
Before we get into the NFL Divisional Playoffs – a moment of silence for former head basketball coach Gus Ganakas. He joined MSU as an assistant in 1966 and became head coach in 1969 when HC John E Bennington died of a heart attack shortly before the season began.
Gus is probably most known for a player walk out in 1975 due to him starting a local white player. Gus refused to bend and started the JVs against Bobby Knight’s National Championship Hoosiers. It wasn’t pretty.
What he should be remembered for was his great recruiting. He brought in some fun teams with Greg Kelser, Lindsay Hairston , and one of my favorites, Terry Furlow.
The year after the walkout, MSU purged their athletic department, firing the AD Burt Smith, head football coach Denny Stolz and Gus.
Gus was replaced by the legendary Jud Heathcote. Rather than undermine his replacement, Gus convinced his best recruit yet to give Jud a chance. Magic said “I met him when I attended my first basketball camp on MSU’s campus and he was the main reason I chose to be a Spartan.”
RIP Gus. A great Spartan.
Gus is probably most known for a player walk out in 1975 due to him starting a local white player. Gus refused to bend and started the JVs against Bobby Knight’s National Championship Hoosiers. It wasn’t pretty.
What he should be remembered for was his great recruiting. He brought in some fun teams with Greg Kelser, Lindsay Hairston , and one of my favorites, Terry Furlow.
The year after the walkout, MSU purged their athletic department, firing the AD Burt Smith, head football coach Denny Stolz and Gus.
Gus was replaced by the legendary Jud Heathcote. Rather than undermine his replacement, Gus convinced his best recruit yet to give Jud a chance. Magic said “I met him when I attended my first basketball camp on MSU’s campus and he was the main reason I chose to be a Spartan.”
RIP Gus. A great Spartan.

Now it’s time for the Big Boys – the teams with the best records and home field advantage. In Vegas I took the Saints and Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl. So far so good. Both are the number 1 seeds in their conferences.
But that doesn’t mean they are a lock to make it. In 12 of the last 13 playoffs (2015-16 being the exception), at least one of the four Wild Card winners has advanced to the Conference Championship. They got those playoff jitters out of the way and are settled down to keep this thing going. Based on trends, expect one of the home teams to lose this weekend.
But don’t go too far with the trend. Only once since the realignment season of 2002-03 have three Wild Card winners move on to the Conference Championship (2008-09).
So, which Wild Card team to take? Last week I went used the stat of first time QBs faring poorly in the playoffs. It paid off as I went 4-0 ATS with a Mega Bet win. This week I’ll go with another stat – teams coming off a close win (i.e. two points or less) in the playoffs.
Wild Card teams off a win of two points or less (Dallas, Philadelphia) are 1-8 SU and 4-4-1 ATS in the Divisional round since realignment. It's hard for those teams to rebound both mentally and physically just seven days from an intense win.
But the Cowboys and Eagles are getting a TD or more, that has to count for something right? Not really. In the previous four times this occurred, when the Wild Card winners were getting less than 9 points the next week, they went 0-3-1 ATS.
But that doesn’t mean they are a lock to make it. In 12 of the last 13 playoffs (2015-16 being the exception), at least one of the four Wild Card winners has advanced to the Conference Championship. They got those playoff jitters out of the way and are settled down to keep this thing going. Based on trends, expect one of the home teams to lose this weekend.
But don’t go too far with the trend. Only once since the realignment season of 2002-03 have three Wild Card winners move on to the Conference Championship (2008-09).
So, which Wild Card team to take? Last week I went used the stat of first time QBs faring poorly in the playoffs. It paid off as I went 4-0 ATS with a Mega Bet win. This week I’ll go with another stat – teams coming off a close win (i.e. two points or less) in the playoffs.
Wild Card teams off a win of two points or less (Dallas, Philadelphia) are 1-8 SU and 4-4-1 ATS in the Divisional round since realignment. It's hard for those teams to rebound both mentally and physically just seven days from an intense win.
But the Cowboys and Eagles are getting a TD or more, that has to count for something right? Not really. In the previous four times this occurred, when the Wild Card winners were getting less than 9 points the next week, they went 0-3-1 ATS.

Indianapolis +5.0 @ Kansas City – Two of the better QBs face off today. Patrick Mahomes threw for over 5,000 yards and become only the third QB to throw for 50 TDs. Andrew Luck threw for the second-most touchdowns in a season in his career (39), including an eight-game stretch in which he tossed at least three touchdowns. The 89 combined TDs is the most ever for a playoff game.
The Chiefs had the more potent offense when the had a rushing game to go with Mahomes but the loss of Kareem Hunt has slowed the potent Chiefs attack. They are just 3-2 since releasing their star running back with two of those wins came against the pathetic Raiders. The Chiefs were also out rushed in their last four games and now face a solid Colt rush defense.
The Chiefs had the more potent offense when the had a rushing game to go with Mahomes but the loss of Kareem Hunt has slowed the potent Chiefs attack. They are just 3-2 since releasing their star running back with two of those wins came against the pathetic Raiders. The Chiefs were also out rushed in their last four games and now face a solid Colt rush defense.

A key factor to watch is the Kansas City pass rush versus the Indianapolis pass blocking. As bad as the Chiefs defense was, no other defense in the NFL had more sacks during the regular season than their 52. Meanwhile, no offensive line has fared better in pass protection than the Colts which led the league in fewest sacks given up with 18.
Both tight ends should have success as neither team defends the TEs well. Kelce and Ebron should have great stat lines for fantasy bettors.
History is not exactly on the Chiefs’ side in this matchup. They are 0-4 all-time in playoff games against the Colts, 0-6 in home playoff games over the last 25 years, and Andy Reid struggles in the postseason going 11-13.
I'll go be betting against myself and take the Colts to cover. I'll go with last weeks betting angle of going against QBs playing in their playoff game (Mahomes), Andy Reid's track record in the playoffs and the loss of Hunt and take the Colts and the points.
No quatloos though.
Both tight ends should have success as neither team defends the TEs well. Kelce and Ebron should have great stat lines for fantasy bettors.
History is not exactly on the Chiefs’ side in this matchup. They are 0-4 all-time in playoff games against the Colts, 0-6 in home playoff games over the last 25 years, and Andy Reid struggles in the postseason going 11-13.
I'll go be betting against myself and take the Colts to cover. I'll go with last weeks betting angle of going against QBs playing in their playoff game (Mahomes), Andy Reid's track record in the playoffs and the loss of Hunt and take the Colts and the points.
No quatloos though.

LA Rams -7.0 vs Dallas – While KC and Indy have two of the better QBs playing, the Rams and Cowboys have two of the better RBs playing. The Cowboy’s Ezekiel Elliott led the league in rushing, while the Ram’s Gurley led the league with 21 touchdowns.
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For the Cowboys, they will have to run the ball, grind the clock and rely on their defense. The Rams have allowed a league worst 5.1 yards per carry on the ground.
Last week, Dallas limited Seattle, the NFL's No. 1 rushing offense to just 73 yards on 24 carries, less than half of the Seahawks' seasonal average (160 ypg).
Gurley has been beaten up too. He practiced on Wednesday for the first time since Week 15. He's been dealing with a knee injury and hasn't really looked right for a while. Dallas should be able to contain Gurley.
The Dallas passing game has gotten better since Amari Cooper's arrival although the wide receiver has cooled off after breaking out early. Cooper has just 189 receiving yards over the last four games. Rams DB Aqib Talib should keep Cooper in check.
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For the Cowboys, they will have to run the ball, grind the clock and rely on their defense. The Rams have allowed a league worst 5.1 yards per carry on the ground.
Last week, Dallas limited Seattle, the NFL's No. 1 rushing offense to just 73 yards on 24 carries, less than half of the Seahawks' seasonal average (160 ypg).
Gurley has been beaten up too. He practiced on Wednesday for the first time since Week 15. He's been dealing with a knee injury and hasn't really looked right for a while. Dallas should be able to contain Gurley.
The Dallas passing game has gotten better since Amari Cooper's arrival although the wide receiver has cooled off after breaking out early. Cooper has just 189 receiving yards over the last four games. Rams DB Aqib Talib should keep Cooper in check.

The Rams will look to be more balanced and should have more success throwing the ball. Jared Goff has a lot of weapons at his disposal and the Cowboys pass rush is not nearly as threatening as the Rams. Goff should also be able to exploit a weak Dallas secondary.
I’ll go with this week’s betting angle and fade the Cowboys coming off a tough win. Put me down for a quatloo as I trust Sean McVay much more than Jason Garrett.
I’ll put a quatloo on the over 48.5 too.
I’ll go with this week’s betting angle and fade the Cowboys coming off a tough win. Put me down for a quatloo as I trust Sean McVay much more than Jason Garrett.
I’ll put a quatloo on the over 48.5 too.

LA Chargers +4.0 @ New England - Has age finally caught up with Brady and the Patriots? Overall, Brady’s stats declined across the board this year. His 11 interceptions were the most for him since 2013; the QB rating (97.7) dipped below 100 for the first time since '14 and his five losses were his most as a starter since 2009.
A lot of the problem is he has no one to throw to. Josh Gordon is suspended. Gronkowski can barely move. Chris Hogan isn't very good. The only one who can get open is Julian Edelman. But The Chargers have Desmond King, one of the top slot cornerbacks in the NFL. He'll be able to limit Edelman.
The Patriots problems extend to the defense. At season’s end, Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Samuels, rushed for 142 yards on just 19 carries. Samuels played tight end at NC State. If the Patriots couldn't stop a former tight end from having his career-best game, how are they going to deal with Melvin Gordon?
The Pats are no better against the pass. They have a poor linebacking corps that can't cover in space, and really struggle against tight ends. The Chargers Hunter Henry has been activated and should have a productive game.
A lot of the problem is he has no one to throw to. Josh Gordon is suspended. Gronkowski can barely move. Chris Hogan isn't very good. The only one who can get open is Julian Edelman. But The Chargers have Desmond King, one of the top slot cornerbacks in the NFL. He'll be able to limit Edelman.
The Patriots problems extend to the defense. At season’s end, Pittsburgh’s Jaylen Samuels, rushed for 142 yards on just 19 carries. Samuels played tight end at NC State. If the Patriots couldn't stop a former tight end from having his career-best game, how are they going to deal with Melvin Gordon?
The Pats are no better against the pass. They have a poor linebacking corps that can't cover in space, and really struggle against tight ends. The Chargers Hunter Henry has been activated and should have a productive game.

Fellow HOF in waiting QB Phil River started out like a player of the year candidate throwing for over 200 yards in the first 14 games. But he faded down the stretch falling short of the mark for three straight games. His numbers during that stretch have been anemic: just one touchdown, four picks and just 5.7 yards per attempt. He should return to form, howver, against the anemic Pats pass defense.
Eight - that’s the number of road wins the Chargers have this season in nine attempts after beating the Ravens in Baltimore last week. Los Angeles has knocked off some good teams in hostile environments, including the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers. And their temporary home, at something called the Dignity Health Sports Park, barely draws a crowd making so even their home games seem like they are on the road.
The Pats are overrated and fading. LA likes playing on the road and has enough defense to win this outright. I'll take the points for a Mega Bet.
Eight - that’s the number of road wins the Chargers have this season in nine attempts after beating the Ravens in Baltimore last week. Los Angeles has knocked off some good teams in hostile environments, including the Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers. And their temporary home, at something called the Dignity Health Sports Park, barely draws a crowd making so even their home games seem like they are on the road.
The Pats are overrated and fading. LA likes playing on the road and has enough defense to win this outright. I'll take the points for a Mega Bet.

New Orleans -8.0 vs Philadelphia – 48-7. That was the score in week 11 when the Saints absolutely destroyed the Eagles. The Eagles have pointed to that game as the turning point and it's probably true considering they've won six of seven since then. There are several reasons for this game to be much tighter.
First, Wentz was the QB and was fighting a bad back. He was awful going for 19 for 33 and 156 yards. Foles has played much better since taking over. Second, they get Pro Bowl center Jason Kelce back improving the pass blocking. Wentz was under duress most of the game the last time. Third is the return of LB Jordan Hicks. Like all good linebackers he’s the heart and soul of the defense.. Without Hicks, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingraham combined for 174 yards on the ground. That won’t happen this week.
But the Saints are the still best team in the league. And for a change it goes beyond Brees. The rush defense was #1 overall until the rested their starters in week 17 - only to be eclipsed by Chicago.
First, Wentz was the QB and was fighting a bad back. He was awful going for 19 for 33 and 156 yards. Foles has played much better since taking over. Second, they get Pro Bowl center Jason Kelce back improving the pass blocking. Wentz was under duress most of the game the last time. Third is the return of LB Jordan Hicks. Like all good linebackers he’s the heart and soul of the defense.. Without Hicks, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingraham combined for 174 yards on the ground. That won’t happen this week.
But the Saints are the still best team in the league. And for a change it goes beyond Brees. The rush defense was #1 overall until the rested their starters in week 17 - only to be eclipsed by Chicago.

And Brees is still the man. He posted a league-leading 89.7 Total QBR in home games this season, the second highest since they began tracking the QBR in 2006 (Aaron Rodgers, 90.5 in 2011). Brees spreads the ball around. In the last matchup, Philadelphia focused on shutting down All-Pro wide receiver Michael Thomas. Brees responded by completing passes to seven different players.
All told, 10 different Saints have recorded at least nine catches this season. All 10 are available for Sunday's game.
While the Eagles get some key players back, they are still missing CBs Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby. Reserve CB Sidney Jones is questionable to play on Sunday after missing the last four games, putting even more pressure on safeties Malcolm Jenkins and Corey Graham. Brees will have a field day against a patchwork Eagles secondary.
The last and only time the Saints were the top seed in the playoffs was in 2009. That was also the season they went on to win the Super Bowl. The Saints at home in January with Payton and Brees have never lost.
I’ll stay with this weeks betting angle and take the Saints to cover against a banged up eagles coming off a tough win last week.
Put me down for a quatloo.
Remember the 2019 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 26th at the Westgate SuperBook.
All told, 10 different Saints have recorded at least nine catches this season. All 10 are available for Sunday's game.
While the Eagles get some key players back, they are still missing CBs Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby. Reserve CB Sidney Jones is questionable to play on Sunday after missing the last four games, putting even more pressure on safeties Malcolm Jenkins and Corey Graham. Brees will have a field day against a patchwork Eagles secondary.
The last and only time the Saints were the top seed in the playoffs was in 2009. That was also the season they went on to win the Super Bowl. The Saints at home in January with Payton and Brees have never lost.
I’ll stay with this weeks betting angle and take the Saints to cover against a banged up eagles coming off a tough win last week.
Put me down for a quatloo.
Remember the 2019 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 26th at the Westgate SuperBook.