This is it! All the practice picks lead up to these next few days. It’s been all fun and games up ‘til now. Well, fun watching the games. Not so fun racking up the losses.
But the slate is wiped clean. It all comes down to this weekend.
Using the BBofG Advanced Betting Metrics shows a ton of promise. I’m going to use it to narrow down the list of betting candidates from 59 Div 1A college games to a handful and then allocate the bets.
And I’ll use good old gut feel from watching tons of games to make a few more picks
I’m also going to get my picks out early so everyone can chortle and root against the Doofus and, more importantly, I can relax with some Tullamore Dew (Chris is not around so the bottle is safe) in the SuperBook for the rest of the weekend.
So what does the BBofG Advanced Betting Metrics say?
Take the favorite if the spread is from 0 to 3.0. (YTD 30-27-6 – 53%)
This stat is trending back to breakeven so I’ll use it as a “tie breaker” in the gut feel team picking to make a bet
On spreads from 3.5 to 6.5 take the favorite if it’s the visitor otherwise pass (YTD 25-17-1 60%)
This was further modified to take the visiting favorite from 4.5 to 6.5 (YTD 18-6-0 75%). Teams in this scenario are:
Arkansas State -5.0 @ Georgia State
Notre Dame -6.5 @ Navy (Joe implemented a no betting on the Domers rule years ago – I’ll follow that)
Florida State -5.5 @ NC State (Ellis likes this pick)
Florida -5.5 @ Arkansas
From 7.0 to 9.5 take the underdog if it’s the visitor otherwise pass (YTD 28-14-0 67%)
East Carolina +8.0 @ Tulsa
Iowa +7.5 @ Penn State
TCU +7.5 @ Baylor
Missouri +7.0 @ South Carolina
On spreads from 10.0 to 13.5 take the favorite if it’s home otherwise pass (YTD 21-15-1 58%)
Colorado -13.0 vs UCLA – The Sheriff is on board!
North Carolina -10.5 @ Georgia Tech – Ellis now wishes he were in Vegas. The Sax Man is groaning
Old Dominion -11.0 vs Marshall
From 14 to 20.5 take the home dog otherwise pass (YTD 19-12-0 61%)
Iowa State +20.5 vs Oklahoma
Rutgers +14.0 vs Indiana – Pete may want to rethink making the bet for the Mrs
North Texas +20.0 vs La Tech
Cal +16.5 vs Washington – Another Sheriff pick!
Teams giving 40 or more (YTD 4-1 80%)
No Teams are giving 40 or more points this week
With two bets mirroring the Sheriff (see his picks and analysis below) I’ll put mini megas on:
But the slate is wiped clean. It all comes down to this weekend.
Using the BBofG Advanced Betting Metrics shows a ton of promise. I’m going to use it to narrow down the list of betting candidates from 59 Div 1A college games to a handful and then allocate the bets.
And I’ll use good old gut feel from watching tons of games to make a few more picks
I’m also going to get my picks out early so everyone can chortle and root against the Doofus and, more importantly, I can relax with some Tullamore Dew (Chris is not around so the bottle is safe) in the SuperBook for the rest of the weekend.
So what does the BBofG Advanced Betting Metrics say?
Take the favorite if the spread is from 0 to 3.0. (YTD 30-27-6 – 53%)
This stat is trending back to breakeven so I’ll use it as a “tie breaker” in the gut feel team picking to make a bet
On spreads from 3.5 to 6.5 take the favorite if it’s the visitor otherwise pass (YTD 25-17-1 60%)
This was further modified to take the visiting favorite from 4.5 to 6.5 (YTD 18-6-0 75%). Teams in this scenario are:
Arkansas State -5.0 @ Georgia State
Notre Dame -6.5 @ Navy (Joe implemented a no betting on the Domers rule years ago – I’ll follow that)
Florida State -5.5 @ NC State (Ellis likes this pick)
Florida -5.5 @ Arkansas
From 7.0 to 9.5 take the underdog if it’s the visitor otherwise pass (YTD 28-14-0 67%)
East Carolina +8.0 @ Tulsa
Iowa +7.5 @ Penn State
TCU +7.5 @ Baylor
Missouri +7.0 @ South Carolina
On spreads from 10.0 to 13.5 take the favorite if it’s home otherwise pass (YTD 21-15-1 58%)
Colorado -13.0 vs UCLA – The Sheriff is on board!
North Carolina -10.5 @ Georgia Tech – Ellis now wishes he were in Vegas. The Sax Man is groaning
Old Dominion -11.0 vs Marshall
From 14 to 20.5 take the home dog otherwise pass (YTD 19-12-0 61%)
Iowa State +20.5 vs Oklahoma
Rutgers +14.0 vs Indiana – Pete may want to rethink making the bet for the Mrs
North Texas +20.0 vs La Tech
Cal +16.5 vs Washington – Another Sheriff pick!
Teams giving 40 or more (YTD 4-1 80%)
No Teams are giving 40 or more points this week
With two bets mirroring the Sheriff (see his picks and analysis below) I’ll put mini megas on:
Colorado -13.0 vs UCLA – Nothing like betting on opening night!
The Buff defense has been stellar in allowing only 48 points over the last 4 games. UCLA back up QB Mike Fafaul has thrown 8 picks over the last three games. Yet they rely on him since the Bruins have the nation’s worst rushing attack. Colorado is 7-0 ATS the year and 11-2 sine mid last year.
Cal +16.5 vs Washington – Washington is going to be a little beat up after a gruelling won over Utah last week. They are on the road for a second straight week when they face Cal getting their best WR back. The sitatuional analysis favors the Huskies. They will be pissed after starting out 5th in initial playoff rankings and it’s a revenge game. But 16.5 is a big hurdle. I’ll take the Bears.
I’ll also go with some more Mini Megas on:
Arkansas State -5.0 @ Georgia State – Another bet tonight. Going strong on the first day.
Strange dynamics in this game. Arkansas State will be playing on the road for the first time since mid Sept. Meanwhile Georgia State’s chances at a bowl went up in smoke with a loss to a South Alabama last week.
The Panthers rush defense has be shaky lately while Ark State has be cranking theirs up – going foo for 765 yards in the last three games. I’ll lay the points tonight.
The Buff defense has been stellar in allowing only 48 points over the last 4 games. UCLA back up QB Mike Fafaul has thrown 8 picks over the last three games. Yet they rely on him since the Bruins have the nation’s worst rushing attack. Colorado is 7-0 ATS the year and 11-2 sine mid last year.
Cal +16.5 vs Washington – Washington is going to be a little beat up after a gruelling won over Utah last week. They are on the road for a second straight week when they face Cal getting their best WR back. The sitatuional analysis favors the Huskies. They will be pissed after starting out 5th in initial playoff rankings and it’s a revenge game. But 16.5 is a big hurdle. I’ll take the Bears.
I’ll also go with some more Mini Megas on:
Arkansas State -5.0 @ Georgia State – Another bet tonight. Going strong on the first day.
Strange dynamics in this game. Arkansas State will be playing on the road for the first time since mid Sept. Meanwhile Georgia State’s chances at a bowl went up in smoke with a loss to a South Alabama last week.
The Panthers rush defense has be shaky lately while Ark State has be cranking theirs up – going foo for 765 yards in the last three games. I’ll lay the points tonight.
Florida State -5.0 @ NC State – is this a let down game for the Noles after coming so close against Clemson? FSU has gone 2-2 over the last four games losing two by a combined 5 points and only beating Miami (FL) by a point.
NC State has been a thorn in the Noles side for years going back to old white shades himself Chuck Amato.
NC State QB Ryan Finley has thrown 2 picks in three straight games. Not something you want to do against FSU’s defense. I’ll take the Noles to get the anger of the Clemson game out of their system and roll
Florida -5.5 @ Arkansas – Arkansas is coming off a bye after getting blasted by Auburn 56-3. It’s the third straight week Florida will be facing a team coming off a bye. It hasn’t mattered much. The Gators have only allowed 30 points over the last three games.
Outside of a loss to Tennessee, Florida has allowed only one TD pass all season. They will limit the Hogs 3rd best in the SEC’s aerial attack. The Hogs will rely even more heavily on the ground, beconing one dimensional.
The BBofG says lay the less than a TD. Sounds good to me.
Alabama -7.5 @ LSU – Ever since I saw that this game was on the slate I’ve wanted to take the Tide. As the season went on I wanted it even more. Just don’t let the spread get too big.
It came in at 7.5 – crap the dreaded hook. It’s been my downfall more than once this season.
And LSU has played much better since Ed Orgeron took over for Les Miles. For that reason I’ll make this a Mini Mega rather than a Mega Bet.
I’ll put quatloo bets on the rest of the games except UNC Tech. I guess blood is thicker than whiskey. Sorry Ellis. But feel free to text in a bet if you want one
Pat sent in some picks for tonight. He likes the Buffalo @ Ohio Over 52.0 and Colorado UCLA over 58. I hope he knows Josh Rosen is out for the year.
I’m going freestyle on my Mega Bet this year. I know, my picks have been awful but maybe this is the week…..
What’s the fun of the GO JUMBO week unless you put it on the line.
2016 GO JUMBO Official Real Money, There Goes the Kids Inheritance Mega Bet
NC State has been a thorn in the Noles side for years going back to old white shades himself Chuck Amato.
NC State QB Ryan Finley has thrown 2 picks in three straight games. Not something you want to do against FSU’s defense. I’ll take the Noles to get the anger of the Clemson game out of their system and roll
Florida -5.5 @ Arkansas – Arkansas is coming off a bye after getting blasted by Auburn 56-3. It’s the third straight week Florida will be facing a team coming off a bye. It hasn’t mattered much. The Gators have only allowed 30 points over the last three games.
Outside of a loss to Tennessee, Florida has allowed only one TD pass all season. They will limit the Hogs 3rd best in the SEC’s aerial attack. The Hogs will rely even more heavily on the ground, beconing one dimensional.
The BBofG says lay the less than a TD. Sounds good to me.
Alabama -7.5 @ LSU – Ever since I saw that this game was on the slate I’ve wanted to take the Tide. As the season went on I wanted it even more. Just don’t let the spread get too big.
It came in at 7.5 – crap the dreaded hook. It’s been my downfall more than once this season.
And LSU has played much better since Ed Orgeron took over for Les Miles. For that reason I’ll make this a Mini Mega rather than a Mega Bet.
I’ll put quatloo bets on the rest of the games except UNC Tech. I guess blood is thicker than whiskey. Sorry Ellis. But feel free to text in a bet if you want one
Pat sent in some picks for tonight. He likes the Buffalo @ Ohio Over 52.0 and Colorado UCLA over 58. I hope he knows Josh Rosen is out for the year.
I’m going freestyle on my Mega Bet this year. I know, my picks have been awful but maybe this is the week…..
What’s the fun of the GO JUMBO week unless you put it on the line.
2016 GO JUMBO Official Real Money, There Goes the Kids Inheritance Mega Bet
Nebraska +17.0 @ Ohio State – Nebraska destroyed my Double Mega Bet last year. Maybe they can come through for me this year.
Ohio State has been off for the last few weeks. The struggled to put away Wisconsin and Northwestern sandwiched around a big time gag against Penn State.
Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong has struggled lately too throwing 5 picks against only 2 TDs over the last three games.
As long as Armstrong doesn’t blow it this weekend 17 is too much to give the Huskers. They only allow 18.4 points per game
That’s the major bets for the College Games. Plenty of smaller quatloo bets and some parlays too.
Still looking at the NFL. Some spreads look pretty tempting
The Sheriff has stalled lately going 1-2 last week. He hopes to get things back on track (me too!) with:
Colorado (-12) over UCLA. If the Sheriff were in Vegas for GO JUMBO this weekend, this is where he would be placing his hard-earned civil servant salary. The Buffs are 6-2 and coming off a bye week at home against a UCLA team that is spiraling down the rabbit hole without its stud QB Josh Rosen. Colorado wins big.
Cal (+16.5) over Washington. After its big win against Utah last week, Washington is due for a let down. Cal, on the other hand, has had a few extra days of rest after its humiliating loss to the Condoms on ESPN last Thursday night. Cal is a much better team at home and should have its best wideout Chad Hansen back from injury. Cal probably won’t win but the Golden Bears will keep it close and cover this number.
Washington State (-17) over Arizona. This is a big number but Wazzu should be able to cover it at home against the worst team in the PAC-12.
And here is the 2016 GO JUMBO Official Hand Dandy Bettors Guide
Ohio State has been off for the last few weeks. The struggled to put away Wisconsin and Northwestern sandwiched around a big time gag against Penn State.
Nebraska QB Tommy Armstrong has struggled lately too throwing 5 picks against only 2 TDs over the last three games.
As long as Armstrong doesn’t blow it this weekend 17 is too much to give the Huskers. They only allow 18.4 points per game
That’s the major bets for the College Games. Plenty of smaller quatloo bets and some parlays too.
Still looking at the NFL. Some spreads look pretty tempting
The Sheriff has stalled lately going 1-2 last week. He hopes to get things back on track (me too!) with:
Colorado (-12) over UCLA. If the Sheriff were in Vegas for GO JUMBO this weekend, this is where he would be placing his hard-earned civil servant salary. The Buffs are 6-2 and coming off a bye week at home against a UCLA team that is spiraling down the rabbit hole without its stud QB Josh Rosen. Colorado wins big.
Cal (+16.5) over Washington. After its big win against Utah last week, Washington is due for a let down. Cal, on the other hand, has had a few extra days of rest after its humiliating loss to the Condoms on ESPN last Thursday night. Cal is a much better team at home and should have its best wideout Chad Hansen back from injury. Cal probably won’t win but the Golden Bears will keep it close and cover this number.
Washington State (-17) over Arizona. This is a big number but Wazzu should be able to cover it at home against the worst team in the PAC-12.
And here is the 2016 GO JUMBO Official Hand Dandy Bettors Guide
2016_go_jumbo_handy_dandy_bettors_guide.xlsx |
Wish us luck - we're going to need it