
It's here! It really is here! After months of wading through the NBA, MLB and the NHL it's time to get down to the one true and only sport - football!!
Ellis hosted a get together on his deck Saturday in order for us to get into drinking shape for the season. Dobby had wimped out by the time I had arrived but Chris,Bruce, Ellis and I more than made up for his share.
Since only preseason NFL games were being played (the excitement of that wears off after week 1) Chris and I got Ellis and Bruce hooked on a a Candid Camera type magic show called the Carbonaro Effect. If you haven't seen it - give it a shot. It's hilarious. It's on TruTV.
Since the Doofus Deck is still on an extended sabbatical I asked if anyone was going to host the the Week 1 games. Chris has done an outstanding job filling in but he is going back to the Motherland this weekend. Ellis volunteered to host but seemed less than fully committed. Of course, when he was volunteering, his alarm to take his meds had been going off for a full five minutes so that may have been a factor. Hopefully when his body reaches some sort of equilibrium, he will remember his commitment.
Mike and I continued the preseason training drinking regime at an Irish Pub on Wednesday. There weren't any games on but there was trivia. We were humbled. We did pretty good on sports and history but the music trivia was targeted towards our kids and grandkids. We got maybe one answer right. We booed the Trivia Master on his selection. We'll be back with kids in tow next time.
But enough drivel - It's time for some football
And what better way to get things going than with some Spartan Hype Videos - starting with some great stuff from last year
Ellis hosted a get together on his deck Saturday in order for us to get into drinking shape for the season. Dobby had wimped out by the time I had arrived but Chris,Bruce, Ellis and I more than made up for his share.
Since only preseason NFL games were being played (the excitement of that wears off after week 1) Chris and I got Ellis and Bruce hooked on a a Candid Camera type magic show called the Carbonaro Effect. If you haven't seen it - give it a shot. It's hilarious. It's on TruTV.
Since the Doofus Deck is still on an extended sabbatical I asked if anyone was going to host the the Week 1 games. Chris has done an outstanding job filling in but he is going back to the Motherland this weekend. Ellis volunteered to host but seemed less than fully committed. Of course, when he was volunteering, his alarm to take his meds had been going off for a full five minutes so that may have been a factor. Hopefully when his body reaches some sort of equilibrium, he will remember his commitment.
Mike and I continued the preseason training drinking regime at an Irish Pub on Wednesday. There weren't any games on but there was trivia. We were humbled. We did pretty good on sports and history but the music trivia was targeted towards our kids and grandkids. We got maybe one answer right. We booed the Trivia Master on his selection. We'll be back with kids in tow next time.
But enough drivel - It's time for some football
And what better way to get things going than with some Spartan Hype Videos - starting with some great stuff from last year
And how about a look at the Dantonio era
Now I am officially geeked.
All right, after months of analyzing all the teams, new coaches, coaches on the hot seat (one of which is in the bag when Tim Beckman got fired before the season - a new low), it's time to figure out if I know what the hell I'm talking about. Probably not - but I'll keep talking. It's what I do.
So here are the very first Mega Bets of the 2015 season.
Early in the season, I tend to have good luck taking good Non Power 5 teams playing Power 5 teams and getting tons of points. In fact, last year I won a couple of Point Whore Parlays using this strategy - so I will start there with
Arkansas State +27.5 @ Southern Cal - I can hear Mrs. Sheriff cheering all the way out here.
Arkansas State is a stopping point for offensive master minds to hone their craft before getting a promotion to the big leagues. Gus Malzahn (Auburn), Hugh Freeze (Mississippi) and Bryan Harsin (Boise State) all made quick stops in Jonesboro before moving to more lucrative pastures. 2nd year HC Blake Anderrson has outdid them all - putting up more yards and more points than those before him. This year, he returns his QB, virtually everyone in the WR corp, his top two RBs and three OL. The Red Wolves will challenge a USC defense that was a wee bit disappointing last year.
USC may also be a bit distracted after HC Steve Sarkisian showed up all Doofus at big donor gathering. He sort of apologized and blamed it on some of Ellis' meds. USC should be able to move the ball against an Arkansas State defense that was a sieve. The Red Wolves do return a ton of starters on the D but need significant improvement on that side of the ball to be competitive this year.
USC is no dummy, they set the game time for 11:00 eastern to try and take advantage of the time zone difference. All in, Arkansas State should be able to score enough to keep the game within 4 TDs.
UL Monroe +36.0 @ Georgia - And that other cheer is Mrs. Bruce agreeing with the pick.
UL Monroe appears to be going in reverse. They went from 8-5 to 6-6 to a woeful 4-8 last year. But a closer look shows that they lost by 6 or fewer points in their last five losses including a 21-16 loss to Texas A&M in College Station. ULM has problems but they did OK on defense finishing 47th overall. Nine starters return including a talented secondary. ULM will focus on stopping star RB Nick Chubb and try to get Virginia transfer QB Greyson Lambert to win it through the air. With a new OC and a new QB, Georgia's aerial attack is going to be a work in progress which will keep ULM in the game.
No doubt, ULM offense will struggle against a solid Dawg defense. But they will run just enough trick plays to keep things interesting. The WarHawks will keep this one within 5 TDs
Arizona State +4.0 vs Texas A&M (neutral site - Houston) - Enough with the obscure teams trying to stay within 30 points. Time for a marquis match up. It's the first meeting ever between these two and they're playing in prime time. Should be a great game.
Arizona State had back to back 10 win seasons with the second youngest team in Div 1A last year. They are set up to do even better. Both these teams are explosive on offense but ASU is better defensively. ASU returns virtually their entire 2 deep on defense while Texas A&M had to bring in a new DC to try and turn around the defense.
A&M's production dropped off after Kenny "Thrill" Trill got suspended. Replacement freshman QB Kyle Allen went 3-2 while yardage and points per game sagged. HC Kevin Sumlin replaced his OC too in order to goose production.
ASU has the better offense and defense and is getting points. Sounds like a winner to me
Here are all of the games, spreads, times, TV stations, records against the spread, picks by the Doofus and much much more
All right, after months of analyzing all the teams, new coaches, coaches on the hot seat (one of which is in the bag when Tim Beckman got fired before the season - a new low), it's time to figure out if I know what the hell I'm talking about. Probably not - but I'll keep talking. It's what I do.
So here are the very first Mega Bets of the 2015 season.
Early in the season, I tend to have good luck taking good Non Power 5 teams playing Power 5 teams and getting tons of points. In fact, last year I won a couple of Point Whore Parlays using this strategy - so I will start there with
Arkansas State +27.5 @ Southern Cal - I can hear Mrs. Sheriff cheering all the way out here.
Arkansas State is a stopping point for offensive master minds to hone their craft before getting a promotion to the big leagues. Gus Malzahn (Auburn), Hugh Freeze (Mississippi) and Bryan Harsin (Boise State) all made quick stops in Jonesboro before moving to more lucrative pastures. 2nd year HC Blake Anderrson has outdid them all - putting up more yards and more points than those before him. This year, he returns his QB, virtually everyone in the WR corp, his top two RBs and three OL. The Red Wolves will challenge a USC defense that was a wee bit disappointing last year.
USC may also be a bit distracted after HC Steve Sarkisian showed up all Doofus at big donor gathering. He sort of apologized and blamed it on some of Ellis' meds. USC should be able to move the ball against an Arkansas State defense that was a sieve. The Red Wolves do return a ton of starters on the D but need significant improvement on that side of the ball to be competitive this year.
USC is no dummy, they set the game time for 11:00 eastern to try and take advantage of the time zone difference. All in, Arkansas State should be able to score enough to keep the game within 4 TDs.
UL Monroe +36.0 @ Georgia - And that other cheer is Mrs. Bruce agreeing with the pick.
UL Monroe appears to be going in reverse. They went from 8-5 to 6-6 to a woeful 4-8 last year. But a closer look shows that they lost by 6 or fewer points in their last five losses including a 21-16 loss to Texas A&M in College Station. ULM has problems but they did OK on defense finishing 47th overall. Nine starters return including a talented secondary. ULM will focus on stopping star RB Nick Chubb and try to get Virginia transfer QB Greyson Lambert to win it through the air. With a new OC and a new QB, Georgia's aerial attack is going to be a work in progress which will keep ULM in the game.
No doubt, ULM offense will struggle against a solid Dawg defense. But they will run just enough trick plays to keep things interesting. The WarHawks will keep this one within 5 TDs
Arizona State +4.0 vs Texas A&M (neutral site - Houston) - Enough with the obscure teams trying to stay within 30 points. Time for a marquis match up. It's the first meeting ever between these two and they're playing in prime time. Should be a great game.
Arizona State had back to back 10 win seasons with the second youngest team in Div 1A last year. They are set up to do even better. Both these teams are explosive on offense but ASU is better defensively. ASU returns virtually their entire 2 deep on defense while Texas A&M had to bring in a new DC to try and turn around the defense.
A&M's production dropped off after Kenny "Thrill" Trill got suspended. Replacement freshman QB Kyle Allen went 3-2 while yardage and points per game sagged. HC Kevin Sumlin replaced his OC too in order to goose production.
ASU has the better offense and defense and is getting points. Sounds like a winner to me
Here are all of the games, spreads, times, TV stations, records against the spread, picks by the Doofus and much much more

weekly_predictions_week_1_2015.xlsx |
Early in the season there are lots of Point Whore Parlay candidates but this week I used most of the up on the Mega Bets.
Finally - Mike and I were discussing a pool for the GO JUMBO trip. Something along the lines of pick who you will think will be in the Top 10 the Week of Nov 7th. Details to come out next week.
Remember the GO JUMBO trip is Nov 7th at the Westgate (aka the LVH)
Finally - Mike and I were discussing a pool for the GO JUMBO trip. Something along the lines of pick who you will think will be in the Top 10 the Week of Nov 7th. Details to come out next week.
Remember the GO JUMBO trip is Nov 7th at the Westgate (aka the LVH)