
Fiesta Bowl – TCU +7.5 vs scUM – It’s scUM so if I were to try to sing their praises, I would get nauseous. I’m already nauseous by the talking heads calling Booger Man a great turnaround coach. I’ll give him back to back playoffs, but turnaround? He was this close to getting fired for not beating State and Ohio State. I took him seven years to win the Big 10.
You know who’s a turnaround coach? TCU’s Sonny Dykes. He got to the CFP in his first year! – not seventh.
You know who sucks in Bowls? scUM and Booger Man. Booger Man won his first Vowl back in 2015 and has now lost five straight. scUM is 3-12 in Bowl games since 2003.
It’s easy to scout scUM. The game plan is simple. Run the ball, keep running, rely on the defense, wait for the dam to break, repeat. That’s been Michigan all year.
The games are close in the first half and then they go off in the second half as they wear down teams. It’s all about moving with long, sustained drives, then a missed tackle by a tired defense and then bam! A huge run, an explosive play.
You know who’s a turnaround coach? TCU’s Sonny Dykes. He got to the CFP in his first year! – not seventh.
You know who sucks in Bowls? scUM and Booger Man. Booger Man won his first Vowl back in 2015 and has now lost five straight. scUM is 3-12 in Bowl games since 2003.
It’s easy to scout scUM. The game plan is simple. Run the ball, keep running, rely on the defense, wait for the dam to break, repeat. That’s been Michigan all year.
The games are close in the first half and then they go off in the second half as they wear down teams. It’s all about moving with long, sustained drives, then a missed tackle by a tired defense and then bam! A huge run, an explosive play.

TCU will counter with a 3-3-5 stack defense, relying on stunts and slants to fill gaps. It’s common in the Big 12 but rare in the Big 10. TCU can sell out to stop the run as they have an excellent pass defense. CBs Josh Newton and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson can man up against Michigan’s receivers on the outside. Three other teams with similar excellent cornerback personnel — Iowa, Illinois, and Penn State — held JJ McCarthy to 155, 208 and 145 yards passing, respectively, with only one score and one interception in those three games.
No doubt, TCU’s ability, through the full 60 minutes, to contain the scUM run game will be key.
TCU wants to make this a track meet. The Frogs have one of the most explosive offenses in football. TCU has similar offensive concepts as Tennessee, with the idea of stretching the field and running deep verticals. That offensive plan is diminished when cornerbacks can jam receivers and play tight man-to-man coverage.
It’s a pick your poison offense. If you load the box, WRs Taye Barbers (18 YPR) and Quentin Johnson (22.1 YPR) will beat you deep If you defend the tackle box lightly have dealt with a trio of flammable rushers. Running backs Emari Demercado and Kendre Miller along with quarterback Max Duggan have combined for 70 rushes over 10 yards.
No doubt, TCU’s ability, through the full 60 minutes, to contain the scUM run game will be key.
TCU wants to make this a track meet. The Frogs have one of the most explosive offenses in football. TCU has similar offensive concepts as Tennessee, with the idea of stretching the field and running deep verticals. That offensive plan is diminished when cornerbacks can jam receivers and play tight man-to-man coverage.
It’s a pick your poison offense. If you load the box, WRs Taye Barbers (18 YPR) and Quentin Johnson (22.1 YPR) will beat you deep If you defend the tackle box lightly have dealt with a trio of flammable rushers. Running backs Emari Demercado and Kendre Miller along with quarterback Max Duggan have combined for 70 rushes over 10 yards.

Statistically, scUM has a top 10 defense but if you look deeper, they racked it up against a pathetic non-conference schedule. They may have finished third in scoring defense allowing only 13.4 PPG, it should be taken with a grain of salt, since the average final ranking of the scoring offenses the Wolverines faced this season was 87.1.
The best way to play this game is the first half under 29.5. Facing a novel defense, scUM will take a few possessions, some poking and prodding, and halftime adjustments for Michigan to fully crack an unfamiliar scheme. It takes some time to wear down opponents. The Wolverines averaged only 14 points in the first half compared to 21.2 in the second frame.
TCU is also a strong second-half team, averaging 18.5 of their 38.8 in the first half. OC Garrett Riley and DC Joe Gillespie are known for their strong second-half adjustments. TCU also won a number of games thanks to big second-half efforts against Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas and Colorado.
Both offenses will come out of the gate feeling out the defense. TCU will be looking to match Michigan’s physicality, keep it close until the break, and create big plays in the second half with adjustments. Put me down for a Mega Bet.
And it’s scUM, of course I’ll take the HypnoToads and the points. Put me in for a quatloo.
The best way to play this game is the first half under 29.5. Facing a novel defense, scUM will take a few possessions, some poking and prodding, and halftime adjustments for Michigan to fully crack an unfamiliar scheme. It takes some time to wear down opponents. The Wolverines averaged only 14 points in the first half compared to 21.2 in the second frame.
TCU is also a strong second-half team, averaging 18.5 of their 38.8 in the first half. OC Garrett Riley and DC Joe Gillespie are known for their strong second-half adjustments. TCU also won a number of games thanks to big second-half efforts against Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas and Colorado.
Both offenses will come out of the gate feeling out the defense. TCU will be looking to match Michigan’s physicality, keep it close until the break, and create big plays in the second half with adjustments. Put me down for a Mega Bet.
And it’s scUM, of course I’ll take the HypnoToads and the points. Put me in for a quatloo.

Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl – Georgia -5.5 vs Ohio State – Kirby’s gang is on a mission to repeat as national champions. It replaced 15 NFL Draft picks and hardly missed a beat. The undefeated Bulldogs played only one game that finished with a margin in single digits (at Missouri). The defense might be a shade worse than last year’s historic unit, but the offense is perhaps a touch better.
Ohio State got a second life by making the playoff field with one loss. The Buckeyes are seeking redemption for their second straight loss to Michigan, for their second straight lost chance at a Big Ten title and for their seven-year national title drought.
It would be unfair to say Ryan Day is on the hot seat in Columbus, but it is fair to say that he has a lot to prove in this game. Day’s Ohio State teams have at times been labeled with the dreaded “s” word — soft. They are getting pushed around in the trenches by more physical teams on both sides of the ball. That’s a bad weakness to have against the college football’s most violent outfit.
Bucknut fans are hoping Ryan Day can replicate his trick from the 2020 playoff, when he was given a month to prepare for Clemson and crafted a game plan that hung 45 points on a flummoxed Brent Venables.
Ohio State got a second life by making the playoff field with one loss. The Buckeyes are seeking redemption for their second straight loss to Michigan, for their second straight lost chance at a Big Ten title and for their seven-year national title drought.
It would be unfair to say Ryan Day is on the hot seat in Columbus, but it is fair to say that he has a lot to prove in this game. Day’s Ohio State teams have at times been labeled with the dreaded “s” word — soft. They are getting pushed around in the trenches by more physical teams on both sides of the ball. That’s a bad weakness to have against the college football’s most violent outfit.
Bucknut fans are hoping Ryan Day can replicate his trick from the 2020 playoff, when he was given a month to prepare for Clemson and crafted a game plan that hung 45 points on a flummoxed Brent Venables.

Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles used a zero blitz concept with the intention of plugging up Michigan’s run game. But with zero blitz considered the riskiest of blitz packages, Ohio State’s secondary was left on an island against multiple explosive passes. The Buckeyes had achieved their mission by halftime, limiting Blake Corum to six yards on two carries and Donovan Edwards to nine yards on just five rushing attempts.
Knowles will stick to his roots of using the zero blitz, expecting Ohio State to execute better tackling which broke down in the second half (S Ronnie Hickman and CB Jyaire Brown both missed crucial tackles against Michigan, while LB Tommy Eichenberg created only one pressure in the game) leading to a blowout and the getting the “s” word planted on their reputation.
Georgia’s offense runs the lowest rate of plays in passing downs of all teams in FBS. Knowles will be tasked with getting Georgia behind the chains, and executing that will fall directly on cornerback Cam Brown and safety Ronnie Hickman in tackling at the point of attack.
Bulldogs offensive coordinator Todd Monken has a war chest of lethal weapons. Georgia remains a run-first team behind the eighth-best run-blocking OL, as Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards have averaged more than five yards per carry on more than 300 carries.
Knowles will stick to his roots of using the zero blitz, expecting Ohio State to execute better tackling which broke down in the second half (S Ronnie Hickman and CB Jyaire Brown both missed crucial tackles against Michigan, while LB Tommy Eichenberg created only one pressure in the game) leading to a blowout and the getting the “s” word planted on their reputation.
Georgia’s offense runs the lowest rate of plays in passing downs of all teams in FBS. Knowles will be tasked with getting Georgia behind the chains, and executing that will fall directly on cornerback Cam Brown and safety Ronnie Hickman in tackling at the point of attack.
Bulldogs offensive coordinator Todd Monken has a war chest of lethal weapons. Georgia remains a run-first team behind the eighth-best run-blocking OL, as Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards have averaged more than five yards per carry on more than 300 carries.

If Ohio State’s defensive scheme remains unchanged, Georgia’s offense is sure to take a page out of Michigan’s book. The Bulldogs will run plenty of counter run plays while looking for TEs Brock Bowers Darnell Washington in one-on-one coverage in an effort to get behind the Buckeyes. Nearly half of Bowers’ targets have come in between the hash marks, putting Ohio State’s inside linebackers on notice.
The question is whether or not Stroud will be able to keep up.
The Bulldogs’ secondary stuffed Tennessee, allowing no separation for receiving targets. Egbuka and Harrison are considered the best route runners in the nation, a plus for Stroud, who is expected to have time in the pocket.
If Ohio State’s offensive line can identify the fourth rusher in the “creeper” 3-4, Stroud will execute at a Heisman level with a clean pocket.
The toughest opponent the Bulldogs have faced this season is enthusiasm. They beat Kentucky by just 10, yet Georgia was in full control throughout the game. Kent State failed to make a bowl this season but stayed way too close throughout the game. Missouri was able to keep it close too.
But when the chips were down and the lights shined the brightest, the Bulldogs blasted Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and LSU.
The lights will be on. I’ll take Georgia to cover.
I’m also taking the over 62.0 OSU will miss some key tackles in the Cover zero, while their WRs will gain some separation and scores.
The question is whether or not Stroud will be able to keep up.
The Bulldogs’ secondary stuffed Tennessee, allowing no separation for receiving targets. Egbuka and Harrison are considered the best route runners in the nation, a plus for Stroud, who is expected to have time in the pocket.
If Ohio State’s offensive line can identify the fourth rusher in the “creeper” 3-4, Stroud will execute at a Heisman level with a clean pocket.
The toughest opponent the Bulldogs have faced this season is enthusiasm. They beat Kentucky by just 10, yet Georgia was in full control throughout the game. Kent State failed to make a bowl this season but stayed way too close throughout the game. Missouri was able to keep it close too.
But when the chips were down and the lights shined the brightest, the Bulldogs blasted Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and LSU.
The lights will be on. I’ll take Georgia to cover.
I’m also taking the over 62.0 OSU will miss some key tackles in the Cover zero, while their WRs will gain some separation and scores.