Even Aaron Rodgers lost his first playoff game It's the end of the NFL regular season. No more joke weeks like week 17. No more having to watch the likes of Blaine Gabbert, Mark Sanchez and the decrepit Eli Manning. The lousy talent succumbs to the survival of the fittest leaving us the best players and teams. And no more worrying if a team is motivated to play. It’s win or go home.
Well. Maybe not quite the best talent. The best of the best start next week with home field advantage.
When making my picks, I’m going to use an interesting stat that I came across. The record ATS for quarterbacks in their first playoff game. According to WalterFootball.com they don't do too well:
Well. Maybe not quite the best talent. The best of the best start next week with home field advantage.
When making my picks, I’m going to use an interesting stat that I came across. The record ATS for quarterbacks in their first playoff game. According to WalterFootball.com they don't do too well:
| Home Favorites Home Dogs Road Favorites Road Dogs Combined | ATS 4-13 2-5 1-2-1 6-9 13-29-1 | Straight Up 7-10 2-5 2-2 3-12 14-29 | |
A playoff rookie who took the most sacks? I'll bet against that. This week there are three home favorite QBs playing in their first playoff game - Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trubisky.
Indianapolis +2.0 @ Houston - This is the third meeting between the two with the road team taking the previous games. The Colts go as Luck goes as the run game is hard to depend on. The defense has been fantastic, limiting six of the last seven opponents to no more than 250 passing yards. Houston, meanwhile, has split its last four games with the wins coming over lowly Jacksonville and the Jets.
Of the Texans' convincing victories this year - Jaguars twice, Dolphins, Titans, Browns - they managed to battle opponents that had bad blocking and awful and/or inexperienced signal-callers starting for them.
The Colts don't have either of those two traits. Andrew Luck has improved as the season has progressed, and he's protected by one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.
Houston can’t block. They have the worst OL of the twelve playoff teams. And Watson holds the ball too long and takes unnecessary sacks. He was sacked 12 in the last two games between these two and had a league high 62 sacks on the season. You can expect at least another five today.
The Colts are the better team with the better QB getting points against a playoff rookie. I’ll take the underdog for a Mega Bet.
Indianapolis +2.0 @ Houston - This is the third meeting between the two with the road team taking the previous games. The Colts go as Luck goes as the run game is hard to depend on. The defense has been fantastic, limiting six of the last seven opponents to no more than 250 passing yards. Houston, meanwhile, has split its last four games with the wins coming over lowly Jacksonville and the Jets.
Of the Texans' convincing victories this year - Jaguars twice, Dolphins, Titans, Browns - they managed to battle opponents that had bad blocking and awful and/or inexperienced signal-callers starting for them.
The Colts don't have either of those two traits. Andrew Luck has improved as the season has progressed, and he's protected by one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.
Houston can’t block. They have the worst OL of the twelve playoff teams. And Watson holds the ball too long and takes unnecessary sacks. He was sacked 12 in the last two games between these two and had a league high 62 sacks on the season. You can expect at least another five today.
The Colts are the better team with the better QB getting points against a playoff rookie. I’ll take the underdog for a Mega Bet.
Amari Cooper's threat in the passing game. Dallas -2.5 vs Seattle – This is the hardest game to handicap of the weekend. Neither team is starting a rookie playoff QB and he line would indicate they are about equal. They are.
The Cowboys take the field with a swagger, having won seven of eight contests to close the regular season. The outlier came in a 23-0 loss at the Colts. Dallas is 7-1 at home, which brings additional confidence. They scored 17 or fewer points in five of their first eight contests. Over the season’s second-half, it only happened twice.
Seattle has some swagger too, having won six of their last seven. The Seahawks were one of those teams that put the shackles on the Cowboys in the early season, handing them a 24-13 loss in week 3.
If the Seahawks are going to pull the upset, their defense will again have to rise to the occasion. Besides Amari Cooper not on the roster in that contest, Earl Thomas won’t be in the defensive backfield. He picked off two passes in the first matchup. The following Sunday, he was lost for the season with a broken leg. With safety Kam Chancellor on IR and Richard Sherman playing for the 49ers, the Legion of Boom was officially no more come Week 4. The Seahawks defense is a shell of its former self having given up 24 or more points in seven of their nine games.
The Cowboys take the field with a swagger, having won seven of eight contests to close the regular season. The outlier came in a 23-0 loss at the Colts. Dallas is 7-1 at home, which brings additional confidence. They scored 17 or fewer points in five of their first eight contests. Over the season’s second-half, it only happened twice.
Seattle has some swagger too, having won six of their last seven. The Seahawks were one of those teams that put the shackles on the Cowboys in the early season, handing them a 24-13 loss in week 3.
If the Seahawks are going to pull the upset, their defense will again have to rise to the occasion. Besides Amari Cooper not on the roster in that contest, Earl Thomas won’t be in the defensive backfield. He picked off two passes in the first matchup. The following Sunday, he was lost for the season with a broken leg. With safety Kam Chancellor on IR and Richard Sherman playing for the 49ers, the Legion of Boom was officially no more come Week 4. The Seahawks defense is a shell of its former self having given up 24 or more points in seven of their nine games.
Opens up the running lanes for Zeke Cooper's presence allows Ezekiel Elliott to have more running room, as teams have to respect a player in the receiving corps for a change. This is a favorable matchup for Elliott, as the Seahawks are a middle of the pack run defense. They struggled versus Elliott before, surrendering 127 yards on just 16 carries back in the week 3 contest.
If the Texans have the worst OL in the playoffs, Seattle is not far behind. Russel Wilson is constantly under duress. Yet, he often gets out of it with his wizardry and is able to find one of his receivers for long gains. The weakness of Dallas' defense is the secondary.
With the teams so evenly matched it could come down to special teams and coaching. The special teams advantage goes to the Cowboys. Last week, the Seahawks surrendered 18 points on special teams, thanks to two blocked punts and a long return
The coaching advantage goes to the Seahawks. Pete Carroll obviously have an extensive successful track record in the playoffs, while Jason Garett has won just won playoff game, a controversial win over the Lions in 2014.
This one really is a toss up so I’ll take the home team Cowboys for a quatloo.
If the Texans have the worst OL in the playoffs, Seattle is not far behind. Russel Wilson is constantly under duress. Yet, he often gets out of it with his wizardry and is able to find one of his receivers for long gains. The weakness of Dallas' defense is the secondary.
With the teams so evenly matched it could come down to special teams and coaching. The special teams advantage goes to the Cowboys. Last week, the Seahawks surrendered 18 points on special teams, thanks to two blocked punts and a long return
The coaching advantage goes to the Seahawks. Pete Carroll obviously have an extensive successful track record in the playoffs, while Jason Garett has won just won playoff game, a controversial win over the Lions in 2014.
This one really is a toss up so I’ll take the home team Cowboys for a quatloo.
Baltimore's defense dominated LA in Week 16 LA Chargers +2.5 @ Baltimore – Lamar Jackson was one of my favorite QB picks in last year’s draft. But that means not only is he a rookie to the playoffs, he’s a pure rookie.
The Ravens will look to their strong defense rather than QB play to pull this off. The teams faced off in Week 16 on the West Coast with Baltimore winning in impressive fashion, 22-10. The Ravens’ defense was dominant forcing three turnovers. Rivers was 23-of-37 passing for 181 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Since Jackson took over, Baltimore has become a run-heavy offense This also has allowed the Ravens the opportunity to control the clock and dictate the game tempo. Baltimore's defense has been strong all season finishing fourth in the league against the run (82.9 ypg) while leading the NFL in fewest points allowed (17.9 ppg). The secondary has been vulnerable at times as Cleveland (twice) and Kansas City put up more than 300 passing yards.
Rivers struggled in that first meeting to be kind. However, the Chargers were coming off an emotional win versus the Chiefs and may not have had their heads in the game. I expect the Chargers to be sharper this time. It helps that they'll have Hunter Henry available for game action for the first time all year. The talented tight end has been practicing with the first team, which is absolutely huge. Baltimore's defense is excellent, but the sole area of weakness is defending tight ends. Henry's presence will be a big boost.
The Ravens will look to their strong defense rather than QB play to pull this off. The teams faced off in Week 16 on the West Coast with Baltimore winning in impressive fashion, 22-10. The Ravens’ defense was dominant forcing three turnovers. Rivers was 23-of-37 passing for 181 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
Since Jackson took over, Baltimore has become a run-heavy offense This also has allowed the Ravens the opportunity to control the clock and dictate the game tempo. Baltimore's defense has been strong all season finishing fourth in the league against the run (82.9 ypg) while leading the NFL in fewest points allowed (17.9 ppg). The secondary has been vulnerable at times as Cleveland (twice) and Kansas City put up more than 300 passing yards.
Rivers struggled in that first meeting to be kind. However, the Chargers were coming off an emotional win versus the Chiefs and may not have had their heads in the game. I expect the Chargers to be sharper this time. It helps that they'll have Hunter Henry available for game action for the first time all year. The talented tight end has been practicing with the first team, which is absolutely huge. Baltimore's defense is excellent, but the sole area of weakness is defending tight ends. Henry's presence will be a big boost.
LA should limit Lamar just like last time The Charger defense has held up pretty well, especially since the return of Joey Bosa. The Chargers had a nice game plan prepared for Lamar Jackson in their first meeting. He was held to his lowest rushing total as a starter, picking up 39 ground yards on 13 scrambles.
The Chargers have the 10th best run defense which is much better versus the rush than the other opponents Jackson has faced as a starter. Now LA gets to be the first team to face him twice.
I’m going to go against the Pat Time Zone Angle (LA is playing a 1:00 ET time game) and take the Chargers and the points. The Bolts are 5-1 against the spread in early East Coast starts and have covered seven of their eight road games. I expect that LA will be focused in this game unlike week 16 and will limit a rookie QB that relies on his legs. Just like their first matchup. Make it a quatloo.
The Chargers have the 10th best run defense which is much better versus the rush than the other opponents Jackson has faced as a starter. Now LA gets to be the first team to face him twice.
I’m going to go against the Pat Time Zone Angle (LA is playing a 1:00 ET time game) and take the Chargers and the points. The Bolts are 5-1 against the spread in early East Coast starts and have covered seven of their eight road games. I expect that LA will be focused in this game unlike week 16 and will limit a rookie QB that relies on his legs. Just like their first matchup. Make it a quatloo.
You think the Lions front office was dumb - Oakland traded away Khalil Mack Philadelphia +6.0 @ Chicago - The biggest spread of the weekend comes with the matchup of the defending champs on the road against the young, hungry Bears.
The Eagles have won three straight and five of their last six overall including victories against the Rams and Texans to barely sneak into the playoffs. Nick Foles is running the offense very well and the defense is finally playing up to its potential. The return of Darren Sproles has been a huge boost too.
Even with the recent success, Philadelphia's secondary is still very patchwork and exploitable. The problem is the Bears won’t be able to take advantage of this. Once again, it’s a rookie playoff QB. Trubisky is superb while scrambling around for yardage, but is not that great as a passer. Trubisky has thrown very well at times, but against tougher foes, he's had a habit of releasing passes off his back foot, which has led to interceptions.
The Eagles have won three straight and five of their last six overall including victories against the Rams and Texans to barely sneak into the playoffs. Nick Foles is running the offense very well and the defense is finally playing up to its potential. The return of Darren Sproles has been a huge boost too.
Even with the recent success, Philadelphia's secondary is still very patchwork and exploitable. The problem is the Bears won’t be able to take advantage of this. Once again, it’s a rookie playoff QB. Trubisky is superb while scrambling around for yardage, but is not that great as a passer. Trubisky has thrown very well at times, but against tougher foes, he's had a habit of releasing passes off his back foot, which has led to interceptions.
Trubisky has a tendency to throw off his back foot leading to picks I'm sure Chicago would love to run the ball as much as possible so that Trubisky doesn't do this very often. The problem with that strategy is that the Eagles have improved substantially against the run lately. They struggled against the rush, until their top linebacker, Jordan Hicks, returned from injury. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen won't have much success accumulating yardage on the ground.
Chicago's defense at home has been lights out and Khalil Mack's impact has been immeasurable. Oakland’s trade at the beginning of the season was off the charts stupid, even for Chucky.
The Bears clamped down big time on the Rams about a month ago in a 15-6 home win. The Bears have a stellar defensive front that is capable of putting tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. But Foles happens to be well protected. Still, Chicago has the personnel in the secondary to slow down Alshon Jeffery and most of the other receivers.
I’ll take the Eagles for a quatloo. The Bears haven't beaten a team that has made the playoffs by double digits this year, so this game should be close. Expect Trubisky to make a mistake or two which will keep the Eagles hanging around and cover the six points.
Chicago's defense at home has been lights out and Khalil Mack's impact has been immeasurable. Oakland’s trade at the beginning of the season was off the charts stupid, even for Chucky.
The Bears clamped down big time on the Rams about a month ago in a 15-6 home win. The Bears have a stellar defensive front that is capable of putting tons of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. But Foles happens to be well protected. Still, Chicago has the personnel in the secondary to slow down Alshon Jeffery and most of the other receivers.
I’ll take the Eagles for a quatloo. The Bears haven't beaten a team that has made the playoffs by double digits this year, so this game should be close. Expect Trubisky to make a mistake or two which will keep the Eagles hanging around and cover the six points.
