Brad Roberts leads the nations #1 rushing attack I'm in a bit of a slump lately. Last night's blow out of South Alabama was about as ugly as it can get. But time for a rally in the Armed Forces Bowl
Armed Forces Bowl - Baylor -4.0 vs Air Force – Air Force was pretty close to a perfect season. All three of their losses were a TD or less (a combined 15 points).
It’s a service academy, of course you know they run the triple option and will be among the leaders in rushing offense. In fact, Air Force was #1 in rushing overall, and by a wide margin. Led by quarterback Haaziq Daniels and RB Brad Roberts, (the MWC Offensive Player of the Year) and behind an outstanding offensive line the Falcons averaged 339 rushing YPG, over 40 YPG ahead of #2 Army.
The Falcons excel against the run and get after opposing quarterbacks with a Top 25 sack rate. They are vulnerable area in the secondary, and can be exploited by potent passing attacks. Fortunately for the Fly Boys that’s not Baylor.
Baylor came into the season as the defending Big 12 champs and with three weeks to go, had a path to the championship game. But the Bears cratered at the end of the season losing three straight to finish a disappointing 6-6.
Baylor’s defense also lost a lot of talent from last year, and it never quite figured out a way to replace those losses, allowing over a touchdown more than it did last year. As a result, the Bears fired DC Ron Roberts and safeties coach Ronnie Wheat after the season.
Armed Forces Bowl - Baylor -4.0 vs Air Force – Air Force was pretty close to a perfect season. All three of their losses were a TD or less (a combined 15 points).
It’s a service academy, of course you know they run the triple option and will be among the leaders in rushing offense. In fact, Air Force was #1 in rushing overall, and by a wide margin. Led by quarterback Haaziq Daniels and RB Brad Roberts, (the MWC Offensive Player of the Year) and behind an outstanding offensive line the Falcons averaged 339 rushing YPG, over 40 YPG ahead of #2 Army.
The Falcons excel against the run and get after opposing quarterbacks with a Top 25 sack rate. They are vulnerable area in the secondary, and can be exploited by potent passing attacks. Fortunately for the Fly Boys that’s not Baylor.
Baylor came into the season as the defending Big 12 champs and with three weeks to go, had a path to the championship game. But the Bears cratered at the end of the season losing three straight to finish a disappointing 6-6.
Baylor’s defense also lost a lot of talent from last year, and it never quite figured out a way to replace those losses, allowing over a touchdown more than it did last year. As a result, the Bears fired DC Ron Roberts and safeties coach Ronnie Wheat after the season.
Blake Shapen hasn't been the same since suffering a head injury vs West Virginia Baylor has a rush-first offense that leans on a three-headed monster of Richard Reese, Craig “Sqwirl” Williams and Qualan Jones in the backfield. All three averaged over 5.0 yards per carry.
Bear QB Blake Shapen had an up-and-down year. By mid season, Baylor was averaging 39.3 PPG but Shapen suffered a head injury in a loss to West Virginia in Week 7. He’s struggled after that, throwing five touchdowns and seven interceptions over the last seven games.
Even if Shapen can regain his mojo, he will be limited by the weather. The forecast calls temperatures in the teens with consistent winds around 20 MPH and gusts over 40.
The Swag Man was telling me that momentum is overrated in bowls. Perhaps, but I think it will be a large factor in this game. I’m not sure how excited Baylor will be to be playing Group of Five team in TCU’s stadium —just one season removed from playing an SEC team in the Sugar Bowl.
You can count on the service academies to come in motivated. Since 2005, they are 20-9 ATS in bowl games.
I’ll put a quatloo on Air Force to cover and another on the money line at +145. If you want to play the over / under I would lean to the under 43.5. Air Force will grind out long drives and the weather will prevent anything through the air.
Bear QB Blake Shapen had an up-and-down year. By mid season, Baylor was averaging 39.3 PPG but Shapen suffered a head injury in a loss to West Virginia in Week 7. He’s struggled after that, throwing five touchdowns and seven interceptions over the last seven games.
Even if Shapen can regain his mojo, he will be limited by the weather. The forecast calls temperatures in the teens with consistent winds around 20 MPH and gusts over 40.
The Swag Man was telling me that momentum is overrated in bowls. Perhaps, but I think it will be a large factor in this game. I’m not sure how excited Baylor will be to be playing Group of Five team in TCU’s stadium —just one season removed from playing an SEC team in the Sugar Bowl.
You can count on the service academies to come in motivated. Since 2005, they are 20-9 ATS in bowl games.
I’ll put a quatloo on Air Force to cover and another on the money line at +145. If you want to play the over / under I would lean to the under 43.5. Air Force will grind out long drives and the weather will prevent anything through the air.
