Week four is the first week that conference play begins in earnest. Last week there were a full 20 games against Div 1AA teams. This week there are 9 with only one non conference game of any interest.
Notre Dame +6.5 vs Wisconsin (Soldier Field) - These two haven’t met since Pete was the Big Man in Kindergarten.
Wisconsin let go, now Notre Dame QB Jack Coan, at the end of last year, sticking with Graham Mertz. Mertz was great for a couple games but now is a liability. He’s awful when pressured and prone to turning it over. Wisconsin loves to run and is doing a great job but now needs to run to avoid Mertz screwing things up.
Coan is doing a much better job with 8 TDs versus 2 picks and will have the motivation in this one. That said, ND has been pretty disappointing this year. They survived a bad Florida State, barely escaped a MAC team but showed some improvement in beating a decent Purdue squad.
Wisconsin’s defense will rule they day but the spread is too big. I’ll take the Domers but follow the Joe rule, no quatloos.
The other big game this week are:
Notre Dame +6.5 vs Wisconsin (Soldier Field) - These two haven’t met since Pete was the Big Man in Kindergarten.
Wisconsin let go, now Notre Dame QB Jack Coan, at the end of last year, sticking with Graham Mertz. Mertz was great for a couple games but now is a liability. He’s awful when pressured and prone to turning it over. Wisconsin loves to run and is doing a great job but now needs to run to avoid Mertz screwing things up.
Coan is doing a much better job with 8 TDs versus 2 picks and will have the motivation in this one. That said, ND has been pretty disappointing this year. They survived a bad Florida State, barely escaped a MAC team but showed some improvement in beating a decent Purdue squad.
Wisconsin’s defense will rule they day but the spread is too big. I’ll take the Domers but follow the Joe rule, no quatloos.
The other big game this week are:
Arkansas +5.5 @ Texas A&M – It’s #16 and 3-0 Arkansas visiting College Station to face off against #7 and 3-0 Texas A&M
Yeah, about that Aggie 3-0. It’s been against New Mexico, Colorado and Rice. A few cupcakes short of filling the aisle at Krogers. Arkansas has beaten then #15 Texas, Georgia Southern and Rice.
This one is going to be a dog fight in the trenches. Despite having most rushing attempts against them so far this season, A&M has only allowed 2TDs. But Arkansas is far better running than anything A&M has seen so far.
The Razorback have no real downfield passing threat. A&M did, but are now their best WR Ainas Smith is out.
Defenses as going to rule. I’ll take the under as part of a parlay. I like the Hawgs too with the points but no quatloos.
Yeah, about that Aggie 3-0. It’s been against New Mexico, Colorado and Rice. A few cupcakes short of filling the aisle at Krogers. Arkansas has beaten then #15 Texas, Georgia Southern and Rice.
This one is going to be a dog fight in the trenches. Despite having most rushing attempts against them so far this season, A&M has only allowed 2TDs. But Arkansas is far better running than anything A&M has seen so far.
The Razorback have no real downfield passing threat. A&M did, but are now their best WR Ainas Smith is out.
Defenses as going to rule. I’ll take the under as part of a parlay. I like the Hawgs too with the points but no quatloos.
From an sports investing perspective I like:
I’ve been having some success with Super Safe Parlays. This weeks is (all money line bets – no spread)
Florida over Tennessee
Maryland over Kent St
UL Lafayette over Georgia Southern
Buffalo over Old Dominion
BYU over South Florida
Troy over UL Monroe
Payoff: -111 (bet $111 to win $100)
Some other parlays:
Mizzou -2.0 over Boston College
– Mizzou will shut down BC’s struggling backup QB
Louisville -1.5 @ Florida State
– FSU is terrible. Malik Cunningham will run wild.
Payoff: +249
I’ll also go with an under parlay:
Arkansas @ Texas A&M under 47.0 - two good defenses
Georgia @ Vanderbilt under 53.5 - Will Vandy even score?
Payoff: +272
Mizzou -2.0 over Boston College
– Mizzou will shut down BC’s struggling backup QB
Louisville -1.5 @ Florida State
– FSU is terrible. Malik Cunningham will run wild.
Payoff: +249
I’ll also go with an under parlay:
Arkansas @ Texas A&M under 47.0 - two good defenses
Georgia @ Vanderbilt under 53.5 - Will Vandy even score?
Payoff: +272
Another interesting parlay – I’ll go a little lighter on this one:
Boise State ML @ Utah State
– Broncos rebound after a tough loss to Oklahoma St
Army ML over Miami (OH)
– Miami (OH) has one win - over Long Island. Cadets roll
West Virginia +17.0 @ Oklahoma
– Sooners not your Daddy’s Sooners. Neers keep it close
Kansas State +5.5 @ Oklahoma State
– Similar teams with good defenses. KSU has covered 8 of last 10 vs OSU
Payoff: +515
I might hedge with Utah State covering though. That pick is a bit worrisome
Boise State ML @ Utah State
– Broncos rebound after a tough loss to Oklahoma St
Army ML over Miami (OH)
– Miami (OH) has one win - over Long Island. Cadets roll
West Virginia +17.0 @ Oklahoma
– Sooners not your Daddy’s Sooners. Neers keep it close
Kansas State +5.5 @ Oklahoma State
– Similar teams with good defenses. KSU has covered 8 of last 10 vs OSU
Payoff: +515
I might hedge with Utah State covering though. That pick is a bit worrisome
For the NFL I’m going with a safe parlay too (all money line)
Betting against the worst teams in the league along with a rebound by KC
Baltimore over Detroit
Arizona over Jacksonville
Denver over NY Jets
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Payoff: +138
The Sheriff likes
Cal (+7.5) @ Washington - Both teams performed miserably in their nonconference slate, but one of these teams will be 1-0 in the PAC-12 after this game.
Purdue (-11) vs Illinois - The Boilermakers bounce back after a tough loss against the Irish and pound the Illini.
Georgia Tech (+13.5) vs North Carolina - If Tech plays the way it did last week against Clemson, not only do they cover, they will win this game outright.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2021 Week 4 Bettors Guide
Betting against the worst teams in the league along with a rebound by KC
Baltimore over Detroit
Arizona over Jacksonville
Denver over NY Jets
Kansas City over LA Chargers
Payoff: +138
The Sheriff likes
Cal (+7.5) @ Washington - Both teams performed miserably in their nonconference slate, but one of these teams will be 1-0 in the PAC-12 after this game.
Purdue (-11) vs Illinois - The Boilermakers bounce back after a tough loss against the Irish and pound the Illini.
Georgia Tech (+13.5) vs North Carolina - If Tech plays the way it did last week against Clemson, not only do they cover, they will win this game outright.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2021 Week 4 Bettors Guide
bettors_guide_2021_week_4.xlsx |
Remember, the 2021 GO JUMBO trip is Nov 13 at the Westgate SuperBook
And don't forget your drink coupons
And don't forget your drink coupons