So far the picking and betting have been easy. Every favorite has not only won but covered. I got a third Mega Bet win with UAB destroying NIU but lost a quatloo when I went with the SDSU upset. Ohio blanked SDSU. BK texted he didn't like my pick just before the game. He was right - as unusual as that is. Still, a profitable bowl season so far.
For the Thursday and Friday I'll take:
For the Thursday and Friday I'll take:
USF's run defense is awful Marshall -2.5 vs South Florida – USF will be playing on their home field and they can use all the help they can get. After starting out 7-0 and getting ranked, they’ve been in a tail spin losing five straight. The Bulls beat just one team that’s going bowling over those first seven games, and all five losses came against strong teams playing football in December and getting those Best Buy gift coupons.
Marshall’s record is nothing to crow about either. They beat exactly one bowl team, fattening up on a whole slew of Conference USA cupcakes.
Both teams know how to win bowls though. USF have been to six bowls since 2008, but under five different coaches. It’s worked as they have gone 5-1.
Marshall is a bowl winning machine, winning their last six – and 10 of the last 11 going back to the 1997 Motor City. Doc Holiday is 5-0 in bowls with the Herd.
USF’s melt down is directly related to their run defense. South Florida brings the ninth-worst run defense, allowing nearly 245 yards on the ground per game. The second half of the season was even worse. They got lit up for 220 yards or more six times in the last seven and getting destroyed for way over 300 in three of those. The Bulls are allowing over five yards per carry.
Marshall’s record is nothing to crow about either. They beat exactly one bowl team, fattening up on a whole slew of Conference USA cupcakes.
Both teams know how to win bowls though. USF have been to six bowls since 2008, but under five different coaches. It’s worked as they have gone 5-1.
Marshall is a bowl winning machine, winning their last six – and 10 of the last 11 going back to the 1997 Motor City. Doc Holiday is 5-0 in bowls with the Herd.
USF’s melt down is directly related to their run defense. South Florida brings the ninth-worst run defense, allowing nearly 245 yards on the ground per game. The second half of the season was even worse. They got lit up for 220 yards or more six times in the last seven and getting destroyed for way over 300 in three of those. The Bulls are allowing over five yards per carry.
While Marshall's is pretty good. Marshall is pretty good against the run – no one has hit 200 yards on this group – allowing fewer than three yards per carry, good for 10th best overall.
The trends favor the Herd. Marshall is 6-0 ATS in its last six bowl games and 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games.
USF is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. Conference USA opponents and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.
I'll go with the Herd's better defense against a floundering Bulls squad for a quatloo.
The trends favor the Herd. Marshall is 6-0 ATS in its last six bowl games and 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games.
USF is 1-4 ATS in its last five games vs. Conference USA opponents and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.
I'll go with the Herd's better defense against a floundering Bulls squad for a quatloo.
Toledo started cranking up the takeaways in the back half of the season Toledo -5.5 vs FIU - It took awhile but Toledo finally kicked the season into high gear winning their last four of five games. The offense was a bit inconsistent but when it was on it was on, scoring 45 points or more seven times – winning all seven games. The Rockets averaged over 41 PPG finishing 11th overall.
The defense joined the fun too. Over the second half of the year, it led the MAC in preventing third down conversions and came up with 13 of its 17 takeaways in its final six games.
An emphasis of getting into the backfield helped. Toledo cranked up a whopping 87 tackles for loss from 23 players. And they came up with four sacks or more in five of the last seven games.
But they were gashed just as often. Ultimately the Rockets finished 94th in YPG allowed and let up 30.2 PPG (84th). It was feast or famine with its aggressive defense.
The aggressiveness was noticed by the refs too. Toledo hasn’t seen a penalty it didn’t like to commit, getting flagged about eight times a game for 73 yards an outing.
The Golden Panther offense is balanced when it has to be, the defense is fantastic at taking the ball away, and overall this is a solid team. The Panthers rolled to an 8-3 start before suffering a tough loss to Marshall to get knocked out of the Conference USA title chase.
The offense just doesn’t give the ball away. FIU was 12th in the nation in fewest turnovers, giving it up just 12 times, and dominating the turnover margin, going a +12 over the last 10 games.
The defense joined the fun too. Over the second half of the year, it led the MAC in preventing third down conversions and came up with 13 of its 17 takeaways in its final six games.
An emphasis of getting into the backfield helped. Toledo cranked up a whopping 87 tackles for loss from 23 players. And they came up with four sacks or more in five of the last seven games.
But they were gashed just as often. Ultimately the Rockets finished 94th in YPG allowed and let up 30.2 PPG (84th). It was feast or famine with its aggressive defense.
The aggressiveness was noticed by the refs too. Toledo hasn’t seen a penalty it didn’t like to commit, getting flagged about eight times a game for 73 yards an outing.
The Golden Panther offense is balanced when it has to be, the defense is fantastic at taking the ball away, and overall this is a solid team. The Panthers rolled to an 8-3 start before suffering a tough loss to Marshall to get knocked out of the Conference USA title chase.
The offense just doesn’t give the ball away. FIU was 12th in the nation in fewest turnovers, giving it up just 12 times, and dominating the turnover margin, going a +12 over the last 10 games.
FIU struggled against teams with winning records The Rockets may have generated 34 sacks but will be facing an offensive line that has surrendered just 10 all year.
It was a great season for FIU for a reason – the strength of schedule was the easiest in college football. FIU’s offense looked strong, but it also did most of its work against a slew of mediocre teams. The O didn’t roll against the good defenses on the slate.
The Golden Panthers run defense got beat up by teams that could grind it out, and that’s what Toledo will do, hammering away with its deep backfield against a D that won’t get into the backfield.
The betting trends for FIU are mixed. They are 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record and 4-1ATS their last 5 overall. Yet they are 0-5-1 ATS in neutral site games and 0-4-1 ATS vs the MAC.
Toledo's record is mixed too. They are 8-3 ATS on grass yet 2-5 ATS outside the MAC and 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record.
I’ll take the Rocket's better offense and a defense that will make a couple key takeaways to cover for another Mega Bet.
It was a great season for FIU for a reason – the strength of schedule was the easiest in college football. FIU’s offense looked strong, but it also did most of its work against a slew of mediocre teams. The O didn’t roll against the good defenses on the slate.
The Golden Panthers run defense got beat up by teams that could grind it out, and that’s what Toledo will do, hammering away with its deep backfield against a D that won’t get into the backfield.
The betting trends for FIU are mixed. They are 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record and 4-1ATS their last 5 overall. Yet they are 0-5-1 ATS in neutral site games and 0-4-1 ATS vs the MAC.
Toledo's record is mixed too. They are 8-3 ATS on grass yet 2-5 ATS outside the MAC and 2-5 ATS against teams with a winning record.
I’ll take the Rocket's better offense and a defense that will make a couple key takeaways to cover for another Mega Bet.
Two true freshmen square off, Kaleb Eleby for Western vs Western Michigan +12.0 vs BYU - The Broncos and Cougars have quite a few similarities. Both teams have had closes losses and big wins this season. And both squads also had to make quarterback changes midseason but for different reasons.
It’s not often you see two teams square off with two true freshmen in a college game let alone a bowl game, but that’s what the Famous Potato Bowl has to offer.
Western Michigan had to turn to Kaleb Eleby after Jon Wassink went down with a foot injury. In four games (three starts), Eleby has posted solid numbers (917 passing yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 64.5 percent completion rate) but the Broncos are just 1-2 with him as a starter.
For BYU, it wasn’t injury that forced the change, it was lack of production by Tanner Mangum. Zach Wilson got promoted halfway through the season. In his six starts, Wilson accounted for 10 total touchdowns (8 passing, 2 rushing) with just three interceptions while leading the Cougars to a 3-3 record.
Both teams have had their ups and downs. The Broncos, started the season losing to Syracuse and Michigan, then reeled off six straight wins before dropping three in a row before closing out with a 28-21 upset victory over Northern Illinois.
The Cougars, started 3-1 – including road wins over Arizona and over then-No. 6 Wisconsin, but have lost five of eight games since.
It’s not often you see two teams square off with two true freshmen in a college game let alone a bowl game, but that’s what the Famous Potato Bowl has to offer.
Western Michigan had to turn to Kaleb Eleby after Jon Wassink went down with a foot injury. In four games (three starts), Eleby has posted solid numbers (917 passing yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 64.5 percent completion rate) but the Broncos are just 1-2 with him as a starter.
For BYU, it wasn’t injury that forced the change, it was lack of production by Tanner Mangum. Zach Wilson got promoted halfway through the season. In his six starts, Wilson accounted for 10 total touchdowns (8 passing, 2 rushing) with just three interceptions while leading the Cougars to a 3-3 record.
Both teams have had their ups and downs. The Broncos, started the season losing to Syracuse and Michigan, then reeled off six straight wins before dropping three in a row before closing out with a 28-21 upset victory over Northern Illinois.
The Cougars, started 3-1 – including road wins over Arizona and over then-No. 6 Wisconsin, but have lost five of eight games since.
Zach Wilson for BYU BYU’s run defense has been stout, allowing under four yards per carry and only giving up 200 yards or more against Wisconsin and Utah State. WMU can throw, but it’s at its best when it’s able to pound away with the great backfield. That’s going to be a problem. The BYU secondary hasn’t been torched on a regular basis, allowing just three touchdowns over the final five games.
BYU has been inconsistent on offense this year, which has contributed to their struggles despite owning a top-20 defense.
Western has been much better with the ball. The offense is 29th in YPD (448.8) and averaged 33.2 PPG (32nd).
BYU has the better betting trends. The Cougars are on a 4 game cover streak and 10-4 ATS overall. That said they are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. And 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
Western is 2-6 ATS over the last 8 games and 2-5 outside the MAC.
BYU's offense does not have enough firepower to win by double digits. I'll take Western and the points for a quatloo.
BYU has been inconsistent on offense this year, which has contributed to their struggles despite owning a top-20 defense.
Western has been much better with the ball. The offense is 29th in YPD (448.8) and averaged 33.2 PPG (32nd).
BYU has the better betting trends. The Cougars are on a 4 game cover streak and 10-4 ATS overall. That said they are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. And 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
Western is 2-6 ATS over the last 8 games and 2-5 outside the MAC.
BYU's offense does not have enough firepower to win by double digits. I'll take Western and the points for a quatloo.
