all season and should own both sides of the trenches here.
The Eagles won that Week 14 matchup by the score of 48-22. And yet, that result isn't even indicative of how lopsided that affair was. Seven of the Giants' 22 points came via a blocked punt, and then the rest of the production occurred in garbage time. The Eagles outgained the Giants, 437-304, and they averaged 1.7 more yards per play.
In addition, the Giants are 4-0 ATS against teams they previously faced (Washington, Dallas, Philadelphia and Minnesota) — bad news for a Philadelphia team that’s failed to cover in four straight games dating back to December 11. And don’t forget, Daniel Jones is 17-5 ATS as a road dog.
Yet, I’m throwing the trends away and taking the Eagles. I just can’t get past how glaring a mismatch this is for Philadelphia. It’s not just one thing — it’s everything.
The Eagles are the best rushing attack in the NFL. They lead the league in both DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) and EPA (expected points added), even including the late games without Jalen Hurts and RT Lane Johnson, and they lead the league in explosive runs. The Giants rank last against the run. They’re 31st by EPA and explosive runs allowed.
The other side of the ball favors the Eagles too. The Eagles lead the league in Pass Defense DVOA. They also lead the league in pressure rate with a sack rate. The Giants rank 28th in pass protection. Daniel Jones will find life very different, and much more difficult, this week.
With Hurts and Johnson ready to go, the Eagles shouldn't have any issues moving the chains on the Giants. They scored 48 points against New York in Week 14, and there's no reason to expect this result to be any different. The Giants have a miserable defense that is ranked low in every regard, save for pressure rate. If Johnson is on the field, this pressure rate will be meaningless because Philadelphia's elite offensive line will keep Hurts shielded well.
The Eagles have won in the trenches all season and should own both sides of the trenches here.
The Eagles won that Week 14 matchup by the score of 48-22. And yet, that result isn't even indicative of how lopsided that affair was. Seven of the Giants' 22 points came via a blocked punt, and then the rest of the production occurred in garbage time. The Eagles outgained the Giants, 437-304, and they averaged 1.7 more yards per play.

Those who watched the Giants upset the Vikings might be wondering how Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley will be stopped, but the Eagles accomplished this feat in Week 14. Jones and Barkley took advantage of the Vikings' miserable defense, Minnesota was a nice team with a lot of weapons, but it also had the NFL’s second-worst defense – it made Daniel Jones look like Steve Young last week.
Navigating through Philadelphia's elite stop unit will be much more challenging. Jones will face tons of pressure from a unit that led the NFL in sacks, while his receivers will be smothered by Philadelphia's dual shutdown cornerbacks. Jones will scramble for some first downs, but the Eagles have better personnel than the Vikings to contain that aspect of the Giants' offense.
The Eagles should run all over the Giants and did so in the regular season. Philadelphia ranks third in Success Rate offensively and the Giants rank 28th defensively. New York is the worst in the league defensively on first downs by DVOA. If the Eagles play like they did most of the season, they might be able to name their score in this game.
The first time these teams played, the Eagles went up 24-7 at the half and led 48-14 until garbage time. In Week 18 (when the Giants rested key starters), it was 16-0 at the half and 22-9 before garbage time. That’s a combined 70-23 in meaningful minutes. These games haven’t been close.
I’m going with the Eagles to cover for a Mega Bet.
Navigating through Philadelphia's elite stop unit will be much more challenging. Jones will face tons of pressure from a unit that led the NFL in sacks, while his receivers will be smothered by Philadelphia's dual shutdown cornerbacks. Jones will scramble for some first downs, but the Eagles have better personnel than the Vikings to contain that aspect of the Giants' offense.
The Eagles should run all over the Giants and did so in the regular season. Philadelphia ranks third in Success Rate offensively and the Giants rank 28th defensively. New York is the worst in the league defensively on first downs by DVOA. If the Eagles play like they did most of the season, they might be able to name their score in this game.
The first time these teams played, the Eagles went up 24-7 at the half and led 48-14 until garbage time. In Week 18 (when the Giants rested key starters), it was 16-0 at the half and 22-9 before garbage time. That’s a combined 70-23 in meaningful minutes. These games haven’t been close.
I’m going with the Eagles to cover for a Mega Bet.