The public has been killing it in the playoffs. They've gone 8-0 in the NFL playoffs and 6-2 on the over/under. Add in the parlays and it’s the worst run ever by the sports books. Losses are in the millions.
The William Hill sports books went so far as to issue a press release stating that Sunday was their worst single day ever with losses above two commas.
Will it continue? According to Jason Simbal, CG Technology VP of Risk here’s where the Joes are betting this week. "We're split overall on the Packers - Falcons game, but if the Packers win paying off on the money line (+175), parlayed to the Over (61) and then tied to the Patriots covering (6), it's going to be an ugly day. It's been all Packers money line with the fans, while the sharps have been on the Falcons," Simbal said. "Were 5.5 to 1 on ticket counts with the Packers money line."
The Packers to win outright has been the popular bet throughout Sin City. It's hard not to buy in to the reasoning after Aaron Rodgers saying his team would "run the table" when the Packers were 4-6 and playoff hopes were looking dim. True to his word, Green Bay has won eight straight (7-1 ATS) and made Joe Public a believer.
The William Hill sports books went so far as to issue a press release stating that Sunday was their worst single day ever with losses above two commas.
Will it continue? According to Jason Simbal, CG Technology VP of Risk here’s where the Joes are betting this week. "We're split overall on the Packers - Falcons game, but if the Packers win paying off on the money line (+175), parlayed to the Over (61) and then tied to the Patriots covering (6), it's going to be an ugly day. It's been all Packers money line with the fans, while the sharps have been on the Falcons," Simbal said. "Were 5.5 to 1 on ticket counts with the Packers money line."
The Packers to win outright has been the popular bet throughout Sin City. It's hard not to buy in to the reasoning after Aaron Rodgers saying his team would "run the table" when the Packers were 4-6 and playoff hopes were looking dim. True to his word, Green Bay has won eight straight (7-1 ATS) and made Joe Public a believer.
One player has made a ton of money on Rodger’s vow. He laid down $300 on the money line and the Packers since the start of the winning streak and rolling over the winnings each week. His up over $28,000 after the Green Bay’s last second winning field goal over Dallas last week. A Packers win Sunday will net him over $75,000.
The interesting action has been on the over/under. The fans are pounding the the monstrous record setting over of 61.5. Not hard to figure out why. The last two times Ryan and Rodgers have faced off they’ve totaled a whopping 145 points.
As far as the night cap game of Patriots vs Steelers - "They're betting New England and they can't stop betting New England," said Simbal. "We're at 6.0 and have over two times the cash on the Patriots.” William Hill says that 88% of the money is on New England.
No line seems big enough to lay with the Pats. Last week, the books upped the line to 16.5 and the Brady bunch still covered winning 34-16.
So with the public backing the Pats and taking Green Bay on the money line and the over is that the way to go?
The interesting action has been on the over/under. The fans are pounding the the monstrous record setting over of 61.5. Not hard to figure out why. The last two times Ryan and Rodgers have faced off they’ve totaled a whopping 145 points.
As far as the night cap game of Patriots vs Steelers - "They're betting New England and they can't stop betting New England," said Simbal. "We're at 6.0 and have over two times the cash on the Patriots.” William Hill says that 88% of the money is on New England.
No line seems big enough to lay with the Pats. Last week, the books upped the line to 16.5 and the Brady bunch still covered winning 34-16.
So with the public backing the Pats and taking Green Bay on the money line and the over is that the way to go?
Green Bay +6.0 @ Atlanta - So far the betting has been easy. Take the better QB. Now, the four best and hottest QBs are all that is left. Rodgers, posted a 117.9 passer rating with 21 touchdowns and one interception during his eight-game winning streak.
Ryan hasn't been too shabby in his own right either, throwing 14 scoring passes without an interception during Atlanta's five-game winning streak. His 117.1 passer rating this season was not only the best in the league but the fifth best ever. And his 38 TDs trailed only Rodgers’ 40.
Both quarterbacks should have big days against poor pass defenses. Green Bay finished 31st in the NFL, Atlanta 26th. Both defenses also finished in the bottom fourth of the league on third down and in the red zone. So much for defenses winning championships.
Ryan might have the better supporting cast. While Julio Jones didn't practice because of an ongoing toe injury, coach Dan Quinn expects him to play. Jones caught 83 passes for 1,409 yards and six touchdowns this season. Ryan also has Mohamed Sanu (653 yards, four touchdowns), Taylor Gabriel (579 yards, six TDs) and explosive running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (85 receptions, 883 yards, five scores). A league record 10 players caught at least two touchdown passes.
Ryan hasn't been too shabby in his own right either, throwing 14 scoring passes without an interception during Atlanta's five-game winning streak. His 117.1 passer rating this season was not only the best in the league but the fifth best ever. And his 38 TDs trailed only Rodgers’ 40.
Both quarterbacks should have big days against poor pass defenses. Green Bay finished 31st in the NFL, Atlanta 26th. Both defenses also finished in the bottom fourth of the league on third down and in the red zone. So much for defenses winning championships.
Ryan might have the better supporting cast. While Julio Jones didn't practice because of an ongoing toe injury, coach Dan Quinn expects him to play. Jones caught 83 passes for 1,409 yards and six touchdowns this season. Ryan also has Mohamed Sanu (653 yards, four touchdowns), Taylor Gabriel (579 yards, six TDs) and explosive running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman (85 receptions, 883 yards, five scores). A league record 10 players caught at least two touchdown passes.
Meanwhile, Rodgers' supporting cast might not be complete. Jordy Nelson suffered broken ribs against the New York Giants, sat out the win over the Cowboys and might have trouble getting back for this game. He's dealing with a combination of pain tolerance and medical clearance in his decision to play versus Atlanta. Meanwhile, fellow receivers Davante Adams (ankle) and Geronimo Allison (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday.
Perhaps more important to Green Bay’s chances is the injury to S Morgan Burnett. Burnett hurt his quad against Dallas and has been limited in practice this week. If he is hobbled, Ryan will torch the Packer secondary even worse than the first outing.
The trends are pretty even when these two teams play each other. Rodgers is 3-3 straight up and ATS versus Ryan. Thought the visiting team is 5-1 ATS.
This game will ultimately come down to whether the falcon defense can keep Rodgers inside the pocket. When his is inside the pocket he registered a rather average 82.7 QBR. But once he started scrambling his QBR sky rocketed to 146.8. Those epic hail mary passes – outside the pocket. And this legendary throw to Jared Cook to set up the winning field goal - Yup, outside the pocket.
Perhaps more important to Green Bay’s chances is the injury to S Morgan Burnett. Burnett hurt his quad against Dallas and has been limited in practice this week. If he is hobbled, Ryan will torch the Packer secondary even worse than the first outing.
The trends are pretty even when these two teams play each other. Rodgers is 3-3 straight up and ATS versus Ryan. Thought the visiting team is 5-1 ATS.
This game will ultimately come down to whether the falcon defense can keep Rodgers inside the pocket. When his is inside the pocket he registered a rather average 82.7 QBR. But once he started scrambling his QBR sky rocketed to 146.8. Those epic hail mary passes – outside the pocket. And this legendary throw to Jared Cook to set up the winning field goal - Yup, outside the pocket.
Bruce has been begging me to repent for picking against the Falcons last week, even going as far as to send me pictures of beautiful, ornate confessionals he is coming across on the Mediterranean cruise he is on.
The analysis says that the Falcons should beat the injury riddled, flu ridden Packers at home. But giving nearly a TD to a HOF QB playing as red hot as he has ever been just seems a bit much to me. I'm going to go with Atlanta being a little overwhelmed by the moment at the start of the game, coming back and winning late but not covering. And because of the slow start, I'll take the under 61 too. Vegas needs to start winning or bodies are going to be achieving ground temperature over at the Atomic Testing site pretty soon.
The analysis says that the Falcons should beat the injury riddled, flu ridden Packers at home. But giving nearly a TD to a HOF QB playing as red hot as he has ever been just seems a bit much to me. I'm going to go with Atlanta being a little overwhelmed by the moment at the start of the game, coming back and winning late but not covering. And because of the slow start, I'll take the under 61 too. Vegas needs to start winning or bodies are going to be achieving ground temperature over at the Atomic Testing site pretty soon.
New England -6.0 vs Pittsburgh - The two most successful teams from the AFC since the NFL merger in 1970 will meet in this year's conference title game. The winner will be the first team in NFL history to play in nine Super Bowls.
Tom Brady has owned the Steelers going 9-2 SU (8-2-1 ATS) against Pittsburgh, including 2-0 in the postseason. Brady is 4-0 against the Steelers in Gillette Stadium and always seems to have big games against the Steelers, He's had five straight with a passer ratings of 100 or better, with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions.
But Brady was a bit off last week last week against Houston. He had a 68.6 QBR and two picks. Yet, the Pats still put up 34 points on the scoreboard.
The Steelers are built around a strong running game and an opportunistic defense that has improved greatly since the beginning of the season.
If the Steelers are going to beat the Patriots, running back Le'Veon Bell has to touch the ball at least 30 times. He has been nearly unstoppable in the last eight games, rushing for 1,172 yards (146.5 per game). But his 337 yards in the playoffs came against the 30th and 26th ranked rush defenses. The Patriots, third vs. the run, will prove a stiffer test. They held Bell to 81 yards on 21 carries earlier this season.
But that came with Roethlisberger injured. The Patriots are going to have to respect the Steelers' passing game much more in the rematch. If the Patriots do stack the box with run defenders, Big Ben will make some big plays in the passing game to back them off.
Tom Brady has owned the Steelers going 9-2 SU (8-2-1 ATS) against Pittsburgh, including 2-0 in the postseason. Brady is 4-0 against the Steelers in Gillette Stadium and always seems to have big games against the Steelers, He's had five straight with a passer ratings of 100 or better, with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions.
But Brady was a bit off last week last week against Houston. He had a 68.6 QBR and two picks. Yet, the Pats still put up 34 points on the scoreboard.
The Steelers are built around a strong running game and an opportunistic defense that has improved greatly since the beginning of the season.
If the Steelers are going to beat the Patriots, running back Le'Veon Bell has to touch the ball at least 30 times. He has been nearly unstoppable in the last eight games, rushing for 1,172 yards (146.5 per game). But his 337 yards in the playoffs came against the 30th and 26th ranked rush defenses. The Patriots, third vs. the run, will prove a stiffer test. They held Bell to 81 yards on 21 carries earlier this season.
But that came with Roethlisberger injured. The Patriots are going to have to respect the Steelers' passing game much more in the rematch. If the Patriots do stack the box with run defenders, Big Ben will make some big plays in the passing game to back them off.
Another key, will be similar to the Falcons vs Rodgers – pressure the QB. But unlike Atlanta’s task to keep Rodgers in the pocket, the Steelers must pressure Brady up the middle. That’s how the Giants have done it and Baltimore and Denver have followed suit.
Pittsburgh’s pass rush was formidable late in the season with the return of Bud Dupree being a big reason why. If he is getting to Brady, the Steelers chances of pulling off the upset go way up.
It seems like we see the Patriots in the AFC Championship every season (last miss was 2010), but New England has failed to win this game in three of the past four years. Last season, New England fell short at Denver in a 2018 setback. That said, the Pats have won four of five home AFC Championships with Brady at quarterback. However, New England owns a dreadful 1-6 ATS mark in its last seven conference championships since 2006 with the only cover coming against Indianapolis in 2014.
I'm going to go against the public again in this game and take the Steelers covering the 6.0 spread. I'll also take the over 51.0. Pittsburgh is 6-0 on the over in championship games and New England is 5-0 over in their last five home playoff games. Besides, overs are just much more fun
Pittsburgh’s pass rush was formidable late in the season with the return of Bud Dupree being a big reason why. If he is getting to Brady, the Steelers chances of pulling off the upset go way up.
It seems like we see the Patriots in the AFC Championship every season (last miss was 2010), but New England has failed to win this game in three of the past four years. Last season, New England fell short at Denver in a 2018 setback. That said, the Pats have won four of five home AFC Championships with Brady at quarterback. However, New England owns a dreadful 1-6 ATS mark in its last seven conference championships since 2006 with the only cover coming against Indianapolis in 2014.
I'm going to go against the public again in this game and take the Steelers covering the 6.0 spread. I'll also take the over 51.0. Pittsburgh is 6-0 on the over in championship games and New England is 5-0 over in their last five home playoff games. Besides, overs are just much more fun