It’s the Happiest Time of the Year! You can still sing that can’t you?
I mean the PC police are going after one of my favorites – Baby it’s Cold Outside.
Screw them. Here’s one of my favorite renditions. Willie Nelson and Norah Jones. Bring it on PC police.
I mean the PC police are going after one of my favorites – Baby it’s Cold Outside.
Screw them. Here’s one of my favorite renditions. Willie Nelson and Norah Jones. Bring it on PC police.

And I’m still watching Rudolph too. Some things really are a man’s job. Good thing Mrs. Doofus usually takes care of those.
I take care of watching college football during one of my favorite times of the year – Bowl Season!!
It’s the time of the year when powerhouse programs that would never schedule each other during the regular season are forced to square off. How about Georgia vs Texas or Washington vs Ohio State.
And, of course, there are a ton of interesting other match ups too like the (still) undefeated Black Knights of UCF playing another SEC powerhouse LSU. Or scUM playing Flordia (I wish it had been vs Georgia but I’ll take what I can get), Oklahoma State taking on Missouri and pesky Iowa State vs the Pirate's Washington State Cougars.
Paul Johnson will be coaching his last game versus Minnesota. Lots of great story lines in the making.
I’m a fanatic so most of you may not care but I’m looking forward to seeing North Texas playing Utah State and the diametrically opposed offensive styles of Houston versus Army.
I take care of watching college football during one of my favorite times of the year – Bowl Season!!
It’s the time of the year when powerhouse programs that would never schedule each other during the regular season are forced to square off. How about Georgia vs Texas or Washington vs Ohio State.
And, of course, there are a ton of interesting other match ups too like the (still) undefeated Black Knights of UCF playing another SEC powerhouse LSU. Or scUM playing Flordia (I wish it had been vs Georgia but I’ll take what I can get), Oklahoma State taking on Missouri and pesky Iowa State vs the Pirate's Washington State Cougars.
Paul Johnson will be coaching his last game versus Minnesota. Lots of great story lines in the making.
I’m a fanatic so most of you may not care but I’m looking forward to seeing North Texas playing Utah State and the diametrically opposed offensive styles of Houston versus Army.

Now, nothing gets you interest going in the Bowl Season like entering a Confidence Pool. Pick all 40 games with putting the most points on your slam dunk, the sun would have to come up in the west for them to lose, favorite team. All the way down to 1 point on your upset special but you really doubt it.
Now all of a sudden you’re watching Eastern Michigan vs Georgia Southern (great matchup by the way) because you have 34 points on the Hurons. Love it!
First a couple of rules:
Rule 1 - Always pick Michigan State. I never put a lot of points on them though. I get too excited about the game to add the stress of putting a lot of points on them too
Rule 2- Always pick against Michigan. Feel free to put as many points on their foes as you like.
Some other things to considr are:
Now all of a sudden you’re watching Eastern Michigan vs Georgia Southern (great matchup by the way) because you have 34 points on the Hurons. Love it!
First a couple of rules:
Rule 1 - Always pick Michigan State. I never put a lot of points on them though. I get too excited about the game to add the stress of putting a lot of points on them too
Rule 2- Always pick against Michigan. Feel free to put as many points on their foes as you like.
Some other things to considr are:

Change in Coaches
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also, some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. This year it has been pretty calm but there is still time. Here’s the list so far
Appalachian State – Scott Satterfield will be taking his talents to Louisville
Georgia Tech – Paul Johnson is retiring after the Quick Lane Bowl. Bees should be fired up
Temple – Paul will be replaced by the Owls' Geoff Collins
Ohio State – Urban is “retiring” too - after the Rose Bowl.
Utah State – Matt Wells is off to Texas Tech
Bowl season is also in the middle of the Coaching Carousel. Good middle weight teams are losing their coaches to the heavy weights. Also, some heavy weights didn't perform up to expectations while still making a bowl. This year it has been pretty calm but there is still time. Here’s the list so far
Appalachian State – Scott Satterfield will be taking his talents to Louisville
Georgia Tech – Paul Johnson is retiring after the Quick Lane Bowl. Bees should be fired up
Temple – Paul will be replaced by the Owls' Geoff Collins
Ohio State – Urban is “retiring” too - after the Rose Bowl.
Utah State – Matt Wells is off to Texas Tech
Location
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? Five teams will soon find out
South Florida - will play on its home field in the Bad Boy Mowers Bowl
Houston - plays in Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl
Hawaii – plays on its home field in the eponymous bowl. Spartans cringe at the thought
Baylor – plays in Houston in the Academy Sports Bowl
Troy – And the real Trojans play in their backyard in Alabama
Last year, teams playing in their home state went 3-2 the same as in 2016. Doesn’t appear to be much of an advantage.
Does playing in your home state get you a home field advantage? Five teams will soon find out
South Florida - will play on its home field in the Bad Boy Mowers Bowl
Houston - plays in Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl
Hawaii – plays on its home field in the eponymous bowl. Spartans cringe at the thought
Baylor – plays in Houston in the Academy Sports Bowl
Troy – And the real Trojans play in their backyard in Alabama
Last year, teams playing in their home state went 3-2 the same as in 2016. Doesn’t appear to be much of an advantage.

A recent and growing phenomenon is players skipping bowl games to avoid the risk of injuring themselves prior to the NFL draft.
Here are some key players that have announced that they will leave their teams high and dry
Arizona State – N’Keal Harry - WR
Houston – Ed Oliver - DT
Minnesota – Donnell Greene - OL
West Virginia – Will Grier – QB
West Virginia – Yodney Cajuste – OL
Michigan – Rashan Gary – DT
Oklahoma State – Justice Hill – RB
NC State – Germaine Pratt – LB
NC State – Kelvin Harmon – WR
Iowa – Noah Fant – TE
LSU – Greedy William - CB
Grier is the most concerning. West Virginia was a 7 point favorite. When word got out the line dropped to WVU -1.5. His back up has thrown a total of 10 career passes.
Here are some key players that have announced that they will leave their teams high and dry
Arizona State – N’Keal Harry - WR
Houston – Ed Oliver - DT
Minnesota – Donnell Greene - OL
West Virginia – Will Grier – QB
West Virginia – Yodney Cajuste – OL
Michigan – Rashan Gary – DT
Oklahoma State – Justice Hill – RB
NC State – Germaine Pratt – LB
NC State – Kelvin Harmon – WR
Iowa – Noah Fant – TE
LSU – Greedy William - CB
Grier is the most concerning. West Virginia was a 7 point favorite. When word got out the line dropped to WVU -1.5. His back up has thrown a total of 10 career passes.
So how to pick all 40 games and allocate 820 points?
You can use the point spreads. If you allocated the most points based on the largest point spread it would look like this
You can use the point spreads. If you allocated the most points based on the largest point spread it would look like this
But favorites don't always win, even large favorites. Here is how favorites fared since 2011
Double digit favorites lose nearly 25% of the time.
There are other metrics including the Sagarin rating and the S&P+ rating, for ranking teams.
Using each, the rankings would go as follows (I'll spare you the actual numbers but if you are interested they are in the attached Bettors Guide ):
There are other metrics including the Sagarin rating and the S&P+ rating, for ranking teams.
Using each, the rankings would go as follows (I'll spare you the actual numbers but if you are interested they are in the attached Bettors Guide ):
Averaging the spread and the metrics gives the following
Not bad.
It even follows rule 1 - pick State but don't put too many points on them.
But it does run afoul of rule 2 - never pick Michigan. Not only that but it puts a ton of points on the Walverines.
It even follows rule 1 - pick State but don't put too many points on them.
But it does run afoul of rule 2 - never pick Michigan. Not only that but it puts a ton of points on the Walverines.
Another factor I like to consider is keeping my powder dry. By that I mean putting more points on teams playing later.
Typically, pools keep track of potential points i.e. if you won the rest of the games how would you place. I like to have potential points.
And I like to have an entry so I can root for my favorite teams.
So after watching way too much football and taking everything into consideration - here is my picks. I'll take my teams in upsets, allocate points to the back and mix it up a little with some of the coin flip games.
Typically, pools keep track of potential points i.e. if you won the rest of the games how would you place. I like to have potential points.
And I like to have an entry so I can root for my favorite teams.
So after watching way too much football and taking everything into consideration - here is my picks. I'll take my teams in upsets, allocate points to the back and mix it up a little with some of the coin flip games.
Last year they came in pretty darn good. I came in 8th out of 129. Too bad the top 6 won the pot. Maybe this year!
And for all the bowls, spreads, picks and much much more here is the Bettors Guide 2018 Bowl Edition
And for all the bowls, spreads, picks and much much more here is the Bettors Guide 2018 Bowl Edition

2018_bettors_guide_bowl_edition.xlsx |
Good Luck
And remember - the 2019 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 26th at the Westgate SuperBook
And remember - the 2019 GO JUMBO trip is Oct 26th at the Westgate SuperBook