College football at Disney - can it get even better? It's the Big Guys birthday this weekend. He decided he wanted to spend it at Disney World. Before he even finished asking if I wanted to go I was at yes. .
We are here as this is written, the night before we go into the park. We've already had dinner at our favorite eating spot - Beaches and Cream looking for somewhere to cap off the evening. I got to pick so I went with somewhere I've never been. The ESPN Club on the Boardwalk.
College football in Disney, double heaven for me. The problem was when we got in none of the TVs were on any ESPN channels. There was the NFL channel, MLB channel even NHL channel but no college football. It might as well be called the non-ESPN Club. WTF.
When an old waitress named Filipa introduced herself with "Hola" I had my doubts about getting a couple of TVs changed. I was wrong. She (eventually) changed one to ESPN and another to ESPNU. Heaven did wait. Worth it! Unfortunately my pick of Georgia Southern went south in the fourth quarter.
We are here as this is written, the night before we go into the park. We've already had dinner at our favorite eating spot - Beaches and Cream looking for somewhere to cap off the evening. I got to pick so I went with somewhere I've never been. The ESPN Club on the Boardwalk.
College football in Disney, double heaven for me. The problem was when we got in none of the TVs were on any ESPN channels. There was the NFL channel, MLB channel even NHL channel but no college football. It might as well be called the non-ESPN Club. WTF.
When an old waitress named Filipa introduced herself with "Hola" I had my doubts about getting a couple of TVs changed. I was wrong. She (eventually) changed one to ESPN and another to ESPNU. Heaven did wait. Worth it! Unfortunately my pick of Georgia Southern went south in the fourth quarter.
Georgia was done for all of 15 seconds when Godwin hauled in this bomb The Saxy Lady texted Monday wanting my pick for the Georgia LSU game on Saturday. I told her she would have to wait. I hadn't done my research yet. She's been on pins and needles ever since.
So in the interest of family harmony -I'll start with the pick for the biggest game of the weekend
LSU +7.5 vs Georgia – This is a hard one to handicap. For Georgia, sure they are number 2 but who have they really beaten? I’ll give you Missouri but does that compare to beating Auburn in Jordan-Hare. South Carolina was another nice one but it pales in comparison to beating Miami (FL) in week 1. The rest of their wins were a whole lot of Hostess in the BOGO aisle.
That said, the Dawgs have trailed all but 15 seconds this year (to the Saxy Lady's back up school - Vandy) and that was deficit was quickly erased by a 75 yard TD pass by Fromm. The Georgia defense matches up well against LSU. If the Tigers can’t run the ball they don’t move. The OL makes nice holes but gave up five sacks to Florida last week. Georgia’s defense is 20th against the run.
What this really comes down to is how motivated is LSU? With the loss to Florida and Georgia and Bama up next, their playoff chances went on Code Red. Will they play with their backs to the wall in front of a frenzied crowd or will the slowly give up the ghost in the second half?
The trends favor Georgia. They are 6-1 ATS overall and 14-3 ATS on the road. And the road team is 3-0-1 the last four times between these two.
I’ll take Georgia to win. But the hook scares me so I’ll take LSU to cover. No quatloos though. LSU could easily pack it in and lose by 2 TDs.
So in the interest of family harmony -I'll start with the pick for the biggest game of the weekend
LSU +7.5 vs Georgia – This is a hard one to handicap. For Georgia, sure they are number 2 but who have they really beaten? I’ll give you Missouri but does that compare to beating Auburn in Jordan-Hare. South Carolina was another nice one but it pales in comparison to beating Miami (FL) in week 1. The rest of their wins were a whole lot of Hostess in the BOGO aisle.
That said, the Dawgs have trailed all but 15 seconds this year (to the Saxy Lady's back up school - Vandy) and that was deficit was quickly erased by a 75 yard TD pass by Fromm. The Georgia defense matches up well against LSU. If the Tigers can’t run the ball they don’t move. The OL makes nice holes but gave up five sacks to Florida last week. Georgia’s defense is 20th against the run.
What this really comes down to is how motivated is LSU? With the loss to Florida and Georgia and Bama up next, their playoff chances went on Code Red. Will they play with their backs to the wall in front of a frenzied crowd or will the slowly give up the ghost in the second half?
The trends favor Georgia. They are 6-1 ATS overall and 14-3 ATS on the road. And the road team is 3-0-1 the last four times between these two.
I’ll take Georgia to win. But the hook scares me so I’ll take LSU to cover. No quatloos though. LSU could easily pack it in and lose by 2 TDs.
Texas State can't stop anyone let alone the Eagles triple option will make several quatloo bets on these guys though:
Georgia Southern -17.5 @ Texas State – TSU doesn’t have a prayer of stopping the Georgia Southern option attack. Using the common opponent angle, South Alabama beat Texas State 41-31, Georgia Southern beat USA 45-13.
Update - GSU never got going and won but lost 15-13
South Florida -7.5 @ Tulsa – Did you watch Tulsa collapse against Houston last week? They were up 26-17 going into the forth quarter then let up 24 unanswered in a 41-27 loss. The Golden Showers don’t know how to win.
USF does. They are 5-0 for the second year in a row. Make it 6-0.
Toledo -1.0 @ Eastern Michigan – Another team that can’t close the deal. The Hurons have lost four straight by a TD or less. The last three by a FG. Last week they let up two late TDs to lose to Western 27-24.
Toledo got their starting QB back last week and demolished Bowling Green. They find a way late to take down EMU.
Georgia Southern -17.5 @ Texas State – TSU doesn’t have a prayer of stopping the Georgia Southern option attack. Using the common opponent angle, South Alabama beat Texas State 41-31, Georgia Southern beat USA 45-13.
Update - GSU never got going and won but lost 15-13
South Florida -7.5 @ Tulsa – Did you watch Tulsa collapse against Houston last week? They were up 26-17 going into the forth quarter then let up 24 unanswered in a 41-27 loss. The Golden Showers don’t know how to win.
USF does. They are 5-0 for the second year in a row. Make it 6-0.
Toledo -1.0 @ Eastern Michigan – Another team that can’t close the deal. The Hurons have lost four straight by a TD or less. The last three by a FG. Last week they let up two late TDs to lose to Western 27-24.
Toledo got their starting QB back last week and demolished Bowling Green. They find a way late to take down EMU.
The last time scUM played a good defense, the Domers stuffed em Miami (FL) -6.5 @ Virginia – Miami will be flat after last weeks huge comeback win over FSU. And Virginia is coming off a bye and two weeks to prepare. But, the Turnover Chain will get going again and the Canes will make critical stops against the ACCs worst redzone offense to pull it out.
Wisconsin +7.5 @ Michigan – The last time scUM played a team with a semblance of a defense they lost to the Domers. Now you get a TD and the hook. Sounds good to me.
Might want to take a look at the Moneyline at +284 return on a Badger win
West Virginia -6.5 @ Iowa State – Will Grier was awful last week. For him at least. He had 4TDs but three picks all three in the red zone.
The last time he had a bad outing he rebounded with 370 yards, 3TDs and no picks vs Texas Tech. He’ll rebound while Iowa State will be reading their press clippings after upsetting Okie State last week.
Wisconsin +7.5 @ Michigan – The last time scUM played a team with a semblance of a defense they lost to the Domers. Now you get a TD and the hook. Sounds good to me.
Might want to take a look at the Moneyline at +284 return on a Badger win
West Virginia -6.5 @ Iowa State – Will Grier was awful last week. For him at least. He had 4TDs but three picks all three in the red zone.
The last time he had a bad outing he rebounded with 370 yards, 3TDs and no picks vs Texas Tech. He’ll rebound while Iowa State will be reading their press clippings after upsetting Okie State last week.
Colorado has never beaten USC Mississippi -6.5 @ Arkansas – Ole Miss is coming off a bye, Arkansas is coming off a beat down by Bama. The Rebs can pass, the Hogs can’t stop the pass.
Texas A&M -2.0 @ South Carolina – The only two teams to stop Jimbo’s Aggies are Bama and Clemson. USC is neither of those. Trayveon Williams will shred the Cocks run defense.
Ball State +3.0 @ Central Michigan - Ball State is the best team in the MAC on thrid down conversions. CMU is terrible on third downs, the passing game sucks and they are the 2nd worst in college football for offense. And I get three points? OK
Duke +2.5 @ Georgia Tech - that was fun Jackets. You blew out Bowling Green 63-17 and Louisville 66-31 but they are miserable excuses for college football teams. Duke has already taken down a triple option team in Army 34-14 and has two weeks to prepare for your. Sorry Sax Man and Mrs Bruce. Reality is about to come crashing down.
I'll go with a couple of Mini Megas on:
Colorado +7.0 @ USC – 0-12. That’s Colorado’s record vs USC. They have never beaten the Trojans going all the way back to 1927. But in a year when Kentucky can beat Florida streaks can be broken.
Coastal Carolina -5.0 vs UL Monroe – Hurricanes and scheduling have kept the Chanticleers on the road for 5 weeks. Your kids Pee Wee team plays better defense that UL Monroe. Coastal has a rocking good homecoming.
Texas A&M -2.0 @ South Carolina – The only two teams to stop Jimbo’s Aggies are Bama and Clemson. USC is neither of those. Trayveon Williams will shred the Cocks run defense.
Ball State +3.0 @ Central Michigan - Ball State is the best team in the MAC on thrid down conversions. CMU is terrible on third downs, the passing game sucks and they are the 2nd worst in college football for offense. And I get three points? OK
Duke +2.5 @ Georgia Tech - that was fun Jackets. You blew out Bowling Green 63-17 and Louisville 66-31 but they are miserable excuses for college football teams. Duke has already taken down a triple option team in Army 34-14 and has two weeks to prepare for your. Sorry Sax Man and Mrs Bruce. Reality is about to come crashing down.
I'll go with a couple of Mini Megas on:
Colorado +7.0 @ USC – 0-12. That’s Colorado’s record vs USC. They have never beaten the Trojans going all the way back to 1927. But in a year when Kentucky can beat Florida streaks can be broken.
Coastal Carolina -5.0 vs UL Monroe – Hurricanes and scheduling have kept the Chanticleers on the road for 5 weeks. Your kids Pee Wee team plays better defense that UL Monroe. Coastal has a rocking good homecoming.
Last years UCF Memphis game was a classic. Not so much this year. For this weeks Mega Bets I’ll go with:
Central Florida -4.5 @ Memphis – The Knights have put up 45 or more points against every Div 1A team they have faced. All wins by the way.
Memphis lost to the only two respectable teams they’ve played Navy and Tulane scoring a total of 45 points in those games.
It was a 62-55 double OT barn burner when these two last met in the American Conference Championship. Not this year.
Central Florida -4.5 @ Memphis – The Knights have put up 45 or more points against every Div 1A team they have faced. All wins by the way.
Memphis lost to the only two respectable teams they’ve played Navy and Tulane scoring a total of 45 points in those games.
It was a 62-55 double OT barn burner when these two last met in the American Conference Championship. Not this year.
Burfect is back for the Bengals. That spells trouble for Conner and the run game Cincinnati -2.5 vs Pittsburgh – Big Ben always looks great at home. He destroyed a defenseless Atlanta last week 41-17. But he struggles outside the Steel City. The Steeler defense is still swiss cheese since losing Ryan Shazier. Joe Mixon will have a good game out of the backfield.
Cincinnati was laying pretty good defense and now Vontez Burfict is back from suspension. James Conner will not have the game he lad last week.
The line overstates the Steelers blow out last week. They aren’t that good.
Also in the NFL I'll go with a quatloo bets on
NY Jets -2.5 vs Indianapolis – Andrew Luck may be recovering but he still has no one to throw to. TY Hilton is likely out for the game. Sam Darnold has enough weapons to scorch the ever woeful Colts defense.
Jacksonville -1.5 @ Dallas – I hate backing Blake Bortles but the defense will contain the anemic Cowboy offense and it’s a rebound game for the Jags after getting killed by KC last week.
And a Mini Mega on:
Cleveland +1.0 vs LA Chargers – The Browns defense plus Baker Mayfield makes Cleveland a solid team. The Chargers are flakey as can be.
Going with the Pat Time Zone Angle too as LA has a 1:00 ET time game. The wrong team is favored here.
For the Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with
Hawaii +12.5 @ BYU
Wyoming +19.5 @ Fresno State
Arizona +14.0 @ Utah
Cincinnati was laying pretty good defense and now Vontez Burfict is back from suspension. James Conner will not have the game he lad last week.
The line overstates the Steelers blow out last week. They aren’t that good.
Also in the NFL I'll go with a quatloo bets on
NY Jets -2.5 vs Indianapolis – Andrew Luck may be recovering but he still has no one to throw to. TY Hilton is likely out for the game. Sam Darnold has enough weapons to scorch the ever woeful Colts defense.
Jacksonville -1.5 @ Dallas – I hate backing Blake Bortles but the defense will contain the anemic Cowboy offense and it’s a rebound game for the Jags after getting killed by KC last week.
And a Mini Mega on:
Cleveland +1.0 vs LA Chargers – The Browns defense plus Baker Mayfield makes Cleveland a solid team. The Chargers are flakey as can be.
Going with the Pat Time Zone Angle too as LA has a 1:00 ET time game. The wrong team is favored here.
For the Point Whore Parlay I’ll go with
Hawaii +12.5 @ BYU
Wyoming +19.5 @ Fresno State
Arizona +14.0 @ Utah
Herbert might be the first QB taken in the draft The Sheriff had another bad outing last week. He'll get it corrected soon
No more road dogs for the Sheriff. Anyone going to Vegas this weekend bet the opposite of what you see below and you will be in the money. Just don’t forget your drink coupons!
Doofus – good advice. Will you be joining is this year? Looks like a good size group again.
Fresno State (-19.5) vs Wyoming - The Sheriff can’t say enough nice things about the 4-1 Fresno State Bulldogs and their great HC Jeff Tedford. Jeff’s team will be competing for the Mountain West Title against this year.
Doofus – going the other way with the Point Whore Parlay
Northwestern (-3.5) vs Nebraska - The Scott Frost misery train pulls into Evanston this weekend.
Oregon (+3) vs Washington - Justin Herbert looked like a First-Round draft pick against Cal two weeks ago, and the Ducks are almost impossible to beat in Eugene. Oregon is coming off a bye whereas Washington barely survived UCLA last week. Despite its fluky loss to Stanford, Oregon might just be the best team in the PAC-12 North.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the Week 7 Bettors Guide
No more road dogs for the Sheriff. Anyone going to Vegas this weekend bet the opposite of what you see below and you will be in the money. Just don’t forget your drink coupons!
Doofus – good advice. Will you be joining is this year? Looks like a good size group again.
Fresno State (-19.5) vs Wyoming - The Sheriff can’t say enough nice things about the 4-1 Fresno State Bulldogs and their great HC Jeff Tedford. Jeff’s team will be competing for the Mountain West Title against this year.
Doofus – going the other way with the Point Whore Parlay
Northwestern (-3.5) vs Nebraska - The Scott Frost misery train pulls into Evanston this weekend.
Oregon (+3) vs Washington - Justin Herbert looked like a First-Round draft pick against Cal two weeks ago, and the Ducks are almost impossible to beat in Eugene. Oregon is coming off a bye whereas Washington barely survived UCLA last week. Despite its fluky loss to Stanford, Oregon might just be the best team in the PAC-12 North.
And for all the games, spreads, picks and much much more here is the Week 7 Bettors Guide
| week_7_predictions.xlsx |
Remember the GO JUMBO trip is 3 weeks away on Nov 3rd at the Westgate SuperBook
And as the Sheriff says DON"T FORGET YOUR DRINK COUPONS!
And as the Sheriff says DON"T FORGET YOUR DRINK COUPONS!
