
Like Cosmo in the classic first to fold episode “I’m out”
Back to back OT losses did me in. One was a result of an infamous non-call. One that the NFL said it will address - and likely make things worse. But, you know what. New Orleans runs the ball on first down and they have the walk off FG. Self-inflicted Saints fans.
The other was unfortunate correct call. Offsides on a pick? Arrrrrgh! You’re killing me Smalls!
But changes still need to be made in the NFL. You knew that when New England won the toss the game was over. Both teams need to have a chance with the ball in OT.
So now the story lines are in place. Legendary wise Wizard versus the new generation, the next great Wizard. My favorite plot line goes like this.
Back to back OT losses did me in. One was a result of an infamous non-call. One that the NFL said it will address - and likely make things worse. But, you know what. New Orleans runs the ball on first down and they have the walk off FG. Self-inflicted Saints fans.
The other was unfortunate correct call. Offsides on a pick? Arrrrrgh! You’re killing me Smalls!
But changes still need to be made in the NFL. You knew that when New England won the toss the game was over. Both teams need to have a chance with the ball in OT.
So now the story lines are in place. Legendary wise Wizard versus the new generation, the next great Wizard. My favorite plot line goes like this.

Back in 2002, a 24 year old second year QB was playing in his first Super Bowl. He was heavy underdog to the Rams. The Greatest Show on Turf was looking to win its second Super Bowl in three years.
But the script was flipped. A, now all too familiar, late drive by Brady, led to a game-winning field goal, producing a 20-17 upset. That drive snuffed out the Rams' budding dynasty and started the Patriots.
Fun story line but it has no bearing on the game.
Here’s what will:
Brady is up to the moment – will Goff be? – By now you have heard the numbers on Brady, he has Super Bowl appearances (9) the all franchises not named New England. The Broncos, Cowboys and Steelers have eight each. He has more playoff wins than all but five franchises. Been there done that.
Goff looked like a bust last year after being the overall first pick. New coach, new year and he is in the Super Bowl. Can he sustain the amazing trajectory? Who knows, but if he struggles (and he can be inconsistent) you can give Belichick the Lombardi trophy at halftime.
But the script was flipped. A, now all too familiar, late drive by Brady, led to a game-winning field goal, producing a 20-17 upset. That drive snuffed out the Rams' budding dynasty and started the Patriots.
Fun story line but it has no bearing on the game.
Here’s what will:
Brady is up to the moment – will Goff be? – By now you have heard the numbers on Brady, he has Super Bowl appearances (9) the all franchises not named New England. The Broncos, Cowboys and Steelers have eight each. He has more playoff wins than all but five franchises. Been there done that.
Goff looked like a bust last year after being the overall first pick. New coach, new year and he is in the Super Bowl. Can he sustain the amazing trajectory? Who knows, but if he struggles (and he can be inconsistent) you can give Belichick the Lombardi trophy at halftime.

Belichick will want Goff to try and beat him - The Rams offense is built on Gurley running behind outside zone blocking setting up the play action.
Belichick is the master of eliminating your best player and scheme. That means stopping the zone blocking and Gurley and making Goff win the game. If you see wide splits from the Pats DL, this is exactly what is happening.
McVay has a Plan B - If you see more of CJ Anderson, it’s not because Gurley is hurt, rather the Rams are countering and pounding away inside with CJ.
Belichick is the master of eliminating your best player and scheme. That means stopping the zone blocking and Gurley and making Goff win the game. If you see wide splits from the Pats DL, this is exactly what is happening.
McVay has a Plan B - If you see more of CJ Anderson, it’s not because Gurley is hurt, rather the Rams are countering and pounding away inside with CJ.

Edelman and Gronk will see plenty of targets – The Rams invested heavily in the DL and defensive backfield leaving the linebacker as the weak point. Belichick will force their weak point to cover his best receivers. Expect to see plenty of drag routes.
Sony Michel will outrush Gurley – The running game behind Michel took off late in the season. Another example of one of the many ways Belichick will out scheme you. With the Rams LBs occupied with Edelman and Gronk it opens up lanes for Michel.
Gurley will be splitting carries with CJ in the cat and mouse game between McVay and Belichick while Michel will be the counter punch to the Rams LBs focused on the drag routes.
Sony Michel will outrush Gurley – The running game behind Michel took off late in the season. Another example of one of the many ways Belichick will out scheme you. With the Rams LBs occupied with Edelman and Gronk it opens up lanes for Michel.
Gurley will be splitting carries with CJ in the cat and mouse game between McVay and Belichick while Michel will be the counter punch to the Rams LBs focused on the drag routes.

Aaron Donald will see plenty of double teams and counters – Once again Belichick will try to take away the best Rams defender – Aaron Donald. He will go with double teams and chip blocking, then run straight at him with a counter. The Pats have done a masterful job keeping Brady clean. They have not allowed a sack in the playoffs.
But that streak will end – Donald is too good and the DL has too many weapons for Brady to just pick apart the Rams defense. It’s been the MO for all teams for beating Brady – pressure up the middle. When he gets happy feet he struggles and throws picks. He’s too old and immobile to roll out of pressure.
But that streak will end – Donald is too good and the DL has too many weapons for Brady to just pick apart the Rams defense. It’s been the MO for all teams for beating Brady – pressure up the middle. When he gets happy feet he struggles and throws picks. He’s too old and immobile to roll out of pressure.

Goff will be pressured and sacked too – Somehow some way the Pats generated a pass rush late in the season. During the playoffs, Goff has been only sacked once but he will go down again. The Rams OL sprung a leak during the midseason and it led to a rash of turnover (11 in four games) so expect at least one turnover from Goff. If its early in the game and he gets rattled it could make for a long day for the Rams.
Look to see if McVay becomes less conservative – Statistically, McVay is the most conservative head coach in the game. His decision, against the Saints, and kick a FG instead of taking a penalty and going for a TD at the 1 is perfect example.
On fourth-and-2 or fewer yards in opposition territory, the Rams went for it just 20 percent of the time by far the lowest percentage in the league. New England? 70 percent.
The Eagles beat the Pats last year by being aggressive from start to finish. If McVay stays conservative the Rams chances shrink significantly. If you see him gong on it on fourth down he self scouted and knows what needs to be done.
Look to see if McVay becomes less conservative – Statistically, McVay is the most conservative head coach in the game. His decision, against the Saints, and kick a FG instead of taking a penalty and going for a TD at the 1 is perfect example.
On fourth-and-2 or fewer yards in opposition territory, the Rams went for it just 20 percent of the time by far the lowest percentage in the league. New England? 70 percent.
The Eagles beat the Pats last year by being aggressive from start to finish. If McVay stays conservative the Rams chances shrink significantly. If you see him gong on it on fourth down he self scouted and knows what needs to be done.

The script has flipped – Coming into the playoffs, the Pats had a chip on their shoulders. They are too old, Gronk is decrepit, this is no longer the Pats of old, it’s the end of an era. they said (me included). Belichick and Brady played it up to the max. Remember #BetAgainstUs? Discounted and disrespected, they played out of their minds.
Now, they are favored. Everyone (80+% of the bets) are on the Pats. Not so much for the Pats, People don’t want to bet against them. The betting public doesn’t want to get burned again.
Meanwhile the Rams were expected to make it to the Super Bowl. This is there year! McVay is the next Belichick! Then, a bad non-call call later the Rams are the one not supposed to be here. They have to answer to why the Saints don't deserve the trip to Atlanta. A car dealer in New Orleans has billboards around downtown saying "The refs bleaux it". The disrespect card has been handed to them.
The Chip is now squarely on the Rams shoulders. Can McVay leverage it like Belichick and Brady?
Now, they are favored. Everyone (80+% of the bets) are on the Pats. Not so much for the Pats, People don’t want to bet against them. The betting public doesn’t want to get burned again.
Meanwhile the Rams were expected to make it to the Super Bowl. This is there year! McVay is the next Belichick! Then, a bad non-call call later the Rams are the one not supposed to be here. They have to answer to why the Saints don't deserve the trip to Atlanta. A car dealer in New Orleans has billboards around downtown saying "The refs bleaux it". The disrespect card has been handed to them.
The Chip is now squarely on the Rams shoulders. Can McVay leverage it like Belichick and Brady?

LA Rams +2.5 vs New England – All the above would indicate that the Pats will win easily. But I still think they are overrated. Without being able to play the disrespect card (and they will still try) they aren’t the same team. They really have gone downhill.
New England may be 2-2 in their last four Super Bowls going back to 2015 but think about it. Atlanta blew a 28-3 lead because they wouldn’t run the ball late. Seattle makes one of the biggest blunders in Super Bowl history by not going Beast Mode on the final play. If their opponents didn’t have brain farts they Pats could easily be 0-4 in those games.
Statistically, the Rams are 1 point better than New England (which was the opening spread) so you are getting 3.5 points of value because no one wants to bet against Brady. I will. Make it the final Mega Bet of the year.
New England may be 2-2 in their last four Super Bowls going back to 2015 but think about it. Atlanta blew a 28-3 lead because they wouldn’t run the ball late. Seattle makes one of the biggest blunders in Super Bowl history by not going Beast Mode on the final play. If their opponents didn’t have brain farts they Pats could easily be 0-4 in those games.
Statistically, the Rams are 1 point better than New England (which was the opening spread) so you are getting 3.5 points of value because no one wants to bet against Brady. I will. Make it the final Mega Bet of the year.
Of course it wouldn’t be the Super Bowl without a lot of prop bets - 440 at last count.
You can make bets before the game even starts. The coin flip is -102 for both heads and tails. Not only can you bet how long flip but how long it will take Atlanta’s own Gladys Knight to sing the National Anthem. The last six averaged 1:45 so that is the line.
And her time will set the line for another prop – will there be a scoring drive less than the time it takes her to sing the National Anthem – yes -145 / No +105
Here’s one I haven’t seen before – will Maroon 5 play the Sponge Bob song “Sweet Victory”. For context, in a 2001 episode, the song was sung by the characters in the Bubble Bowl. Here’s the video:
You can make bets before the game even starts. The coin flip is -102 for both heads and tails. Not only can you bet how long flip but how long it will take Atlanta’s own Gladys Knight to sing the National Anthem. The last six averaged 1:45 so that is the line.
And her time will set the line for another prop – will there be a scoring drive less than the time it takes her to sing the National Anthem – yes -145 / No +105
Here’s one I haven’t seen before – will Maroon 5 play the Sponge Bob song “Sweet Victory”. For context, in a 2001 episode, the song was sung by the characters in the Bubble Bowl. Here’s the video:
There’s a petition going around, with a million signatures and counting, for the band sing the song in honor of the recent death of creator Stephen Hillenburg. Add in that the voice doing the intro for the show will be the same guy who voices Squidward, it’s no wonder the odds strongly favor it happening 5/11 bet 110 to win 50.
I’m in
The bet goes further – will the show feature a SpongeBob costume or inflatable – I’ll take yes at 5/1
And finally will SpongeBob take a knee 30/1 - I’ll pass
I’m in
The bet goes further – will the show feature a SpongeBob costume or inflatable – I’ll take yes at 5/1
And finally will SpongeBob take a knee 30/1 - I’ll pass
As for the game itself based on the above I'll go with:
Who will have more yards? Michel -7.5 vs Gurley - I'll take Michel and give the yards
Will Brady throw a pick - yes 110
Total sacks by both teams - over 3.5 -140
Will the Pats convert a fourth down - yes +115
And my favorite
Will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter Yes +230 Getting those odds betting on a Brady comeback? Sounds like a winner.
Here''s the complete list of of all the prop bets at the SuperBook
Who will have more yards? Michel -7.5 vs Gurley - I'll take Michel and give the yards
Will Brady throw a pick - yes 110
Total sacks by both teams - over 3.5 -140
Will the Pats convert a fourth down - yes +115
And my favorite
Will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter Yes +230 Getting those odds betting on a Brady comeback? Sounds like a winner.
Here''s the complete list of of all the prop bets at the SuperBook

sbliiiprops_westgate_full.pdf |
Get you cheese popcorn ready. This game should be a dandy