
It’s the last week of practice before it goes all too real next week in Vegas Baby! GO JUMBO!!
Time for the dress rehearsal.
For Act One - Let’s take a look at this week’s biggest games starting with
Bama -21.5 vs LSU - The sportsbooks just can’t get this spread high enough. It's as big as the beat down the Tide put on the Tigers in the 2011 championship game.
According to Dave Mason, Brand Manager for BetOnLine.ag “It seems like just about every year, we get killed on ‘Bama covering the number versus LSU,” Not only is it always one of the biggest-bet regular-season games of the year, but the public just about always pounds the Tide, who have a four-game covering streak versus the Tigers. “
The Tide is destroying everything in their path and are a little cheesed about being ranked 2nd to Georgia in the inaugural CFP rankings. The spread seems high to me so I’ll take LSU but no quatloos. Don’t want to get in the way of “The Process”
Time for the dress rehearsal.
For Act One - Let’s take a look at this week’s biggest games starting with
Bama -21.5 vs LSU - The sportsbooks just can’t get this spread high enough. It's as big as the beat down the Tide put on the Tigers in the 2011 championship game.
According to Dave Mason, Brand Manager for BetOnLine.ag “It seems like just about every year, we get killed on ‘Bama covering the number versus LSU,” Not only is it always one of the biggest-bet regular-season games of the year, but the public just about always pounds the Tide, who have a four-game covering streak versus the Tigers. “
The Tide is destroying everything in their path and are a little cheesed about being ranked 2nd to Georgia in the inaugural CFP rankings. The spread seems high to me so I’ll take LSU but no quatloos. Don’t want to get in the way of “The Process”

Oklahoma State -2.5 vs Oklahoma – It’s Bedlam I tell ya, pure bedlam. Earlier in the year this was looking like it would be a play in game for the playoffs. Now, not so much. The loser is out and the winner will need help. These two teams are twins of each other. Great passing games led by two of the better QBs across our fruited plain. Backed by good not great running games and spotty defenses.
It’s a coin flip game. If we were in Vegas I would ask help from the Big Flippy. With no such help asked for nor forthcoming, I’ll take the Pistol Pete at home. I’ll put a quatloo on it just to make it fun.
Also in the Big 12
TCU -7.0 vs Texas – I was about to take TCU due to a situational analysis (see some more below). TCU is coming off a gut wrenching upset loss to Iowa State last week and returns home.
But then I ran across this little factoid. Going back to his days as an Ohio State Coordinator, Texas HC Tom Herman is 14-0 ATS when the underdog. He’s 3-0 this year. I’m not getting in front of that trend. I’ll take Texas but no quatloos.
It’s a coin flip game. If we were in Vegas I would ask help from the Big Flippy. With no such help asked for nor forthcoming, I’ll take the Pistol Pete at home. I’ll put a quatloo on it just to make it fun.
Also in the Big 12
TCU -7.0 vs Texas – I was about to take TCU due to a situational analysis (see some more below). TCU is coming off a gut wrenching upset loss to Iowa State last week and returns home.
But then I ran across this little factoid. Going back to his days as an Ohio State Coordinator, Texas HC Tom Herman is 14-0 ATS when the underdog. He’s 3-0 this year. I’m not getting in front of that trend. I’ll take Texas but no quatloos.
In the ACC, there’s two games in what is really a semi finals bracket for the championship. In the Atlantic it’s
Clemson -7.5 @ NC State - NC State played a good defense last week and got stuffed. Now they are about to face a better one. Clemson leads the nation in sacks and is about to make life miserable for QB Ryan Finley.
Clemson’s only loss of the season came against Syracuse, after starting quarterback Kelly Bryant was knocked out of the game with a concussion just before halftime. He’s back and healthy. NC State will be fired up in front of the home crowd but it won’t be enough.
Clemson has won eight straight against ranked opponents. Make it nine, I’ll take the Tigers for a Mega Bet.
On the other side, in the Coastal it’s
Va Tech -2.5 @ Miami (FL) - No need for analytics. I came across this quote from Ed Salmons, the Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker “Miami is an accident waiting to happen, and it’s not surprising that Virginia Tech is favored. I think Virginia Tech is going to kill ‘em. Miami is a complete fraud.”
If the guy who sets our lines says take Va Tech that’s what I will do. Put me down for a Mini Mega. I happen to agree with Ed.
Clemson -7.5 @ NC State - NC State played a good defense last week and got stuffed. Now they are about to face a better one. Clemson leads the nation in sacks and is about to make life miserable for QB Ryan Finley.
Clemson’s only loss of the season came against Syracuse, after starting quarterback Kelly Bryant was knocked out of the game with a concussion just before halftime. He’s back and healthy. NC State will be fired up in front of the home crowd but it won’t be enough.
Clemson has won eight straight against ranked opponents. Make it nine, I’ll take the Tigers for a Mega Bet.
On the other side, in the Coastal it’s
Va Tech -2.5 @ Miami (FL) - No need for analytics. I came across this quote from Ed Salmons, the Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker “Miami is an accident waiting to happen, and it’s not surprising that Virginia Tech is favored. I think Virginia Tech is going to kill ‘em. Miami is a complete fraud.”
If the guy who sets our lines says take Va Tech that’s what I will do. Put me down for a Mini Mega. I happen to agree with Ed.

For Act !! lets take a look at situational analyses - there are six teams coming off large upsets last week.
1) Marshall lost to FIU as a 17.0 favorite – The Herd face off against the Florida Atlantic and Fighting Kiffens getting 7.5 on the road. The spread is about right. I’ll pass
2) USF lost to Houston as an 11.0 point favorite – South Florida travels to East Hartford to play UConn as 23.5 point favorites. I’ll take UConn but due to the Big Al rule, no quatloos.
3) TCU lost to Iowa State as a 6.5 point favorite – see above for the pick
4) Fresno State lost to UNLV as a 21.0 point favorite – Now were talking. The Bulldogs host BYU coming off their only win of the year as 14.5 point favorites. FSU is going to come in angry and destroy a bad BYU team. I’ll make it the second Mega Bet
5) Colorado State lost to Air Force as a 10.0 point favorite – The Rams travel to Wyoming to play a resurgent Cowboy team. Wyoming may have a good QB in Josh Allen but that’s about it. That said, the Cowboys do seem to be hitting a groove and CSU hasn’t beaten anyone with a pulse. I’ll pass
6) Southern Miss lost to UAB as a 12.0 point favorite. USM was probably looking ahead to this week’s game at Tennessee. The spread is the Vols giving 6.5. Sounds about right. I’ll take a desperate Tennessee for a quatloo.
1) Marshall lost to FIU as a 17.0 favorite – The Herd face off against the Florida Atlantic and Fighting Kiffens getting 7.5 on the road. The spread is about right. I’ll pass
2) USF lost to Houston as an 11.0 point favorite – South Florida travels to East Hartford to play UConn as 23.5 point favorites. I’ll take UConn but due to the Big Al rule, no quatloos.
3) TCU lost to Iowa State as a 6.5 point favorite – see above for the pick
4) Fresno State lost to UNLV as a 21.0 point favorite – Now were talking. The Bulldogs host BYU coming off their only win of the year as 14.5 point favorites. FSU is going to come in angry and destroy a bad BYU team. I’ll make it the second Mega Bet
5) Colorado State lost to Air Force as a 10.0 point favorite – The Rams travel to Wyoming to play a resurgent Cowboy team. Wyoming may have a good QB in Josh Allen but that’s about it. That said, the Cowboys do seem to be hitting a groove and CSU hasn’t beaten anyone with a pulse. I’ll pass
6) Southern Miss lost to UAB as a 12.0 point favorite. USM was probably looking ahead to this week’s game at Tennessee. The spread is the Vols giving 6.5. Sounds about right. I’ll take a desperate Tennessee for a quatloo.

And for the final Act here are 3 more Mini Megas, the Point Whore Parlay and an Over/Under Parlay.
UAB - 10.5 vs Rice - Only a couple of years after taking a redshirt season, the Blazers are playing some decent ball. They've won 3 of their last 4 including wins over La Tech, Southern Miss and Middle Tenn State. Rice stinks worse than Pete's gas after some McRibs. UAB rolls easily at home
Carolina +1.5 vs Atlanta - the Falcons offense continues to degrade under Steve Sarkisian. They'll have a difficult time now that Luke Kuechly is back. The Panthers are 5-1 when he's healthy. I'll take a rebounding Carolina at home getting points no less over the fading Dirty Birds
Cincinnati +4.5 @ Jacksonville - Blake Bortles should never be favored against any team that can play defense. Cincinnati can play a little D. This should be a low scoring game. I'll take the over FG points.
For the Point Whore Parlay I'll go with:
Idaho +17.5 @ Troy
UMass +28.0 @ Mississippi State
South Carolina +24.0 @ Tennessee
And I'll try an Over/Under Parlay with
Missouri@ Florida Under 61.5
South Carolina @ Georgia Over 44.5
Clemson @ NC State Under 51.0
And here is your playbill with all the actors, character, times and much much more here is the 2017 Week 10 Bettors Guide
UAB - 10.5 vs Rice - Only a couple of years after taking a redshirt season, the Blazers are playing some decent ball. They've won 3 of their last 4 including wins over La Tech, Southern Miss and Middle Tenn State. Rice stinks worse than Pete's gas after some McRibs. UAB rolls easily at home
Carolina +1.5 vs Atlanta - the Falcons offense continues to degrade under Steve Sarkisian. They'll have a difficult time now that Luke Kuechly is back. The Panthers are 5-1 when he's healthy. I'll take a rebounding Carolina at home getting points no less over the fading Dirty Birds
Cincinnati +4.5 @ Jacksonville - Blake Bortles should never be favored against any team that can play defense. Cincinnati can play a little D. This should be a low scoring game. I'll take the over FG points.
For the Point Whore Parlay I'll go with:
Idaho +17.5 @ Troy
UMass +28.0 @ Mississippi State
South Carolina +24.0 @ Tennessee
And I'll try an Over/Under Parlay with
Missouri@ Florida Under 61.5
South Carolina @ Georgia Over 44.5
Clemson @ NC State Under 51.0
And here is your playbill with all the actors, character, times and much much more here is the 2017 Week 10 Bettors Guide

2017 Week 10 Bettors Guide.xlsx |

And how about this for the Encore
Picks from the Sheriff, The Big Flippy and The Sax Man
Arizona/USC (OVER 74). The Sheriff was glad to see that the Doofus climbed onboard the Khalil Tate bandwagon, and the two of them are going to ride that train together as Khalil gets another OVER for the Sheriff this week against the Condoms. Should be lots of points at the Collie on Saturday night.
Washington State (-2.5) vs Stanford. The only thing the Sheriff needs to know about this game is the location: Pullman, WA. The Cougs are a juggernaut at home whereas the Cardinal were LUCKY to escape with a 15-14 win at OSU last Thursday. Keller Chryst does not put fear into the heart of any PAC-12 secondary, and Stanford will be hard pressed to score any points with that guy under center. Wazzu will bounce back with a big win at home after getting crushed by Khalil Tate and the Wildcats last week.
Arizona State (-4.5) vs Colorado. Here’s another team that is looking to bounce back after a tough loss, but the Buffs are not the Condoms and ASU will win this game easily in the Desert.
The Big Flippy is a little above about 50% this year. He hopes to trend back to the mean with these picks:
Wisconsin -12.5 @ Indiana
UMass +28.0 @ Mississippi State
Florida +3.0 @ Missouri
Kansas State +3.0 @ Texas Tech
Kansas +7.5 vs Baylor
Purdon’t -14.0 vs Illinois
Georgia Southern +4.0 vs Georgia State
And The Sax Man has
The theme to this weeks picks is not overthinking. With that in mind, here are the Saxman's week 9/10 picks.
Georgia State (-4) over Georgia Southern: Georgia State is riding a two game win streak in this series against a winless Eagles team that fired their coach.
Oklahoma (+1) over OK State: This is the most lopsided P5 rivalry for a reason. OK wins on the road in Bedlam like they always do.
Panthers (+2) over Falcons: Does anyone really trust the Falcons to cover anything? Especially on the road? Hoping for a reverse jinx on this one, but Panthers win straight up at home.
See you next week
Picks from the Sheriff, The Big Flippy and The Sax Man
Arizona/USC (OVER 74). The Sheriff was glad to see that the Doofus climbed onboard the Khalil Tate bandwagon, and the two of them are going to ride that train together as Khalil gets another OVER for the Sheriff this week against the Condoms. Should be lots of points at the Collie on Saturday night.
Washington State (-2.5) vs Stanford. The only thing the Sheriff needs to know about this game is the location: Pullman, WA. The Cougs are a juggernaut at home whereas the Cardinal were LUCKY to escape with a 15-14 win at OSU last Thursday. Keller Chryst does not put fear into the heart of any PAC-12 secondary, and Stanford will be hard pressed to score any points with that guy under center. Wazzu will bounce back with a big win at home after getting crushed by Khalil Tate and the Wildcats last week.
Arizona State (-4.5) vs Colorado. Here’s another team that is looking to bounce back after a tough loss, but the Buffs are not the Condoms and ASU will win this game easily in the Desert.
The Big Flippy is a little above about 50% this year. He hopes to trend back to the mean with these picks:
Wisconsin -12.5 @ Indiana
UMass +28.0 @ Mississippi State
Florida +3.0 @ Missouri
Kansas State +3.0 @ Texas Tech
Kansas +7.5 vs Baylor
Purdon’t -14.0 vs Illinois
Georgia Southern +4.0 vs Georgia State
And The Sax Man has
The theme to this weeks picks is not overthinking. With that in mind, here are the Saxman's week 9/10 picks.
Georgia State (-4) over Georgia Southern: Georgia State is riding a two game win streak in this series against a winless Eagles team that fired their coach.
Oklahoma (+1) over OK State: This is the most lopsided P5 rivalry for a reason. OK wins on the road in Bedlam like they always do.
Panthers (+2) over Falcons: Does anyone really trust the Falcons to cover anything? Especially on the road? Hoping for a reverse jinx on this one, but Panthers win straight up at home.
See you next week