After a couple easy picks and wins on Saturday, Sunday has me flummoxed. I’m not sure of either pick. I’ll give you the overview and let you decise
Cincinnati +5.5 @ Buffalo - It took a month but we are going to get the matchup we were looking for. Emotions will be high for both sides, even more than a typical playoff game.
Cincinnati will have a chip on their shoulder. The defending AFC champions are rarely mentioned in the same breath as the favorites, Buffalo and Kansas City. The doubters were emboldened by the Bengals near loss to Baltimore last week. The Ravens played yet again without Lamar Jackson yet nearly took down Cincy. The game turned this play:
Cincinnati +5.5 @ Buffalo - It took a month but we are going to get the matchup we were looking for. Emotions will be high for both sides, even more than a typical playoff game.
Cincinnati will have a chip on their shoulder. The defending AFC champions are rarely mentioned in the same breath as the favorites, Buffalo and Kansas City. The doubters were emboldened by the Bengals near loss to Baltimore last week. The Ravens played yet again without Lamar Jackson yet nearly took down Cincy. The game turned this play:
Burrow was sacked four times by Baltimore and now is down three OL It was the Fumble in the Jungle - Baltimore fumbled at the Cincinnati one-yard line and DE Sam Hubbard raced 99 yards for the deciding score.
Burrow was sacked four times in the game and the Bengals rushed for just 51 yards. Still, the Bengals offense cannot be taken lightly. Cincinnati finished 7th in the NFL in points per game this season and ranks 7th in the NFL in passing offense. They are excellent in the red zone, ranking 5th in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns.
Defensively, Cincinnati has been one of the more underrated teams in the league. The Bengals are 6th in scoring defense this season and they are giving up two less points per game over the last three games. They are 9th against the run and 23rd against the pass on the season.
The Bengals have been excellent defensively in the red zone too. They are fifth in the league in keeping teams out of the end zone in red zone opportunities. The Bengals have been protective of the football as well, ranking fifth in the league in turnover differential.
But injuries have piled up for Cincy. They will be without three starting offensive linemen this week as Jonah Williams, Alex Cappa and La’el Collins are all out. Cluster injuries can doom a team, and they’re often worse on the line and in the secondary.
That’s another Bengals vulnerability as CB Chidobe Awuzie is already out and CB Eli Apple is struggling some. Josh Allen could put up big passing yards on the depleted Cincy secondary if he gets rolling
The Bills have have offense – they’re about three plays away from being unbeaten – the home crowd will be next-level insane, and the inspiration coming from Hamlin will certainly matter. Last year’s team ripped through New England in the Wild Card round with ease. They knew down to its core that it was one coin flip away from probably winning the Super Bowl.
Burrow was sacked four times in the game and the Bengals rushed for just 51 yards. Still, the Bengals offense cannot be taken lightly. Cincinnati finished 7th in the NFL in points per game this season and ranks 7th in the NFL in passing offense. They are excellent in the red zone, ranking 5th in converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns.
Defensively, Cincinnati has been one of the more underrated teams in the league. The Bengals are 6th in scoring defense this season and they are giving up two less points per game over the last three games. They are 9th against the run and 23rd against the pass on the season.
The Bengals have been excellent defensively in the red zone too. They are fifth in the league in keeping teams out of the end zone in red zone opportunities. The Bengals have been protective of the football as well, ranking fifth in the league in turnover differential.
But injuries have piled up for Cincy. They will be without three starting offensive linemen this week as Jonah Williams, Alex Cappa and La’el Collins are all out. Cluster injuries can doom a team, and they’re often worse on the line and in the secondary.
That’s another Bengals vulnerability as CB Chidobe Awuzie is already out and CB Eli Apple is struggling some. Josh Allen could put up big passing yards on the depleted Cincy secondary if he gets rolling
The Bills have have offense – they’re about three plays away from being unbeaten – the home crowd will be next-level insane, and the inspiration coming from Hamlin will certainly matter. Last year’s team ripped through New England in the Wild Card round with ease. They knew down to its core that it was one coin flip away from probably winning the Super Bowl.
Tyler Boyd had an early TD before the game was stopped. Sounds like an easy Bills win right? Well consider this. The Bills might be the most dangerous team in the AFC whenever they protect the football and play good defense. Unfortunately, they haven’t done that as of late. Buffalo surrendered an average of 24 PPG and turning the ball over a blundering 10 times in their last four games. If that continues you can put a W next to Cincinnati right now.
The Bengals have now won nine straight games, while racking up a lofty average of 28 PPG and turning the ball over just nine times during that stretch - the same amount of turnovers Buffalo has had since Week 16.
When they played in week 17, Joe Burrow looked like he was going to have one of the all-time great performances. He was completely locked in, shredding the Bills' defense on the opening drive, quickly scoring a touchdown on a pass to Tyler Boyd. Burrow then connected with Tee Higgins for a pass on the ensuing drive to move over midfield, and then, well we know what happened after that.
And how important are the missing lineman to the Cincy offense anyway? Jonah Wilson surrendered 13 sacks to opposing pass rushers, which was most in the NFL. Collins had finished 79th of 82 qualifying tackles in pass block grade.
The Bengals have now won nine straight games, while racking up a lofty average of 28 PPG and turning the ball over just nine times during that stretch - the same amount of turnovers Buffalo has had since Week 16.
When they played in week 17, Joe Burrow looked like he was going to have one of the all-time great performances. He was completely locked in, shredding the Bills' defense on the opening drive, quickly scoring a touchdown on a pass to Tyler Boyd. Burrow then connected with Tee Higgins for a pass on the ensuing drive to move over midfield, and then, well we know what happened after that.
And how important are the missing lineman to the Cincy offense anyway? Jonah Wilson surrendered 13 sacks to opposing pass rushers, which was most in the NFL. Collins had finished 79th of 82 qualifying tackles in pass block grade.
The Bengals have not lost by three or more points with Ja'Marr Chase in the lineup Also consider this, Burrow will unlikely be under a tremendous amount of pressure, as Buffalo is the least blitz-heavy team remaining in the playoffs.
Bengals may have lost three offensive linemen in a span of a few weeks, but they welcomed back some injured defensive players recently. That includes defensive ends Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, which will bolster their pass rush. The Bengals' defense struggled for a small stretch when they were sidelined, but they've suffocated opposing quarterbacks recently.
And yet, even with Hendrickson and Hubbard back, the Bills didn't have their entire offensive line intact back then either. Center Mitch Morse was out, while guard Ryan Bates was just returning from injury. The Bills' offensive front is healthier now, so Josh Allen won't face nearly as much pressure as he would have for the rest of that Week 17 battle.
Confused? Stymied? Not sure where to go? Me too.
But, when in doubt take the points. Unlike Saturday's blow outs this game should be very exciting and come down to a FG. No quatloos though. I'll save them for the next round.
Investors should note: The Bills are a mediocre 8-8-1 ATS this year while the Bengals, have been a bettor’s best friend, going an astonishing 12-4 ATS.
Joe Burrow. is 12-3 ATS when Cincinnati is catching 3+ points as an underdog.
The Bengals are 20-5 ATS over their past 25 games and have not lost by more than a field goal in the past 21 games with Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup.
Bengals may have lost three offensive linemen in a span of a few weeks, but they welcomed back some injured defensive players recently. That includes defensive ends Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, which will bolster their pass rush. The Bengals' defense struggled for a small stretch when they were sidelined, but they've suffocated opposing quarterbacks recently.
And yet, even with Hendrickson and Hubbard back, the Bills didn't have their entire offensive line intact back then either. Center Mitch Morse was out, while guard Ryan Bates was just returning from injury. The Bills' offensive front is healthier now, so Josh Allen won't face nearly as much pressure as he would have for the rest of that Week 17 battle.
Confused? Stymied? Not sure where to go? Me too.
But, when in doubt take the points. Unlike Saturday's blow outs this game should be very exciting and come down to a FG. No quatloos though. I'll save them for the next round.
Investors should note: The Bills are a mediocre 8-8-1 ATS this year while the Bengals, have been a bettor’s best friend, going an astonishing 12-4 ATS.
Joe Burrow. is 12-3 ATS when Cincinnati is catching 3+ points as an underdog.
The Bengals are 20-5 ATS over their past 25 games and have not lost by more than a field goal in the past 21 games with Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup.
Dallas can defend the rush and the middle of the field. San Francisco -3.5 vs Dallas – It was the worst pick I made during the playoffs so far. I went against the Cowboys and it cost me first place in both my pools and a Mega Bet. Do I dare bet against them again?
When analyzing the 49ers game, the question you must ask of the defense is if it can defend the middle of the field. It’s how the 49ers attack the opposition, so teams that are weak in this area tend to really struggle against San Francisco. Seattle is one of the worst teams when it comes to defending the middle of the field, which is why the 49ers dominated them three times this year.
The Cowboys, however, are pretty strong in this regard. They are the No. 1 team in the NFL in stopping tight ends, so don’t expect George Kittle to have his typical dominant performances. And the Cowboys also excel at clamping down on running backs, so Christian McCaffrey is going to have a subpar game too.
Dallas is weaker to the pass than the run, which means Brock Purdy will need to come up big once again. He'll have to deliver consistent strikes to Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. It's a good thing for the 49ers that Samuel looked completely healthy last week.
For Dallas, they need to finally forget about Ezekiel Elliott. They are wasted opportunities. Tony Pollard is much better but even he will struggle against the number one defense against the run.
When analyzing the 49ers game, the question you must ask of the defense is if it can defend the middle of the field. It’s how the 49ers attack the opposition, so teams that are weak in this area tend to really struggle against San Francisco. Seattle is one of the worst teams when it comes to defending the middle of the field, which is why the 49ers dominated them three times this year.
The Cowboys, however, are pretty strong in this regard. They are the No. 1 team in the NFL in stopping tight ends, so don’t expect George Kittle to have his typical dominant performances. And the Cowboys also excel at clamping down on running backs, so Christian McCaffrey is going to have a subpar game too.
Dallas is weaker to the pass than the run, which means Brock Purdy will need to come up big once again. He'll have to deliver consistent strikes to Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. It's a good thing for the 49ers that Samuel looked completely healthy last week.
For Dallas, they need to finally forget about Ezekiel Elliott. They are wasted opportunities. Tony Pollard is much better but even he will struggle against the number one defense against the run.
Deebo Samuel looks to be healthy But how good is the Niner defense really? They have one major weakness, which is cornerback. We've seen some elite receivers burn them recently, whether it's D.K. Metcalf last week, or Davante Adams in Week 17. I have a tough time seeing the 49ers putting the clamps on CeeDee Lamb.
The 49ers’ defensive backfield is ripe to get exposed by a capable quarterback. It was less than a month ago that Jarrett Stidham was dicing up San Francisco at a 61% success rate.
The 49ers faced the easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses this season. They faced the easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses this season. The 49ers didn’t play the Eagles, Cowboys, Lions or Vikings in the NFC. Their top expected division rivals, the Rams and Cardinals, had quarterback injuries and terrible offensive seasons.
In the AFC, the 49ers even got to face the Chargers without any of Justin Herbert’s receivers. San Francisco’s defense is clearly good, but perhaps they are a bit overrated and now they’ll see one of the league’s best units.
The 49ers can often make up for their poor cornerback play by swarming the opposing quarterback with their elite pass rush. This won't work as well versus Dallas, however, because the Cowboys have a great offensive line themselves. After the first two drives Monday night, Dak Prescott was kept clean for most of the night, and that should be the case in this game.
Dallas' defense matches up extremely well with San Francisco's offense. The Cowboys are great versus running backs and tight ends, which is how the 49ers love to attack defenses. Purdy has yet to face a defense as good as the Cowboys. Sure, he has a playoff win under his belt but that was against a terrible Seattle defense.
I don’t want to over react to Dallas’ domination of Tampa Bay last week. Nor do I want to underestimate the Niners defense and their offense with Christian McCaffery. But getting over a FG in a toss up game is compelling. I’ll take the Cowboys for a quatloo.
Investors should note: The NFC East went 29-16-1 ATS against non-division opponents, which was the best mark — by far — of any division.
Underdogs that won by double digits in the Wild Card Round have gone 24-14 ATS (63.2%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years.
Meanwhile, over the past 20 years, teams on 10-plus-game winning streaks are 6-8 SU and 1-13 ATS in the Divisional Round or later.
The 49ers’ defensive backfield is ripe to get exposed by a capable quarterback. It was less than a month ago that Jarrett Stidham was dicing up San Francisco at a 61% success rate.
The 49ers faced the easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses this season. They faced the easiest schedule of opposing pass offenses this season. The 49ers didn’t play the Eagles, Cowboys, Lions or Vikings in the NFC. Their top expected division rivals, the Rams and Cardinals, had quarterback injuries and terrible offensive seasons.
In the AFC, the 49ers even got to face the Chargers without any of Justin Herbert’s receivers. San Francisco’s defense is clearly good, but perhaps they are a bit overrated and now they’ll see one of the league’s best units.
The 49ers can often make up for their poor cornerback play by swarming the opposing quarterback with their elite pass rush. This won't work as well versus Dallas, however, because the Cowboys have a great offensive line themselves. After the first two drives Monday night, Dak Prescott was kept clean for most of the night, and that should be the case in this game.
Dallas' defense matches up extremely well with San Francisco's offense. The Cowboys are great versus running backs and tight ends, which is how the 49ers love to attack defenses. Purdy has yet to face a defense as good as the Cowboys. Sure, he has a playoff win under his belt but that was against a terrible Seattle defense.
I don’t want to over react to Dallas’ domination of Tampa Bay last week. Nor do I want to underestimate the Niners defense and their offense with Christian McCaffery. But getting over a FG in a toss up game is compelling. I’ll take the Cowboys for a quatloo.
Investors should note: The NFC East went 29-16-1 ATS against non-division opponents, which was the best mark — by far — of any division.
Underdogs that won by double digits in the Wild Card Round have gone 24-14 ATS (63.2%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years.
Meanwhile, over the past 20 years, teams on 10-plus-game winning streaks are 6-8 SU and 1-13 ATS in the Divisional Round or later.
