
Sully texted earlier this week. He was playing some golf with Hugh. In between lighting up some stogies and making liberal use of his foot wedge he wanted to know when the next issue of the Big Book of Guesses was coming out.
Damn, I was wondering if someone was going to call me out on that. It’s been far too long between updates.
The main reason is that work is actually making me do work! Imagine that. Having to actually work. Sure came as a surprise to me. Seems like something that important would have come up during orientation. I must have been dozing off during that module.
So I guess I’ll have to do the updates on my own time.
Lots of stuff to catch up on so I’ll start with the annual Coaches on the Hot Seat. By the time we overwhelm Vegas on the GO JUMBO eating, drinking, cigar smoking, football betting extravaganza many of these coaches will be running out the string. Nothing like fading teams that are giving up with 2-3 weeks to go.
Last year there were 11 coaches on the Hot Seat list of which 5 got fired. One (Tim Beckman – Illinois) didn’t even make it to the season. He got fired before the first kick off. His replacement, Interim HC Bill Cubit went 5-7, got an extension and then he was fired. A BOGO firing.
Of the six that made it through last year two are on this year’s first team 11 starting with:
Damn, I was wondering if someone was going to call me out on that. It’s been far too long between updates.
The main reason is that work is actually making me do work! Imagine that. Having to actually work. Sure came as a surprise to me. Seems like something that important would have come up during orientation. I must have been dozing off during that module.
So I guess I’ll have to do the updates on my own time.
Lots of stuff to catch up on so I’ll start with the annual Coaches on the Hot Seat. By the time we overwhelm Vegas on the GO JUMBO eating, drinking, cigar smoking, football betting extravaganza many of these coaches will be running out the string. Nothing like fading teams that are giving up with 2-3 weeks to go.
Last year there were 11 coaches on the Hot Seat list of which 5 got fired. One (Tim Beckman – Illinois) didn’t even make it to the season. He got fired before the first kick off. His replacement, Interim HC Bill Cubit went 5-7, got an extension and then he was fired. A BOGO firing.
Of the six that made it through last year two are on this year’s first team 11 starting with:
Darell Hazell - Purdue | Purdue may have the ugliest campus this side of Ann Arbor and it’s fan base may consist of second rate Boiler Engineers (do they even make boilers any more?) and pumpkin growing farm girls looking for their MRS but they can field a winning team every once in awhile. Joe Tiller led them to 10 bowl games in 12 years and 5 Top 25 finishes. Not so with Hazell. Since parlaying one good year at Kent State into a shot at the Big Time he has failed miserably. After three years, he is 6-30 overall and 2-22 in the Big Ten – the worst overall record ever at Purdue. Seventeen of the 22 BIG losses have been by double digits. This despite playing in the Little Sister Big Ten West. Hazell’s predecessor, Danny Hope was fired after back to back .500 seasons and bowl games. Which means that Hazell has won as many games in three years as Hope did in his final year. His teams are awful due to poor coaching and lack of talent. And there is no talent in the pipeline as the recruiting has been pathetic. Hazell would have been fired at the end of 2015 except for a massive buyout clause. It drops by $2 million in December. He’ll likely get a nice pink slip to start the New Year. |
Paul Haynes - Kent State | While Hazell has gone 6-30 at Purdue, his successor at Kent State has fared only marginally better going 9-26. Not much is expected at Kent State. Hazell’s one good year in 2012 was the only time they have gone bowling since 1973. But even the Flashers have some standards. Losing at least 8 games every year is not the path to job security. Worse yet is how they lose. Kent State 128th, dead last, in yards per play last year. The offense is an abomination. I mean if you are going to lose – make it entertaining Being held to under 10 points six times last year including getting skunked three times is not going to put fannies in the seats. Having to play at Alabama and Penn State will add to those miserable stats but at least the will put money into the Kent State coffers to fund his buy out. |
Mark Stoops - Kentucky | Kentucky doesn’t expect much when it comes to football. It’s just a distraction until basketball tips off. The problem with Stoops is that he starts off really well while fans are still paying attention and then falls flat on his WildCat. In 2014, Stoops went 5-1 and then went winless. In 2015 it was a 4-1 start and 1-5 finish. And to really punish the fan base, Kentucky led 24-7 at the half against arch rival Louisville only to fall 38-24 to finish the season. Overall, Stoops is now 8-24 against Div 1A teams and 4-20 in the SEC despite playing in the SEC's version of the BIG West - the SEC East. Recruiting is better but the performance hasn’t picked up. If Stoops lasts until 2017 it because of his $12 million buy out. Kentucky would rather use the money to buy.. I mean recruit basketball players. |
Mike MacIntyre - Colorado | Colorado has never been bowling since joining the Pac 12 in 2012. It doesn’t look like MacIntyre will get them there either. In fact, The Buffs have finished in last place in the Pac 12 South every year under his watch. MacIntyre is now 10-27 overall - never winning more than four games in a year. In league play he is a paltry 2-25. Even more frustrating is that Colorado is getting close to more wins. Five of last year’s losses were by one score. It's affecting recruiting too. When star QB Sefo Liufau looked like he might be out for the season due to a foot injury, MacIntyre tried to nab Texas Tech grad Davis Webb. He committed but then bolted for Cal. Fortunately Liufau is cleared to play. If MacIntyre doesn’t change a few of the close losses into wins the Buffs will be turning the page. |
Charlie Strong - Texas | Everything is bigger in Texas, especially football. The Texas Longhorns are the biggest and most profitable school in the Power 5. They have their own television network, the backing of hundreds of boosters and reside in one of the top five most football talent-rich states in the country. No expectations here – just make the playoffs every year. And with that kind of pressure, Longhorns head coach Charlie Strong has been on the hot seat since almost day one. It’s only gotten worse. Strong is now 9-9 in the conference and 11-14 overall. It’s the worst two year start in Austin since Dana Bible in 1938. His teams have been erratic losing 24-0 to an Iowa State team that went 3-9 yet were able to beat Oklahoma despite being 17 point underdogs. It’s that win which probably got him one more year. Strong needed to improve its 118th ranked passing offense so he poached OC Sterlin Gilbert from Tulsa. Gilbert tutored under Dina Babers and will bring an up tempo Big 12 offense to Texas. Strong needs to win at least 9 games this year or the AD and the boosters will be taking a semi load of cash down to Houston to lure away Tom Herman |
Kevin Sumlin - Texas A&M | There’s another Hot Seat Coach in the Lone Star State. At Texas’ old arch rival Texas A&M, Kevin Sumlin is feeling the heat. And it started out so well too. In his first year, the Aggies joined the SEC, went 11-2 and ended up ranked 5th with a Heisman Trophy winner under center. It looked like A&M was going to overturn the pecking order in the SEC West. But it didn’t turn out that way. Since Johnny Football left for the NFL, the Aggies are just 16-10 and 7-9 in SEC play - finishing no better than fifth in the SEC West. What’s worse is all the turmoil in College Station. Once known as the Quarterback Whisperer Sumlin had not one but two high profile QBs leave the program last year. Kyle Allen transferred to Sumlin’s old school Houston while Kyler Murray left for Oklahoma. Sumlin got a warning shot across the bow when A&M fired AD Eric Hyman with the rumor being he was to “pro-Sumlin” It will take a double digit win season and being competitive in the SEC West or else even Sumlin’s $15 million buyout (payable in 60 days no less) won’t save him. |
Gus Malzahn - Auburn | The sure do have short memories at Auburn. It was just two years ago that Gus was 13 seconds away from winning the National Championship game and now he is on the Hot Seat. Then again, Gene Chizik won the National Championship and was gone in two years. Tommy Tuberville and Terry Bowden had undefeated seasons and were eventually shown the door. Since that 2012 11-2 NC run, Malzahn’s teams have regressed going 8-5 and then 7-6 last year. They needed an overtime win over Div 1AA Jacksonville State just to become bowl eligible. Over the last two years they are 4-14 in SEC play. Last year was a real puzzler. After starting the season at #6 and heavily hyping QB Jeremy Johnson, the Tigers went into a tailspin. Johnson started throwing picks and the running game imploded. And bringing in Will Muschamp to shore up the defense didn't exactly pan out either. Yet, at least Muschamp was still able to leverage his reputation into the South Carolina HC gig. But what really puts Malzahn on the hot seat is watching the Tide roll over the Tigers at Jordan-Hare and Saban hoisting another National Championship trophy. That doesn’t sit too well on the Plains. Auburn doesn’t need to win the SEC West. Just be competitive and win 9-10 games and Malzahn should get another year. |
Les Miles - LSU | No one is feeling the heat to beat St Nick more than Les Miles. National Championship – check SEC titles – check 10 wins per season – check It’s not enough. All they know down in Red Stick is that Saban has beaten the Les 5 straight times. Miles is already living on borrowed time after a November from hell. To recap – word got out that LSU Miles was coaching for his job down the stretch. The story wouldn’t have gone out without the tacit approval of the AD Joe Alleva. On Monday before the last game the rumor was that he would be gone by the end of the day. Alleva left Miles hanging in the wind. It was later revealed that Miles held onto his job after a halftime decision by the administration in the last game – a 19-7 win against A&M. After the game the fans were chanting to keep Miles and Miles interrupted the post game interview to sing the LSU alma mater. He got one more year. LSU has probably the second best talented team in the SEC after Bama led by Heisman Trophy candidate RB Leonard Fournette. The task is simple really – beat Bama and win the SEC. Anything less will have the boosters ponying up to cash out his $12.9 million buyout. |
Dana Holgorsen - West Virginia | Like Malzahn, Holgorsen started lights out at West Virginia only to drop into mediocrity land. In his first year in 2011, he went 10-3 in the old Big East ending the year in an epic 70-33 blowout of Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Since moving over to the Big 12 in 2012 his teams have basically flatlined. The Mountaineers are 26-25 overall and 15-21 in league play. New AD Shane Lyons inherited Holgorsen at the beginning of 2015 and wasn’t impressed. After a year that included four straight losses to the best teams in the Big 12 (Oklahoma, Okie State, Baylor and TCU) he decided to not extend Holgorsen’s contract which expires in 2017. Holgorsen has be unable to recruit a big time QB and that will now be even more difficult with such a short leash. Unless the Neers can start beating the cream of the Big 12 and move to the top half of the standings there will be a new HC roaming the sidelines in Morgantown. |
Jim Grobe - Baylor | Grobe sure did walk into a big time piece of crap. After a massive sexual assault scandal brought down the Chancellor, AD and mega-a$$hole HC Art Briles, Grobe was brought in to stabilize the situation. It will be a daunting task with recruits and players bolting left and right and morale in the tanks. Grobe was brought in because, well, he has a stellar reputation and frankly, not many coaches were available after the Coaching Carousel had long since wound down. Baylor hasn’t helped the situation by naming Grobe “acting” HC instead of “interim. Tough to restart recruiting when no one is certain you will be around more than one season. For Grobe to keep his job more than one year he will need to keep the bottom from falling out. Easier said than done |
Steve Addazio Boston College | While the ACC has stepped up its game with Clemson, FSU and Louisville going to be real good this year – BC is regressing. The Eagles were 7-6 in 2013 and 2014 but fell to 3-9 and winless in the ACC last year. The defense was fantastic under DC Don Brown but the offense was horrific. They averaged less than 15 points a game including four with less than 10 points. The worst was a mind numbing 3-0 win over Wake Forest. A game where Addazio changed his QB three times in the same drive! Not only will the offense need to improve but Addazio needs to replace his DC who left for Michigan. The Eagles will need to get to a bowl again. The schedule is favorable with an easy out of conference slate and an ACC schedule with doormats like Syracuse and Wake. The game against NC State could be “save your job” game for both Addazio and NC State HC Dave Doeren |
The second team Hot Seat Coaches roster looks like this
James Franklin - Penn State | Franklin has to show he is more than a recruiting charlatan. The regression of QB Christian Hackenberg have many doubting his coaching and player development chops |
Butch Jones - Tennessee | Jones has so far survived a Title IX scandal but unless he wins the SEC East he is out the door |
Paul Johnson - Georgia Tech | Johnson followed up an 11 win season and Orange Bowl win with an ugly 3-9 season last year. Another one of those and it will be the end of the triple option on the Flats |
Derek Mason - Vanderbilt | Mason has Vanderbilt back to being the punching bag they always were. After back to back 9 win seasons under James Franklin, Mason has gone 7-17. |
Dave Clawson - Wake Forest | Wake was trending down before Clawson arrived winning 6 then 5 then 4 games. Two straight 3-9 seasons isn't exactly a turnaround |
Paul Petrino - Idaho | Petrino has won 6 games in three years. The Vandals have already decided to drop down to Div 1AA in 2017. They may want a new HC then too |
Ron Caragher - San Jose State | A win over Georgia State in the prestigious Orlando Cure Bowl probably bought Caragher one more year. Overall he is 16-22 and needs a winning season in order to continue to lead the other Spartans |
Ron Turner - Florida International | Turner has made some improvements with a third straight year of more wins. But he still went 5-7 last year and is 10-26 overall. Any slippage and he is out the door in Dade County |
Dave Doeren - NC State | Doeren needs a signature win. Back to back winning seasons is nice but now he needs to stop feeding on the little sisters of the poor and beat one of the Big Dogs. |
Brad Lambert - UNC Charlotte | Lambert is the only coach that Charlotte has ever had starting the program from the ground up in 2013. He went 5-6 two straight years in Div 1AA and then when the program got promoted to Div 1A the 49ers fell to 2-10. Other programs have advanced at a faster pace. |
Chris Creighton - Eastern Michigan | Should be interesting to see which is dropped first - Creightons contract or football in Ypsilanti. Creighton is 3-21 with the Hurons |