
It’s the Happiest Time of the Year! Sure there is Christmas and New Years is still fun. Though staying up until midnight and counting down the time until the new year hasn’t happened in quite a long time.
But what ties it all together and truly makes it the season of Joy is - Bowl Season!
It’s the time of the year when you get to see 40 college football games spread out so you can see them all. And a chance to see matchups that the powerhouse programs would never schedule. Set aside the CFP, how about Georgia vs Baylor or scUM vs Bama - could you hate two teams more? Or how about a rematch of the classic 2012 Rose Bowl with Oregon facing Wisconsin.
There’s plenty of other good games beyond this year’s big boys. Washington takes on Boise State in the Chris Petersen Bowl. Petersen was HC at Boise, left to go to Washington in 2014 and "stepped down" at the end of this season.
Air Force and Washington State should be a high flying, high scoring game. As should be SMU versus Florida Atlantic.
Memphis replaces UCF as this years group of Five winner and plays Penn State in what should be a great game too.
If you like Westerns, Western Kentucky plays Western Michigan in the First Responder Bowl. Maybe they will hand out the John Ford trophy to the winner. Trivia Question which I know Pete will get
Who did shoot Liberty Valance? The answer after this brief musical interlude
But what ties it all together and truly makes it the season of Joy is - Bowl Season!
It’s the time of the year when you get to see 40 college football games spread out so you can see them all. And a chance to see matchups that the powerhouse programs would never schedule. Set aside the CFP, how about Georgia vs Baylor or scUM vs Bama - could you hate two teams more? Or how about a rematch of the classic 2012 Rose Bowl with Oregon facing Wisconsin.
There’s plenty of other good games beyond this year’s big boys. Washington takes on Boise State in the Chris Petersen Bowl. Petersen was HC at Boise, left to go to Washington in 2014 and "stepped down" at the end of this season.
Air Force and Washington State should be a high flying, high scoring game. As should be SMU versus Florida Atlantic.
Memphis replaces UCF as this years group of Five winner and plays Penn State in what should be a great game too.
If you like Westerns, Western Kentucky plays Western Michigan in the First Responder Bowl. Maybe they will hand out the John Ford trophy to the winner. Trivia Question which I know Pete will get
Who did shoot Liberty Valance? The answer after this brief musical interlude

Answer: Why John Wayne of course. Jimmy Stewart thought he shot Liberty Valance (played by the late great Lee Marvin) but in a flash back within a flash back it was revealed that John Wayne killed him. Classic movie.
But back to football.
Now, nothing gets you interest going in the Bowl Season like entering a Confidence Pool. Pick all 40 games with putting the most points on your slam dunk, the sun would have to come up in the west for them to lose, favorite team. All the way down to 1 point on your upset special but you really doubt it. Now all of a sudden you’re watching Eastern Michigan vs Pitt because you have 20+ points on the Panthers. Love it
First a couple of rules.
Rule 1 - Always pick Michigan State. I never put a lot of points on them though. I get too excited about the game to add the stress of putting a lot of points on them too.
Rule 2- Always pick against Michigan. Feel free to put as many points on their foes as you like. This years it’s Bama, so you might just dial it back a bit.
But before you jump right in making picks and start spewing points all over the place - here are some things to consider:

Change in Coaches
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also, some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. This year it has been pretty calm but there is still time. Here’s the list so far
Appalachian State – For the second year in a row the Mountaineers will have a new HC as Eli Drinkwitz left for Mizzou
Florida Atlantic – is now longer the Fighting Kiffens. Lane is taking his talents to Ole Miss to try and torment his old master St. Nick
Washington – Chris Petersen stepped aside to let Jimmy Lake try his hand
Memphis – As expected, Mike Norvell got a promotion. He’s off to Florida State.
Florida State – The Noles fired Willie Taggert to make room for Norvell.
Boston College – Steve Addazio was fired and then later in the week hired by Colorado State. Jeff Hafley is the new Eagle HC
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also, some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. This year it has been pretty calm but there is still time. Here’s the list so far
Appalachian State – For the second year in a row the Mountaineers will have a new HC as Eli Drinkwitz left for Mizzou
Florida Atlantic – is now longer the Fighting Kiffens. Lane is taking his talents to Ole Miss to try and torment his old master St. Nick
Washington – Chris Petersen stepped aside to let Jimmy Lake try his hand
Memphis – As expected, Mike Norvell got a promotion. He’s off to Florida State.
Florida State – The Noles fired Willie Taggert to make room for Norvell.
Boston College – Steve Addazio was fired and then later in the week hired by Colorado State. Jeff Hafley is the new Eagle HC

Location
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? EIght teams will soon find out
Florida Atlantic - will no only play in state, it will play on its home field.
Central Florida - plays St Petersburg in the Bad Boy Mowers Bowl
Hawaii – plays on its home field (again!) in the eponymous bowl.
Eastern Michigan – plays down the road in Detroit in the Quick Lube errrr Lane Bowl
Texas A&M – plays in Houston’s NRG stadium in the Texas Bowl
California – plays down the bay in Santa Clara in the Red Box Bowl
Florida – plays in Miami in the Orange Bowl
Texas - plays in San Antonio in the Alamo Bowl
Last year "home" teams went 1-4. Maybe it's not that much of an advantage.
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? EIght teams will soon find out
Florida Atlantic - will no only play in state, it will play on its home field.
Central Florida - plays St Petersburg in the Bad Boy Mowers Bowl
Hawaii – plays on its home field (again!) in the eponymous bowl.
Eastern Michigan – plays down the road in Detroit in the Quick Lube errrr Lane Bowl
Texas A&M – plays in Houston’s NRG stadium in the Texas Bowl
California – plays down the bay in Santa Clara in the Red Box Bowl
Florida – plays in Miami in the Orange Bowl
Texas - plays in San Antonio in the Alamo Bowl
Last year "home" teams went 1-4. Maybe it's not that much of an advantage.
Key Players skipping the game
A growing trend in bowl games is star player skipping the bowls in order to save themselves for the pros. Here's a list of players that are going to leave their teams high and dry
A growing trend in bowl games is star player skipping the bowls in order to save themselves for the pros. Here's a list of players that are going to leave their teams high and dry
That's a lot of good players. AJ Dillon from Boston College and Cam Akers from FSU are the most concerning.
So how do you allocate your points those across 40 games?
One way would be to pick the favorites and put the most points on the biggest spreads. Doing so would lead to these picks:
So how do you allocate your points those across 40 games?
One way would be to pick the favorites and put the most points on the biggest spreads. Doing so would lead to these picks:
But favorites don't always win, even large favorites. Here is how favorites fared since 2011
Wow! The last couple of years have basically been a coin flip. The Big Flippy would be proud.
Another way would be to use the Sagarin ratings. By taking the higher rated team and putting the most points on he biggest differences between the ratings you would end up with these picks:
Another way would be to use the Sagarin ratings. By taking the higher rated team and putting the most points on he biggest differences between the ratings you would end up with these picks:
The results from 2011 using the Sagarin Ratings are
Last year was a true coin flip and the overall results are not much different than using the lines.
Another more sophisticated rating is the Football Outsiders S&P+ rating. Again, picking the higher rated team and putting the most points on he biggest differences between the ratings you would end up with these picks:
Another more sophisticated rating is the Football Outsiders S&P+ rating. Again, picking the higher rated team and putting the most points on he biggest differences between the ratings you would end up with these picks:
Confused? Yeah, me too. So rather than pick one of the above, I like to take make one entry that is purely mathematical, a blended average of the three,
as long as it doesn't violate rules #1 and #2 above. Here's what an average would look like:
as long as it doesn't violate rules #1 and #2 above. Here's what an average would look like:
It follows rules #1 and #2 so I'll go with it.
Another factor I like to consider is keeping my powder dry. By that I mean putting more points on teams playing later.
Typically, pools keep track of potential points i.e. if you won the rest of the games how would you place. I like potential points.
And I like to have an entry so I can root for my favorite teams.
So after watching way too much football and taking everything into consideration - here is my picks. I'll take my teams in upsets, allocate points to the back and mix it up a little with some of the coin flip games.
Another factor I like to consider is keeping my powder dry. By that I mean putting more points on teams playing later.
Typically, pools keep track of potential points i.e. if you won the rest of the games how would you place. I like potential points.
And I like to have an entry so I can root for my favorite teams.
So after watching way too much football and taking everything into consideration - here is my picks. I'll take my teams in upsets, allocate points to the back and mix it up a little with some of the coin flip games.
Good Luck!
And remember the 2020 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 24th at the Westgate SuperBook
And remember the 2020 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 24th at the Westgate SuperBook