Screw the kids - I should be in Hawaii Hawaii Bowl - San Diego State -6.5 vs Middle Tennessee State – Finally, a bowl game with good weather. So far it’s been all about the bone chilling weather, wind chill and and how wind speed will affect the game. But on Christmas Eve, the game will be played in beautiful 80 degree weather in calm conditions. If we weren’t visiting the kids over the Holidays, I could have probably gotten Mrs. Doofus to join me for the game. Stupid kids.
Both team come in with winning streaks. MTSU won four of their last five while SDSU won five of their last seven to get here.
Middle Tennessee is a pass-happy offense that throws the ball 55.5% of the time. QB Chase Cunningham Chase Cunningham may not be the most prolific passer in the FBS, but when he does drop back, it’s fairly likely that he connects with his intended target. He finished the regular season with 26 completions per game (7th overall) at a 67% completion rate (15th overall)
That’s when he has time to complete his passes.
Both team come in with winning streaks. MTSU won four of their last five while SDSU won five of their last seven to get here.
Middle Tennessee is a pass-happy offense that throws the ball 55.5% of the time. QB Chase Cunningham Chase Cunningham may not be the most prolific passer in the FBS, but when he does drop back, it’s fairly likely that he connects with his intended target. He finished the regular season with 26 completions per game (7th overall) at a 67% completion rate (15th overall)
That’s when he has time to complete his passes.
MTSU loves to pass and Cunningham is efficient The OL sucks in keeping teams out of the backfield (ranking 119th overall). The OL can’t open holes for the run game either as the Blue Raiders average a meager 3.3 YPG (113th)
MTSU got here behind its defense. The run defense has been stellar though the pass defense is a liability. That matches up well against SDSU which is heavily run orientated and calls pass plays as if there were allergic.
San Diego State was able to flip the switch mid season. After starting out 2-3 (needing a miracle late drive against Toledo from being 1-4.) the team switched offensive coordinators, and put former Mississippi State QB – Jalen Mayden took over under center. It all clicked. This isn’t the nasty team of 2021, but it’s solid now.
SDSU’s offense found their QB under Mayden as he is averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt with 10 touchdowns in seven starts. He will be key in this game because the weakness of Middle Tennessee’s defense comes in its secondary. Statistically, MTSU may be a rock against the run, but that’s because everyone spent so much time throwing. It allowed 300 or more passing yards in three of its last four games and over 400 in the tight win over FIU.
MTSU got here behind its defense. The run defense has been stellar though the pass defense is a liability. That matches up well against SDSU which is heavily run orientated and calls pass plays as if there were allergic.
San Diego State was able to flip the switch mid season. After starting out 2-3 (needing a miracle late drive against Toledo from being 1-4.) the team switched offensive coordinators, and put former Mississippi State QB – Jalen Mayden took over under center. It all clicked. This isn’t the nasty team of 2021, but it’s solid now.
SDSU’s offense found their QB under Mayden as he is averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt with 10 touchdowns in seven starts. He will be key in this game because the weakness of Middle Tennessee’s defense comes in its secondary. Statistically, MTSU may be a rock against the run, but that’s because everyone spent so much time throwing. It allowed 300 or more passing yards in three of its last four games and over 400 in the tight win over FIU.
But he will be under tremendous pressure from the Aztec DL To make matters even more complicated for the Blue Raiders defense, Mayden is also a big-time threat on the ground.
The main reason San Diego State won three of its last four games just to reach bowl eligibility is because of its defense. The Aztecs allowed just 5.0 yards per play (13th overall). Over their final nine games of the season, only two teams scored more than 14 points against them: Fresno State and San Jose State.
The Aztecs’ pass rush will be a huge edge in this game. San Diego State owns the 22nd-best pass-rushing grade, and ranks in the top 35 in sack percentage.
Both teams are incredible in red zone defense, San Diego State ranks fourth nationally in red zone defense only to be bested by Middle Tennessee which ranks third.
I’m going to go with SDSU to cover the 6.5 points. When Middle Tennessee loses, it loses big – all five losses were by 15 points or more.
And with those red zone defense and SDSU’s ability to put pressure on Cunningham, I’ll take the under 47.5. Put me down for a quatloo each.
The main reason San Diego State won three of its last four games just to reach bowl eligibility is because of its defense. The Aztecs allowed just 5.0 yards per play (13th overall). Over their final nine games of the season, only two teams scored more than 14 points against them: Fresno State and San Jose State.
The Aztecs’ pass rush will be a huge edge in this game. San Diego State owns the 22nd-best pass-rushing grade, and ranks in the top 35 in sack percentage.
Both teams are incredible in red zone defense, San Diego State ranks fourth nationally in red zone defense only to be bested by Middle Tennessee which ranks third.
I’m going to go with SDSU to cover the 6.5 points. When Middle Tennessee loses, it loses big – all five losses were by 15 points or more.
And with those red zone defense and SDSU’s ability to put pressure on Cunningham, I’ll take the under 47.5. Put me down for a quatloo each.
