2015 Vegas Win Totals - Part 3

For Part 3 of the Vegas Win Totals, we will take a look at the Big 12. 

But not before we take a look at a video lnk Mike passed along http://www.snappytv.com/tc/567982

The Big 12 has decided that no change is best for the conference. A year after claiming there would be "One True Champion" and then trying to say there were two - the Big 12 stayed put. The lack of a championship game meant that both Baylor and TCU were leapfrogged in the new College Football Playoffs. 

Many teams are being bandied about as possible additions (Houston, Memphis, BYU, Boise State) to bring the total number of teams up to the conference name but for now there will be no additions. 

Knowing that at least one conference from the Power Five will be shutout each year of the Playoffs, perhaps the Big 12 should consider scheduling at least one Power Five non- conference opponent each season (similar to the SEC). Or, perhaps eliminate Div 1AA foes altogether from the schedule.

That said, the scheduling is not that bad. A total of 53 percent (16-of-30) of the Big 12’s non-conference games were against foes that participated in bowls, including two in the College Football Playoff semifinals. And Big 12 teams will play 21 teams in 2015 non- conference play who finished .500 or better in 2014. 

As a recap here are the win total lines and a comparison to last year's actual wins

Baylor

Art Briles has done one hell of a turnaround. After suffering through 14 consecutive losing seasons, he has led the Bears to five straight winning campaigns for the first time since 1935-39.

Now he comes into the season with a huge chip on his shoulder. Not only did Baylor get passed over in the inaugural BCS playoffs, he then blew a bowl game in his own back yard when Michigan State made a come back for the ages in last years Cotton Bowl. 

And to make matters worse for the other teams in the Big 12, the Bears return with a vengenace. They have 18 players returning including players with 234 returning starts in 2015 – the most in the conference (and sixth most in the nation). The offense returns nine starters from last years number one offense in yards and points. But they do need to replace QB Bryce Petty.

The defense used to be an after thought in Waco but now is a strength behind returning DE Shawn Oakman. THe Bears finished 16th against the run last year and should do even better. 

Looking at the schedule - Vegas spots you a loss @ TCU but where is the other loss? @ Kansas State would be the next most likely then home games versus Texas or Oklahoma. I'm not buying it. I'll take the OVER

Head Coach Paul Rhoads is firmly on the Hot Seat this year. Going into his seventh season he has had one winning season (his first season in 2009) and has gone 5-19 over the last two years. 

The offense was awful last year finishing 92 overall (99th in points scored) “The offensive line has been absolutely devastated by injuries the last two years, and I don’t use the word devastated lightly,” said Rhoads. As a result, this year’s unit features six players who have a combined 61 career starts.

The defense was worse finishing 128th (that's right - dead last). I know the Big 12 points up numbers but c'mon - dead last? The DL was a huge culprit - two starters were dismissed from the team prior to the season, and the injury bug bit real hard. But that's what losing coaches do - blame injuries. Freshmen were forced into action and others played out of position to help fill the void. The Cyclones hope that the ensuing experience will reap major rewards  in 2015. 

Can they get three or more wins? If they are it will be against Northern Iowa, Kansas and @ Toledo. Maybe against arch rival Iowa too. They seem t have the Hawkeyes number winning three of the last four years. I'm going with three wins and Rhoads being thrown to the curb at the end of the year. I'll PASS.

Kansas

Former Texas A&M wide receivers coach David Beaty is the latest in line of six different Kansas head coaches over the last seven years. Beaty’s lineage traces back to Kansas where he was the wide receivers coach in 2008 and 2009. Beaty decided to help navigate his rookie season by retaining DC Clint Bowen, a 20-year veteran with the team and interim head coach last season after Ol' Front Butt, Charlie Weis, resigned after the first four games of the 2014 campaign. 

Weis’ went the desperate JUCO route which didn't work at all and as a result, Beaty inherits a bare cupboard.  KU defenses which finished 108th overall (106th in points allowed) loses 10 of its top 13 tacklers on defense. The offense was wrose finishing 118th overall (also 188th in points scored) and loses its top three WR’s plus the entire left side of the OL. The miserable record in the Big 12 is likely to continue. The Jayhawks are 3-48 in their last 51 conference games. 

Can they get to two wins? Kansas faces 10 bowl teams from last year. If they get to 2 it will be against South Dakota State (don't sleep on the Jack Rabbits - they made it to the 2nd round of the Div 1AA playoffs before losing to eventual champs ND State 27-24) and what could be one of the worst match ups of the year @ Iowa State. Kansas is going to be awful but I don't want to bet on them to beat ISU to get to 2 wins. I'll PASS

Kansas State

For the third straight season, Kansas State will be one of only five teams to be coached by the same 10 full-time coaches. The staff brings 243 years of combined coaching experience to the field. It's continuity like that that has propelled Bill Snyder to 187 career wins with the Wildcats, 148 more than any other coach in program history. It’s also a major reason why Kansas State owns the best record (27-9) of all Big 12 teams the past three seasons.

Last year, KSU got away from their ball control game by letting QB Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett go wild. The offense had pop but the defense suffered. The Wildcats lost three of their last five games giving up nearly 40 points per game in the three losses. 

The question this year is who steps up at QB? Snyder said four guys are still in the running. Regardless of who it is, the QB will need to get back to that old style of run the ball and control the clock. 

If they do, the defense will get back to normal and everything should be all right. Keep in mind that only three times in school history has Kansas State suffered a losing season after a bowl trip the previous year. And here's another- since 1990, Kansas State is 173-5 when leading at the half, including 47 wins in a row – the nation’s longest streak. 

Looking at the schedule - can the Wildcats get to eight wins? With South Dakota, UT San Antonio and La Tech to start, KSU should be 3-0 going into their first bye. Late November games against Iowa State and Kansas gets you to five. TCU and Baylor are at home but let's assume those are losses. Which means they need to go 3-2 against @ Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, @ Texas, @ Texas Tech and West Virginia. With a rookie QB I say they win 3 and get the push. I'll PASS

Oklahoma

Well, that sure was disappointing. After coming into the 2014 season with a decisive bowl win over Alabama, the Sooners lost 4 of their last seven games resulting in a rare 5-loss season. To cap it off the 40-6 bowl loss to Clemson was every bit as bad as the score indicated.

But there is hope. Oklahoma was the only team in the nation to rank in the Top 10 in both rushing offense and rushing defense last season. And this year, there are three quarterbacks on the roster that have all started and won a game for the Sooners, along with RB Samaje Perine (The Big 12's leading rusher as a freshman last year) in the backfield. But will Oklahoma stay with the ground game? New OC Lincoln Riley comes from East Carolina with a reputation of winging it around.

And sure the defense was stout against the run but the pass defense was abysmal ranking 117th overall. The Big 12 has some potent offenses but c'mon. That's bad. 

The Sooners have a great track record after disappoining seasons. Stoops is 36-5 combined the following season with OU after losing four or more games the previous year. And here's another interesting stat - the Sooners are 25-0 SU in the regular season in games off a loss since 2003. 

So can they win nine games or more importantly lose 3 or less? A win against Baylor would help. Until RGIII came along Oklhoma was 19-0 against the Bears. But assuming a loss in Waco and another at home against TCU, they can only lose one more amongst Texas in the Red River Shootout, @ Tennessee or @ Kansas State. If the pass defense is struggling, West Virginia could give OU a scare too. I'm going with the offense in transistion with Riley calling the plays and Perine getting under utilized. I'll take the UNDER

Oklahoma State

There’s an old adage in sports that players make their greatest strides from their first year to their second year. Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State are betting that will hold true in 2015. The Cowboys fielded the least-experienced team in the nation last year with 35 underclassmen in the two deep, The new kids on the block started the season nearly clipping the defending champs Florida State in the opener and then finished the season with a buzz with victories over Oklahoma and Washington. Now the Pokes welcome back 17 returning starters (and they return 19 players that started six or more games last year).

The offensive line needs to make the biggest strides. Last year they gave up 40 sacks (113th) and could only manage 3.5 yards per rushing attempt (99th). 

The red zone defense needs to improve too. Last year OSU allowed 41 scores on 48 attempts ranking 86th. 

Vegas is assuming the second year improvement as they upped the win total to 7.5 from last year's six wins. And the schedule is favorable with With Kansas State, TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma all at home. I look for wins to start the season over Central Michigan, Central Arkansas and UT San Antonio. Then the big question - can the beat Texas to open Big 12 play? There are wins later on against Kansas and Iowa State. Beat Texas and 7.5 should be a lay up. Mike Gundy is a good coach. He'll get eight wins. I'll take the OVER

Now that was impressive! TCU bounced back off a rare losing effort in 2013 to being within one fourth down play from being in the playoffs. Gary Patterson welcomes no less than 62 lettermen, including 10 returning starters from the offense, back in 2015. And to make matters worse for the 12 opponents dotting their schedule, the Frogs will be playing with a large chip on their shoulder after being shunned by the playoff committee last season (Ole Miss sampled a taste of it in last year’s Peach Bowl), 

Can they keep it going? Having the player of the year in QB Trevone Boykin return is a good start. Returning 4 of your top 5 rushers and all three top receivers back helps too. 

Patterson always has good defenses and last year had the 8th best overall and ranked number 2 in points allowed. This year he needs to replace all of his LBs and CB Kevin White. Tough task but he is up to it. 

Can the Horned Frogs get 10 wins? Things look favorable as TCU will face the softest schedule of all Big 12 teams in 2015. Vegas spots a loss with Baylor ( a home game and not a given) so where is the second? The opener @ Minnesota will be fun but should go TCU's way. @ Kansas State should be the next biggest obstacle in the Big 12 then @ Oklahoma. I'm not buying it. I'll go with the OVER

Texas

Expectations sure have dropped in Austin. It’s not often a team goes from 8 wins to a losing season in its first year and it’s chalked up as an improvement. So how much did Charlie Strong improve this program in his first season last? Consider: after no Texas Longhorns were selected in the NFL 2014 draft for the first time since 1937, five were selected in this year’s draft, more than any team in the state of Texas (that means you Baylor and TCU). And by weeding out players who were impacting the squad in a negative way last year, Strong now has an iron grip on this program. 

On offense,  2nd-year QB Tyrone Swoops and all five OL starters return which should lead to improvement from last years 101st ranked rushing attack and 90th ranked passing attack. 

The defense needs to replace star DT Malcolm Brown (Rd 1 New England) and DE Cedric Reed (UDFA Buffalo) bu hope could be on the horizon with 5 star LB Malik Johnson showing promise during spring practices. .

Are there seven wins on the schedule or conversely 5 losses? Lets chalk up @ Baylor and @ TCU as losses. And I'll add the opener @ Notre Dame as a loss. The Oklahoma game is always a coin flip and the Horns get Kansas State at home but those are going to be tough outs. That means it could come down to an improving Cal team at home that decides whether Texas goes bowling this year. Charlie Strong is too good a coach to stay home during the post season but the schedule is full of land mines. I'll PASS

Texas Tech

There is a reason no players from the Texas Tech football team were selected in this year’s NFL Draft... the majority of the talent is back in 2015. A veteran secondary returns all four starters, while six of the top seven WR’s are back on offense, along with thousand yard rusher DeAndre Washington and star QB Davis Webb. 

Texas Tech is the epitome of Big 12 football - all offense - defense is optional. The Raid Raiders Kliff Kingsbury's team finished 5th overall in passing yards and are loaded for bear again this year.  Not only are the WRs back but all their leading rushers are back too. 

But what good is an offense if the defense lets up even more points. The rush defense really stunk up the joint allowing over 200 yards in every game but two and finishing 121st overall. Teams were able to go on glacially long drives keeping the TTU offense off the field. They were only able to hang on to the ball for 26 minutes per game (127th overall). Opposing coaches saw a good thing as every Red Raider opponent rushed the ball a minimum of 40 attempts during the 2014 season. 

Oh, and how about doing better with the penalty yards. The Red Raiders finished dead last with 89.2 yards per game. 

Can TTU make a 50% improvement in the in total and get to 6 games. The schedule finds the Red Raiders opening the season against five teams with winning records in 2014, and then closing out the campaign with five bowl teams in their final five games. THe first two games need to be lay ups with Sam Houston State and UTEP.  Then its three straight losses to @ Arkansas, Baylor and TCU. Then back to two wins with Iowa State and @ Kansas. With four wins in the bag they will need two more with @ Oklahoma, OK State, @ West Virginia, KSU and @ Texas. 

The defense needs too much improvement and new DC David Gibbs (formerly with Houston Cougars) is going to struggle. I'll take the UNDER

West Virginia

West Virginia played their toughest schedule in school history last season and managed to scratch and claw their way to a bowl game.Now csn they repeat? On offense,  JR QB Skyler Howard, who replaced an injured Clint Trickett in the Kansas State game and finished the remainder of the season, will be behind center. But he loses his best playmeker in WR Kevin White (Rd 1 Chicago). HC Dana Holgorsen has a pretty good track record in reloaidng on offense. WVU has averaged more than 4,000 passing yards per season under his watch. 

The defense has always been a sore spot though. Last year the improved from down right pathetic to not so bad finishing in the middle of the pack in most categories. One bright spot getting off the field on 3rd down as the 'Neers finished 9th. When the offense gets back on the field good things can happen. 

Vegas is expecting another good year, improving the win total by one to eight expected victories. Starting off with Georgia Southern is no gimme but Liberty is. The should get by Maryland too. The Big 12 schedule makers did WVU no favors by scheduling @ Baylor, @ TCU and @ Kansas State. If you assume those as losses then @ Oklahoma gets you a push on the under. I'll lean towrds that path and take the UNDER