I’m just recovering from the late night game fest parties with the boys. Haven’t had the time or energy to make any picks this week. Good thing too. It’s been upset city in the bowls this week.
Things were going pretty good in the bowl picks. I had risen to 3rd (out of 135 in the pool) in potential points with my heart picks. Then Wednesday hit. All my big point picks went down – Temple, then Washington State and finally Boise State. Fortunately, pretty much everyone else had them as high point picks.
As of this morning I have only fallen to 14th. Still got a shot. I even have room to root for FSU over Michigan but there isn’t much room for error. Leonard Fournette’s decision to forego the Citrus Bowl doesn’t help. I’m one of the few to pick LSU and I put a full 29 points on the Tigers. If they win, I should be sitting pretty.
Time to make some picks against the spread starting. One trend to point out is how well the underdogs are doing lately. Starting on Saturday, the dogs are 9-3.
Things were going pretty good in the bowl picks. I had risen to 3rd (out of 135 in the pool) in potential points with my heart picks. Then Wednesday hit. All my big point picks went down – Temple, then Washington State and finally Boise State. Fortunately, pretty much everyone else had them as high point picks.
As of this morning I have only fallen to 14th. Still got a shot. I even have room to root for FSU over Michigan but there isn’t much room for error. Leonard Fournette’s decision to forego the Citrus Bowl doesn’t help. I’m one of the few to pick LSU and I put a full 29 points on the Tigers. If they win, I should be sitting pretty.
Time to make some picks against the spread starting. One trend to point out is how well the underdogs are doing lately. Starting on Saturday, the dogs are 9-3.
Belk Bowl – Va Tech -7.0 vs Arkansas [Pick 1 – VT 27] [Pick 2 – VT 11] –This is a game I can pick the trending underdogs and afford a loss. Other players have more points on the Hokies so if they lose I actually move up to tied for 7th.
Arkansas is balanced. Not in the normal way of run versus pass (surprisingly the Hogs were much better passing than rushing). No it was in the way the season went. After winning their first two, including a 41-28 win over TCU, Arkansas went win, loss, win, loss…., ending the season with a bad loss to Missouri. When it was all said and done, the Hogs averaged 30.8 points of offense and let up 30.8 points per game. And it made Bielema 25-25 in his four years in Fayetteville. Balanced.
One thing unbalanced for the Hogs is their record against ranked teams. Under the Big Boy there are 7-18. 22nd ranked Va Tech comes in after an oh so close loss to playoff bound Clemson in the ACC championship. The Hokies are led by QB Jerod Evans who threw for over 3,300 yards, 27 TDs against only 7 picks. He also led Va Tech in rushing with 759 yards with another 10 TDs.
While both teams are explosive on offense, Va Tech has the better defense. Arkansas ended up 75th ranked. They were especially vunerable against the run allowing 209 yards per game - 95th overall. Va Tech allowed 148 yards per game on the ground (44th) and finished 19th overall on defense.
Neither team is doing well for bettors. Bielema went 4-4 ATS as a dog this year. Fuentes went 1-4 as a favorite though he is on a 3 game winning streak ATS.
There have been too many upsets lately for me to lay the points so I’ll take Arkansas to cover but no quatloos. Just for fun I’ll put a quatloo on the over 61.5.
Arkansas is balanced. Not in the normal way of run versus pass (surprisingly the Hogs were much better passing than rushing). No it was in the way the season went. After winning their first two, including a 41-28 win over TCU, Arkansas went win, loss, win, loss…., ending the season with a bad loss to Missouri. When it was all said and done, the Hogs averaged 30.8 points of offense and let up 30.8 points per game. And it made Bielema 25-25 in his four years in Fayetteville. Balanced.
One thing unbalanced for the Hogs is their record against ranked teams. Under the Big Boy there are 7-18. 22nd ranked Va Tech comes in after an oh so close loss to playoff bound Clemson in the ACC championship. The Hokies are led by QB Jerod Evans who threw for over 3,300 yards, 27 TDs against only 7 picks. He also led Va Tech in rushing with 759 yards with another 10 TDs.
While both teams are explosive on offense, Va Tech has the better defense. Arkansas ended up 75th ranked. They were especially vunerable against the run allowing 209 yards per game - 95th overall. Va Tech allowed 148 yards per game on the ground (44th) and finished 19th overall on defense.
Neither team is doing well for bettors. Bielema went 4-4 ATS as a dog this year. Fuentes went 1-4 as a favorite though he is on a 3 game winning streak ATS.
There have been too many upsets lately for me to lay the points so I’ll take Arkansas to cover but no quatloos. Just for fun I’ll put a quatloo on the over 61.5.
Alamo Bowl – Colorado -2.5 vs Oklahoma State [Pick 1 – Colo 13] [Pick 2 – Colo 21] - Colorado had one of the best, of not the best turnarounds on football this year. After going 5-40 in PAC 12 play, the Buffalos went 8-1 (10-3 overall) winning the PAC 12 South.
There were a lot of reasons for the turnarounds. A primary one was the defense. Despite facing a slew of pass happy teams like Washington State, Colorado finished in the top 20 nationally in total defense (328.3 yards allowed), scoring (20.5 points) and passing defense (182.5) while also recording 26 takeaways (tied for seventh nationally).
The offense revolves around the oft injured QB Sefo Liufau. He battled injuries/failed to finish in all three Buff losses. He’s healthy after a month’s rest.
They will be facing off against an old Big Eight foe, Oklahoma State. It’s the Cowboys so there’s going to be plenty of offense. The Pokes were one of only six FBS teams with a 3,500-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver. They averaged 492.1 yards (17th nationally) and 38.7 points (19th) per game.
The Cowboys’ defense was a sieve, surrendering 457.0 yards (108th FBS) and 28.1 points (tied for 65th) per contest. But it did force 24 turnovers and ranked ninth with a plus-10 turnover differential.
As you can expect, with the turnaround Colorado did well ATS spread going 10-3. OSU went 2-2 ATS as the dog.
I’ll take the Colorado and their defense in this game for a quatloo and another on the over 63.0
There were a lot of reasons for the turnarounds. A primary one was the defense. Despite facing a slew of pass happy teams like Washington State, Colorado finished in the top 20 nationally in total defense (328.3 yards allowed), scoring (20.5 points) and passing defense (182.5) while also recording 26 takeaways (tied for seventh nationally).
The offense revolves around the oft injured QB Sefo Liufau. He battled injuries/failed to finish in all three Buff losses. He’s healthy after a month’s rest.
They will be facing off against an old Big Eight foe, Oklahoma State. It’s the Cowboys so there’s going to be plenty of offense. The Pokes were one of only six FBS teams with a 3,500-yard passer, 1,000-yard rusher and 1,000-yard receiver. They averaged 492.1 yards (17th nationally) and 38.7 points (19th) per game.
The Cowboys’ defense was a sieve, surrendering 457.0 yards (108th FBS) and 28.1 points (tied for 65th) per contest. But it did force 24 turnovers and ranked ninth with a plus-10 turnover differential.
As you can expect, with the turnaround Colorado did well ATS spread going 10-3. OSU went 2-2 ATS as the dog.
I’ll take the Colorado and their defense in this game for a quatloo and another on the over 63.0