The game could be decided by Iowa's kicker Drew Stevens Music City Bowl – Iowa -2.5 vs Kentucky - It’s the second straight time Kentucky and Iowa have faced off in a bowl game. They met in the Music City Bowl last year, a 20-17 Kentucky win.
But that’s not the biggest story line – its also the lowest game total ever set by Vegas in college football history (31.5). Even lower than when service academies meet.
And for good reason. Both Iowa and Kentucky have struggled offensively all season and will be throwing freshman quarterbacks into a matchup against one of the best defenses either offense has faced this season.
For Kentucky, QB Will Levis has opted out to prepare for the NFL. His backup Kavosiey Smoke is in the transfer portal. Meaning Destin Wade will start the Music City Bowl at QB and fourth-string running back Jutahn McClain will start behind him.
Kentucky will also be without RB Christopher Rodriguez Jr., and CB Valentine who have declared for the NFL Draft. Valentine, a two-year starter, was the team’s best cornerback. C-Rod led the team in rushing.
But that’s not the biggest story line – its also the lowest game total ever set by Vegas in college football history (31.5). Even lower than when service academies meet.
And for good reason. Both Iowa and Kentucky have struggled offensively all season and will be throwing freshman quarterbacks into a matchup against one of the best defenses either offense has faced this season.
For Kentucky, QB Will Levis has opted out to prepare for the NFL. His backup Kavosiey Smoke is in the transfer portal. Meaning Destin Wade will start the Music City Bowl at QB and fourth-string running back Jutahn McClain will start behind him.
Kentucky will also be without RB Christopher Rodriguez Jr., and CB Valentine who have declared for the NFL Draft. Valentine, a two-year starter, was the team’s best cornerback. C-Rod led the team in rushing.
And punter Tory Taylor Iowa starting QB Spencer Petras is out with and injury, backup QB Alex Padilla entered the transfer portal, so the offense falls to third-stringer Joe Labas.
S Kaevon Merriweather also opted out to prepare for the draft. It’s not all bad news for Iowa, CB Cooper DeJean and TE Sam LaPorta are returning from injuries and will play. Both were first-team All-Big Ten performers in 2022. LaPorta was one of three John Mackey Award finalists.
In a game that seems destined to be extremely low-scoring, taking advantage of every scoring opportunity will be critical in coming away with a win. That means special teams will play a key role, and Iowa will has a significant advantage in that area.
Iowa kicker Drew Stevens is one of the best kickers in the country, making 16 of his 18 field goal attempts this season. Stevens has also not missed an extra point this year, making all 21 of his attempts.
Additionally, punter Tory Taylor ranks 15th in the country averaging 45.1 yards per punt.
And a defensive score would be huge. Now, there is no truth to the rumor that the Iowa defense has outscored the Iowa offense this season. But it is true that the Hawkeyes are second nationally with five defensive touchdowns, three scoop sixes and two pick-sixes.
I’ll take Iowa to cover with a better roster and what will be a revenge game. Taking the over is tempting but I’ll stay away.
S Kaevon Merriweather also opted out to prepare for the draft. It’s not all bad news for Iowa, CB Cooper DeJean and TE Sam LaPorta are returning from injuries and will play. Both were first-team All-Big Ten performers in 2022. LaPorta was one of three John Mackey Award finalists.
In a game that seems destined to be extremely low-scoring, taking advantage of every scoring opportunity will be critical in coming away with a win. That means special teams will play a key role, and Iowa will has a significant advantage in that area.
Iowa kicker Drew Stevens is one of the best kickers in the country, making 16 of his 18 field goal attempts this season. Stevens has also not missed an extra point this year, making all 21 of his attempts.
Additionally, punter Tory Taylor ranks 15th in the country averaging 45.1 yards per punt.
And a defensive score would be huge. Now, there is no truth to the rumor that the Iowa defense has outscored the Iowa offense this season. But it is true that the Hawkeyes are second nationally with five defensive touchdowns, three scoop sixes and two pick-sixes.
I’ll take Iowa to cover with a better roster and what will be a revenge game. Taking the over is tempting but I’ll stay away.
Bryce Young has some unfinished business Sugar Bowl – Alabama -7.0 vs Kansas State - Most teams would view a 10 win season as a success. But for Bama, it’s considered a disaster with two SEC losses and missing the CFP. They didn’t even get to play for the conference crown.
Kansas State also won 10 games, won its conference championship and now it gets a shot to do something massive with a Sugar Bowl win over Bama.
Kansas State is a lunch bucket team. It plays hard nosed defense (the Big 12’s best), doesn’t beat itself, and owns the turnover battle. It’s hardly going to freak out just because it’s playing Alabama.
Normally, this would be a huge let down spot for Bama but they might have something to prove after all. In an era when everyone is transferring or opting out, the Tide got fantastic news when QB Bryce Young and DL Will Anderson decided to play. They are expected to go in the top five picks in April’s NFL draft. Star RB Jahmyr Gibbs will also be playing.
Kansas State also won 10 games, won its conference championship and now it gets a shot to do something massive with a Sugar Bowl win over Bama.
Kansas State is a lunch bucket team. It plays hard nosed defense (the Big 12’s best), doesn’t beat itself, and owns the turnover battle. It’s hardly going to freak out just because it’s playing Alabama.
Normally, this would be a huge let down spot for Bama but they might have something to prove after all. In an era when everyone is transferring or opting out, the Tide got fantastic news when QB Bryce Young and DL Will Anderson decided to play. They are expected to go in the top five picks in April’s NFL draft. Star RB Jahmyr Gibbs will also be playing.
As does Will Anderson Young, the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner, has alluded to unfinished business in the lead-up to the Sugar Bowl. After dealing with a shoulder injury for a large part of the season and missing out on a trip to New York for Heisman festivities this year, Young should be extremely motivated to leave one last mark on his Alabama legacy.
As for Anderson and the rest of the Alabama defense, they have unfinished business after dropping a couple of very tight contests. Their two losses were by a combined four points.
Bama’s issues were they were lacking their usual first round NFL ready WRs and a suspect secondary. That’s not Kansas State’s game. They will pound away with their star RB Deuce Vaughn. He will have some success but Bama was pretty good against the run. They finished 33rd overall with only five teams reaching 100 yards on the ground.
If Bama plays motivated like I expect they will, they should cover the spread. I’ll lay a quatloo on the Tide and another on the over 56.0. Alabama’s 6.6 yards per play will be the second-most of any opponent for Kansas State this season behind only Kansas (6.7). The Wildcats and Jayhawks combined for 74 points in an easy over earlier this season.
As for Anderson and the rest of the Alabama defense, they have unfinished business after dropping a couple of very tight contests. Their two losses were by a combined four points.
Bama’s issues were they were lacking their usual first round NFL ready WRs and a suspect secondary. That’s not Kansas State’s game. They will pound away with their star RB Deuce Vaughn. He will have some success but Bama was pretty good against the run. They finished 33rd overall with only five teams reaching 100 yards on the ground.
If Bama plays motivated like I expect they will, they should cover the spread. I’ll lay a quatloo on the Tide and another on the over 56.0. Alabama’s 6.6 yards per play will be the second-most of any opponent for Kansas State this season behind only Kansas (6.7). The Wildcats and Jayhawks combined for 74 points in an easy over earlier this season.
