
Out goes the old guard. There’s no Tom Brady, no Aaron Rodgers. Even Matthew Stafford at 34 would be considered ancient compared to the young guns playing in the championship games. The oldest is Patrick Mahomes at 27. Joe Burrow is 26, Jalen Hurts is 24 and Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant, a rookie, is 23.
The Bills Mafia might disagree but in the end we have the four best teams in the NFL playing this weekend. No Cinderellas, all four teams deserve to be here.
And for the first time in nearly 50 years, two teams come into the Championship games on a 10+ winning streak, the 49ers (12) and Bengals (10).
Philadelphia -1.5 vs San Francisco – Can a rookie quarterback get to the Super Bowl? History would say no. Brock Purdy will be the fifth rookie quarterback to start a Conference Championship game. The previous four went 0-4 SU. 2009 - Mark Sanchez, 2 TD, 1 INT; 2008 Joe Flacco, 0 TD, 3 INT; 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, 2 TD, 3 INT and 1999 Shaun King, 0 TD, 2 INT, a combined four passing touchdowns and nine interceptions. Not a great track record.
And only one rookie quarterback covered the spread, that was Shaun King as a two touchdown underdog.
Purdy will have to do better than he did against Dallas last week. He was pretty pedestrian going 19-for-29 for 214 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. It took a miracle catch by George Kittle, Tony Pollard going down with a broken leg and Zak Prescott melting down (again) for the Niners to win.
The Bills Mafia might disagree but in the end we have the four best teams in the NFL playing this weekend. No Cinderellas, all four teams deserve to be here.
And for the first time in nearly 50 years, two teams come into the Championship games on a 10+ winning streak, the 49ers (12) and Bengals (10).
Philadelphia -1.5 vs San Francisco – Can a rookie quarterback get to the Super Bowl? History would say no. Brock Purdy will be the fifth rookie quarterback to start a Conference Championship game. The previous four went 0-4 SU. 2009 - Mark Sanchez, 2 TD, 1 INT; 2008 Joe Flacco, 0 TD, 3 INT; 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, 2 TD, 3 INT and 1999 Shaun King, 0 TD, 2 INT, a combined four passing touchdowns and nine interceptions. Not a great track record.
And only one rookie quarterback covered the spread, that was Shaun King as a two touchdown underdog.
Purdy will have to do better than he did against Dallas last week. He was pretty pedestrian going 19-for-29 for 214 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. It took a miracle catch by George Kittle, Tony Pollard going down with a broken leg and Zak Prescott melting down (again) for the Niners to win.

But that really is the Niners game plan. Purdy is surrounded with weapons like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Adding Christian McCaffrey has taken San Francisco to the next level (Keep an eye on Christian McCaffrey’s calf. He was limited late in the game, which is why Elijah Mitchell was getting key carries down the stretch). All Purdy has to do is not screw up, which he hasn’t, get it to his players and count on the defense to win the game.
The Niners defense relies primarily on a terrific pass rush. But the Eagles have an elite offensive line now that Lane Johnson is back from injury. Twenty OL have played over 550 pass blocking snaps allowing one sack or fewer this season, four of those linemen were Eagles. Over the last two seasons, Johnson has played 1,026 pass plays and he hasn’t given up a sack and only one QB hit.
Even when the 49ers' pass rush can get there, Hurts is highly mobile, nullify the pressure. Russell Wilson tortured the Niners for years with his mobility, Hurts can do the same.
The Niners also have the best linebacker trio in the N.F.L. with Azeez Al-Shaair, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. They’re fast enough to keep up with receivers and tough enough to stop running backs in their tracks. The Niners have gone 27 straight games without allowing a rusher to surpass 70 yards on the ground.
The Niners defense relies primarily on a terrific pass rush. But the Eagles have an elite offensive line now that Lane Johnson is back from injury. Twenty OL have played over 550 pass blocking snaps allowing one sack or fewer this season, four of those linemen were Eagles. Over the last two seasons, Johnson has played 1,026 pass plays and he hasn’t given up a sack and only one QB hit.
Even when the 49ers' pass rush can get there, Hurts is highly mobile, nullify the pressure. Russell Wilson tortured the Niners for years with his mobility, Hurts can do the same.
The Niners also have the best linebacker trio in the N.F.L. with Azeez Al-Shaair, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. They’re fast enough to keep up with receivers and tough enough to stop running backs in their tracks. The Niners have gone 27 straight games without allowing a rusher to surpass 70 yards on the ground.

But, as outstanding as the Niner defense is, the chink in the armor is their secondary. Top WRs like Cee Dee Lamb last week (10 receptions, 117 yards) have torched the San Francisco defense. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should have success.
Like the 49ers, the Eagles also have an elite pass rush. Philadelphia finished the season two sacks shy of the N.F.L. record set by the Bears in the 1984 season (72). Meanwhile, San Francisco's blocking, while solid, isn't nearly as good as Philadelphia's. We saw the Cowboys get to Brock Purdy on occasion last week, so the Eagles should be able to do the same.
Unlike the Niners, the Eagles have a solid secondary. Philadelphia's dual shutdown cornerbacks, Darius Slay and James Bradberry, have erased opposing wideouts this year.
The Eagles have gotten much better versus the rush since Jordan Davis returned to the lineup which should keep McCaffery from taking over the game. That said, The Eagles do struggle against tight ends so Kittle should have a nice evening.
Like the 49ers, the Eagles also have an elite pass rush. Philadelphia finished the season two sacks shy of the N.F.L. record set by the Bears in the 1984 season (72). Meanwhile, San Francisco's blocking, while solid, isn't nearly as good as Philadelphia's. We saw the Cowboys get to Brock Purdy on occasion last week, so the Eagles should be able to do the same.
Unlike the Niners, the Eagles have a solid secondary. Philadelphia's dual shutdown cornerbacks, Darius Slay and James Bradberry, have erased opposing wideouts this year.
The Eagles have gotten much better versus the rush since Jordan Davis returned to the lineup which should keep McCaffery from taking over the game. That said, The Eagles do struggle against tight ends so Kittle should have a nice evening.

I’m going to take the Eagles to cover for a Mega Bet. The Eagles are just like the Niners only better. The defense is better and who would you rather have a QB, an MVP candidate or a rookie playing in a very hostile environment in the biggest game of his young career.
Investors should note: Hurts gets off to great starts. He is 12-4 ATS in the first half this season (8-1 1H ATS at home)
This season, the Eagles are 14-2 SU with Lane Johnson and 1-1 SU without him.
More importantly, the Eagles are 14-1 this season when Jalen Hurts starts. Two of their three regular-season losses came with Gardner Minshew starting under center.
San Francisco is the hottest team remaining left in the tournament. Not only are they on a 12-game SU win streak, they are 10-2 ATS in that stretch.
The Eagles have won 13 or more games in the regular season three times in franchise history. They made the Super Bowl the previous two times, back in 2004 and 2017.
Investors should note: Hurts gets off to great starts. He is 12-4 ATS in the first half this season (8-1 1H ATS at home)
This season, the Eagles are 14-2 SU with Lane Johnson and 1-1 SU without him.
More importantly, the Eagles are 14-1 this season when Jalen Hurts starts. Two of their three regular-season losses came with Gardner Minshew starting under center.
San Francisco is the hottest team remaining left in the tournament. Not only are they on a 12-game SU win streak, they are 10-2 ATS in that stretch.
The Eagles have won 13 or more games in the regular season three times in franchise history. They made the Super Bowl the previous two times, back in 2004 and 2017.

Cincinnati -1.5 @ Kansas City – Death, taxes, the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Kansas City will be hosting the AFC championship game for the fifth straight year, an NFL record. Every year Patrick Mahomes has been the starter in Kansas City, the Chiefs have been playing for a trip to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have gone 2-2 so far, and they face another tough test in 2023.
The headline for this game has been Mahome’s ankle but a better question is whether Cincinnati can really beat Kansas City a fourth straight time?
In what is emerging as the best rivalry in football, these two teams met in last years AFC championship game with the Bengals winning 27-24. Earlier this year, in Week 13, Cincinnati won by the same exact score – 27-24, and last year, Cincinnati won during the regular season with the Bengals winning by, guess what, three points - 34-31.
It’s a huge concern, Mahome’s ankle. When Andy Reid announced that Mahomes would play (like he wouldn’t?) the team opened to the media to a light workout. Not since Zapruder, has a film been so dissected. Does it really matter? Even a lesser version of Mahomes is still vastly better than nearly every other quarterback in the league.
The headline for this game has been Mahome’s ankle but a better question is whether Cincinnati can really beat Kansas City a fourth straight time?
In what is emerging as the best rivalry in football, these two teams met in last years AFC championship game with the Bengals winning 27-24. Earlier this year, in Week 13, Cincinnati won by the same exact score – 27-24, and last year, Cincinnati won during the regular season with the Bengals winning by, guess what, three points - 34-31.
It’s a huge concern, Mahome’s ankle. When Andy Reid announced that Mahomes would play (like he wouldn’t?) the team opened to the media to a light workout. Not since Zapruder, has a film been so dissected. Does it really matter? Even a lesser version of Mahomes is still vastly better than nearly every other quarterback in the league.

Except perhaps Joe Burrow. As long as Joe Burrow is at the helm in Cincinnati, the Bengals’ championship window is open. He was superb in last weeks blow out of Buffalo. Burrow was on fire from the start. The Bengals scored on their first two drives, which saw the former No. 1 overall pick go 9-for-9.
Fast starts are the name of the game for Cincinnati. In their last five first quarters, the Black and Orange have outscored their opponents by an amazing 46-0. On top of that, their defense has an even more impressive stat, they have not allowed a single touchdown in the first quarter of their last 12 games.
It's no fluke that Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs. Burrow is the top quarterback in the NFL against the blitz, and the Chiefs really rely on the blitz to generate pressure on the quarterback. Of the NFL teams with top-10 pressure rates in the NFL this year, only the Giants and Cowboys have blitzed more than Kansas City.
Fast starts are the name of the game for Cincinnati. In their last five first quarters, the Black and Orange have outscored their opponents by an amazing 46-0. On top of that, their defense has an even more impressive stat, they have not allowed a single touchdown in the first quarter of their last 12 games.
It's no fluke that Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs. Burrow is the top quarterback in the NFL against the blitz, and the Chiefs really rely on the blitz to generate pressure on the quarterback. Of the NFL teams with top-10 pressure rates in the NFL this year, only the Giants and Cowboys have blitzed more than Kansas City.

If there’s any coach who can adjust an offense in a matter of days, it’s Andy Reid. He’s as creative as they come, so assuming Mahomes’ ankle limits him to being a pocket passer, I suspect the Chiefs will have plenty of wrinkles to move the ball nonetheless.
But Cincinnati DC, Lou Anarumo's is just as clever. He wrote the book on how to limit Mahomes. In last year’s championship game, the Chiefs took a 21-3 lead only to see Mahomes and Co. get shut down the rest of the game. After halftime, Mahomes was just 8-of-18 for 55 yards in the second half with two interceptions and four sacks. It was the worst second half of Mahomes' NFL career.
His defenses have been stout against the run ever since they got D.J. Reader back from injury. Mahomes was really able to lean on Isiah Pacheco's runs last week, but that won't be the case this time. He'll be a sitting duck in the pocket versus a swarming Bengals pass rush that rattled Josh Allen last week.
Conversely, the Chiefs are weak to the run, and they especially struggle versus pass-catching running backs. Back in Week 13, Samaje Perine had a great outing against the Chiefs with Joe Mixon sidelined. He rushed for 106 yards and caught six passes for 49 receiving yards.
But Cincinnati DC, Lou Anarumo's is just as clever. He wrote the book on how to limit Mahomes. In last year’s championship game, the Chiefs took a 21-3 lead only to see Mahomes and Co. get shut down the rest of the game. After halftime, Mahomes was just 8-of-18 for 55 yards in the second half with two interceptions and four sacks. It was the worst second half of Mahomes' NFL career.
His defenses have been stout against the run ever since they got D.J. Reader back from injury. Mahomes was really able to lean on Isiah Pacheco's runs last week, but that won't be the case this time. He'll be a sitting duck in the pocket versus a swarming Bengals pass rush that rattled Josh Allen last week.
Conversely, the Chiefs are weak to the run, and they especially struggle versus pass-catching running backs. Back in Week 13, Samaje Perine had a great outing against the Chiefs with Joe Mixon sidelined. He rushed for 106 yards and caught six passes for 49 receiving yards.

The line has been crazy. It started out at Kansas City -2.5 then during the week as bettors questioned Mahome’s injury it moved to Cincinnati -2.5 and then with Reid saying Mahomes looks better than expected the line moved again to Kansas City -1.0.
Doesn’t matter to me. The trend is your friend as they say. I’ll take Cincinnati to make it four straight over Kansas City and put a Mini Mega on the money line at +100.
Investors should note: Cincinnati has been stellar against the spread this season, going 13-5 and have covered 9 straight, the longest active streak in the NFL.
When the Bengals are underdogs of three or more points, Burrow is 14-2 ATS
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams against the number this season. They’ll enter the AFC Championship Game at 6-12 ATS
Doesn’t matter to me. The trend is your friend as they say. I’ll take Cincinnati to make it four straight over Kansas City and put a Mini Mega on the money line at +100.
Investors should note: Cincinnati has been stellar against the spread this season, going 13-5 and have covered 9 straight, the longest active streak in the NFL.
When the Bengals are underdogs of three or more points, Burrow is 14-2 ATS
The Chiefs, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams against the number this season. They’ll enter the AFC Championship Game at 6-12 ATS