The Bowl season picks are going, let’s just say, average at best. At one point the Big Flippy, Mrs Flippy and Fuss were all in the running. But some great games went the wrong way for the gang. Oregon’s upset of Wiscy was the real killer. Tennessee’s fantastic finish over Indiana also did a few of us in.
The Sax Man took Wake to beat State so he is out of the will.
So now we are left to compete against each other. Looks like Fuss is the leader going into the stretch.
The NFL playoffs start today but let’s start with a good bowl game today:
The Sax Man took Wake to beat State so he is out of the will.
So now we are left to compete against each other. Looks like Fuss is the leader going into the stretch.
The NFL playoffs start today but let’s start with a good bowl game today:
Southern Miss +7.5 vs Tulane – What Willie Fritz has done at Tulane is one of my favorite stories over the last couple of seasons. He modified the triple option he brought over from Georgia Southern and added a passing element. This year, the Wave had the 24th best offense in the land.
Southern Miss is going to bomb away. They have the CUSA’s best passing attack, averaging 288 yards per game. Tulane can be lit up through the air going 0-3 when allowing 275 passing yards. The Green Wave also struggled getting to the passer notching only 18 sacks on the year compared to 41 last year.
Tulane may be more muli-dimensional but still relies primarily on the run. The Golden Eagle have the 18th best rushing defense and should contain the Wave.
Tulane stumbled into the finish going 1-5 over the last six games of the season. Southern Miss had five losses this season, but two of them came against SEC teams back in September, They managed to post wins in five of their first six conference games before suffering losses to CUSA bowl teams Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic.
Tulane is still the better team. Southern Miss racked up those stats against some real cream puff teams. But the hook has me taking Southern Miss for a quatloo.
Southern Miss is going to bomb away. They have the CUSA’s best passing attack, averaging 288 yards per game. Tulane can be lit up through the air going 0-3 when allowing 275 passing yards. The Green Wave also struggled getting to the passer notching only 18 sacks on the year compared to 41 last year.
Tulane may be more muli-dimensional but still relies primarily on the run. The Golden Eagle have the 18th best rushing defense and should contain the Wave.
Tulane stumbled into the finish going 1-5 over the last six games of the season. Southern Miss had five losses this season, but two of them came against SEC teams back in September, They managed to post wins in five of their first six conference games before suffering losses to CUSA bowl teams Western Kentucky and Florida Atlantic.
Tulane is still the better team. Southern Miss racked up those stats against some real cream puff teams. But the hook has me taking Southern Miss for a quatloo.
Buffalo +2.5 vs Houston – Buffalo rode their defense and an opportunistic offense as they have found ways to win close games this season. The Bills finished 10-6 on the year and recorded their first 10-win season since Doug Flutie was in town back in 1999.
Houston has been involved in a lot of tight games this season with 11 of their 16 contests decided by seven points or less at this point of the season. The Texans are 8-3 in those games
Can Buffalo win it’s first playoff game since 1995? They have a solid chance today. Over the past five years, the team with the worst 3rd down conversion rate (i.e. can’t get their opponents off the field) is 0-4-1 ATS. That team this year is Houston as they allow 48.5% of third down conversions.
But can Buffalo take advantage? They stink at converting 38.4% of their third downs, also worst. It will be weakness against weakness when Buffalo has the ball on third down.
I’m going with the Bills here. Their defense is amazing. Overall they were #2 in points allowed. The Bills held 11 opponents to under 20 points this season and a 12th got to exactly 20 points.
Houston meanwhile stinks in defending in the red zone as they are dead last in the league. When the Bills get inside the Houston 20, the Bills will be able to convert.
The trends favor the Bills. Buffalo is 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog and 8-1-2 in their last 11 on the road. Houston has gone 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Even though Houston gets JJ Watt back after missing the second half of the season, I’m taking the Bills for a Mega Bet.
Houston has been involved in a lot of tight games this season with 11 of their 16 contests decided by seven points or less at this point of the season. The Texans are 8-3 in those games
Can Buffalo win it’s first playoff game since 1995? They have a solid chance today. Over the past five years, the team with the worst 3rd down conversion rate (i.e. can’t get their opponents off the field) is 0-4-1 ATS. That team this year is Houston as they allow 48.5% of third down conversions.
But can Buffalo take advantage? They stink at converting 38.4% of their third downs, also worst. It will be weakness against weakness when Buffalo has the ball on third down.
I’m going with the Bills here. Their defense is amazing. Overall they were #2 in points allowed. The Bills held 11 opponents to under 20 points this season and a 12th got to exactly 20 points.
Houston meanwhile stinks in defending in the red zone as they are dead last in the league. When the Bills get inside the Houston 20, the Bills will be able to convert.
The trends favor the Bills. Buffalo is 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog and 8-1-2 in their last 11 on the road. Houston has gone 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
Even though Houston gets JJ Watt back after missing the second half of the season, I’m taking the Bills for a Mega Bet.