UPDATE: The Big Flippy made its picks
After much analysis and careful consideration, the Big Flippy is going with:
Texas +10.5 vs Oklahoma
Texas A&M +17.0 vs Alabama
Penn State -3.5 @ Iowa
LSU -13.0 vs Florida
Miami (FL) -2.0 vs Virginia
Chiefs -5.5 vs Houston
Missouri -12.5 vs Ole Miss
J E T S Jets Jets Jets. +8.5 vs Dallas
And the hits keep on coming. Earlier this week backup RB LaDarius Jefferson decided to enter the transfer portal.
I don’t know about you but when I hear the term Transfer Portal I can’t help but think of this
After much analysis and careful consideration, the Big Flippy is going with:
Texas +10.5 vs Oklahoma
Texas A&M +17.0 vs Alabama
Penn State -3.5 @ Iowa
LSU -13.0 vs Florida
Miami (FL) -2.0 vs Virginia
Chiefs -5.5 vs Houston
Missouri -12.5 vs Ole Miss
J E T S Jets Jets Jets. +8.5 vs Dallas
And the hits keep on coming. Earlier this week backup RB LaDarius Jefferson decided to enter the transfer portal.
I don’t know about you but when I hear the term Transfer Portal I can’t help but think of this
Enter the portal at your own risk players.
Jefferson’s decision was in large part due to the emergence/explosion of Elijah Cummings onto the scene. He’s shown vision, patience and ability to hit the hole that’s been missing since early LJ Scott and Le’Veon.
We are pretty thin at the RB position with just a bunch of freshman. I asked Woz if he had an eligibility left. He said he is using up his 44th medical redshirt this year but should be ready to go next year. We're going to need him even with that gimpy knee of his.
I was watching the SMU Tulsa game last week and a play by the Mustangs reminded me of some classic Hole Football
Jefferson’s decision was in large part due to the emergence/explosion of Elijah Cummings onto the scene. He’s shown vision, patience and ability to hit the hole that’s been missing since early LJ Scott and Le’Veon.
We are pretty thin at the RB position with just a bunch of freshman. I asked Woz if he had an eligibility left. He said he is using up his 44th medical redshirt this year but should be ready to go next year. We're going to need him even with that gimpy knee of his.
I was watching the SMU Tulsa game last week and a play by the Mustangs reminded me of some classic Hole Football
That was Berj and Chuck on the return. They’re still pointing fingers. I blame Pete. He was special teams coach because he's special.
Four games featuring ranked teams this week:
Texas +10.5 vs Oklahoma – Oklahoma has been favored in the Red River Shootout every year since 2010 yet, typical of a rivalry game, they have split the last six games with three wins each.
OU’s hasn’t missed a beat with the switch from Kyler Murray to Jalen Hurts. He’s completing 70% of his passes with 14 TDs and only 2 picks.
The defense is much improved. Last year, if the Sooners had an empty possession they were in trouble. In last year’s game, Texas scored on eight of its 12 possessions in the game, including six touchdowns.
Texas’ Sam Ehlinger can keep pace with Hurts. He has 17 TDs with only 2 picks – against better competition. Oklahoma has played a whole bunch of nothing so far.
It’s a rivalry game. I’ll take the points (and the hook) for a Mini Mega. The Sheriff agrees.
Investors Note: Texas has covered last six regular season meetings. Oklahoma is 4-9 ATS on neutral sites. Texas is 7-2 ATS on neutral sites.
Four games featuring ranked teams this week:
Texas +10.5 vs Oklahoma – Oklahoma has been favored in the Red River Shootout every year since 2010 yet, typical of a rivalry game, they have split the last six games with three wins each.
OU’s hasn’t missed a beat with the switch from Kyler Murray to Jalen Hurts. He’s completing 70% of his passes with 14 TDs and only 2 picks.
The defense is much improved. Last year, if the Sooners had an empty possession they were in trouble. In last year’s game, Texas scored on eight of its 12 possessions in the game, including six touchdowns.
Texas’ Sam Ehlinger can keep pace with Hurts. He has 17 TDs with only 2 picks – against better competition. Oklahoma has played a whole bunch of nothing so far.
It’s a rivalry game. I’ll take the points (and the hook) for a Mini Mega. The Sheriff agrees.
Investors Note: Texas has covered last six regular season meetings. Oklahoma is 4-9 ATS on neutral sites. Texas is 7-2 ATS on neutral sites.
Alabama -17.0 Texas A&M – Bama is a juggernaut. They have put up at least 41 points every game, averaging 51.8 per game. Tua Tagovailoa is the likely leader for the Heisman at this point with 23 TDs and no picks.
A&M will be rested, coming off a bye. They strategy will be to try to slow down the game and muck things up. It worked for awhile against Auburn and Clemson.
But then Tua will hit one of his NFL receivers for a score. A&M and Kellen Mond won’t be able to keep up.
I’ll take the Tide and give the points. No quatloos though. Bama is a little dinged up on the defense.
Investors Note: A&M is 7-19 ATS after a bye. But Jimbo is 13-5 ATS.
A&M will be rested, coming off a bye. They strategy will be to try to slow down the game and muck things up. It worked for awhile against Auburn and Clemson.
But then Tua will hit one of his NFL receivers for a score. A&M and Kellen Mond won’t be able to keep up.
I’ll take the Tide and give the points. No quatloos though. Bama is a little dinged up on the defense.
Investors Note: A&M is 7-19 ATS after a bye. But Jimbo is 13-5 ATS.
Iowa +3.5 vs Penn State – That stunk Iowa. Against an overrated scUM team, Nate Stanley went 23-42 with three picks. Every time the Hawkeyes would get to midfield they would wither sputter and punt or throw a pick.
Now he has to deal with the nation’s #1 defense in sacks and TFL. The schedule has been pretty soft, but no one has scored 14 points yet against the Nits.
The PSU offense is still trying to find its way. Pitt was able to hold Penn State to 17 points. Iowa’s defense is every bit as good as Pitt’s.
This is going to be a low scoring slugfest. I’ll take a battle tested Iowa at home getting the points for a quatloo.
Investors Note: Iowa is on a 14-5-1 ATS win streak.
Now he has to deal with the nation’s #1 defense in sacks and TFL. The schedule has been pretty soft, but no one has scored 14 points yet against the Nits.
The PSU offense is still trying to find its way. Pitt was able to hold Penn State to 17 points. Iowa’s defense is every bit as good as Pitt’s.
This is going to be a low scoring slugfest. I’ll take a battle tested Iowa at home getting the points for a quatloo.
Investors Note: Iowa is on a 14-5-1 ATS win streak.
Florida +13.0 @ LSU – OK Florida, do that again. Against a streaking Auburn, the Gators hamstrung Bo Nix to 11-27, 145 yards, 1 TD and 3 picks. Everyone knew the defense was good, not that good. Can they do it again? On the road?
LSU’s Joe Burrow is bombing away. All his top eight trgets are averaging 13 YPC. He’s 2nd in passing yards and TD passes. LSU’s 273 points through the first five games are the most in SEC history.
The pressure is all on LSU. Florida is playing with house money after beating Auburn last week. Burrow has yet to face a real defense yet (Texas doesn’t qualify). The Gators lead the nation in takeaways with 19 including 12 picks.
I’ll take the visitors and the points for a Mega Bet.
Investors Note: Dan Mullen loves being an underdog. He's 17-6 ATS when catching points. LSU is 5-8 ATS as a home fave.
I'll go with another couple Mega Bets with:
LSU’s Joe Burrow is bombing away. All his top eight trgets are averaging 13 YPC. He’s 2nd in passing yards and TD passes. LSU’s 273 points through the first five games are the most in SEC history.
The pressure is all on LSU. Florida is playing with house money after beating Auburn last week. Burrow has yet to face a real defense yet (Texas doesn’t qualify). The Gators lead the nation in takeaways with 19 including 12 picks.
I’ll take the visitors and the points for a Mega Bet.
Investors Note: Dan Mullen loves being an underdog. He's 17-6 ATS when catching points. LSU is 5-8 ATS as a home fave.
I'll go with another couple Mega Bets with:
Virginia +2.0 @ Miami (FL) – Is N”Kosi Perry the answer? Last week he stepped in for the floundering Jarren Williams and rallied the Canes from 28 down to a close 35-42 loss to Va Tech.
The Canes have struggled all year with a far too close win over Central Michigan and losses to North Carolina and Florida. The main reason, besides QB play, has been an OL that is dead last in allowing sacks. Virginia’s DL is 2nd in sacks and is coming off a 4 sack game against the Domers.
Miami (FL) is coming off a short week while Virginia has had a bye week to stew over the near miss against Notre Dame.
Is it really this easy? A ranked team getting points against an underperforming team. Joe Public thinks so, 64% of the bets are on the Cav’s. But betting on public dogs has long been a money burner.
I’ll take the risk. Virginia was expected to be the second best team in the ACC since before the season began and nothing has changed that view. There will be sacks galore, but UVA will get their points. Miami has let up at least 24 points against every Power 5 team they have faced.
Investors Note: the underdog is 13-2 ATS in this game.
The Canes have struggled all year with a far too close win over Central Michigan and losses to North Carolina and Florida. The main reason, besides QB play, has been an OL that is dead last in allowing sacks. Virginia’s DL is 2nd in sacks and is coming off a 4 sack game against the Domers.
Miami (FL) is coming off a short week while Virginia has had a bye week to stew over the near miss against Notre Dame.
Is it really this easy? A ranked team getting points against an underperforming team. Joe Public thinks so, 64% of the bets are on the Cav’s. But betting on public dogs has long been a money burner.
I’ll take the risk. Virginia was expected to be the second best team in the ACC since before the season began and nothing has changed that view. There will be sacks galore, but UVA will get their points. Miami has let up at least 24 points against every Power 5 team they have faced.
Investors Note: the underdog is 13-2 ATS in this game.
Houston +5.5 @ Kansas City – Injuries are catching up to the high flying Chiefs attack. Injuries to the OL have left Mahomes exposed. He then injured his ankle and KC fell flat on its face, losing to Indianpolis 19-13.
Indy’s pass rush is good. Houston’s is better. JJ Watts and Whitney Mercilus will have Mahome under siege all day and now he lacks the mobility to escape.
DeShaun Watson has struggled against good defenses but has torched bad one. Kansas City is more in the latter category.
Until the Chiefs OL gets its starter back and Mahomes is fully healed – fade KC.
I'll put down a few more Mini Megas on:
Indy’s pass rush is good. Houston’s is better. JJ Watts and Whitney Mercilus will have Mahome under siege all day and now he lacks the mobility to escape.
DeShaun Watson has struggled against good defenses but has torched bad one. Kansas City is more in the latter category.
Until the Chiefs OL gets its starter back and Mahomes is fully healed – fade KC.
I'll put down a few more Mini Megas on:
Missouri -12.5 vs Ole Miss – With all the focus on Georgia and Florida, Mizzou has quietly gone 4-1. The defense has been a rock allowing just 31 points over the last four games. The pass defense is fantastic, 2nd behind Wisconsin.
QB Kelly Bryant is back after tweaking a knee last week. He’ll torch a dicey Ole Miss secondary.
Jets +8.5 vs Dallas – Sam Darnold is back from mono. He may not be fully recovered but he is still light years better than Luke Falk. The biggest beneficiary will be Le’Veon since there’s a viable passing attack now. Green Bay’s Aaron Jones had a great day versus Dallas. Le”Veon is better than Jones.
I've been testing a metric. It went 7-2 ATS last week
QB Kelly Bryant is back after tweaking a knee last week. He’ll torch a dicey Ole Miss secondary.
Jets +8.5 vs Dallas – Sam Darnold is back from mono. He may not be fully recovered but he is still light years better than Luke Falk. The biggest beneficiary will be Le’Veon since there’s a viable passing attack now. Green Bay’s Aaron Jones had a great day versus Dallas. Le”Veon is better than Jones.
I've been testing a metric. It went 7-2 ATS last week
Here's this week's metric picks:
Georgia Tech +17.0 @ Duke
Middle Tenn State +10.0 @ Florida Atlantic
UNC Charlotte +5.0 @ Florida InternationalNorth Texas +3.0 @ Southern Miss
Central Michigan -10.0 vs New Mexico State
Washington State +1.5 @ Arizona State - The Sheriff disagrees
Georgia State +5.0 @ Coastal Carolina
Can't say I'm enamored with the metric's picks but I will lay a quatloo on the Chips.
The Sheriff went 2-1 last week. Here's his picks for this week:
Georgia Tech +17.0 @ Duke
Middle Tenn State +10.0 @ Florida Atlantic
UNC Charlotte +5.0 @ Florida InternationalNorth Texas +3.0 @ Southern Miss
Central Michigan -10.0 vs New Mexico State
Washington State +1.5 @ Arizona State - The Sheriff disagrees
Georgia State +5.0 @ Coastal Carolina
Can't say I'm enamored with the metric's picks but I will lay a quatloo on the Chips.
The Sheriff went 2-1 last week. Here's his picks for this week:
Arizona (+6.5) vs Washington - The Huskies have been historically bad in the Desert, whereas Khalil Tate threw for 404 yards and 3 TDs against Colorado last week, looking very much like the Tate of two years ago. After losing its opener against Hawaii, the Wildcats have won four straight and are in sole possession of first place in the PAC-12 South. Arizona will win this game outright.
Arizona State (-1) vs Wazzu - Herm Edwards has got the Sun Devils playing well with a stout defense and a good running game behind Eno Benjamin. True freshman QB Jayden Daniels has been improving each week and looks like a future star in the PAC-12. The Cougs have lost two in a row, just fired their DC, and have been called out by Mike Leach as “fat, dumb, happy and entitled.” Both Arizona schools will win in the Desert this week.
Texas (+11) vs Oklahoma - The Red River Shootout is always close, and this should be the game of the week. This number is too high for a rivalry game so the Sheriff will take the points.
And for all this week's games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2019 Week 7 Bettors Guide
Arizona State (-1) vs Wazzu - Herm Edwards has got the Sun Devils playing well with a stout defense and a good running game behind Eno Benjamin. True freshman QB Jayden Daniels has been improving each week and looks like a future star in the PAC-12. The Cougs have lost two in a row, just fired their DC, and have been called out by Mike Leach as “fat, dumb, happy and entitled.” Both Arizona schools will win in the Desert this week.
Texas (+11) vs Oklahoma - The Red River Shootout is always close, and this should be the game of the week. This number is too high for a rivalry game so the Sheriff will take the points.
And for all this week's games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the 2019 Week 7 Bettors Guide
week_7_oct_12_2019.xlsx |
Remember the 2019 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 26th at the Westgate SuperBook
And don't forget your drink coupons!
And don't forget your drink coupons!