Vegas is getting ready for its second biggest day of the year. The Super Bowl is #1 by far but #2 is The Tourney. Its time for the Big Dance. March Madness is here. It's Izzo Time!
And it’s time to come up with your excuses for missing work (vasectomies skyrocket during this week), get the gang together at your local watering hole, grab some beers and watch your newly found favorite teams.
But the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball now you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers.
And like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
And it’s time to come up with your excuses for missing work (vasectomies skyrocket during this week), get the gang together at your local watering hole, grab some beers and watch your newly found favorite teams.
But the best part of March Madness is picking your brackets. After a whole year of casually watching basketball now you get to be an expert with a chance to win some money from your co-workers.
And like the annual rules for picking the Bowl Games here are some tips to stay in contention longer in your pools
1. Always pick MSU to win it all. Well, that’s more of a house rule. I always do since I don’t want to be in a position where State does win it all and I sheepishly picked someone else.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to Phoenix.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. The top seeds are 128-0 since seeding began. It may happen someday, but no sense blowing your bracket this year waiting for that to happen.
4. Advance your 2 seeds at least one game but then look for upsets. The No. 2 seeds have taken a quite a few hits over last few seasons. Last year a number 2 lost after winning just one game (Xavier) and another lost in the opening game (Somehow that team is been blocked from my memory banks). Prior to that in 2015 two 2s lost after winning a game (Kansas and Virginia). The same thing happened in 2014 (Kansas and Villanova).
5. Speaking of Kansas – they suck in the tourney. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year. They only made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Last year they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. They are a 1 seed again this year. Don’t be afraid to bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks.
6. The 3 seeds are just as susceptible to falling to 14 seeds. Last year a 3 seed lost in the first round (West Virginia) and another (Utah) got launched after winning one game. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter #3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. Put in a 14 seed for a little spice in your bracket.
2. Pick your Final Four first and work backwards. Starting in the opening rounds and working forward inevitably leads to leaving you with some unintentional Cinderella heading to Phoenix.
3. Advance all the No. 1 seeds. A No. 1 seed has never lost in the round of 64. The top seeds are 128-0 since seeding began. It may happen someday, but no sense blowing your bracket this year waiting for that to happen.
4. Advance your 2 seeds at least one game but then look for upsets. The No. 2 seeds have taken a quite a few hits over last few seasons. Last year a number 2 lost after winning just one game (Xavier) and another lost in the opening game (Somehow that team is been blocked from my memory banks). Prior to that in 2015 two 2s lost after winning a game (Kansas and Virginia). The same thing happened in 2014 (Kansas and Villanova).
5. Speaking of Kansas – they suck in the tourney. Since 2011 the have been either a 1 or 2 seed every year. They only made it to the Final Four once (2012). In 2014 and 2015 they were 2 seeds and didn’t make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Last year they were a one seed and lost in the Elite Eight. They are a 1 seed again this year. Don’t be afraid to bounce the Rock Shock ChokeHawks.
6. The 3 seeds are just as susceptible to falling to 14 seeds. Last year a 3 seed lost in the first round (West Virginia) and another (Utah) got launched after winning one game. In 2015 two 3 seeds got bounced in the first round (Baylor and Iowa State). In 2014 Doofus Daughter #3 watched her Mercer Bears take down Dook. In 2013, Mr H watched his Harvard Crimson upset New Mexico. Put in a 14 seed for a little spice in your bracket.
7. It’s been trendy to take the 12 seeds to upset the 5 seeds. In 2013 and 2014, 3 of the 4 number 12 seeds won. In 2015 that trend took a pause as all four 5 seeds advanced. But last year the trend picked up again as two 5 seeds fell in the first round (Purdue and Baylor) So have a little fun - take a 12 to beat a 5!
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last six Tournaments, fourteen of the forty eight No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
9. Don’t fall in love with upsets later on though. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 80 Final Four teams, 65 (81%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed but that is it.
10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 20 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.8. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 21 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). Hmmm looking at that trend - maybe its due.
8. Drop some No. 1s or a No. 2s in the round of 32. In the last six Tournaments, fourteen of the forty eight No. 1 or No. 2 seeds lost before the Sweet 16. The teams in seeds 7-10 are talented but streaky, capable of knocking off a top seed on a two day turnaround.
9. Don’t fall in love with upsets later on though. Everyone remembers the Mercers, Butlers, VCUs, George Mason and Florida Gulf Coasts of the tourney. But it’s because they are so rare that they are so memorable. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a low seed will make the Final Four. Of the last 80 Final Four teams, 65 (81%) were top-four seeds. There’s probably room for one non top four seed but that is it.
10. That said don’t go all favorites in the Final Four. A Final Four of all 1 seeds has happened only once since they began seeding in 1979 (2008). And it makes your bracket too safe and not too much fun. I mean, what’s to brag about if you got that Final Four right. Have some fun and earn some bragging rights. Take some lower seeds. On average, over the last 20 years, the total of the seeds in the Final Four has been around 11.8. If you are 8 or below – too safe. Over 20 – you are playing without the net. Over 20 has only happened 3 times over the last 21 years (2000, 2006 and 2011). Hmmm looking at that trend - maybe its due.
11. All that talk about bubble teams, forget it. Starting in February all the talk is about bubble teams. Now you can forget about them. Those teams had trouble clinching a Tourney bid because they couldn’t win consistently. Teams from major conferences that are bubble teams are bubble teams because their flawed. Not so much though with teams from mid majors. They can be dangerous.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32.
13.Find balance on offense and defense. Defense wins championship in football. Not so much in basketball. Basketball is more about balance. The champion for 12 of the last 13 years (UConn was the exception in 2014) has ranked in the top 20 in both of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. This year four team earned that ranking – Gonzaga, Villanova, Kentucky and Wichita State.
14. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 19 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, take a pass on Kansas (of course), Louisville, Baylor and Purdue to win it all.
12. Advance at least one First Four Winner to the Round of 32. Every year since the First Four started in 2011 at least one of the First Four teams has advanced to the Round of 32.
13.Find balance on offense and defense. Defense wins championship in football. Not so much in basketball. Basketball is more about balance. The champion for 12 of the last 13 years (UConn was the exception in 2014) has ranked in the top 20 in both of Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive and defensive rankings. This year four team earned that ranking – Gonzaga, Villanova, Kentucky and Wichita State.
14. Conference tournaments kinda matter. In the last 19 years, 11 national champions won their conference tournament. Conversely, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, take a pass on Kansas (of course), Louisville, Baylor and Purdue to win it all.
15. Lots of sometimes conflicting advice. But some trends emerge. Here’s what I’m looking at this year.
a. Starting with the Final Four – In the Midwest - I’m going to forget my house rule. I’m going to take the risk of not taking the Spartans. They are too young and still don’t get Izzo’s tourney discipline. But, before I make my Midwest pick – forgive me Father for I am about to sin - I’m going to hate and root against my bracket this year and take Michigan to win the Midwest. They are as hot as anyone. Unfortunately my hate and root against strategy backfired on me in the NFL when the Patriots won the Super Bowl. It can’t happen again can it?
b. In the East – It’s been Turmoil City in Durham this year. But Duke put it all in the past as they rolled to the ACC tournament championship. Since this is my “I hate my bracket” I’ll take Duke to advance the the Final Four too.
c. In the South – Roy Williams has never not made it to the Elite Eight as a #1 seed so I’ll put them that far straight away. But I’ll stop them there (Sorry Ellis). The Pac 12 hasn’t had a Final Four team since 2008. This year they get in two starting with UCLA
d. In the West – I’m going to pretty much stick with the favorites in this bracket. In the end it will be a rematch between Arizona and Gonzaga. Back in December the Zags beat the Wildcats. Zona gets their payback and advances to the Final Four.
d. In the West – I’m going to pretty much stick with the favorites in this bracket. In the end it will be a rematch between Arizona and Gonzaga. Back in December the Zags beat the Wildcats. Zona gets their payback and advances to the Final Four.
16. That makes total seeds for the Final Four equal 14. A tad high. Now if I go with UNC instead of UCLA it would equal 12 – in line with the historical average (Ellis is still trying to work me over). But this year is more competitive than prior years. I’ll stay with UCLA.
17. For my First Four upset – I’ll go with the winner of Kansas State/Wake Forest to upset Cincinnati.
18. For the 13 over 4 upset – I’ll go with two – East Tennessee State to upset Florida. Doofus Daughter #3 really likes the Buccaneers. I’ll also take Vermont to upset Purdue. One and done in the Big Ten Tourney scares me off the Boilers.
For a 12 to beat a 5 – I’m going with Middle Tennessee State to take down the fading Gophers. MTSU is even better than last year when they won as a 15 seed (Still can’t remember who they beat).
20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? Yup, Louisville goes down in my He Hate Me bracket
Put it all together and here is my 2016 bracket:
17. For my First Four upset – I’ll go with the winner of Kansas State/Wake Forest to upset Cincinnati.
18. For the 13 over 4 upset – I’ll go with two – East Tennessee State to upset Florida. Doofus Daughter #3 really likes the Buccaneers. I’ll also take Vermont to upset Purdue. One and done in the Big Ten Tourney scares me off the Boilers.
For a 12 to beat a 5 – I’m going with Middle Tennessee State to take down the fading Gophers. MTSU is even better than last year when they won as a 15 seed (Still can’t remember who they beat).
20. Any 1 or 2s going to lose in the round of 32? Yup, Louisville goes down in my He Hate Me bracket
Put it all together and here is my 2016 bracket:
I hate my bracket