Derrick Henry scored 4 TDs in last years match up but he is off to the pros 4-0!
I was perfect on the NFL picks last week and 1-1 on the over/under. Not bad, not bad at all.
When I mentioned it to Bruce he texted “Yeah, just like rookie Bruce” Figured he’d try to hone in on my great picks.
Hopefully it will carry forward into next weekend.
But first there is a huge game tonight – the NCAA Div 1A championship!!
It’s a rematch, not only in the teams but in the spread. Last year, Bama was favored by 6.5 with the O/U at 50.5. This years it’s 6.5 and 51.5. What’s different is the record of the two teams has reversed. Alabama enters as the 13 – 0 undefeated favorite, whereas Clemson was the 13 – 0 undefeated underdog last year.
The Tigers scored a TD with 12 seconds left in 2016 to get the back door cover, losing 45-40 with the under backers getting destroyed.
So what to expect in this year’s game. Here's the factors I'm looking at:
I was perfect on the NFL picks last week and 1-1 on the over/under. Not bad, not bad at all.
When I mentioned it to Bruce he texted “Yeah, just like rookie Bruce” Figured he’d try to hone in on my great picks.
Hopefully it will carry forward into next weekend.
But first there is a huge game tonight – the NCAA Div 1A championship!!
It’s a rematch, not only in the teams but in the spread. Last year, Bama was favored by 6.5 with the O/U at 50.5. This years it’s 6.5 and 51.5. What’s different is the record of the two teams has reversed. Alabama enters as the 13 – 0 undefeated favorite, whereas Clemson was the 13 – 0 undefeated underdog last year.
The Tigers scored a TD with 12 seconds left in 2016 to get the back door cover, losing 45-40 with the under backers getting destroyed.
So what to expect in this year’s game. Here's the factors I'm looking at:
Mike Williams will finally get his chance against Bama Revenge factor – Clemson has been wanting this game since the clocked ticked down to zero in Glendale last year. Everyone, from the players to the coaches, from the administration all the way down to the guys supervising the dorm dishwashing staff have been egging for another chance at the Tide.
Last year, Clemson out yarded Bama 550-473 and yet lost. This year’s offense is even better. DeShaun Watson, has another year under his belt. WR Mike Williams, who missed last year’s game with a neck injury, and likely first WR of the draft board in April, will finally get his chance against the Tide. And the defense is even better than last year, finishing 8th overall, 7th in points allowed. This game has been circled since the time they landed back in South Carolina. It’s show time!
But Alabama has a revenge factor going too. The defense was embarrassed by last year’s game. Nick called last year’s game “a loss”. There’s a whole lot of things in life you don’t want to do – embarrassing Nick should be high on anyone’s list. With a defense that all 11 starters will likely get drafted and able to roll in 5 start talent from the bench, no way are the Tigers going to come close to last year’s totals.
Last year, Clemson out yarded Bama 550-473 and yet lost. This year’s offense is even better. DeShaun Watson, has another year under his belt. WR Mike Williams, who missed last year’s game with a neck injury, and likely first WR of the draft board in April, will finally get his chance against the Tide. And the defense is even better than last year, finishing 8th overall, 7th in points allowed. This game has been circled since the time they landed back in South Carolina. It’s show time!
But Alabama has a revenge factor going too. The defense was embarrassed by last year’s game. Nick called last year’s game “a loss”. There’s a whole lot of things in life you don’t want to do – embarrassing Nick should be high on anyone’s list. With a defense that all 11 starters will likely get drafted and able to roll in 5 start talent from the bench, no way are the Tigers going to come close to last year’s totals.
Sarkisian used to down a few before heading to the sidelines Controversy – There’s some distraction on the Bama sideline. Nick finally got fed up with OC Lane Kiffin’s BS, and the disappointment with the offensive output in the Washington game and told to him get down to Florida Atlantic – pronto.
Now, Saban never does anything without a plan and hired Steve Sarkisian as an “offensive analyst” – able to attend coaches meetings but not make decisions. Mere coincidence he did it just prior to the USC game. Saban had his backup already in place for when finally had enough of Lane.
It’s the third time that Sark has replaced Kiff. In 2007, he took over as OC for USC when Kiffin went to the Raiders. In 2014, he became HC at USC after Kiffin got canned midseason. And now this.
Of course, Sarkisian got canned from USC too for being drunker than Pat at Festival Daze. This is the first time he has worn the headsets since. If he is sober, expect him to continue running the ball under he goes over the top of the Tiger defense. And he will have his own few new wrinkles too. Clemson has been forced to add the USC playbook to their film room prep.
Clemson is not without controversy either. LB Christian Wilkins was caught going full Penn State on Ohio State’s Curtis Samuel, groping around, looking for the family jewels.
Now, Saban never does anything without a plan and hired Steve Sarkisian as an “offensive analyst” – able to attend coaches meetings but not make decisions. Mere coincidence he did it just prior to the USC game. Saban had his backup already in place for when finally had enough of Lane.
It’s the third time that Sark has replaced Kiff. In 2007, he took over as OC for USC when Kiffin went to the Raiders. In 2014, he became HC at USC after Kiffin got canned midseason. And now this.
Of course, Sarkisian got canned from USC too for being drunker than Pat at Festival Daze. This is the first time he has worn the headsets since. If he is sober, expect him to continue running the ball under he goes over the top of the Tiger defense. And he will have his own few new wrinkles too. Clemson has been forced to add the USC playbook to their film room prep.
Clemson is not without controversy either. LB Christian Wilkins was caught going full Penn State on Ohio State’s Curtis Samuel, groping around, looking for the family jewels.
Rather than deny what happened, LB Ben Boulware said "We've done it all year to mess with players. No one has done it as aggressive as Christian did. We try to be more discreet about it. He grabbed a handful." Did he ever. Maybe it was a payback for Woody's punch.
Who me?? Penalties - Which brings up the next big factor - penalties and discipline. The Tigers struggled mightily with penalties during the season, ranking 85th in penalties per game (6.57) and 90th in penalty yards per game (59.6). In their three games against ranked opponents during the season, they were even worse, averaging 7.7 penalties for 69.3 yards. And those stats don't include groping.
They likely won't get away with that against the Crimson Tide. Alabama finished in the middle of the pack in total penalties 5.5 per game (45th), but those infractions were far less damaging - the Crimson Tide compiled just 578 penalty yards through their first 14 games, good for an average of 41.29 yards per contest - 15th-best in the FBS.
No stretch better epitomizes Alabama's discipline than the three-game span when it faced Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU. The Crimson Tide incurred just 18 penalties for a mere 111 yards, winning those three games by a combined score of 92-24. In big games Clemson gets undisciplined, Bama tightens the ship
They likely won't get away with that against the Crimson Tide. Alabama finished in the middle of the pack in total penalties 5.5 per game (45th), but those infractions were far less damaging - the Crimson Tide compiled just 578 penalty yards through their first 14 games, good for an average of 41.29 yards per contest - 15th-best in the FBS.
No stretch better epitomizes Alabama's discipline than the three-game span when it faced Tennessee, Texas A&M and LSU. The Crimson Tide incurred just 18 penalties for a mere 111 yards, winning those three games by a combined score of 92-24. In big games Clemson gets undisciplined, Bama tightens the ship
Dual Threat QBs are kryptonite to Saban's defenses Deshuan Watson vs the Bama Defense - Saban’s defences have been consistently amazing. But, the one thing they struggle with is the dual threat QB. Despite the relative strides Bama has made in this regard, since the 2014 Iron Bowl the Tide defense has surrendered on average about 5 yard per carry, 300 yards and two touchdowns to dual threat QBs. And here comes one of the best in football in Clemson’s Deshaun Watson.
Watson, who finished second in this season's Heisman Trophy balloting, (and will fill the duties if the winner is unable to perform) passed for 4,173 yards and 38 touchdowns this year against 17 picks. He threw three or more touchdown passes on seven occasions and topped 300 yards six times. He also ran for 581 yards and another 8 TDs.
Saban may have been game planning all year to limit Watson but there is only so much you can do.
Watson, who finished second in this season's Heisman Trophy balloting, (and will fill the duties if the winner is unable to perform) passed for 4,173 yards and 38 touchdowns this year against 17 picks. He threw three or more touchdown passes on seven occasions and topped 300 yards six times. He also ran for 581 yards and another 8 TDs.
Saban may have been game planning all year to limit Watson but there is only so much you can do.
Bama will get their turnovers if Watson isn't careful Turnovers – It’s the last Watson passing stat that may decide the game.
The Tigers might have been elite in a number of areas this season, but turnover differential wasn't one of them. Clemson was a rather pedestrian +1 in turnover margin for the season, and would have been dead even were it not for a 3-2 edge vs. Ohio State.
Watson may have had a great game against Ohio State but he did throw 2 picks. For the season he finished second among FBS QBs in interceptions (17) and has thrown multiple picks in five different games this season.
Alabama finished tied for ninth in the FBS in turnovers forced at 27 - even with the Tigers – forcing three in their 24-7 triumph over Washington. In a game in which the Crimson Tide struggled to move the football (and got Kiffin canned) - those turnovers made the difference.
The Tigers might have been elite in a number of areas this season, but turnover differential wasn't one of them. Clemson was a rather pedestrian +1 in turnover margin for the season, and would have been dead even were it not for a 3-2 edge vs. Ohio State.
Watson may have had a great game against Ohio State but he did throw 2 picks. For the season he finished second among FBS QBs in interceptions (17) and has thrown multiple picks in five different games this season.
Alabama finished tied for ninth in the FBS in turnovers forced at 27 - even with the Tigers – forcing three in their 24-7 triumph over Washington. In a game in which the Crimson Tide struggled to move the football (and got Kiffin canned) - those turnovers made the difference.
Bama scored 15 non offensive TDs while the defense only allowed 16. And while Alabama and Clemson were even in forcing turnovers, the Crimson Tide took much better care of the football on offense, turning the ball over just 19 times. That +8 turnover differential was tied for the 17th-best rate in the FBS. Unlike Watson, Bama QB Jalen Hurts limits his mistakes; he had only nine interceptions on the season, and threw multiple picks just twice. Clemson doesn’t have a chance if they lose the turnover battle.
NOT - Non Offensive Touchdowns - All those forced turnovers lead to perhaps the most amazing stat of all in this game. Bama has scored 15 non offensive touchdowns, six pick sixes, five scoop sixes, three punt returns and one blocked punt return. No one else is even close.
It was a pick six that turned the game in Bama's favor last week against Washington. In what should be a tight defensive battle, Bama will win the game if they get a NOT.
NOT - Non Offensive Touchdowns - All those forced turnovers lead to perhaps the most amazing stat of all in this game. Bama has scored 15 non offensive touchdowns, six pick sixes, five scoop sixes, three punt returns and one blocked punt return. No one else is even close.
It was a pick six that turned the game in Bama's favor last week against Washington. In what should be a tight defensive battle, Bama will win the game if they get a NOT.
Trends and other stuff I find interesting - The public is betting Clemson big time. About 68% of the bets and 64% of the money is backing the Tigers. A full 85% of the money is on the under 51.5
Bama is 13-3 against Clemson including the last 13 in a row. The Tigers last won in 1905.
The Tide won 13 of their 14 games by double digit margins. They also held 12 of 14 foes to 16 points or fewer.
The Crimson Tide allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season;.
The betting trends favor the Tigers. Bama is only 7-10 ATS as a single digit favorite. Clemson has been a dog only twice this year both by a point. They won both games over Louisville and Ohio State. They are 13-4 as the dog going back to 2011.
I need the Tide to win to cash in on my pool. It's worth more than a Mega Bet and it's real money, not the quatloos I bet in the Big Book of Guesses. So I'll take the Tide for a Mega Bet (last chance of the season) and put a Mini Mega on the over. I like going against the public.
Turn away now Big Guy.......Is he looking away?
OK
Roll Tide
Bama is 13-3 against Clemson including the last 13 in a row. The Tigers last won in 1905.
The Tide won 13 of their 14 games by double digit margins. They also held 12 of 14 foes to 16 points or fewer.
The Crimson Tide allowed just three rushing touchdowns all season;.
The betting trends favor the Tigers. Bama is only 7-10 ATS as a single digit favorite. Clemson has been a dog only twice this year both by a point. They won both games over Louisville and Ohio State. They are 13-4 as the dog going back to 2011.
I need the Tide to win to cash in on my pool. It's worth more than a Mega Bet and it's real money, not the quatloos I bet in the Big Book of Guesses. So I'll take the Tide for a Mega Bet (last chance of the season) and put a Mini Mega on the over. I like going against the public.
Turn away now Big Guy.......Is he looking away?
OK
Roll Tide
