Wedding bells will be ringing for the Big Guy. Let the bliss begin It’s a big weekend this weekend. And I’m not talking about the start of the NFL playoffs. Those happen every year. No, I’m talking about the big Guy getting married. A time for the Doofus and the boys to don their tuxes, go to church and welcome Dr. Big Gal to the family. It’s going to be a great time.
That’s not to say during the ceremony, we won’t be taking a few glances at the scores. And the reception will have some TVs in the kids room. I’ll be sure to want to check in on the “kids” during dinner.
But before I get into the predictions for the playoffs, Johnny E was hoping for some insight as to why the Big Ten went a perfect 7-1 in the bowls. Perfect since the only loss was Michigan.
That’s not to say during the ceremony, we won’t be taking a few glances at the scores. And the reception will have some TVs in the kids room. I’ll be sure to want to check in on the “kids” during dinner.
But before I get into the predictions for the playoffs, Johnny E was hoping for some insight as to why the Big Ten went a perfect 7-1 in the bowls. Perfect since the only loss was Michigan.
The way the Spartan defense was playing, wouldn't have mattered if Falk played. And they are pretty much all coming back Well, it starts with Ohio State not getting into the playoffs. With the Bucknuts dropping down into the bowls, it forced the rest of the Big Ten teams down into lower bowls such that they were favorites in seven of the eight games. The lone exception was Purdue being a 3 point dog to Arizona.
State was a 2.5 point pup until Luke Falk was scratched and the line moved to State being favored by 2.5. Not sure if Falks’s absence made a difference as MSU’s defense was fantastic. The Spartans won going away.
So going 7-1 while being favored 7 to 1? Sounds about right. It’s all about the matchups and the Big Ten’s slate was teed up nicely.
And the Bog Ten played to their talent level too. There were no let downs except for scUM and I'm not sure that was all that much of a let down. That was more just bad coaching.
Here’s an interesting stat I came across regarding the NFL
Back in week 6, the underdogs went 10-4 against the spread, improving NFL dogs to 53-36-1 ATS That included a 9-3 ATS run for road dogs in Week 6 and a 37-22-1 ATS (63 percent) mark for visitors getting the points
State was a 2.5 point pup until Luke Falk was scratched and the line moved to State being favored by 2.5. Not sure if Falks’s absence made a difference as MSU’s defense was fantastic. The Spartans won going away.
So going 7-1 while being favored 7 to 1? Sounds about right. It’s all about the matchups and the Big Ten’s slate was teed up nicely.
And the Bog Ten played to their talent level too. There were no let downs except for scUM and I'm not sure that was all that much of a let down. That was more just bad coaching.
Here’s an interesting stat I came across regarding the NFL
Back in week 6, the underdogs went 10-4 against the spread, improving NFL dogs to 53-36-1 ATS That included a 9-3 ATS run for road dogs in Week 6 and a 37-22-1 ATS (63 percent) mark for visitors getting the points
Then week 7 happened. From Week 7 on, NFL underdogs flopped like Duke basketball players. NFL betting favorites, which had covered just over 40 percent of the time in first six weeks, closed the season on a 96-56-7 ATS run – a 63 percent winning clip for the chalk. And road underdogs dropped to 30-60-3 ATS (33 percent) to close out the 2017 campaign. A tale of two betting seasons.
So what will I do with the trend strongly favoring the favorites? Go with the underdogs in three of four games of course.
So what will I do with the trend strongly favoring the favorites? Go with the underdogs in three of four games of course.
Tennessee +8.5 @ Kansas City – These two teams flipped the script after Thanksgiving. Coming into December Kansas City had lost six of seven games while Tennessee had won four straight. .
Then, during the happiest time of the year, Kansas City went on a four game win streak while Tennessee lost three straight. The Titans needed an interception with 10 seconds to go in their final game to clinch the final AFC playoff spot.
On offense, KC will struggle to establish the run. The Titans have one of the top units against ground attacks. They've surrendered just one 100-yard rushing performance since Week 4, and that was to Todd Gurley and his superb offensive line.
Kareem Hunt, while talented, is no Gurley, and the Chiefs offensive line will struggle to win in the trenches. The Titans will be able to handle Hunt.
But KC will get the passing attack going. The Titans are much weaker against the pass and Alex Smith is no longer Check Down Charlie. He will beat the Titan secondary deep a few times to Tyreek Hill
The Titans also struggle against tight ends. Travis Kelce should have a good day.
Tennessee will counter by bringing pressure with Brian Orakpo and Jurrell Casey. Both of whom have favorable matchups in the trenches.
The Chiefs are not good against the run ranking 25th overall. Tennessee loves doing nothing more than pounding the rock. But DeMarco Murray is out leaving the workload to the plodding Derrick Henry. Fortunately, Marcus Mariota has been more mobile recently than he was earlier in the year when he was injured.
KC’s secondary is suspect too meaning Mariota should get some shots to Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews. And Mariota is deadly when he gets into the red zone. He has 39 TDs with no picks over the last three years.
Kansas City has great home field advantage until they get into the post season. The haven’t won at Arrowhead in the playoffs in 24 years.
Kansas City is playing at a much higher level but Tennessee doesn’t get blown out. During their late losing streak they lost by 5,2 and 4 points. I’ll take the Titans with a late score to get the back door cover. No quatloos though. I took Kansas City to win the AFC back on the Go Jumbo weekend. The payoff on the Patriots was pretty paltry – no fun in that.
Then, during the happiest time of the year, Kansas City went on a four game win streak while Tennessee lost three straight. The Titans needed an interception with 10 seconds to go in their final game to clinch the final AFC playoff spot.
On offense, KC will struggle to establish the run. The Titans have one of the top units against ground attacks. They've surrendered just one 100-yard rushing performance since Week 4, and that was to Todd Gurley and his superb offensive line.
Kareem Hunt, while talented, is no Gurley, and the Chiefs offensive line will struggle to win in the trenches. The Titans will be able to handle Hunt.
But KC will get the passing attack going. The Titans are much weaker against the pass and Alex Smith is no longer Check Down Charlie. He will beat the Titan secondary deep a few times to Tyreek Hill
The Titans also struggle against tight ends. Travis Kelce should have a good day.
Tennessee will counter by bringing pressure with Brian Orakpo and Jurrell Casey. Both of whom have favorable matchups in the trenches.
The Chiefs are not good against the run ranking 25th overall. Tennessee loves doing nothing more than pounding the rock. But DeMarco Murray is out leaving the workload to the plodding Derrick Henry. Fortunately, Marcus Mariota has been more mobile recently than he was earlier in the year when he was injured.
KC’s secondary is suspect too meaning Mariota should get some shots to Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews. And Mariota is deadly when he gets into the red zone. He has 39 TDs with no picks over the last three years.
Kansas City has great home field advantage until they get into the post season. The haven’t won at Arrowhead in the playoffs in 24 years.
Kansas City is playing at a much higher level but Tennessee doesn’t get blown out. During their late losing streak they lost by 5,2 and 4 points. I’ll take the Titans with a late score to get the back door cover. No quatloos though. I took Kansas City to win the AFC back on the Go Jumbo weekend. The payoff on the Patriots was pretty paltry – no fun in that.
Todd Gurley's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will put pressure on the Falcon's LB corp. Atlanta +6.5 @ LA Rams –Last year it was the Falcons who were the highest scoring team in the league. They made it to the Super Bowl before losing in an all time epic choke. This year the Rams are the highest scoring team in the league after finishing last, last year. It’s only the second time in history that a team went from worst to first in scoring.
The key to the Ram’s offense is obviously Todd Gurley. He not only ran for 1,305 yards (2nd overall) but was first in rushing TDs with 13.
Atlanta is surprisingly stingy against the run. Over the last four games with a playoff spot on the line and against 3 playoff teams, the Falcons allowed 76.7 yards per game on the ground. In fact, only once this season did a player rush for 100 yards on the Birds - Jay Ajayi in week 6.
But Gurley is also a weapon as a receiver. He had 64 catches for 788 yards and six TDs making him number one in total yards and TDs on the year. This will be a huge test for Falcon LB Deion Jones to try and contain Gurley.
Atlanta is not too shabby on offense either and the Ram’s defense is a tad soft against the run ranking 20th overall. The two headed monster of Freeman and Coleman should keep the chains moving. LA lost their best DB when Kayvon Webster went down with a season ending injury a couple of weeks ago so Julio and Sanu should have some success too.
That is if Matty Ice has time to get them the ball. Atlanta’s offensive line is dinged up meaning Aaron Donald will have Ryan under pressure all day.
This line is a tad too big and Ryan has a strong track record of covering as a large underdog. He is 10-5 against the spread when getting six or more points since his second season. That makes sense because the better quarterbacks in the NFL tend to either win or keep games close.
I’ll take Atlanta for a quatloo and the over 48.5 for another quatloo.
The key to the Ram’s offense is obviously Todd Gurley. He not only ran for 1,305 yards (2nd overall) but was first in rushing TDs with 13.
Atlanta is surprisingly stingy against the run. Over the last four games with a playoff spot on the line and against 3 playoff teams, the Falcons allowed 76.7 yards per game on the ground. In fact, only once this season did a player rush for 100 yards on the Birds - Jay Ajayi in week 6.
But Gurley is also a weapon as a receiver. He had 64 catches for 788 yards and six TDs making him number one in total yards and TDs on the year. This will be a huge test for Falcon LB Deion Jones to try and contain Gurley.
Atlanta is not too shabby on offense either and the Ram’s defense is a tad soft against the run ranking 20th overall. The two headed monster of Freeman and Coleman should keep the chains moving. LA lost their best DB when Kayvon Webster went down with a season ending injury a couple of weeks ago so Julio and Sanu should have some success too.
That is if Matty Ice has time to get them the ball. Atlanta’s offensive line is dinged up meaning Aaron Donald will have Ryan under pressure all day.
This line is a tad too big and Ryan has a strong track record of covering as a large underdog. He is 10-5 against the spread when getting six or more points since his second season. That makes sense because the better quarterbacks in the NFL tend to either win or keep games close.
I’ll take Atlanta for a quatloo and the over 48.5 for another quatloo.
trading Marcell Dareus? That was just dumb Buffalo Buffalo +8.0 @ Jacksonville – So who is this year’s bigger Cinderella? Jacksonville was an NFL-worst 17-63 over the previous five seasons and is in the playoffs.
The Bill’s ended the longest playoff drought in North American sports and they needed Cincinnati to convert a 4th and 12 to beat Baltimore in week 17 to get in. The Bill’s haven’t been to the playoffs since 1999. Facebook didn’t exist let alone tweeting or snapchat.
The Bills don't seem to match up well on paper. They rank 30th in sacks allowed and are 29th in total offense and that is with LeSean McCoy playing. He is dinged up and even if he plays he will be slowed.
The Jaguars defense ranks first in the NFL in yards-per-play, pass defense and interceptions and is ranked second in total defense, sacks and scoring defense.
McCoy's absence would put immense pressure on Taylor and the Bills' 31st ranked passing offense.
Defensively, Buffalo ranks 30th in stopping the run. Fun stat when playing Leonard Fournette. The rush defense really went downhill when, in one of the dumbest trades in a long time, Buffalo shipped off Marcell Dareus to these very same Jaguars.In the seven games prior to the Dareus trade, the Bills had surrendered just one 100-yard rushing performance. In the nine games following the trade, Buffalo allowed six teams to eclipse the 100-yard rushing barrier. The Saints gashed them for a ridiculous 294 yards at home in Week 10.
But I’m still taking the Bills purely based on Blake Bortles being the Jags QB. Bortles has thrown five interceptions the last two games and the team has committed seven turnovers in that span. In fact, Blake has personally accounted for over half of the 33 turnovers surrendered by the Jaguars, not including his six fumbles that Jacksonville managed to recover.
As Jurrell casey DT Tennessee said on Tuesday, “As long as Bortles is back there, if the ballgame is in his hands, he’s going to choke. If you get Bortles and Jacksonville’s offense down, it’s easy to keep them down.”
Bortles is bad in normal situations – can’t imagine how he will do under the pressure of the playoffs. I’ll take the Bills for a Mini Mega.
The Bill’s ended the longest playoff drought in North American sports and they needed Cincinnati to convert a 4th and 12 to beat Baltimore in week 17 to get in. The Bill’s haven’t been to the playoffs since 1999. Facebook didn’t exist let alone tweeting or snapchat.
The Bills don't seem to match up well on paper. They rank 30th in sacks allowed and are 29th in total offense and that is with LeSean McCoy playing. He is dinged up and even if he plays he will be slowed.
The Jaguars defense ranks first in the NFL in yards-per-play, pass defense and interceptions and is ranked second in total defense, sacks and scoring defense.
McCoy's absence would put immense pressure on Taylor and the Bills' 31st ranked passing offense.
Defensively, Buffalo ranks 30th in stopping the run. Fun stat when playing Leonard Fournette. The rush defense really went downhill when, in one of the dumbest trades in a long time, Buffalo shipped off Marcell Dareus to these very same Jaguars.In the seven games prior to the Dareus trade, the Bills had surrendered just one 100-yard rushing performance. In the nine games following the trade, Buffalo allowed six teams to eclipse the 100-yard rushing barrier. The Saints gashed them for a ridiculous 294 yards at home in Week 10.
But I’m still taking the Bills purely based on Blake Bortles being the Jags QB. Bortles has thrown five interceptions the last two games and the team has committed seven turnovers in that span. In fact, Blake has personally accounted for over half of the 33 turnovers surrendered by the Jaguars, not including his six fumbles that Jacksonville managed to recover.
As Jurrell casey DT Tennessee said on Tuesday, “As long as Bortles is back there, if the ballgame is in his hands, he’s going to choke. If you get Bortles and Jacksonville’s offense down, it’s easy to keep them down.”
Bortles is bad in normal situations – can’t imagine how he will do under the pressure of the playoffs. I’ll take the Bills for a Mini Mega.
Yeah, the Saints may have a defense and ground game but it's still the Drew Brees show New Orleans -6.5 vs Carolina – Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara caught all the headlines in the Big Easy this season after the Saints finished with a top five rushing attack for the first time under head coach Sean Payton.
But this is still Drew Brees’ team and the Saints still chuck the ball around the field. The Saints finished fifth in passing yards gained per game at 261.8 and led the league in passer completion percentage with Brees connecting on 72 percent of his pass attempts.
Carolina’s defense excels against the run but struggles with the ball in the air. The Panthers allowed a league-worst 300.3 passing yards per contest in the last three weeks of the season.
Brees loves playing against Carolina. In the two matchups combined, he went 47-of-64 for 489 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. The simple explanation for this is that the Panthers, while strong in the front seven, have major issues in their secondary.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have some glaring concerns that were prevalent in Week 17. One was their inability to protect Cam Newton. They were missing guard Trai Turner, and his return will help, but they could have trouble blocking New Orleans' defensive front.
Another big issue for the Panthers is Greg Olsen's injury. Olsen had a dominant performance in Week 15, catching nine passes for 116 yards and a touchdown against the porous Packer defenses. However, he logged just one reception in Week 17, as he and Newton weren't on the same page. Olsen got banged up on that reception and whiffed on the rest of the game. Christian McCaffrey is banged up too so Cam Newton doesn't have reliable weapons at his disposal. Devin Funchess is OK, but he won't be able to get open against Marshon Lattimore. Newton will have to take matters into his own hands by scrambling a ton.
The Panthers were the best underdog bet in the NFL, going 5-2 ATS when getting the points. And looking back to Newton’s time under center for Carolina, the Panthers are 30-20 ATS as betting underdogs since 2011. That’s a blind 60 percent ATS winner.
But, New Orleans has already beaten Carolina twice this season by a combined score of 65-33 and covering the spread in each outing. In fact, the Saints have covered six straight against the Panthers.
I’ll take the Saints for a Mega Bet and make it seven straight covers.
But this is still Drew Brees’ team and the Saints still chuck the ball around the field. The Saints finished fifth in passing yards gained per game at 261.8 and led the league in passer completion percentage with Brees connecting on 72 percent of his pass attempts.
Carolina’s defense excels against the run but struggles with the ball in the air. The Panthers allowed a league-worst 300.3 passing yards per contest in the last three weeks of the season.
Brees loves playing against Carolina. In the two matchups combined, he went 47-of-64 for 489 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. The simple explanation for this is that the Panthers, while strong in the front seven, have major issues in their secondary.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have some glaring concerns that were prevalent in Week 17. One was their inability to protect Cam Newton. They were missing guard Trai Turner, and his return will help, but they could have trouble blocking New Orleans' defensive front.
Another big issue for the Panthers is Greg Olsen's injury. Olsen had a dominant performance in Week 15, catching nine passes for 116 yards and a touchdown against the porous Packer defenses. However, he logged just one reception in Week 17, as he and Newton weren't on the same page. Olsen got banged up on that reception and whiffed on the rest of the game. Christian McCaffrey is banged up too so Cam Newton doesn't have reliable weapons at his disposal. Devin Funchess is OK, but he won't be able to get open against Marshon Lattimore. Newton will have to take matters into his own hands by scrambling a ton.
The Panthers were the best underdog bet in the NFL, going 5-2 ATS when getting the points. And looking back to Newton’s time under center for Carolina, the Panthers are 30-20 ATS as betting underdogs since 2011. That’s a blind 60 percent ATS winner.
But, New Orleans has already beaten Carolina twice this season by a combined score of 65-33 and covering the spread in each outing. In fact, the Saints have covered six straight against the Panthers.
I’ll take the Saints for a Mega Bet and make it seven straight covers.
