
I’m 7-3 so far in the playoffs. With three games left in the NFL, two Conference Championship games and the Super Bowl, I’m guaranteed a winning NFL playoffs.
In the first round all four favorites won. Last week, as expected, it reversed with the underdogs going 3-1. It would have been 4-0 for the dogs but a bad beat by Kansas City over Buffalo. The Bills were getting 3.5 as the teams entered OT (Don’t get me going on Buffalo not squibbing the kick with 13 seconds left). If the game is decided by a FG either way I win but the Chiefs won the toss and get a TD to win by six. (Don’t get me going on the NFL OT rules either).
It cost me a prop bet but what a phenomenal weekend of football. All four games were decided on the final play! Here’s hoping this week is just as exciting.
So, will the reverse rhythm continue with the favorites covering this week or will the underdogs keep it going? Here’s what I have:
In the first round all four favorites won. Last week, as expected, it reversed with the underdogs going 3-1. It would have been 4-0 for the dogs but a bad beat by Kansas City over Buffalo. The Bills were getting 3.5 as the teams entered OT (Don’t get me going on Buffalo not squibbing the kick with 13 seconds left). If the game is decided by a FG either way I win but the Chiefs won the toss and get a TD to win by six. (Don’t get me going on the NFL OT rules either).
It cost me a prop bet but what a phenomenal weekend of football. All four games were decided on the final play! Here’s hoping this week is just as exciting.
So, will the reverse rhythm continue with the favorites covering this week or will the underdogs keep it going? Here’s what I have:

Cincinnati +7.0 @ Kansas City – 25 points in the last two minutes! It was an all timer of the game. And it elevated Mahomes and the Chiefs to even loftier heights. The public is pounding the Chiefs to make it three Super Bowl in a row and succeed the Patriots as the next dynasty.
But the game was an outlier. Teams have begun to figure out how to limit Mahomes by setting 2 safeties deep the force Mahomes to be patient and work his way down the field.
Early in the season, Mahomes struggled against this strategy as he threw pick after pick. The Chiefs started out 3-4. He then settled down, took what the defenses gave him as they went 9-1 to finish out the season. The lone loss? 34-31 to the Bengals.
The Bengals can match the KC talent with Burrow, Ja’marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Last week Kansas City blanketed Stefon Diggs only to have Gabriel Davis (who?) go foo for 291 yards and 4 TDs. If they focus on Rookie of the year candidate Chase, either Higgins or Boyd are capable of Davis type numbers.
But the game was an outlier. Teams have begun to figure out how to limit Mahomes by setting 2 safeties deep the force Mahomes to be patient and work his way down the field.
Early in the season, Mahomes struggled against this strategy as he threw pick after pick. The Chiefs started out 3-4. He then settled down, took what the defenses gave him as they went 9-1 to finish out the season. The lone loss? 34-31 to the Bengals.
The Bengals can match the KC talent with Burrow, Ja’marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. Last week Kansas City blanketed Stefon Diggs only to have Gabriel Davis (who?) go foo for 291 yards and 4 TDs. If they focus on Rookie of the year candidate Chase, either Higgins or Boyd are capable of Davis type numbers.

If he can get the ball to them that is. Burrows was sacked a playoff record nine times last week. KC will try to exploit the terrible Bengal OL. Too bad they were 29th this year in sacks.
For all the fireworks in the passing game these teams can put together, it’s the running game that will likely decide the contest, The best defense against Mahomes is to keep him on the sidelines. The Bengals are going to pound Joe Mixon all day long to keep this game close and then have the Evan McPherson decide the game. McPherson has been lights out during the playoffs, scoring 27 of the Bengals 45 points.
It’s a revenge game for the Chiefs at home but the spread is too high. I’ll take Cincinnati and the points as they use Mixon to keep the game close. Make it a Mini Mega.
For all the fireworks in the passing game these teams can put together, it’s the running game that will likely decide the contest, The best defense against Mahomes is to keep him on the sidelines. The Bengals are going to pound Joe Mixon all day long to keep this game close and then have the Evan McPherson decide the game. McPherson has been lights out during the playoffs, scoring 27 of the Bengals 45 points.
It’s a revenge game for the Chiefs at home but the spread is too high. I’ll take Cincinnati and the points as they use Mixon to keep the game close. Make it a Mini Mega.

LA Rams -3.5 @ San Francisco – Is there a hotter team in the playoffs than the Rams and Stafford? They dominated the Cardinals in week 1 34-11 and then jumped to a 27-3 over the defending champs Tampa Bay last week before the Bucs came storming back. Stafford is shredding secondaries with a 131.8 passer rating, 4 TDs and no picks in the playoffs. Cooper Kupp has been amazing all season and now Stafford is getting the ball to OBJ too.
However, Kyle Shanahan has been kryptonite to Sean McVay’ and the Rams. The Niners is 2-0 against the LA this year, making it six wins in a ro. The Niners are able to attack the weakness of the Rams defense, the middle of the field with Kelce, Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell. Attacking the middle negates Rams star DB Jalen Ramsey while the running game negates the stellar Rams DL. The plan consistently works.
The Rams will try to counter by getting up early and forcing the Niners to rely on Garoppolo to win the game. San Francisco has so little faith in Garoppolo that in a crucial 3rd and 7 in the final drive against Green Bay, they handed it off to Deebo. He got the first. Lost in the Niners playoff run is that Garoppolo has thrown picks in four straight games including two against the Rams in week 18.
However, Kyle Shanahan has been kryptonite to Sean McVay’ and the Rams. The Niners is 2-0 against the LA this year, making it six wins in a ro. The Niners are able to attack the weakness of the Rams defense, the middle of the field with Kelce, Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell. Attacking the middle negates Rams star DB Jalen Ramsey while the running game negates the stellar Rams DL. The plan consistently works.
The Rams will try to counter by getting up early and forcing the Niners to rely on Garoppolo to win the game. San Francisco has so little faith in Garoppolo that in a crucial 3rd and 7 in the final drive against Green Bay, they handed it off to Deebo. He got the first. Lost in the Niners playoff run is that Garoppolo has thrown picks in four straight games including two against the Rams in week 18.

I’m really torn in this game. The Niners defense just stoned Rodgers and Green Bay and should be able to limit LA. And San Francisco has proven they can move the ball on the Rams. Do I go with Niners and the hook or do I trust McVay to finally solve the Niners riddle?
Then again, LA has been red hot and if it weren’t for three late turnovers, would have blown out a Bucs defense as good as San Frans. Sometimes it just comes down to angle and that is injuries, San Francisco star LT Trent Williams hasn’t practiced all week and is a game time decision. Even if he plays, he will be hobbled giving Aaron Donald the edge he needs. Deebo Samuel was knocked out the game twice too so he may not be 100%.
I’ll go with the Rams looking for years of revenge, at home and a chance to go to the Super Bowl to cover. Just a quatloo though.
Then again, LA has been red hot and if it weren’t for three late turnovers, would have blown out a Bucs defense as good as San Frans. Sometimes it just comes down to angle and that is injuries, San Francisco star LT Trent Williams hasn’t practiced all week and is a game time decision. Even if he plays, he will be hobbled giving Aaron Donald the edge he needs. Deebo Samuel was knocked out the game twice too so he may not be 100%.
I’ll go with the Rams looking for years of revenge, at home and a chance to go to the Super Bowl to cover. Just a quatloo though.