It’s time to get ready for the best three weeks of sports. The bowl season is a blast with just about as many games. But except for four teams, no one else has a chance at a championship. One and done just means you play one game and go home – win or lose.
It’s nothing like March Madness. In March, 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.
But the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball now you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers. No longer are you rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
It’s nothing like March Madness. In March, 68 teams have at least a theoretic shot at winning it all. Win, and you’re still in.
But the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball now you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers. No longer are you rooting for your alma mater or against your hated rival. You have 66 other teams you can root for (or against)
And just like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to Phoenix.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. Oops, strike that, it finally happened. UVA went down last year. And guess what, they are a #1 seed again. Can it happen two years in a row? I doubt it, The top seeds are 135-1 since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
4. Advance your 2 seeds at least one game but then look for upsets. Last year all the number 2 seeds won the first game but then went 3-1 in the second round. In 2017, the 2 seeds also won all their first game but then went 2-2 in the second round.. Prior to that in 2015 all four number 2’s advanced and then went 2-2 in the second round. The same thing happened in 2014. So definitely feel free to advance the #2s for one round and then kick them out of your bracket.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to Phoenix.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. Oops, strike that, it finally happened. UVA went down last year. And guess what, they are a #1 seed again. Can it happen two years in a row? I doubt it, The top seeds are 135-1 since seeding started. I’ll keep on picking them.
4. Advance your 2 seeds at least one game but then look for upsets. Last year all the number 2 seeds won the first game but then went 3-1 in the second round. In 2017, the 2 seeds also won all their first game but then went 2-2 in the second round.. Prior to that in 2015 all four number 2’s advanced and then went 2-2 in the second round. The same thing happened in 2014. So definitely feel free to advance the #2s for one round and then kick them out of your bracket.
5. The 3 seeds are just as susceptible to falling to 14 seeds. Last year, the 3 seeds won all their first round games but went 2-2 in the second round (including Tennessee and some other team lost but I just can’t seem to recall who). In 2017 a 3 seed lost in the first round (West Virginia) and another (Utah) got launched after winning one game. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter number 3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. Put in a 14 seed for a little spice in your bracket.
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2017 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State beat somebody but the name escapes me) won. Last year, another pause - all the 5’s advanced. So have a little fun - take a 12 to beat a 5!
6. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. In 2016, the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor). In 2017 one #12 seed won (Middle Tenn State beat somebody but the name escapes me) won. Last year, another pause - all the 5’s advanced. So have a little fun - take a 12 to beat a 5!
7. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last eight Tournaments, eighteen of the sixty-four No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
8. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 88 Final Four teams, 71 (81%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed. Last year it was #11 Loyola Chicago. In 2017 it was #7 South Carolina.
8. Just don’t fall too in love with upsets. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 88 Final Four teams, 71 (81%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed. Last year it was #11 Loyola Chicago. In 2017 it was #7 South Carolina.
9. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 20 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.7. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 22 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). Last year was close though – the total was 18.
10. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams had trouble clinching a Tourney bid because they couldn’t win consistently. Teams from major conferences that are bubble teams are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
11. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was Syracuse.
10. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams had trouble clinching a Tourney bid because they couldn’t win consistently. Teams from major conferences that are bubble teams are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
11. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32. Last year it was Syracuse.
13. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 22 years, 12 national champions won their conference tournament.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be suspicious of Purdue, Texas Tech and LSU – all three seeds this year.
15. Find balance on offense and defense. Defense wins championship in football. Not so much in basketball. Basketball is more about balance. The champion for 14 of the last 15 years (UConn was the exception in 2014) has ranked in the top 10 in both of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. This year three teams earned that ranking – Duke, North Carolina and , of course, your favorite team, Michigan State.
14. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be suspicious of Purdue, Texas Tech and LSU – all three seeds this year.
15. Find balance on offense and defense. Defense wins championship in football. Not so much in basketball. Basketball is more about balance. The champion for 14 of the last 15 years (UConn was the exception in 2014) has ranked in the top 10 in both of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. This year three teams earned that ranking – Duke, North Carolina and , of course, your favorite team, Michigan State.
16. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year.
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State may have gotten screwed by getting placed in the #1 overall seed’s region, Duke but they prevail. It’s just one more adversity that Izzo team will overcome. After that, National Championship here we come.
b. In the Midwest – Florida State is athletic and on a roll – winning 14 of 16. The losses were to UNC and Duke
c. In the South – This was the toughest region to pick. All the top seeds are flawed but I went with Cincy to get over the hump and make it to the final four
d. In the West – North Carolina beat Duke twice without Zion and nearly a third time with him in
16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 14. A little risky. Really sticking my neck out with the B’rerCats
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the East – House rule – Michigan State may have gotten screwed by getting placed in the #1 overall seed’s region, Duke but they prevail. It’s just one more adversity that Izzo team will overcome. After that, National Championship here we come.
b. In the Midwest – Florida State is athletic and on a roll – winning 14 of 16. The losses were to UNC and Duke
c. In the South – This was the toughest region to pick. All the top seeds are flawed but I went with Cincy to get over the hump and make it to the final four
d. In the West – North Carolina beat Duke twice without Zion and nearly a third time with him in
16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 14. A little risky. Really sticking my neck out with the B’rerCats
17. For my First Four upset – It won’t be Buffalo – they are a good team and I have them making upsets on their own. So I’ll take Maryland to go down. I was not impressed with the Terps this year
18. For the 14 over 3 upset – Make mine a double please. LSU is in complete turmoil and falls to a Mr H’s favorite team – Yale. And Carson Edwards hasn’t found a shot he doesn’t like. He’ll shoot Purdue right out of the tourney on day one.
19. For the 12 over 5 upsets as – I’m doubling down on the double shots as I drink my way out of the tourney. Oregon will “hack a Happ” as the Badgers fall at the foul line. And the Murray State Racers high powered offense will get them by a fading Marquette
20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? If Cincy makes it to the Final Four they will need to get by Tennessee on day 2
Put it all together and here is my 2019 bracket
18. For the 14 over 3 upset – Make mine a double please. LSU is in complete turmoil and falls to a Mr H’s favorite team – Yale. And Carson Edwards hasn’t found a shot he doesn’t like. He’ll shoot Purdue right out of the tourney on day one.
19. For the 12 over 5 upsets as – I’m doubling down on the double shots as I drink my way out of the tourney. Oregon will “hack a Happ” as the Badgers fall at the foul line. And the Murray State Racers high powered offense will get them by a fading Marquette
20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? If Cincy makes it to the Final Four they will need to get by Tennessee on day 2
Put it all together and here is my 2019 bracket
Remember the 2019 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 26th at the Westgate
Woz and Berg are doing a little recon this weekend for the opening rounds of March Madness. I'm jealous.
Woz and Berg are doing a little recon this weekend for the opening rounds of March Madness. I'm jealous.